人民财讯1月9日电，国内商品期货收盘，多晶硅主力合约跌超8%，沪镍、BR橡胶跌超2%。钯涨6%， LU燃油、原油涨超3%，燃料油涨超2%。 （原标题：国内商品期货收盘 多晶硅跌超8%） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - **Trend**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - **Trend**: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - **Trend**: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - **Trend**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - **Trend**: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - **Trend**: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - **Trend**: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - **Trend**: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - **Trend**: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - **Trend**: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - **Trend**: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - **Trend**: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - **Trend**: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - **Trend**: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the medium - term is expected to be oscillating. The short - and medium - term prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday performance is expected to be oscillating weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean futures prices, but the pressure of Brazil's high - yield still exists. The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report next Monday. The short - term rebound space of US soybean futures prices is limited. Domestic oil mills still have soybean meal inventory pressure. After New Year's Day, replenishment by traders and feed mills drives up trading volume. In the short term, soybean meal is boosted by both short - term supply shortage and long - term cost support, so the futures price is oscillating strongly [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Supported by the rebound of the entire oil and fat sector and the weakening of the ringgit, the decline in crude oil limits the increase; US soybean oil rises. On the one hand, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is less than expected. On the other hand, the market expects that next week's Malaysian palm report may further push up Malaysian palm inventory. Palm oil faces the greatest inventory pressure, and the domestic palm oil inventory continues to rise, highlighting the pressure on palm oil spot and futures prices. In the short term, the palm oil futures price is weaker than other oils and fats and should be treated as oscillating weakly [7] 3.3 Other Information - For soybean meal 2605, factors affecting the price include import soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure. For soybean oil 2605, factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2605, factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Sugar Industry - As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan Province processed a total of 3.461 million tons of sugarcane, an increase from 2.8135 million tons in the same period last season [2] - Sugar production reached 392,300 tons, up from 326,900 tons year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 11.34%, slightly down from 11.62% [2] - Cumulative sales of new sugar amounted to 281,400 tons, compared to 267,100 tons last year, with a sales rate of 71.72%, down from 81.70% [2] - Monthly sugar sales were 249,100 tons, an increase from 234,400 tons in the previous year, while industrial inventory stood at 110,900 tons, up from 59,800 tons [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 yuan per ton, up by 10 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan's prices range from 5,140 to 5,230 yuan per ton, up by 10 to 20 yuan [2][9] - The sugar market is experiencing a slight rebound due to a warm investment sentiment, with short-term fluctuations expected [9] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, with an increase in open interest by 9,611 contracts to 925,500 contracts [10] - The international market is facing ongoing macroeconomic disturbances, with the US dollar index rising, leading to fluctuations in cotton prices [10] - Domestic market sentiment remains positive, with expectations for future policy developments, although the pace of open interest growth has slowed [10] - Short-term upward momentum for Zheng cotton is anticipated, but there may be divergence at higher levels; medium to long-term cotton prices may still have room to rise [10][4] - Key future focus areas include inventory replenishment by downstream textile enterprises before the Spring Festival and upcoming macroeconomic news, including new cotton target price subsidy policies expected around April 10 [4][10]

每经AI快讯，1月7日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金跌0.58%，沪银跌2.57%，沪铜跌0.86%， 铁矿涨1.47%，焦煤涨4.67%，玻璃涨1.24%，原油跌0.58%。 ...

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1050 美分/蒲式耳震荡。虽巴西收割量偏低，但美豆出口窗口收窄，而阿根廷南部 高温少雨引发市场关注，带动美豆粕低位反弹，后续需紧盯巴西收割进度与阿根廷天气变化。国内市场静 待拍卖消息；豆粕延续近强远弱格局，远月受美豆疲软、人民币升值等压制，短期低位震荡反复。整体看， 豆类市场多空交织，美豆聚焦南美收割与天气博弈，国内则受现货报价松动及政策预期影响，短期难破震 荡区间。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the strong side', and the reference view is 'oscillation thinking' [1] - In January, coking coal is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the market may focus on the resumption rhythm of upstream and downstream. Currently, coking coal lacks continuous upward drivers and its price may maintain low - level oscillation [5] - Downstream resumption of production and winter storage may support the coke price, and the decline of the main contract may face resistance, but whether it can rebound upward depends on demand improvement and new policy benefits [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Core Logic**: In the new year, coal mines that stopped or reduced production will resume, increasing coking coal output. With high imports, supply pressure remains. After the New Year's Day, downstream steel mills may resume production, driving up demand. Overall, in January, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, and the price may oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: Before the festival, coking coal prices were stable, and coking enterprise profits were not improved, so production enthusiasm was average. Downstream steel mills will gradually resume production in the new year. The speed and amplitude of the increase in hot metal output may affect the short - term trend of coke futures. Downstream resumption and winter storage may support the price, but upward rebound depends on demand and policies [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on December 31 saw more declines than gains, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1571.11 points, down 12.62 points or 0.80% from the previous trading day [1] - Notable gains were observed in the nickel and aluminum sectors, with the main contracts for nickel and aluminum rising over 2%, while platinum and palladium saw significant declines of over 12% and 5%, respectively [1][2] Group 2: Nickel Market Dynamics - The nickel market experienced heightened concerns due to supply-side disruptions, with overnight London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices surging, leading to a peak increase of over 4% in the Shanghai nickel main contract [3] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported a significant reduction in nickel ore approval volumes for 2026, which is expected to impact supply dynamics, potentially creating a 10-20% shortfall if production quotas remain unchanged [3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The Shanghai aluminum main contract continued its strong performance, achieving a four-day winning streak and reaching a nearly four-year high, driven by positive macroeconomic expectations [4] - Despite the positive outlook, the aluminum supply is expected to see only modest increases, with demand showing signs of weakening due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals, particularly platinum and palladium, faced significant declines, attributed to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which may weaken easing expectations [5] - The overall outlook for platinum remains cautiously optimistic due to a tight supply-demand balance projected for 2025, while palladium's demand growth appears limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]