2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期节奏反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆反弹，豆油区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，关注下游节前备货20251223 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：反套持有 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 1.47% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,464 | 涨跌幅 0.59% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,772 | 0.78% | 7,782 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night, and the spot prices in East China and Shandong increased. The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5530 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night. The spot price in East China was 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous period), and in Shandong, it was 5156 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan from the previous period). The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: In November 2025, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January 2026, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.48% but a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase (4.6% month - on - month) from the previous period. From December 15th to 21st, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.1% (up 1% month - on - month), the phenol operating rate was 75% (down 4% month - on - month), the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1% (down 0.4% month - on - month), the aniline operating rate was 61.3% (down 14.6% month - on - month), and the adipic acid operating rate was 59.6% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Caprolactam factories started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December 2025 to January 2026. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project was put into operation [1] - **International Oil Prices**: Due to concerns about the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.49 dollars to 58.01 dollars/barrel (a 2.64% month - on - month increase), the ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.60 dollars to 62.07 dollars/barrel (a 2.65% month - on - month increase). The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 5.2 to 432.6 yuan/ton and 8.7 to 441.3 yuan/ton in night trading [1] - **US Economic Data**: The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 rose from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The opening of the Asia - America regional arbitrage window may ease future port arrival pressure. Crude oil rebounded from a low this week. The pure benzene port inventory increased slightly but at a slower pace, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side declined. The transaction prices in East China and Shandong rebounded yesterday. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly. Future attention should be paid to port arrival volume and the future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Logic**: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - **Logic**: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - **Logic**: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - **Logic**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/23 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Dec's LPR release shows both the 5-year and 1-year rates remain unchanged. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the foundry aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 21,290 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan or 0.66% [1] - The trading volume for the foundry aluminum main contract increased by 259 hands to 4,594 hands, while the open interest decreased by 32 hands to 17,184 hands [1] - The average price of foundry aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) rose by 200 yuan to 23,400 yuan/ton, while other grades such as A380, ADC12, ZL102, and ZLD104 also saw price increases ranging from 100 to 200 yuan [1][2] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the market sentiment is cautious due to the Christmas week and upcoming third-quarter GDP data, but global stock markets and rising oil prices have improved risk sentiment, positively impacting metal demand [1] - The supply and demand for foundry aluminum have both decreased to some extent as the year-end approaches, leading to a stalemate in the market [2] - The cost side remains high, with aluminum alloy prices sustaining at elevated levels, while the smelting sector faces losses, limiting the increase in operating rates and supply capacity [2][3] Group 3 - The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved, supported by orders from the automotive consumer market, leading to increased trading activity [2] - The price performance of foundry aluminum is primarily supported by the cost of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend in the future [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures have increased as President Trump has intensified the blockade against Venezuela, impacting the global oil market and supply dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The blockade is expected to further restrict Venezuela's oil exports, which have already been significantly reduced, leading to tighter global oil supply [1] - Oil prices have shown a notable increase, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. government's actions are part of a broader strategy to apply pressure on the Venezuelan government, which is seen as a key factor influencing oil market stability [1] - The intensification of the blockade may lead to increased volatility in oil prices as traders react to ongoing developments in Venezuela [1]