1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, presenting market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance shows copper prices rising, falling, and then stabilizing. The fundamentals include a weakening US dollar index and tight copper ore supply, with processing fees remaining low. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.21%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is improving marginally. The trading strategy is that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26%. The fundamentals show that the supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.86%. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to maintain the view that the price will fluctuate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased by 0.39%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see due to strong current - weak Q1 expectations [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 2.41%. The fundamentals are that the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the domestic fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth is under pressure. The trading strategy is to focus on the progress of the storage and procurement platform, and the price may fluctuate around 53000 - 55000 without new progress [2]. - **Tin**: The price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the inventory is decreasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the futures are at a large discount. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the iron ore is in a forward discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short - sell the steel mill profit [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to be abundant in the long - term, and the demand is mixed. The trading strategy is to wait for a new driver, and the domestic market depends on tariff policy and production [4]. - **Corn**: The futures price rose and then fell. The fundamentals are that short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to increase. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Oils**: The Malaysian market rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is that the price is expected to be strong in the short - term but fluctuate overall, and attention should be paid to production and policies [4]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the international market may decline in the long - term, and the domestic market will face pressure from increased production and imports in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuated narrowly. The fundamentals are that the international demand is weak, and the domestic market has hedging pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices in the 13600 - 13900 range [4][5]. - **Eggs**: The futures and spot prices fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Hogs**: The futures price was weak. The fundamentals are that the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is to expect short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to short [6]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is high, and the PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. The demand for polyester is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to take profit on long PX orders and stop shorting the processing fee [6][7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the raw material price is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and band trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **PP**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **MEG**: The spot price is stable. The fundamentals are that the short - term supply - demand is improving, and the medium - term supply - demand will accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high prices and take profit on short positions [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are that the pure benzene supply - demand is improving marginally but the contradiction is still large, and the styrene supply - demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term fluctuations and recommend buying styrene profit at low prices in the medium - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [8].

人民财讯12月2日电，国内商品期货夜盘开盘，棕榈油、纸浆主力合约涨超1%，焦炭涨近1%；沥青、 甲醇主力合约跌近1%。 ...

其他品种方面，贵金属继续高位盘整，沪银盘中再度刷新历史新高至13700/千克以上的水平，最大涨幅超5%，但终盘涨幅有所回落，仅收涨2.46%。 多晶硅快速回落铂钯转跌低开 12月2日，多晶硅主力合约快速回落，低开后持续下行，以2.70%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。广期所昨日对多晶硅期货PS2601合约的交易保证金标准及交易 限额作出调整，市场多头情绪快速降温。从基本面来看，光大期货表示，光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需 求负反馈效应加剧。硅料厂延续强势挺价、叠加盘面近月挤仓和正套操作，近期现货不跌反涨。硅料厂延续减产降库不降价策略，市场量价分离、有价无市 特征愈发明确。随着交易所改变交易规则，近月挤仓风险出现下降，关注后续持仓量变化。 铂钯今日转跌调整，主力合约均跌超2%。虽然美联储降息预期将强，但此前的上涨已在盘面体现，白银在库存紧张下快速走高，但金价上涨动能有限，同 时日本央行的鹰派言论引发市场对全球流动性收紧的担忧，贵金属市场整体情绪有所回落。就铂钯自身而言，银河期货认为，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧 状态，铂金显性库存有去化表现，基本面有支撑，但近期广期所铂价与外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, aiming to assist investors in making informed decisions. 3. Summary by Directory Base Metals - **Copper**: Market rallied yesterday. Traders are focused on the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and the tight supply of copper concentrate and refined copper since the cesco meeting. Suggest not to chase the high and wait for a new buying point [2]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of electrolytic aluminum closed 1.18% higher. With a warm macro - environment and improving fundamentals, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The main contract closed 1.11% lower. Due to loose supply, accumulating inventory, and weak cost support, the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: International precious metal prices were slightly divided on Monday. Gold is recommended to be bought at the lower support level, and silver can be short - term long due to the tightened overseas market [3]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The market was narrowly volatile on Monday. With stable supply and demand, the price is expected to move between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current situation is strong in reality but weak in Q1 expectations. The short - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The short - term price is driven up by a short - squeeze. The subsequent price depends on the progress of the state - reserve platform. If there is no new progress, the price will fluctuate around the spot price of 53,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Tin**: The price rose and then fell yesterday. With the easing of supply concerns, it is recommended to wait for a new buying point [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weak supply and demand and significant structural differentiation, it is advisable to wait and see and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weakening supply - demand balance and a neutral - high valuation, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed higher. With deteriorating steel mill profits and a high - valued futures, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean fell overnight. The global supply - demand is improving but still loose. The domestic market follows the cost in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices varied by region. The short - term supply is tight, but the new crop is expected to increase, and the cost has dropped. The futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish [7][8]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The Malaysian market fell. With high production in the producing areas and export decline, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was narrowly volatile. The international export situation is good, and the domestic downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices were stable. With balanced supply and demand, the price is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were narrowly volatile, and spot prices mostly rose. With sufficient supply, the price is expected to be seasonally weak and the futures price to be volatile and bearish [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [9]. - **PVC**: The price was at the bottom and volatile. With weak supply - demand balance, it is recommended to short [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is recommended to take profit on long PX and short PTA processing fee positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The price was volatile and bearish. With falling raw material prices and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to trade in bands [10]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. With weak supply - demand and low valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PP**: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [10][11]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and take profit on short positions appropriately [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price jumped due to geopolitical risks. With a bearish fundamental and easing geopolitical risks, it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy styrene profit on dips [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [11][12].