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11月央行买断式逆回购加量续作5000亿元 持续向市场注入中期流动性
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 12:28
新华财经北京11月14日电 (刘润榕)11月14日,中国人民银行公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充裕, 11月17日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为6个月 (182天)。 "由此,着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势,央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性,有助 于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行,引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度 的同时,也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号,显示货币政策延续支持性立场。"王青称。 数据显示,11月6个月期买断式逆回购加量续作5000亿元,符合预期。此前,央行已于10月5日开展7000 亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期,结合当月7000亿到期量,11月3个月期买断式逆回购为等量续作。由 此,11月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购合计加量续作5000亿元,加量规模较上月高1000亿元,连续两个 月扩大,这也是央行连续第6个月通过买断式逆回购向市场注入中期流动性。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,其背后的主要原因在于,10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限 额,用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资,这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元 ...
8000亿元!央行将出手
证券时报· 2025-11-14 11:10
央行将开展8000亿元买断式逆回购! 11月14日,中国人民银行(下称"央行")发布预告称,将在17日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为6个月(182天)。综合11月操作量与到期量看,本次操作意味着当月央 行买断式逆回购将实现加量续作,累计净投放5000亿元。 自去年10月启用以来,央行持续开展买断式逆回购操作补充中长期资金缺口。为进一步提高买断式操作信息披 露的时效性,央行自今年6月起调整为操作前发布招标公告,明确操作日期和操作量等信息,稳定市场预期。 对于国债买卖操作,市场机构更看重央行重启操作的信号意义,预计央行通过买入国债大幅投放流动性的必要 性不强。光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭此前接受记者采访时表示,无论是否重启国债买卖,央行皆有能力 维护银行体系流动性的充裕。 责编:万健祎 校对: 许欣 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理,微信ID:SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资 ...
美国劳动力市场放缓
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 00:44
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are oscillating above $4,100, with signs of bottom - fishing allocation. The end of the US government shutdown and the potential December interest - rate cut will be points of long - short game. Short - term gold will continue to oscillate [2][11]. - The market for stock index futures is in weak oscillation. The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the full release of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have an impact on the market. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. - The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [3][17]. - The performance of US stock index futures is mixed. CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. - The bond market for treasury bond futures lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. - For black metals such as coking coal and coke, the spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][29]. - For agricultural products like edible oils, palm oil needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and rapeseed oil can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. - For red dates, the purchase price in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. - For steel products, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset [35][37]. - For cotton, the price in Brazil has reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. - For live pigs, the fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [43][44]. - For thermal coal, the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. - For polysilicon, it has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [53][54]. - For lead, the industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [56][57]. - For zinc, observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [60]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [66][67]. - For carbon emissions, the short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. - For pulp, the upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. - For container freight rates, it is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US continues to implement the trade negotiation agreement. The global largest gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.3 tons. Gold prices oscillated above $4,100. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy. 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully released. The market is in weak oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The French central bank expects the economy to grow slightly in Q4. The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 403.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 117.7 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November. The market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered to 53.1 bushels per acre. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan increased. The spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean crushing profit decreased. The palm oil market needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and the rapeseed oil market can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile production and sales increased in October. Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese H - shaped hot - rolled steel. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34][35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazilian cotton prices reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Zhongliang Jiajikang's live - pig sales volume increased by 25% in October. The fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [41][44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic thermal coal exists. The coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - CSN's Q3 iron ore sales reached a record high. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Many silicon wafer enterprises reduced prices. Polysilicon has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project is progressing orderly. It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory increased. The industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread increased. Observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to lower the 2026 nickel production target. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports decreased significantly in October. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US sanctions on a Russian oil company may affect European countries' inventory replenishment. Crude oil is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [65][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased. The short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hapag - Lloyd will impose a peak - season surcharge. It is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [71][72].
