| 品种 | 结算价(8月8日) | 结算价(8月1日) | 涨跌值 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1219.5 | 1115 | 104.5 | 9.37% | | 碳酸锂 | 75000 | 68860 | 6140 | 8.92% | | 天然橡胶 | 15500 | 14440 | 1060 | 7.34% | | 纯碱 | 1336 | 1254 | 82 | 6.54% | | 沪银 | 9277 | 8923 | 354 | 3.97% | | 红枣 | 11310 | 10880 | 430 | 3.95% | | 菜籽粕 | 2763 | 2679 | 84 | 3.14% | | 苹果 | 8022 | 7791 | 231 | 2.96% | | 豆油 | 8396 | 8228 | 168 | 2.04% | | 豆二 | 3743 | 3670 | 73 | 1.99% | | 沪金 | 785.82 | 770.9 | 14.92 | 1.94% | | 焦炭 | 1648.5 | 1617.5 | 31 | 1.92 ...

每经AI快讯，8月8日，国内商品期货收盘，跌多涨少。燃料油、LU燃油等跌超2%，沥青、玻璃等跌超 1%，淀粉、PTA等小幅下跌；碳酸锂涨超7%，红枣涨逾3%，菜粕、苹果等涨超1%，NR、沪银等小幅 上涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

人民财讯8月8日电，国内商品期货开盘，碳酸锂主力合约涨超2%，菜粕涨超1%。氧化铝跌超2%，玻 璃、纯碱、原油跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, including lithium carbonate, coking coal, and aluminum oxide contracts rising over 1% [1] - Conversely, soybean meal, European shipping rates, and caustic soda contracts experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, along with their core driving logics [1][5][7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with intraday views of being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views of being oscillating [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season and continuous new rubber output in domestic production areas lead to high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the RU 2601 contract oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.52% to 15,460 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, resulting in continuous supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.09% to 11,470 yuan/ton. It is expected that the BR 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report's core view on动力煤现货 is that it shows a neutral trend in the short - term and medium - term. The coal price is expected to be strong due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, production is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season, with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that temperatures in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. Electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and residential life this summer will have certain support [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 观点参考 观点参考 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484. ...

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed results with significant movements in various sectors, including a rise in lumber and coking coal prices by over 2%, while egg prices fell by over 4% [1][2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.34 points, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous trading day [1] Lumber Market Insights - Lumber prices surged by 2.81% due to optimistic expectations for the traditional consumption peak season in September and October, alongside increased foreign pricing [2] - The inventory levels of imported New Zealand lumber remained stable, but a significant increase in incoming shipments was noted, with 14 vessels expected, a 133% week-on-week increase [2] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded by over 1% following a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic conditions [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support precious metal prices in the long term [3] Egg Market Dynamics - Egg futures experienced a notable decline of over 4%, attributed to an early surge in spot prices and insufficient demand [4] - The upcoming seasonal demand period is expected to influence prices, with potential for a rebound in September contracts as the market prepares for holiday stocking [4] Industrial Silicon Trends - Industrial silicon prices fell by over 3%, primarily due to increased production from small to medium-sized enterprises in the Southwest region [5] - The demand for industrial silicon remains weak across its main downstream sectors, including organic silicon and polysilicon, with overall demand showing a downward trend [5] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production, which has pressured international oil prices and led to declines in related energy and chemical products [6]