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日，商品期货早盘收盘，集运指数欧线期货连续涨5.97%，白银连续涨3.14%，液 化石油气连续涨2.90%，钯连续跌2.28%，燃料油连续涨2.08%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction is more than expected, polyester load is strong, and India's BIS cancellation boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, this week's main port arrivals are moderately low, and port inventory may slightly compress early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, putting pressure on some short - process oil chemical plants. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated and closed down, spot market negotiation was average, and the spot basis loosened. Different delivery - time spot had corresponding transaction prices and basis. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 36 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 17, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main - force position: Net long position, with long positions decreasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, and the spot basis is strong. The absolute price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price fluctuated and weakened, and the basis continued to decline. Spot and foreign - exchange prices had corresponding performances [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 3889, 01 - contract basis is 16, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main - force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [8]. - Expectation: Port arrivals are moderately low this week, and inventory may slightly decrease next week. However, there are still arrival plans in early December. The price is at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's production capacity, output, consumption, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity utilization, supply - demand gap, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's total production, new - added capacity, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, supply - demand gap, and inventory changes [13]. - **Price**: Lists the prices of various products on November 27 and 26, 2025, including spot and futures prices of PTA, MEG, and related products, as well as processing fees and profits [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays historical inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory [44][46]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: Shows the historical start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and related industries [56][58][60]. - **Profit Analysis**: Presents the historical profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including processing fees and production profits [64][67][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The supply pressure of TA suppresses price elasticity, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The future prices of PX and PTA are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand exacerbating the risk of oversupply, and inventory is likely to shift from differentiation to a general upward pressure [2][6]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On November 26, the PX main contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 235.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,684.0 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 54.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 58.11 dollars/barrel. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average trading volume of 697.2 million meters [2]. - **Supply Side**: If there is no significant change in PX devices, the operating rate is expected to remain high. With stable crude oil prices, there is continuous cost support, which may support the upward movement of PX prices. The operation of PTA devices may be stable, but the strong upward trend of upstream PX indirectly increases PTA costs. If the device operating rate remains high, supply pressure still exists, which may suppress the increase [3]. - **Demand Side**: The trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased to 679.0 million meters (lower than the 15 - day average of 697.2 million meters), reflecting a slowdown in textile consumption and implying weak polyester demand. If the polyester operating rate follows the decline, it will directly weaken the support on the demand side of PTA, and the weak demand may further drag down the overall trend [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The risk of PTA factory inventory accumulation is expected to increase. Weak demand combined with a negative PTA main contract basis (- 54.0 yuan/ton) indicates that the market anticipates future supply to be loose or inventory pressure to increase. If the demand side does not improve, the pressure on the inventory side will strengthen the expectation of price decline. The deep negative basis of PX (- 235.0 yuan/ton) implies tight spot supply but cautious expectations for future inventory [5]. - **Polyester**: On November 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,264.0 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 36.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15 moving average) decreased from 716.4 million meters to 697.2 million meters, indicating a continuous weakening of downstream textile demand. The inventory status is differentiated, but weak demand may lead to inventory accumulation. It is predicted that the future prices of the industrial chain (PX and PTA) will continue to decline [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 20.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.88%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.50%. The PX basis decreased by 31.28% [8]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,684 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 10.52%, and the open interest decreased by 0.50%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 107.69%, and the import profit increased by 0.33% [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,264 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 5.69%, and the open interest decreased by 3.51%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged, and the PF basis decreased by 45.45% [8]. - **Other Products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and some other products showed different degrees of change, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester products remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On November 26, a Fed official in Milan believed that the economy needed significant interest rate cuts. On November 25, Fed official Daly supported a December interest rate cut, the market had the view of delaying the December interest - rate meeting, the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut rose to 80%, and the Israeli central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Zelensky said that the list of steps to end the conflict was approaching feasibility [10]. - **Supply - demand (Demand)**: On November 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 550.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 131.0 million meters [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内现货需求疲软，饲料企业多以刚需补货为主，对远期供应缺口的预期存疑。同时，国 内豆粕库存处于相对高位，供应宽松压制近月合约表现。然而，成本端为市场提供底部支撑，市场关 注美国政府释放的出口乐观预期，市场聚焦年底前中国能否大规模采购美豆。此外，南美大豆的丰产 预期也限制了美豆价格的上涨空间。盘面来看，随着资金移仓换月转向远月 2605，豆粕期价波动重 心有所下移，3000 元/吨关口仍是短期多空争夺的重要分水岭，短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...