国债期货日报-20251111
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 10:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, and recommends holding medium - term long positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning, then declined, and maintained a narrow - range oscillation in the afternoon. Only TS slightly declined, while the rest slightly rose [1]. - The money market remained tight, with DR001 rising to 1.51%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [1]. Important News - The State Council General Office issued "Several Measures to Further Promote Private Investment". - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that it would create better development conditions for business entities [2]. Market Judgment - Today's news was light. The A - share market closed lower, and the bond market did not benefit significantly. - The money market remained tight. Despite increased open - market injections, money market rates continued to rise. The short - end yields of cash bonds rose slightly, while the medium - and long - end were less affected. - The market is not worried about liquidity but lacks trading hotspots. It is difficult to change the oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to monetary and credit data tomorrow [2]. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 11 Price | 2025 - 11 - 10 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 11 - 11 Position (Hand) | 2025 - 11 - 10 Position (Hand) | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.46 | 102.466 | - 0.006 | 85266 | 85232 | 34 | | TF2512 | 105.935 | 105.93 | 0.005 | 166730 | 172702 | - 5972 | | T2512 | 108.495 | 108.485 | 0.01 | 288671 | 291294 | - 2623 | | TL2512 | 116.34 | 116.3 | 0.04 | 183726 | 184847 | - 1121 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0211 | - 0.0267 | 0.0056 | TS Main Transaction (Hand) | 28422 | 24929 | 3493 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0235 | - 0.025 | 0.0015 | TF Main Transaction (Hand) | 48332 | 49109 | - 777 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0202 | 0.0205 | - 0.0003 | T Main Transaction (Hand) | 52193 | 58830 | - 6637 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1186 | 0.1987 | - 0.0801 | TL Main Transaction (Hand) | 73470 | 96097 | - 22627 | [5]
流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题:地方债还有什么机会
Minsheng Securities· 2025-11-11 03:10
Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's net investment in government bonds in October 2025 was 20 billion yuan, which is lower than the monthly net purchases in 2024, which ranged from 100 billion to 300 billion yuan [1][8] - Since June 2025, major banks have significantly increased their net purchases of government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with monthly net purchases exceeding 230 billion yuan [1][8] - The liquidity outlook remains relatively loose, with a weekly net payment of 369.2 billion yuan in government bonds, the highest in two months, despite low maturity amounts and the absence of tax periods [2][9] Group 2 - The sentiment in the secondary market for local government bonds has been positive since late October, with insurance and fund institutions being the main net buyers, particularly in the 15-20 year and 3-5 year maturities [2][18] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is currently less than one-fifth of the planned 500 billion yuan, with a focus on maturities that may widen the spread between local government bonds and national bonds [3][18] - The report highlights that the newly issued bonds in November have an implied tax rate of 3% or below, with many bonds deviating significantly from secondary market pricing [3][18]
国债期货日报:通胀优于预期,国债期货大多收涨-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is affected by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the increased uncertainty of foreign capital inflows due to rising global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI increased by 0.20% both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the monthly PPI rose 0.10% month - on - month and decreased 2.10% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (-1.61%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.62, up 0.05 (+0.05%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1203, down 0.004 (-0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, up 0.06 (+3.94%); DR007 was 1.50, up 0.09 (+6.11%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, up 0.00 (-0.24%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.00 (-0.24%) [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content provided other than the title. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation The main term repo rates (1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M) were 1.479%, 1.478%, 1.492%, and 1.525% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded. On November 10, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific content provided other than the title. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the title and related chart descriptions. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the title and related chart descriptions. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the title and related chart descriptions. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the title and related chart descriptions. Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Policy**: In October, there were multiple events including the US adding Chinese entities to the export control list, China's response on ship special port fees, Trump's tariff threat, the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading operation, and the consensus reached by the China - US economic and trade teams on three aspects. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on the US for one year and retain the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Fiscal Policy**: In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Super - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Policies such as consumer goods replacement, effective investment, and technological innovation had a synergistic amplification effect, and people's livelihood inputs continued to increase. In the next stage, active fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - **Central Bank Operation**: On November 10, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Market Conditions**: On November 10, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.47 yuan, 105.94 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 116.28 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.01%, and 0.22% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.008 yuan, - 0.015 yuan, - 0.044 yuan, and - 0.275 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the rebound of the repo rate and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
The reopening rally: Here's what you need to know
Youtube· 2025-11-10 20:29
