Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 21, most equity index futures and CGB futures traded higher, while commodities showed mixed performance. Lithium carbonate, tin, and gold led the rises, while glass, sodium hydroxide, and coking coal led the declines [11][12][13] - The U.S. Trade Representative hopes to launch a new round of trade negotiations with China [40][41] - Shanghai plans to gradually include qualified non - ferrous metal futures and options varieties in the scope of opening - up to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities [42][43][45] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 21, in equity index futures, IC rose 1.9% and IH rose 1.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.75% and TS dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, lithium carbonate rose 7.3% with open interest increasing 3.0% month - on - month, tin gained 5.8% with open interest decreasing 3.6% month - on - month, and gold advanced 3.7% with open interest increasing 11.5% month - on - month. The top three decliners were glass (down 2.3% with open interest increasing 2.6% month - on - month), sodium hydroxide (down 2.0% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and coking coal (down 1.8% with open interest decreasing 3.2% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On January 21, gold rose 3.7% to 1,092.30 yuan/g. Driven by Greenland - related tensions and tariff threats on the 20th, both domestic and international gold prices surged, with COMEX gold briefly breaking through $4,750. Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold also supported the price. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust gold futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22. Short - term, watch the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff case, Greenland - related developments, and the new Federal Reserve Chair nomination [17][19][22] - **Platinum**: On January 21, platinum rose 2.5% to 628.50 yuan/g. Heavy rainfall in South Africa may impact supply, and geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have flared up. The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair and U.S. tariffs on platinum and palladium are also factors. Short - term, platinum prices may fluctuate. In the future, supply risks from South Africa remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [25][26][28] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Silver**: On January 21, silver dropped 0.1% to 23,131 yuan/kg. After hitting record highs intraday, silver prices retreated, and short - term high - level volatility risks increased. Besides the boost from the 20th's events, downward pressures such as high volatility, low short - term lease rates, and tariff suspension on critical minerals are building up. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust silver futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22 [34][35][36] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the U.S. hopes to launch another potential round of trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested referring the question to the competent Chinese authorities [40][41] 2.2 Industry News - Shanghai issued an action plan to strengthen futures - spot market linkage and enhance the competitiveness of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities. It aims to expand the high - level institutional opening - up of the non - ferrous metal futures market, gradually include qualified varieties in the scope of opening - up, and improve relevant business rules. It also encourages exploration of cross - border delivery mechanism innovation to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities and the "Shanghai Price" [42][43][45]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices have been declining, breaking through key levels of $4820, $4810, $4800, and $4790 per ounce, with a daily drop of 0.98% [1][6] - Spot gold has also fallen, losing the same key price points, with a daily decline of 0.86% [1][6] - Spot silver and New York silver futures are experiencing adjustments, with spot silver dropping below $93, $92, and $91 per ounce, showing a maximum daily decline of 3.74% [1][6] - New York silver futures have also fallen below the corresponding levels, with a maximum daily drop of 3.87% [1][6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. natural gas futures have seen a significant increase, with daily gains expanding from 3% to over 30%, currently reported at $5.083 per million British thermal units [2][7] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, along with a 6.2 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories, while distillate inventories decreased by 33,000 barrels [2][7] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - U.S. President Trump stated at the Davos Forum that he expects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, claiming that the current decline in the stock market is "insignificant" and that U.S. stocks will double in the future [3][8] - Trump revealed that the selection for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to two or three candidates, all of whom will be "male" [4][9] - Additionally, Trump mentioned that a framework agreement has been reached with NATO regarding cooperation on Greenland, which will cancel the tariffs originally set to take effect on February 1 [5][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 21, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Prices showed a pattern of opening low and closing high. In 2026, smelter profits have narrowed, and the supply of refined copper is expected to decline in January. The downstream demand is weak, but policy subsidies and the New Year peak season may improve the situation. The increase in copper prices before the Spring Festival is limited without significant positive stimuli [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices opened low and went high, showing an overall upward trend. The exchange adjusted the trading rules. Although the fundamentals are weakening, the demand for energy - storage batteries is still strong. With the expected resumption of production and strong export demand, the strong trend continues [10]. - **Stainless Steel and Platinum**: Rose more than 2% on January 21, but no detailed analysis provided in the report [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold futures had significant capital inflows, while silver futures had capital outflows. Gold prices rose more than 3% on January 21 [5][6]. - **Tin**: Rose more than 5% on January 21, but no detailed analysis provided in the report [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the US crude inventory increased. Although the demand concern has eased, the global crude oil supply is still in a surplus situation. Geopolitical risks such as the situations in Iran and Venezuela need to be monitored, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a relatively low level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply of domestic refineries. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level, and the supply has increased with new capacity. The cost has decreased due to the easing of the Iranian situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a relatively high level, but the downstream demand is weak, especially for agricultural films. With new capacity coming on - stream, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][18]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The export situation is affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates. The inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the 03 - 05 contracts [19]. - **Urea**: The price opened high and went high. The supply is stable, and the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizer factories is increasing. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [22]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream. The downstream demand is mainly supported by winter storage. The price is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. - **Futures Index Contracts**: The performance of stock index futures and bond futures varied. The IF and IC and IM contracts rose, while the IH contract fell slightly. Among bond futures, the TS contract fell slightly, and the TF, T, and TL contracts rose [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is volatile, with potential price increases in the medium - to - long - term due to strong terminal demand for domestic energy storage projects. The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term but with limited upside. The industrial silicon market has a high inventory and weak demand, and its price may decline [1][7][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 3.89% to 166,740 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the new energy vehicle sales from January 1st - 11th dropped significantly, the "rush to export" behavior of downstream lithium carbonate enterprises and the resumption of production by some phosphate - iron - lithium enterprises increased demand. On the supply side, some lithium mines in Yichun are facing license replacement and production suspension, causing concerns about supply stability. Most of the inventory is in the hands of traders, and the inventory of smelters and downstream enterprises is low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious in the short - term, wait for the market to stabilize and then buy at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 fell 1.97% to 49,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - **Core Logic**: Some leading polysilicon enterprises plan to stop production, and the output in February is expected to decline. The demand is expected to increase due to the increase in the production schedule of cells and components from January to February. However, the market will return to cost - based trading after the anti - monopoly news, and high inventory will suppress prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 48,670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent policies of "anti - involution" [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 rose 0.40% to 8,780 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [15]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is decreasing as the southwest production area has a low operating rate and the northwest production area has frequent production - cut news. The demand is weak, and the overall inventory is at a five - year high, so the price may decline [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market is controlled by short - sellers. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract show certain trends, with a long - short dividing line of 8,605 yuan/ton [15]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell short when the price is high. Refer to the band winner indicator during the 8:30 live broadcast [15].

市场看空心态明显，价格恐难有反弹空间。短期SH2603预计偏弱波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 1939 | -21 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 260393 | 6766 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30321 | 378 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 420709 | -129825 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -11 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2391 | | 2144 | -29 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 378 | -30321 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区( ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力不减，郑糖弱势整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14525元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15557元/吨，较前一日变动-26元/吨，现货基差CF05+1032，较前一日变动-6；3128B棉全国均价15856元/吨， 较前一日变动-24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1331，较前一日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，2025年12月中国进口棉花17.73万吨，巴西棉进口稳居第一，进口10.67万吨，同比增3.1万吨，环比 增3.9万吨；其次澳棉进口3.69万吨，同比略增0.3万吨，环比略降0.2万吨；中亚棉进口1.22万吨，同比变动不大， 环比增0.6万吨，其余国家进口量均在1万吨以下。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，1月USDA下调全球棉花产量和期末库存，数据调整整体偏多。不过当前北半 球新棉大量上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美 棉预计仍将承压。中长期看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide limited support, and in the short term, it follows the fluctuations of the cost side. The market has returned to fundamental trading, and it may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,640 yuan/ton (-27), and that of the PP main contract is 6,461 yuan/ton (-21). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,540 yuan/ton (-120), and in East China is 6,700 yuan/ton (-30). The spot price of PP in East China is 6,410 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is -100 yuan/ton (-93), in East China is 60 yuan/ton (-3), and that of PP in East China is -51 yuan/ton (+21) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 186.2 yuan/ton (-103.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -373.8 yuan/ton (-103.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -628.5 yuan/ton (-46.1) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 122.9 yuan/ton (-117.3), the PP import profit is -406.7 yuan/ton (-153.0), and the PP export profit is -57.9 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have entered a volatile phase after falling from high levels. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the market trades on the weak PE fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase steadily as there are few short - term planned maintenance of existing devices, some previously shut - down devices plan to resume production, and some full - density devices return to producing standard products. The demand shows off - season characteristics, with the overall downstream operating rate declining, and downstream factories may be less willing to replenish inventory at high prices. The inventory has been transferred from producers to middle - stream traders, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [3] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested and due to the weak demand in the off - season, the market has corrected from high levels. The supply side has few new short - term maintenance, but the PDH is in deep loss, and some devices have maintenance expectations. The demand was boosted during the previous price increase as downstream enterprises replenished inventory, but now the downstream is in the off - season, and the resistance to high prices has increased, with limited new orders. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of oil - based production has decreased, while the PDH - based cost still provides support [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are both rated neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [5] - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5] - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of refined nickel and stainless steel is oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction of nickel lies in the continuous tug - of - war between "strong expectations" and "high inventory + weak reality", while that of stainless steel is the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand [1][3][4]. - The short - term nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton, and stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 142,500 yuan/ton and closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 695,146 (-254,226) lots, and the open interest was 79,005 (-4,205) lots. It showed a trend of wide - range oscillation after a high opening and a decline in the late session, affected by macro - sentiment, supply - demand expectations, and external market linkage. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85% and a year - on - year increase of 24%. Other unwrought non - alloy nickel imports were 16,177 tons, accounting for 69% of refined nickel imports [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The sentiment in the nickel ore market heated up. The tender price of Philippine mines jumped significantly, and the domestic mainstream grade quotation quickly followed. The CIF quotation of 1.4% grade nickel ore has risen to about 53 US dollars. The Indonesian market is temporarily stable after the previous benchmark price adjustment, and the official benchmark price in February is expected to increase by about 3 US dollars [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 150,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand of refined nickel was slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 400 yuan/ton to 8,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,478 (-320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,736 (-972) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to the possible recurrence of Indonesia's nickel ore policy and the rainy season in Indonesia in the first quarter, the nickel cost is supported to run at a high level. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premium, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand [3]. - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,300 yuan/ton and closed at 14,345 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 296,762 (+9,074) lots, and the open interest was 145,198 (-4,171) lots. It followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up. The core contradiction lies in the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand, and it is also affected by macro - sentiment and inventory pattern [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream demand is weak as it is the pre - Spring Festival ending stage. High prices suppress procurement, and the inventory digestion rhythm slows down. The quotations of traders are slightly adjusted after rising with the futures market. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,350 (+50) yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 14,250 (+100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 85 to 285 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - In the short term, the high inventory and weak spot demand form a long - short contradiction with the rising cost and macro - policies. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's mining policy, the recovery rhythm of downstream demand, and inventory changes [4]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral; Mid - term: Downward for single - side trading [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 20, 2026, domestic LPG spot prices generally declined, and the overall market atmosphere was weak. Although the external market was relatively strong, the domestic market was restricted by multiple factors. PDH and other downstream chemical device profits were under pressure due to rising costs, and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppressed the PG market. Additionally, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbed the market, especially after the main contract switched to the 03 contract [1]. - In the medium term, the overseas supply growth trend will continue, with potential increases in supply from the Middle East and the United States. The global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the market's internal upward driving force is limited. However, if the Iranian geopolitical situation further escalates and causes LPG supply disruptions, it could lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the spot prices in different regions were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4410 yuan/ton; East China market, 4270 - 4370 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 5030 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4840 - 4970 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 608 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 601 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton, and butane was 4632 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 589 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and butane was 584 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4554 yuan/ton, unchanged, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy - Single - side trading: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; Mid - term downward. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with significant price support due to the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may boost short - term export rush demand but could overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, with downstream capacity accelerating to clear out [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,815 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.4)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 224,552 lots. On January 19, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 11,571 lots, a change of 288 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1] Consumption End - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon production cuts continued this week, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. However, the short - term photovoltaic export rush may boost industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon continued the peak - shifting emission reduction policy and self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and subsequent开工 was expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum expectations to the demand side [2] Supply End - On the same day, a large factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts, and the planned production in January was expected to decline significantly, which had a positive impact on industrial silicon prices. If the production cuts are effective, the supply side of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and inventory will shift from accumulation to reduction [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the polysilicon futures main contract 2605 oscillated upward, opening at 50,650 yuan/ton and closing at 50,700 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 43,632 (44,571 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 10,115 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.50 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3] - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 32.10 (with a month - on - month change of 6.29%), silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW (with a month - on - month change of - 5.53%), polysilicon weekly output was 21,500 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 9.66%), and silicon wafer output was 10.83GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.95%) [3] Product Prices - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]