匿名用户提问： 巴菲特前四次每次大规模减持美股增持现金 美股都回调30%以上 这次是第五次 XX老师也说2026美股有冲顶的迹象 很可能要崩 美国失业率数据也一直上 升 对于一个靠消费来进行经济循环的国家来说，失业率上升是很致命的 叠加7姐妹的估值泡沫 如果美国2026经济衰退带来美股崩盘 势必带崩全球市场。 迅哥怎么看这个事情的概率。另外如果真的发生这种情况如何处理应对？ 回答： emmmm，怎么说呢？其实我觉得你可能是受到一些宏观派的影响太多了一些，尤其是你刚刚提到了某位老师。而且你的文字里面充满了宏大叙事和精妙 逻辑，基本上都是长长的逻辑链交织为主。 但是坦白说哈，这些逻辑我认为对投资实战来说是无用的。 首先，这些逻辑的出发点不是基于实战派的，而是基于理论派的。 大部分的理论派，比如卖方或者宏观经济学家，他们本质上是参谋这样的岗位，但他们的实际决策能力、对复杂局势的决断经验、对投资策略的具体把 握，实战方面是完全不足的。其实我挺喜欢看这些逻辑理论的，它增加了我的思考和发散的能力。但是一般到涉及到真正决策的时候，我一般都看实战派 的为主。真正的决策中，实战派的参考意见对我影响更大一些，其他人的意见我只会看 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.27 | 0.05 | DR007 | 1.45 | 0.48 | | | GC001 | 1.69 | 19.00 | GC007 | 1.57 | 2.00 | | 1 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.63 | -0.10 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.78 | -6.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.17 | -2.20 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1353亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量1353亿元,中 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 will continue to align with fiscal measures, supporting debt sustainability and fiscal health [2] - Interest rate cuts in 2026 may remain restrained due to reduced urgency from anti-involution trends [2] - The international economic struggle will have financial implications, particularly for the internationalization of the RMB amid intensified US-China tensions [2][13] Group 2: Misunderstandings about "Deposit Migration" - There are three main misunderstandings regarding "deposit migration": underestimating excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [3][15] - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed one trillion yuan, driven by a significant increase in excess savings [3][15] - The speed of funds entering the market may be underestimated due to reliance on non-bank deposit tracking, which does not accurately reflect the migration of household funds [3][15] Group 3: Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) Insights - Huahai Pharmaceutical integrates raw materials and formulations, establishing a solid foundation for growth, with a projected revenue of 5.759 billion yuan in 2024 [4][14] - The company is focusing on innovative drug development in immunology and oncology, with over 70 patents filed and several projects in clinical stages [4][18] - The target market capitalization for Huahai Pharmaceutical is estimated at 34.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30.04% [4][18] Group 4: Zhongxin Innovation (03931) Overview - Zhongxin Innovation is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries, with a revenue of 16.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The company is expanding its market share and enhancing its product offerings, with a focus on high-end battery products and a global production network [19][20] - The projected net profit for Zhongxin Innovation is expected to grow significantly, reaching 3.84 billion yuan by 2027 [20]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年大类资产在"叙事抱团"下，呈现新老资产极致分化。全年来看，黄金领涨大类资产，位于风险收益比顶端。全球股强债弱，股市新兴强于发达。商品 中有色亮眼，显著领跑黑色与原油。从资产轮动来看，上半年反复反转，下半年持续单边。简单的多资产年度再平衡策略（非买入持有）虽连续第三年正收益，但 在大类资产排序中明显落后于多数股市表现，仅高于中美债券、美元与原油。2025年趋势跟踪策略（CTA）表现持续优于均值回归策略。临近岁末，前期强叙事资 产的赔率多数走窄，叙事交易的"阿喀琉斯之踵"似有浮现，而这是2026年与2025年资产截然不同的起点。 第二， 2025年的资产轮动框架亦不同于以往。经典框架里，无论是理论视角的美林时钟、普林格时钟，还是实证领域的检验（Beber, Brandt & Kavajecz, 2010； Goulding, C. L., 2023），均指向资产轮动与经济周期密切相关。2025年全球宏观环境变化较大，"叙事交易"具备短期难以证伪的胜率预期，改变了大类资产与经 济周期"四 ...