Market Overview - NASDAQ experienced a rebound, increasing by 1.5% after a significant selloff that wiped out $800 billion in market cap last week [1] - Major tech stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Oracle, Meta, Palantir, Alphabet, and Amazon were notably affected during the selloff [1] Company Performance - Meta's stock is viewed as attractive despite a 22% decline from its recent 52-week high, attributed to increased capital expenditure [1] - Nvidia and Alphabet saw gains of approximately 4% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a recovery trend among major tech stocks [1] - Earnings reports from over 80% of companies have exceeded expectations, with year-over-year growth revised from 8% to 13% [1] AI Sector Insights - The AI trade is transitioning from being fueled by cash flow to being driven by debt, with companies increasingly issuing debt to finance operations [2] - There is a concern that pure play AI companies like OpenAI are not yet generating significant revenue, while cloud companies benefit from AI as a revenue stream [2] - The current market dynamics suggest that bond investors may soon demand tangible results from AI investments, which could impact funding for capital expenditures [3] Economic Factors - The government shutdown has created liquidity issues, affecting market volatility and investor sentiment [1][5] - The K-shaped economy is influencing consumer behavior, leading to a reactive market environment [5] - The potential resolution of the government shutdown is viewed positively, but concerns remain about the slower segments of the economy [5]
电解铝现货价格创年内新高水平:——金属周期品高频数据周报(2025.11.3-11.9)-20251110
EBSCN· 2025-11-10 07:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new high for the year at 21,580 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.31% and a profit estimate of 4,347 CNY/ton [3][12] - The report highlights a positive trend in liquidity, with the BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index rising to 52.41 in October, up 10.15% month-on-month [13][21] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing challenges, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area of 18.90% from January to September 2025 [25][80] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [13] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -1.2 percentage points in September, improving by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month [21] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in mid-October was 2.014 million tons [25] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces decreased by 0.80 percentage points [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel and aluminum prices increasing by 1.72% and 1.31%, respectively [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 was 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,058.17, reflecting a 3.60% increase [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.55, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent policy measures [4]
下周供给冲击再度到来,关注国债买入对冲规模
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-09 09:35
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].
流动性和机构行为跟踪:存单期限拉长,市场杠杆抬升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the funds remained stable with minor fluctuations. The central bank conducted precise adjustments to liquidity through "short - term withdrawal and long - term injection." The bond market entered an oscillation period again, and the yields of bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs) showed slight upward trends. The net financing of CDs decreased slightly, and the average issuance term increased. Next week, the net issuance and net payment of government bonds are expected to increase, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose slightly this week [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - **Fund prices**: This week, R001 closed at 1.39% (previous value: 1.41%), DR001 at 1.33% (previous value: 1.32%), R007 at 1.47% (previous value: 1.49%), and DR007 at 1.41% (previous value: 1.46%). The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day OMO was 1.30bp. The 6M national and share - holding bank acceptance bill transfer and discount rate was 0.61% (previous value: 0.20%) [1]. - **Central bank operations**: This week, the central bank's reverse repurchase issuance was 495.8 billion yuan, with 2,068 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net reverse repurchase withdrawal of 1,572.2 billion yuan. On November 5th, a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month term buy - out reverse repurchase operation was carried out, injecting medium - term liquidity into the market for the sixth consecutive month [1]. - **Bond market situation**: After the central bank announced the resumption of treasury bond trading last week, the market entered an oscillation phase again. This week, the central bank announced 20 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in October. With a relatively calm news background, the bond market entered an oscillation period again. Coupled with the good performance of the equity market, which still had an impact on the bond market, bond yields fluctuated slightly upward. The 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp to 1.40%, the 10 - year yield rose 1.88bp to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 1.50bp to 2.16% [2]. 2. Certificates of Deposit - **Yield changes**: This week, the 3M CD yield rose 0.50bp to 1.56%, the 6M yield rose 0.50bp to 1.60%, and the 1Y yield rose 0.25bp to 1.63%. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 widened by 2.71bp to 16.23bp [2]. - **Net financing and issuance term**: The net financing of CDs this week was 15.1 billion yuan (previous value: 17.06 billion yuan). The average issuance term increased, with a weighted average issuance term of 7.6M (previous value: 6.9M). The 3M CDs were issued at 5.99 billion yuan, 6M at 19.852 billion yuan, and 1Y at 12.917 billion yuan. The 1 - year CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.76%, and 1.72% respectively [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Government bond issuance and payment**: This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 22.58 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local government bonds was - 3.3641 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 19.22 billion yuan and a total net payment of 1.51 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected that the net issuance of treasury bonds will be 17.6 billion yuan, the net issuance of local government bonds will be 24.28 billion yuan, the net government bond financing will be 41.88 billion yuan, and the total net payment will be 41.92 billion yuan [3]. - **Inter - bank leverage ratio**: This week, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market was 7.97 trillion yuan (previous value: 6.70 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 108.06% (previous value: 107.66%) [3].