Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that glass prices may remain weakly oscillating in the short - term, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds. It attributes this to the potential contraction of supply due to some production lines' cold - repair plans, but the demand decline in the real - estate sector is expected to be more significant, with the contraction of production capacity possibly falling short of the demand drop. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货市场**：The glass futures main contract oscillated downward during the day, showing a short - term weakly oscillating signal. The trading volume decreased by 7.1 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 6,499 lots. The intraday high was 1,072, the low was 1,055, and the closing price was 1,056, down 34 yuan/ton or 3.12% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **现货市场**：The market in North China was sluggish with weak transactions; in East China, it was stable, with improved shipments in Shandong but restricted shipments in Anhui due to snow; in Central China, there was little fluctuation and weak shipments due to weather; in South China, it was stable, with downstream rush - work but average inventory - stocking willingness [1]. - **基差**：The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of - 36 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **供应方面**：As of January 15, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.0523 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, but one previously ignited production line started producing glass, and with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2]. - **库存方面**：The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and there is still an expectation of further decline [2]. - **需求方面**：The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with an increase in the executable order days in the south and a decline in the north and central regions [2][3]. - **利润方面**：The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3]. Main Logic Summary The long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, the real - estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, glass factory orders are limited, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there are still cold - repair expectations for a few production lines, the contraction of production capacity may be less than the decline in demand. It is advisable to short on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides comprehensive data on the lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and cost - profit information. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 81.8%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 96.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Indicators**: The main contract's closing price is 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,240 yuan (8.99%) and a weekly decrease of 6,480 yuan (-3.88%). The trading volume is 451,074 lots, with a daily increase of 121,948 lots (37.05%) and a weekly decrease of 157,103 lots (-25.83%). The open interest is 415,351 lots, with a daily increase of 4,020 lots (0.98%) and a weekly decrease of 44,930 lots (-9.76%) [3]. - **Spread Data**: LC2605 - LC2607 is -860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (59.26%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (38.71%); LC2605 - LC2609 is -1,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 640 yuan (-31.37%) and a weekly decrease of 820 yuan (-36.94%); LC2607 - LC2609 is -540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 960 yuan (-64.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1,060 yuan (-66.25%) [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 27,681 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots (-0.06%) and a weekly increase of 783 lots (2.91%) [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is priced at 4,710 yuan/ton (no daily change), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) is 8,295 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 70 yuan, 0.85%), lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) is 14,075 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 125 yuan, 0.90%), etc. [20]. - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 1.02%), battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 0.99%), etc. [20]. - **Cell Materials**: Energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,740 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.66%), power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,140 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.67%), etc. [21]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.961, with a daily decrease of 0.0031 (-0.04%) [21]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton (no change), the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is -12,800 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,680 yuan, 15.11%), etc. [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main continuous contract basis and near - month contract basis of lithium carbonate are presented in historical trend charts [30][31]. - **Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., for the LC2601 contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32]. - **Warehouse Receipt Seasonality**: The lithium carbonate warehouse receipt seasonality chart is shown, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 27,698 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots [34][35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - **Production Profits**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented in trend charts [37]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are shown in trend charts [38][40].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on January 20, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, while coking coal dropped by over 4%. Different futures varieties have different market trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and risk control [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose by over 3%, PTA rose by over 2%, and Shanghai gold and palladium rose by nearly 2%. In terms of declines, coking coal dropped by over 4%, coke and glass dropped by over 3%. Stock index futures generally declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:23 on January 20, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2604 had an inflow of 7.055 billion yuan, carbonate lithium 2605 had an inflow of 1.34 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an inflow of 1.335 billion yuan. Shanghai silver 2604 had an outflow of 1.711 billion yuan, iron ore 2605 had an outflow of 579 million yuan, and live pigs 2603 had an outflow of 365 million yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened further. Refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Downstream demand is weak, but short - term declines do not represent long - term trends. The market is currently in a high - level consolidation stage, and the medium - to - long - term is bullish [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium opened low and moved higher, rising nearly 9%. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit range and margin standards. Although the fundamental trend has weakened, the demand for energy - storage batteries remains strong. The overall situation of carbonate lithium remains bullish, but the authenticity of market rumors needs to be carefully verified [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as the situation in Iran and the US - India relationship regarding oil imports, still affect the market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has seen a slight increase in the operating rate, and the expected production in January has decreased. The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries has continued to rise. The situation in Venezuela has affected the supply of heavy - oil raw materials for domestic refineries. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [15]. - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has declined slightly, and the enterprise operating rate has also decreased. The cost side has been affected by the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in oil prices. The supply has increased with new capacity coming on stream, and the demand is limited before the Spring Festival. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in a range [17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate of plastic has increased, while the downstream operating rate has declined. The cost side is affected by the Iranian situation, and new capacity has been put into production. With the decline in agricultural film orders, it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is basically stable, and the downstream operating rate has declined. The export has increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance has increased. The social inventory is still high, and it is expected that the 03 - 05 contracts will fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved lower. The supply has increased, and the inventory has been transferred from upstream to downstream. The downstream iron - water production has decreased slightly, but the steel mills still have a demand for raw materials during the winter - storage period. The coking coal price has support at the bottom [21][22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved lower. The supply is stable, and the downstream winter - storage is mostly over. The inventory has been reduced, and it is expected that the urea price will slow down its decline, fluctuate, and then show a bullish trend [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current slaughter rhythm of large-scale farms is normal, but the slaughter in some areas is affected by snowfall. After the New Year's Day, the demand for curing decreases, and the terminal consumption tolerance is limited after the recent increase in spot prices. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined from the high level. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. Overall, the price increase has led to a decrease in procurement by slaughtering enterprises, and the spot price of live pigs has stagnated and adjusted. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the game will intensify. On the futures market, due to the slowdown of capacity reduction and the year - end inventory data, the market sentiment is weak, the live pig 2603 contract has fallen by 2.53%, the center of the oscillation range has continued to move down, and the futures performance is weaker than the spot [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs is 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan; the main contract position is 144,103 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 433 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 48,591 lots, an increase of 704 lots [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 1,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7,130,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month is 0.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,369.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 906.92, an increase of 0.48; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,431 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39,570,000 heads, an increase of 1,230,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the national average price of piglets was 23.39 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 29.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The prices in 29 monitored provinces across the country declined. Among them, the month - on - month decline in Northeast China was relatively large, with Liaoning leading the decline at 11.3%. In terms of price levels, the average price of piglets in South China was the highest at 27.89 yuan/kg, and the lowest in North China at 21.85 yuan/kg [2]

