1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The coking coal market has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". Concerns about demand are disturbing, and coke is expected to operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of January 16, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons (due to the addition of a new survey sample this period, the data increase was significant). The combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have already fermented. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - As of the week of January 16, the combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons. On Sunday of last week, an explosion occurred at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, triggering concerns about downstream production cuts and increasing market negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures are suppressed to maintain low and weak operation [6].

Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 147,600 yuan/ton and closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, with a -3.83% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 329,126 lots, and the open interest was 411,331 lots, compared with 416,133 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 3,100 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,698 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 146,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of -7,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 142,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of -7,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,040 US dollars/ton, a change of -45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - After the position limit policy last week, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily price limit for lithium carbonate futures contracts would be adjusted to 11%, the margin standard for speculative trading to 13%, and the margin standard for hedging trading to 12%. Multiple regulatory policies continued to suppress the speculative enthusiasm for lithium carbonate, and the main contract continued to decline with reduced positions [1]. - The spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Due to the recent sharp decline in prices, the downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the risk of a callback continues to rise. There is a possibility of testing the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Before April, the export tax - refund bonus still supports the demand to some extent, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and the demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, conduct short - term range operations and sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread trading and cross - variety trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The large funds intend to cool down the market through heavy - holding stocks and ETFs, resulting in a decline in the overall trading volume of the two markets. However, the participation enthusiasm of the remaining funds is still relatively high, leading to the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, while the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 17.2% [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. stock market was closed due to the Martin Luther King Memorial Day. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board due to intensified geopolitical risks and weak European economic data. The German DAX index fell 1.34% to 24,959.06 points, while the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.6% to 49,442.44 points [1] - In the A - share spot market, the three major indexes showed a divergent trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4,114 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. Most sector indexes rose, with the basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment, and automobile industries leading the gains, while the computer, communication, and banking industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2.7 trillion yuan [1] - In the futures market, the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IF decreased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The large funds use heavy - holding stocks and ETFs to cool down the market, causing the overall trading volume of the two markets to decline. However, the enthusiasm of other funds remains high, resulting in the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 19, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,114.00 (+0.29%), the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14,294.05 (+0.09%), the ChiNext Index was at 3,337.61 (-0.70%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,734.46 (+0.05%), the SSE 50 Index was at 3,075.94 (-0.12%), the CSI 500 Index was at 8,287.95 (+0.67%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 8,265.65 (+0.40%) [12] - The charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF was 120,242 (-34,310), the open interest was 290,666 (-4,289); the trading volume of IH was 46,533 (-18,564), the open interest was 91,413 (-1,610); the trading volume of IC was 166,526 (-21,181), the open interest was 319,424 (+6,196); the trading volume of IM was 206,367 (-35,971), the open interest was 380,256 (+1,234) [14] - The charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign net open - interest quantity of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][15][17] - The table shows the basis of stock index futures. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 1.66 (-6.79), and that of IH was 0.46 (-1.18) [39] - The table shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures. For example, for the "next - month - current - month" spread of IF, the current value was - 4.20 (+7.00) [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing intensified divergence between bulls and bears, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The short - term trends of nickel and stainless steel are affected by multiple factors such as policy expectations, cost, demand, and technical adjustments, and they are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 142,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 949,372 (-375,848) lots, and the open interest was 83,210 (-14,515) lots. The contract showed a wide - range volatile downward trend, with an obvious outflow of funds. The core drivers include the game of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy, the premium structure of spot goods, the demand transmission of stainless steel, and the high - level callback pressure on the technical side. The position - limit policy of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also had an impact [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore was stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. The price of domestic ferronickel rebounded slightly, and domestic factories' attitude of bargaining for raw material nickel ore may ease due to pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 149,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,798 (-187) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,708 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, which is essentially the resonance of policy expectation correction and technical adjustment. In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premiums, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand. Be vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side position, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,305 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 287,688 (-82,040) lots, and the open interest was 141,891 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a bottom - hunting and rebound, with a volatile and slightly stronger trend, presenting a pattern of "cost support + demand game". The core logic lies in the upward cost of ferronickel, the price - holding by steel mills, and the inventory reduction of spot goods providing support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users and the fluctuation of Shanghai nickel dragging down the futures market. The divergence between bulls and bears is concentrated on the pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling rhythm and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's quota [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weak upward movement of the futures market, the quotes of spot traders declined. In the Foshan area, due to the early expected Spring Festival holiday, the high - pressure of year - end payment collection, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, and the weak trading volume, traders' phenomenon of selling at a discount increased, and the price was slightly lower than that in the Wuxi area. Although the current demand for stainless steel is still weak and the spot quotes have slightly adjusted, the market's available spot supply is still tight, and the inventory pressure of traders mainly dealing in spot goods is low. With cost support and the high - level support of the futures market, the market's sentiment of holding prices still exists, and the short - term price may remain firm. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,150 (-150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 10 - 210 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,027.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the price trend of ferronickel, and the downstream stockpiling intensity before the Spring Festival. The support strength of the cost side and the recovery situation of the demand side will determine the subsequent trend direction. The single - side position is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-20 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11705元/吨，较前交易日变动-275.00元/吨，幅度-2.30%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.31元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1605，较前交易日变动+505；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1945，较前交易日变动+665； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1265，较前交易日变动+575。 据农业农村部监测，1月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.69，比上周五上升1.45个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为132.50，比上周五上升1.69个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.46元/公斤，比上周五上升2.2%； 牛肉65.67元/公斤，比上周五上升0.7%；羊肉63.55元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋8.13元/公斤，比上周五上升 4.2%；白条鸡17.63元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%。 市场分析 周初生猪价 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View The report focuses on the differentiation in the mid - stream industries and suggests paying attention to the release of downstream consumption. It presents recent events in the production and service industries, and analyzes the price and operation status of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1]. Detailed Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: From January 15th to 16th, China Aero - Engine's "Taihang 7", "Taihang 15", and "Taihang 110" gas turbine innovation and development demonstration projects passed the evaluation and acceptance of the National Energy Administration, which will drive the industrialization and commercialization of China's gas turbine industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of January 17th, 2026, since the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18th, 2025, Haikou Customs supervised 4.86 billion yuan in off - island duty - free shopping, a 46.8% year - on - year increase; 745,000 shopping visitors, a 30.2% increase; and 3.494 million shopping items, a 14.6% increase [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper prices declined slightly; egg and pork prices rebounded; PTA prices dropped [2]. - **Mid - stream**: PX and urea in the chemical industry maintained high operating rates; power plant coal consumption was at a low level [3]. - **Downstream**: Second - tier city commercial housing sales increased seasonally; domestic flight frequencies decreased slightly [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 19th, the spot price of corn was 2,262.9 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year), eggs 7.9 yuan/kg (up 8.28%), palm oil 8,620 yuan/ton (down 2.31%), cotton 15,889.3 yuan/ton (up 0.74%), and the average wholesale price of pork 18.5 yuan/kg (up 2.33%) [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of copper was 101,140 yuan/ton (down 2.07%), zinc 24,402 yuan/ton (up 1.16%), aluminum 23,890 yuan/ton (down 1.98%), and nickel 146,416.7 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [36]. - **Black Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of rebar was 3,232.3 yuan/ton (down 0.42%), iron ore 833.9 yuan/ton (down 1.03%), wire rod 3,480 yuan/ton (down 0.50%), and glass 12.9 yuan/square meter (down 0.23%) [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of natural rubber was 15,583.3 yuan/ton (down 1.48%), and the China Plastics City price index was 775.7 (up 1.34%) [36]. - **Energy**: On January 19th, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 59.3 US dollars/barrel (up 0.37%), Brent crude oil 64.1 US dollars/barrel (up 1.25%), liquefied natural gas 3,514 yuan/ton (down 0.90%), and coal 803 yuan/ton (up 0.88%) [36]. - **Chemical Industry**: On January 19th, the spot price of PTA was 5,019.8 yuan/ton (down 2.02%), polyethylene 6,840 yuan/ton (up 2.47%), urea 1,767.5 yuan/ton (up 1.29%), and soda ash 1,214.3 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 19th, the national cement price index was 134.5 (down 0.44% year - on - year), the building materials composite index increased by 0.03%, and the national concrete price index decreased by 0.18% [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The iron ore market sentiment is pessimistic, and iron ore prices are expected to be weak. The coking coal and coke markets have limited supply - demand contradictions and are expected to fluctuate. The thermal coal market has increasing market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the coal prices in the production areas are running weakly [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The spot steel transactions were generally weak, with the disk opening high and closing low, and the market speculation willingness was poor [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The building material production is at a low level in the same period, and the daily average pig iron output has declined. Steel mills have successively announced winter storage policies, but the downstream winter storage willingness is insufficient. The building material fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the building material prices are expected to remain volatile. The high inventory of plates has always suppressed the price marginal elasticity, and the policy expectations have driven the long - term demand expectations. In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, and the prices depend on cost changes [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore prices were weakly running. The spot prices of imported iron ore at Tangshan Port declined weakly, with less market transactions. The 47 - port arrival volume was 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons compared with the previous period; the 45 - port arrival volume was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.606 million tons compared with the previous period [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while the shipments from non - mainstream countries continued to increase. The overall global shipments decreased. The demand for iron ore decreased last week, and the daily average pig iron output declined. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. In the short term, steel mills face winter storage replenishment, and iron ore prices will remain volatile [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1174.5 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton, with the disk maintaining a range - bound operation. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented yet [6] Supply - Demand and Logic - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and there is a price game between steel and coking enterprises. Before the Spring Festival, the replenishment of steel mills is expected to further boost demand. In the short term, coke is expected to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal is increasing, but the fundamental contradiction is relatively controllable. Driven by the replenishment demand, the demand for coking coal is expected to continue to improve. The coking coal price has a bottom support [6] Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuation; Coke: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas declined weakly. The terminal demand such as metallurgy, chemical industry, and power plants was for on - demand procurement. At the ports, the coal market prices were weakly running. The import coal market transactions were deserted [8] Supply - Demand and Logic - The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment is increasing, the supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [8] Strategy - None [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] Core View - The glass and soda ash market has a weak performance. The glass market has a cold trading atmosphere, and the soda ash market is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures price dropped significantly yesterday, while the spot price remained stable. The trading atmosphere in both the futures and spot markets was cold [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price oscillated yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Although the supply - demand contradiction of glass has improved, the terminal rigid demand is difficult to break through in the off - season. The futures price maintains a premium in the short term, but it still needs to reduce prices to cut production due to high inventory. Attention should be paid to cold - repair and speculation [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has increased. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have led to increased supply, which suppresses prices. The downstream demand is weak, and if the weak reality continues, there will be further downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the changes in float - glass production lines and new soda - ash projects [1]. Group 2: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon Manganese: Oscillation [4] - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4] Core View - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are in a weak adjustment state, with strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures price oscillated weakly yesterday. The spot market was average, with the mainstream steel - procurement price at 5920 yuan/ton, and the 6517 price in the northern market at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price oscillated weakly yesterday. The spot price remained stable, and the overall transaction was okay, with the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton and 75 - grade at 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there is new production capacity. Supply is still loose. The demand is expected to improve due to the expected increase in pig - iron output and pre - Spring - Festival steel - mill restocking. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3]. - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradiction of silicon iron is controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production. The demand is expected to improve due to steel - mill resumption and winter - storage restocking. However, the price increase is limited due to the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and overall over - capacity. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and electricity - price policies [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Core Views - For methanol, with the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants are shutting down or planning production cuts, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran stabilizes. Methanol has difficulty moving up or down, and the MTO profit caps the upside. Unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [1]. - For plastics, the market shows a volatile trend in the futures, stable spot prices, and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply is expected to be moderately pressured [2]. - For PP, the market is stable in the futures, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has slightly declined. The supply is expected to be moderately pressured in the 05 and subsequent periods [3]. - For PVC, the basis is improving, and the trading volume is average this week. The overall inventory is moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short - term, the seasonal production resumes, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: The price of动力煤期货remains unchanged at 801, and the西北 - folded price has a daily change of -25 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: Iran's conflict continues to ferment. Some MTO plants are shutting down or reducing production, waiting for the normal situation in Iran to restart. The MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [1]. Plastics - **Price Data**: The price of东北亚乙烯has a daily change of -30, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -28. The two - oil inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are decreasing [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures market is volatile, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating, and the social inventory is increasing [2]. PP - **Price Data**: The price of山东丙烯remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -14. The basis is stable [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures market is stable, the basis is weak, and the import and export profits are negative. The supply is temporarily stable in January, and the inventory is moderately high [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: The price of西北电石remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -30. The basis has a daily change of +30 [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The basis is improving, the trading volume is average, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5].