预计2025-2027年全球GDP增速高于市场一致预期，流动性已提前释放且财政接力，大美丽法案逐步实 施正向影响较大，经济深度衰退概率低；美国零售与就业数据稳健，消费动能仍在。对久期债券相对谨 慎，对信用债保持中性，美元长期仍看空，黄金仍看好，继续看好全球股票。中国资产处于外资低配状 态，估值吸引力上升，若情绪趋稳存在回补空间，投资者可考虑减美国资产、增欧洲和亚洲资产，中国 台湾和韩国也有结构性机会。 多资产 债券-利率债&信用债 今年十年国债1.65%-1.90%区间波动，7-9月债大幅度调整，随后小幅走多，目前到了均衡位。市场以看 多和中性观点为主，年末抢跑或导致利率下行但空间受限。央行下场买债，地产与基建实物量持续低于 预期，社融信贷同步走弱，货币宽松未转向，为债市提供下行保护。机构行为来看，银行理财突破32万 亿，固收类理财偏好信用票息；二级债基热销，ETF持续吸金，主动债基赎回明显；公募销售新规未落 地，或有赎回扰动。 地产基建数据持续下行，基建实物量远落后往年且11月季节性下滑，地产投资加速下行，一线二手房挂 牌激增、新房集中处置冲击情绪，30城成交仍低、居民房贷负增长，12月会议难见强刺激。财政 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国初请失业金人数大幅上升，9月贸易逆差显著收窄，10月JOLTs职位空缺数超预期。②日本第三季度GDP终值超预期下 修。③欧央行行长拉加德称，欧元区在面对美国关税攻势时展现出超出预期的韧性。 1、美国零售销售回落 。12月5日当周，美国红皮书商业零售同比降至5.7%，前一周为7.6%。 2、地产：美国抵押贷款利率回升，抵押贷款申请数量回升 。12月11日，美国30年期抵押贷款利率6.22%，前一周为6.19%，前两周为6.23%。12月5 日当周，美国MBA市场综合指数（反映抵押贷款申请数量情况）升至327.9，环比前一周上涨4.8%。 四、物价 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、地产（房贷申请数量回升）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零售同比边 际回落）、物价（大宗价格回落、美国汽油零售价回落）、就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日元兑美元 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月15日，在全球主要央行政策逐步分化的背景下，市场正密切关注日本央行即将到来的利率决策。若 基准利率上调至0.75%，不仅刷新近30年的高位，也意味着低成本日元资金时代正在发生实质性变化。 RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，这一转折，对依赖流动性的风险资产而言并非中性。 从历史走势看，日元汇率变化与比特币价格之间存在明显的相关性。日元走强往往意味着全球资金成本 上升，流动性收紧，而比特币作为高流动性敏感资产，通常会率先承压。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示， 目前日元维持在相对强势区间，本身已对市场情绪形成一定约束。 在套利交易层面，日本长期的低利率环境曾为全球资金提供稳定"融资货币"。一旦利率抬升，借入日 元、配置高风险资产的策略吸引力下降，部分资金可能被迫降低杠杆或回补头寸，从而通过股票市场传 导至加密资产。 不过，RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，本轮加息未必完全复制以往的冲击路径。一方面，市场对日元的预 期已提前反映在持仓结构中，短期恐慌性平仓的空间有限；另一方面，日本债券收益率此前已显著上 行，本次加息更多是政策"补课"，而非突然转向。 与此同 ...

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is overall balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 6047 billion yuan through open market operations, including a 47 billion yuan net injection from 7-day reverse repos and a 6000 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo [3][9][10] - The social financing scale increased significantly in November, reaching 24885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month. The main contributors were government bonds and corporate bonds, while non-standard financing turned positive [10][11][14] - The money supply indicators M1 and M2 continued to decline year-on-year, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 8% in November, both showing a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [10][11][14] Group 2 - The supply side of the stock market shows structural differentiation, with a decline in equity fund issuance and a slight recovery in financing balance, indicating an increase in leveraged funds' participation. The net inflow of financing was concentrated in sectors like electronics and defense, while sectors like computers and automobiles experienced net outflows [4][19][30] - The stock market's demand side pressure has eased, with a decrease in equity financing scale and a drop in the scale of locked-up shares released, amounting to 414.42 billion yuan, down from 786.35 billion yuan the previous week [30][35][39] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in November was 238.1 million, an increase from 230.9 million in the previous month, indicating a slight uptick in market participation [19][27]

观点回顾：以机构心态视角来看，年末对收益的诉求普遍偏弱， 明年一季度理财类机构和保险机构存在抢筹的意愿。年内债市行情限 于区间震荡的局面可能不易改变，年末时点存在提前抢筹、行情升温 的契机。 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-15 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债务周期"出清阶段"，政策组合延 续——中央经济工作会议点评 20251212》 - 2025.12.12 固收周报 年初资金面会收紧吗？ ——流动性周报 20251214 l 流动性走势决定权的筹码又在向央行集中 降准降息未至，止盈操作已至，然而这并不难理解，年末机构普 遍没有过多收益诉求。我们在报告《年末机构行为百态》中提到，"这 一心态，在一个问题上体现最为明确，即在降息出现的应对上，债市 投资者的一致预期是不期待近期可能出现降息机会，如果出现意外降 息，会选择以卖出来应对"。 在路演和交流中，我们还实实在在感受到投资者对于年初资金面 的担忧。多数投资者担忧的理由是，年初信贷投放可能会季节性偏高， 资金面的波动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a small net capital injection, and the 6M repurchase in December had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale decreased, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased on average, and the median duration of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds changed. Tax - period disturbances may hinder the decline of overnight funding rates [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 470 million yuan. In December, the 6M repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. From December 15 - 19, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 66.85 billion yuan will mature, 40 billion yuan of 6M repurchases will mature, and 60 billion yuan will be issued. The decrease in net repurchase injection in December may be due to banks' preference for 1 - year policy tools [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.2 and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to December 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.1 and 0.6 basis points respectively. The overnight rate DR001 dropped below 1.30%. However, due to the tax - period payment disturbance after December 15, overnight funding rates may face volatility [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 1.48 billion yuan, 17.18 billion yuan less than December 1 - 7. From December 15 - 21, the expected net payment scale is - 8.394 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield and Curve**: As of December 12, 2025, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.6150%, up 3.6 and 0.0 basis points respectively from December 5. The 1Y yield was 1.6600%, up 0.5 basis points from November 28. The decline in certificate of deposit rates was hindered by weak bond market sentiment and limited impact of marginal changes in funding on pricing [8]. - **Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 12.06 billion yuan. From December 15 - 21, the expected maturity repayment amount is 106.29 billion yuan, with high roll - over pressure [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, up from 107.56% in December 1 - 5 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On December 12, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.44 years week - on - week, reaching the 92.6% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.30 years week - on - week, at the 18.2% quantile [9].