Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On November 3, 2025, the three major A-share indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29% to 3196.87 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1071 trillion yuan, a decrease of 210.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on November 3, closing at 4653.40, a rise of 12.73 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 3, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1800.0, a decrease of 20.6 [3]. - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow consolidation on November 3, closing at 1299.8 yuan, a decrease of 11.6 [4]. - Coke: Supply recovery is limited due to environmental protection, maintenance, and limited profits. Demand is strong as coke enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and most steel mills are purchasing as needed. Inventory is at a low level. The fundamentals are strong [5]. - Coking coal: The second round of price increases for coke has been partially implemented, and the third round is expected to be implemented strongly. The price of coking coal has risen to a new high this year. Supply is tight [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors, ICE sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Friday. The new sugar of Mengpeng Sugar Factory of Yunnan Yingmao Sugar Industry is on the market, with a price of 5700 yuan/ton in the Kunming market. Supported by factors such as the rebound of ICE sugar and the strong price of new sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated upward on Monday [5]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly lower on Monday. Affected by the significant increase in the total inventory of rubber in Qingdao Port last week, the bears pressured the night - session of Shanghai rubber to fluctuate slightly lower. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a rise of 3.57% [6]. Soybean Meal - On November 3, the international CBOT soybean reached a 16 - month high. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3026 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.71%. The current strength of the domestic soybean meal futures market is mainly due to the rising import cost driven by the continuous rise of US soybeans. The upward momentum may weaken in the future [8]. Live Pigs - On November 3, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. The supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the short - term support for pig prices has weakened. The situation of "supply exceeding demand" has not changed fundamentally [9]. Palm Oil - On November 3, the palm oil futures continued to be under selling pressure, and the main contract P2601 closed down 1.14%. As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 2.36% week - on - week but increased by 17.29% year - on - year [9]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2512 main contract oscillated. The trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating that the bulls' willingness to close positions increased. The macro - face and fundamentals are both weak, and it is under pressure at a historical high [10]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton on the night of Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 80 lots compared with the previous trading day. The new cotton warehousing has accelerated, and the inventory at ports has increased. The average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 3 was 6.30 yuan/kg [11][12]. Logs - The 2601 contract of logs opened at 788, closed at 782, and increased in positions by 1243 lots on November 3. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [13]. Iron Ore - On November 3, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.82%, closing at 782.5 yuan. The supply pressure has eased, but the iron - making output has decreased, and the price is in an oscillating trend [13]. Asphalt - On November 3, the asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down 0.58%, at 3233 yuan. The utilization rate of asphalt production capacity increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released, and the price mainly follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates [13]. Steel - On November 3, rb2601 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3295 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is difficult to rise further in early November, and the supply and demand are both weak. The steel price may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 3, al2512 closed at 21600 yuan/ton. The supply is limited by capacity policies, and the demand is stable. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move up steadily [14]. Alumina - On November 3, ao2601 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina supply is in a "surplus" state, and the procurement demand has declined. The price is under pressure [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Zinc**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Lead**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PTA and PX**: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly due to the potential short - term impact on demand from the shutdown of four coal - fired glass production lines in the Shahe area, and the subsequent oversupply situation in winter. The anti - involution expectation in the soda ash industry has not materialized [8]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The Shahe production limit has been implemented, but the actual situation is not as expected. The recent price will oscillate, and the medium - term direction will be dominated by fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 4, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash opened low and moved lower, closing at 1202 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.51%, and the daily position increased by 22,468 lots [8]. - Fundamentally, the production and sales of enterprises tend to be balanced, and inventory fluctuates slightly. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, and the equipment maintenance is at a high level in the same period. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of October increased by 2.53% month - on - month. The production of float glass is stable, and the production of photovoltaic glass remains unchanged. The inventory of soda ash plants slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons [8]. Glass - Fundamentally, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level this year. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continuously increased. The real estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises, the market price of heavy soda ash in central China, and the production of flat glass [12][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Multiple positive factors are concentrated, and Laibo leads the protein sector [1] - Due to import cost increase and low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory, it is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not chase high for new orders. Meanwhile, be aware of the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter [7] 2. Key Points by Category Import Cost - After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7] Inventory Status - As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% decline [7] Supply Outlook - The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter (29 million tons) have gradually dispelled the expectation of supply shortage in the first quarter [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening oscillations, and a slight decline. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton [6]. - On the same day, the domestic Methanol Futures 2601 contract presented a pattern of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening downward movement, and a significant decline. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak pattern [6]. - Also on that day, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strengthening oscillations, and a slight increase. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America and OPEC's suspension of capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, the supply expectation changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 43.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 6.87 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 36.35 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but a significant decline of 5.90 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 3.20 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable expansion. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight increase of 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight increase of 24,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 95,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the same week, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight increase of 1.45% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight decrease of 1.29% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight decrease of 2.27 percentage points week - on - week and a slight increase of 1.15% month - on - month. As of October 31, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 10 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight rebound of 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons week - on - week, 14,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week, 40,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 420, a slight increase of 2 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight increase of 15,000 barrels/day week - on - week and a significant increase of 144,000 barrels/day year - on - year, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the same week, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 416 million barrels, a significant decrease of 6.858 million barrels week - on - week and 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight increase of 1.334 million barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight increase of 533,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 86.6%, a slight decline of 2.0 percentage points week - on - week, a significant decrease of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decline of 2.5 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts or 19.63% compared with the average in September [16]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,095 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | 2,143 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +37 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 435.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +9.2 yuan/barrel | - 32.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.3 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include the rubber basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory chart, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory chart, the full - steel tire operating rate trend chart, and the semi - steel tire operating rate trend chart [18][20][26]. - Methanol - related charts include the methanol basis chart, the methanol 1 - 5 month spread chart, the methanol domestic port inventory chart, the methanol inland social inventory chart, the methanol - to - olefin operating rate change chart, and the coal - to - methanol cost accounting chart [31][33][35]. - Crude - oil - related charts include the crude oil basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory chart, the US crude oil commercial inventory chart, the US refinery operating rate chart, the WTI crude oil net position holding change chart, and the Brent crude oil net position holding change chart [44][46][48].