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点评 19 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8845/吨，日内涨幅 1.6%，持仓减 仓 3702 手至 23.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 5 元/吨。多 晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50505 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.63%，持仓减仓 1649 手至 44571 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格降至 55000 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格 55000 元/吨，现货升水收至 4495 元/吨。西南除自 备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和供给 端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力叠加 反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料强势 挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓解组 件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶硅端 减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面回涨无力、平稳运行，现货报价 或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读 ...

Group 1 - The main futures contracts in the domestic market showed mixed results on January 20, 2026, with lithium carbonate hitting the limit up with an increase of 8.99% [3][7][9] - Other notable increases included Shanghai silver and tin rising over 3%, while PTA increased by over 2% [3][7] - In contrast, coking coal fell by over 4%, and both coking coal and glass dropped by over 3% [3][7] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate main contract saw a trading volume of 451,074 with a daily increase in open interest of 4,020 [4][8] - Coking coal's latest price was 1,124.0, reflecting a decrease of 4.50%, with a trading volume of 1,088,174 [9] - The social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons [5][9] Group 3 - The market is currently focused on supply-side disruptions, particularly in Jiangxi, where stricter environmental regulations are being implemented [5][9] - The industrial waste treatment costs are rising, potentially leading to the exit of smaller production capacities that cannot bear these costs [5][9] - Despite the lack of clear negative feedback in demand, the prevailing strategy remains to buy on dips, while caution is advised regarding market volatility and position disturbances [5][9]

南华期货（603093）表示，锡价在资金情绪消退及估值过高等利空因素下快速回调，但底部支撑较强， 供给端缅甸复产不及预期，印尼难以保持高位，需求端短期难见负反馈，预计锡价维持高位宽幅震荡。 铜冠金源期货分析称，，市场交投热情降温，同时周度社会库存大幅增加至万吨以上，多头资金持续离 场，锡价大幅调整。不过随着风险集中释放，以及美元承压，锡价在10日均线附近获得弱反弹支撑。当 前基本面逻辑变化不大，原料端供应延续强现实弱预期，继续支撑锡价，但高价负反馈凸显，累库压力 施压锡价。短期锡价走势回归理性，预计高位宽幅震荡，等待更多消息指引。 五矿期货指出，锡供需边际好转，短期累库趋势或对价格持续施压，叠加投机资金退潮，锡价或继续震 荡下跌。操作方面，建议观望为主。国内主力合约参考运行区间：360000-400000元/吨，海外伦锡参考 运行区间：46000-50000美元/吨。 1月20日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报381840.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪锡主力最高触及404400.00元，下方探低381100.00元，涨幅达 2.26%。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-20 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15745元/吨，较前一日变动-90元/吨；NR主力合约12655元/吨，较前一日变动-90 元/吨；BR主力合约11605元/吨，较前一日变动-210元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15500元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1900美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1825 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署1月14日公布的数据显示，2025年12月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计95.3万吨，较2024 年同期的80.5万吨增加18.4%。2025年中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计852.5万吨，较2024年的730.3万吨增 加16.7%。 2025年12月我国汽车产销分别完成329.6万辆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with previous long positions advised to take appropriate profit and exit [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand for asphalt is weak, with local spot prices falling The overall cost side of asphalt still has support, but the weak terminal demand and the wide availability of alternative raw materials will limit the upward space of the market [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On January 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2603 in the afternoon session was 3,142 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 0.29% The open interest was 191,534 lots, down 2,331 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 124,762 lots, down 7,088 lots [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt were: Northeast 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,010 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, asphalt spot prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Shandong and East China fell, and prices in other regions remained basically stable Weather factors restricted the release of rigid demand for asphalt, but the supply side was still supported due to the limited circulation of some asphalt brands [2] - The market is pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply and has entered a volatile stage If Venezuelan crude oil originally flowing to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the United States, domestic refineries will need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after consuming inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, previous long positions should take appropriate profit and exit; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core View - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with various data in the futures and spot markets experiencing fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,610 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The trading volume was 216,355 lots, a decrease of 131,826 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 186,443 lots, a decrease of 4,496 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,500 tons to 109,890 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,064 lots to 39,694 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was -245 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was -895 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 40 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - disk quotation remained unchanged at 2,160 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 5 US dollars/ton respectively [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 10 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67 tons, or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.42% to 9.95 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.26% to 48.54 tons. The inbound rate and outbound rate of bonded and general trade warehouses both increased [2] Supply Situation - Enterprises adjust production schedules flexibly according to their own inventory, shipments, and orders. Some enterprises that limited production last week may increase production this week, while others may moderately reduce production due to shipment pressure. Overall, the supply side fluctuates slightly, and the shipment of some enterprises in Shandong has slowed down due to weather [4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1]