Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is the Baocheng Futures rebar morning report dated July 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is slightly bearish. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are in high - level sideways movement [2] - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Supply is contracting as weekly output continues to decline, but production cuts may not last due to good profit margins and some product re - production. Demand is seasonally weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, suppressing steel prices. Although policy expectations drove up steel prices before, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. With cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [3] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are provided. The short - term and medium - term are sideways, and the intraday is slightly bearish. The view is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level sideways steel prices. There are also explanations for calculating price changes and definitions of different price trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - Supply: Weekly output of rebar is declining, but production cuts may not be sustainable due to good profit margins and product re - production. - Demand: Seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, continuing to suppress steel prices. - Market situation: Policy - driven optimism is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. Cost support from strong raw materials exists. Steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels, and attention should be paid to today's Steelhome production and sales data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips are recommended [2]. - For methanol, the market is currently driven by news, with increased volatility and difficulty in operation. The upstream开工 continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions are mostly priced in. The demand side is weak overall, and the upside is limited in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, although affected by short - term sentiment, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable. The price has support at the bottom but is also suppressed by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have been rising strongly, and the overall commodity market has strong bullish sentiment. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year, with a medium - term bullish view. Short - term risks of pull - backs should be guarded against [8][11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the extension of anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. The price is strong in the short term under the stimulation of anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the cost - side support has returned strongly, and the BZN spread is expected to repair. The price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support has returned, but due to high trader inventories and weak seasonal demand, the price is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. With high - level downstream PTA load and low inventory, there is limited short - term negative feedback from the polyester and terminal sectors. It is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter, and short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips are worthy of attention [18][20]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and demand is under pressure in the off - season. However, due to low inventory and improved processing fees, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking at a low level provides support for the valuation [22]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.71, or 1.06%, at $66.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, or 0.61%, at $68.67; INE main crude oil futures closed down 23.40 yuan, or 4.35%, at 514.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Fujeirah port's weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 8.30 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.18 million barrels, a 9.44% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 9.99 million barrels, a 4.87% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.72 million barrels to 20.47 million barrels, a 3.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 14 yuan/ton, with a basis of +1 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream开工 continued to decline, and overseas plant开工 returned to medium - high levels. The port olefin load increased this week, while traditional demand was in the off - season. The overall demand was weak, and the downstream profit margin was still low [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工 decreased slightly, and enterprise profits were at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers started to pick up, and export container - loading continued, with rising port inventories [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU continued to rise strongly [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend is favorable in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 142 yuan to 5260 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5080 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 102) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+5) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side remained stable, the overall开工 rate increased, the downstream开工 decreased, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased. The fundamental pessimistic expectations improved, but supply - demand and valuation still faced pressure [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period and had room for upward repair [12][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene开工 increased, supply was abundant, the benzene ethylene开工 continued to rise, port inventories increased significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall开工 rate fluctuated upward [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side support returned, the spot price remained unchanged, trader inventories were at a high level, and seasonal demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, the开工 rate was expected to gradually recover, downstream开工 decreased seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 24 yuan to 6886 yuan, PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 843 dollars, the basis was 57 (- 22) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 96 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China decreased slightly, the Asian load remained unchanged, some plants had changes, PTA load remained flat, imports decreased, inventories decreased, and the valuation was at a neutral level [18][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan to 4794 yuan, the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4775 yuan, the basis was 2 (- 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 (- 6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load remained unchanged, downstream load decreased, terminal load decreased, inventories increased, and the processing fee decreased. Supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and demand was under pressure in the off - season [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 37 yuan to 4447 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4490 yuan, the basis was 60 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 6 (- 9) yuan [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side开工 decreased, downstream load decreased, import arrivals were expected, port inventories decreased, and the valuation was relatively high year - on - year. The fundamental situation was expected to turn weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking provided support [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The medium - term strategy is still to go long on dips. The prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, against the backdrop of multiple policy expectations, the black - series commodities rose across the board. In the industry, inventory accumulation in the off - season was less than expected, demand showed certain resilience, and the increase in hot metal production provided continuous support to the raw material end. Both futures and spot prices rose [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of rebar was 209.06 million tons (down 3.51% week - on - week and 6.45% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 321.14 million tons (down 0.62% week - on - week and 1.80% year - on - year). The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased. The blast furnace weekly production of rebar was 182.67 million tons (down 3.73% week - on - week and 8.82% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly production was 26.39 million tons (down 1.97% week - on - week and up 14.09% year - on - year) [15][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.46% (up 0.37% week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 65.08% (up 2.34% week - on - week and down 0.43% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar was + 171 yuan/ton (down 12.76% week - on - week and up 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the profit of hot - rolled coil was + 146 yuan/ton (up 2.82% week - on - week and up 151 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 206.17 million tons (down 6.92% week - on - week and 9.18% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.50 million tons (down 3.36% week - on - week and 24.97% year - on - year). The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 323.79 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 1.27% year - on - year) [36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 543.26 million tons (up 0.53% week - on - week and down 29.50% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 173.1 million tons (down 4.30% week - on - week and 6.44% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 370.16 million tons (up 2.97% week - on - week and down 30.83% year - on - year). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 342.91 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and 18.97% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 77.31 million tons (down 0.64% week - on - week and 16.41% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 265.6 million tons (down 0.80% week - on - week and 20.56% year - on - year) [40][45]. - **Downstream Industries**: The weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.48% week - on - week and 24.57% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 51.47% week - on - week and 66.40% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [48][51]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 99.85 (up 1.75% week - on - week and down 4.46% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.79 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and up 4.05% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 23.712 million tons (down 10.93% week - on - week and 0.21% year - on - year) [58]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (up 263,000 tons week - on - week and 279,000 tons year - on - year), the ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons (up 1.01% week - on - week and 2.83% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.29 days (down 2.63% week - on - week and 6.99% year - on - year) [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons (up 0.14% week - on - week and down 9.78% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.2216 million tons (down 1.75% week - on - week and 4.46% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (down 1.88% week - on - week and up 9.03% year - on - year) [69]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.07% (up 0.64% week - on - week and down 2.25% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.85% (up 0.85% week - on - week and down 5.35% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 140,800 tons (up 260% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 76 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.01% (up 0.19% week - on - week and down 2.04% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.84% (down 0.21% week - on - week and 0.24% year - on - year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 7.902 million tons (up 4.99% week - on - week and 4.01% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.9093 million tons (up 1.05% week - on - week and 6.34% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at ports was 3.215 million tons (down 0.04% week - on - week and up 22.01% year - on - year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 555,500 tons (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 57.77% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (up 0.19% week - on - week and 15.72% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at ports was 1.9911 million tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and 1.60% year - on - year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: After the first round of coke price increase, the second round of increase has started. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,300 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 620 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,030 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 770 yuan/ton year - on - year) [102]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued to shrink. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened significantly [104][109].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Baocheng Futures Rebar Morning Report (July 21, 2025) [1] - Author: Tu Weihua [5] - Author's position: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [5] - Author's qualification: F3060359 (futures practice certificate), Z0011688 (investment consulting certificate) [5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 3: Core Views - For Rebar 2510, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market, and steel prices will oscillate upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. However, with low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, combined with the fermentation of policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices are expected to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: oscillating strongly; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices will oscillate upwards. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is strong, and weekend steel spot prices have risen significantly. The supply of rebar has contracted to a low level as construction steel mills' production has weakened, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand continues the seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators performing poorly and at a low level in recent years. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure, but low inventory means minor real - world contradictions. Policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials provide cost support, so steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of steel continues to rise, leading to another increase in the black market. The fundamentals of steel have minor contradictions and are slightly better than the seasonal performance, with effective raw material support [1]. - The iron ore price is oscillating upward due to the recovery of hot metal production. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. - The first round of price increases for coking coal and coke has fully landed, and the prices are oscillating strongly. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises will increase, and attention should be paid to the demand in the off - season and the supply changes of coking coal [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal at the pithead is continuously shrinking, and the port coal price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the price is strong due to rising demand, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, steel futures and spot prices showed a strong trend, with the hot - rolled coil futures main contract reaching a new high. The spot trading volume was 9.48 tons, and the basis continued to shrink [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the output of rebar decreased, demand weakened in the off - season, and inventory slightly increased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. The fundamentals are slightly better than the seasonal performance, and raw material support is still effective [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated upward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise. The trading volume of national main port iron ore was 114.4 tons, a 14.40% increase, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot was 189.7 tons, a 24.80% increase. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43% [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, hot metal production recovered, and iron ore consumption showed good resilience. Port inventory slightly increased, and large - scale inventory slightly decreased. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated within a range. The first round of price increases for coke fully landed, the port clearance of imported coal slowly recovered, and inventory continued to decline [5]. Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, production remained stable, inventory slightly decreased, and demand increased. Some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, but production enthusiasm will increase after the price increase. For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 is slow, and the supply is relatively insufficient. Steel mills still have rigid demand [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Others: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production area, some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the price of some coal types increased by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage, and the market coal price increased steadily. The high - calorie Australian coal price was inverted, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal had a cost - performance advantage [8]. Supply - Demand and Logic - In July, with the increase in temperature, the downstream daily consumption increased, and the demand strengthened. In the short term, the price is oscillating strongly, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Strategy No strategy information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - International crude oil prices are continuously declining with further decline expected, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Upstream petrochemical plants' devices are restarting, increasing supply, while downstream demand remains in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand balance [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). PE oil - based production profit is 167.1 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP oil - based production profit is -222.9 yuan/ton (-5.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is 245.0 yuan/ton (+52.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compared the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][40][41] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -177.5 yuan/ton (-44.5), PP import profit is -672.8 yuan/ton (-24.7), and PP export profit is 34.2 US dollars/ton (+3.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [73][78][88]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].