2025/11/03 金 信 期 货 PT A乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 主力合约：11月3日主力合约eg2601基差为90元/吨，较前一日下跌2元/吨 华东地区市场价4090元/吨，较前一交易日下跌21元/吨 基本面：成本端原油连续下跌后企稳，煤炭价格上涨，今日MEG期货主力合约下跌1.32%；周内华东地区MEG港口库存合计49.9万吨， 环比增加1.6万吨。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 预期：乙二醇未来到港量预期增加，远月存在累库预期。近期部分乙二醇装置检修重启并行，且后续仍有新装置计划试车，供应端有 增量预期。双十一期间终端订单有所增加，但需求旺季已近尾声，短期预计乙二醇价格重心偏弱震荡。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 PTA PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：11月3日主力合约TA2601基差为-66元/吨，较前一日上涨6元/吨 华东地区市场价4540元/吨，较前一交易日上涨30元/吨。 基本面：成本端原油连续下跌后企稳，受石油化工板块的带动， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5, down 0.85%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. The mine's start - up rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The start - up rate of coal washing plants has decreased, while the middle and downstream are replenishing stocks, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [2]. - On November 3, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5, down 1.17%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation driven by cost. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,284.50元/吨，环比下跌1.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,771.50元/吨，环比下跌5.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为954,896.00手，环比减少3,107.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50,255.00手，环比增加377.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 62,214.00手，环比减少5,683.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,533.00手，环比增加127.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为63.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为137.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为500.00张，环比增加500.00张；焦炭仓单为2,070.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1,170.00元/吨，环比无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,700.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,760.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,520.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,280.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为235.50元/吨，环比上涨1.50元；J主力合约基差为3.50元/吨，环比上涨60.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比减少5.20万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41,150.50万吨，环比增加2,100.80万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4,600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.30万吨，环比减少0.60万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为269.90万吨，环比增加9.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1,052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为1,092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为3,696.86万吨，环比减少392.52万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比减少0.03% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元；焦炭产量为4,255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨 [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比减少3.00%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比减少1.33% [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2]. Industry News - On October 31, the Yunnan Iron and Steel Industry Anti - Involution Seminar was held in Kunming. Representatives from major steel enterprises in the province attended, emphasizing that anti - involution is the common responsibility of the entire industry and a long - term strategic choice [2]. - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high - quality development in the pig breeding industry does not exclude competition. Enterprises must innovate, reduce grain consumption, and control pig production capacity. Government departments need to intervene in the disorderly involution - style competition in the industry [2]. - Since October 1, the US government shutdown has set the second - longest record. Over one million US military soldiers face salary payment problems, and about 42 million people in the US may face food shortages in November. The shutdown may last until late November [2].

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of this week's hot events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including key economic data releases and policy decisions from different countries [2][3] Weekly Key Focus - On November 3rd at 09:45, Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI; on November 7th at 11:00, the General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data; at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves; on November 9th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI [2] - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials, and negotiations on ending the US government shutdown for their impacts on the futures market [2] Weekly Hot Event Preview November 3rd - Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 51.2. A slight drop may mildly suppress the rise of industrial and stock index futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [3] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected and previous value of 49.1 [4] November 4th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late October at 09:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. It is expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% [8] November 5th - Markit will release China's October SPGI Services PMI at 09:45, with a previous value of 52.9 [9] - The US ADP will announce the change in October ADP employment at 21:15, with an expected value of - 20,000 and a previous value of - 32,000. A higher value may help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [10] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 23:00, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 50. A slight increase may suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [11] - The US EIA will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 31st at 23:30, with a previous decrease of 6.858 million barrels. A continued decline may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [12] November 6th - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [13] November 7th - The General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data at 11:00. It is expected that exports will grow 7.1% year - on - year and imports 1.5% year - on - year, both lower than the previous values. This may suppress the rise of stock index and related commodity futures [14] - The People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves at 16:00, with September foreign exchange reserves at $3,338.658 billion and gold reserves at 74.06 million ounces [16] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the November Consumer Confidence Index at 23:00, with an expected value of 53 and a previous value of 53.6. A slight drop may suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but help the rise of gold and silver futures [17] November 9th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI at 09:30. It is expected that CPI will decline 0.0% year - on - year and PPI will decline 2.2% year - on - year, both better than the previous values. This may mildly help the rise of commodity and stock index futures but suppress the rise of treasury bond futures [18]