美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个重要事件。这一变动背后隐藏着诸多经济因素，也将对全球经济和金融市场带来深远影响，引起广泛 关注和讨论。 走势情况：近期美元指数持续下探，最终跌破了99关口。这一走势并非偶然，是一系列因素交织的结果。从技术层面看，美元指数已出现多日下 跌趋势，市场上看空美元的力量逐步增强。从更宏观角度，它与美国的经济数据表现、货币政策预期等息息相关。 未来展望：美元指数后市走向充满不确定性。若美国经济数据改善、货币政策转向，美元指数可能止跌回升。但如果经济持续疲软，货币政策维 持宽松，美元可能进一步走弱。投资者和企业需密切关注市场动态，做好风险管理。 你认为美元指数未来一段时间会回升还是继续下跌？不妨点赞、分享文章并在评论区交流看法。 汇率市场：美元指数下跌直接影响到各国货币与美元的汇率。一些新兴市场货币趁势反弹，在一定程度上缓解了本币贬值压力。对于进出口企业 而言，这会影响到它们的成本和利润。出口型企业可能因本币升值而面临订单减少的困境，进口型企业则因货币购买力增强而降低采购成本。 商品市场：美元与大宗商品价格通常呈反向关系。随着美元指数跌破99，黄金、原油等大宗商品价格往往会上涨。以 ...

月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 核 心 内 容 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

生产： 制造业或延续"抢出口"，传统基建恢复仍缓。 ①本周制造业用工量价双双季节性回升，但同比超过去年同期，或反映出制造企业"抢出口"趋势仍在延续。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房、车销售走弱，服务消费表现分化。 ①房地产、汽车销售均回落，家电销售均价下行。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房销量增速也有回落，3月 70城新房、二手房价格各线城市同比降幅继续收窄。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速由升转降，批发有所回升， 家电价格下行。 ②随着天气转暖，室外游玩需求增多，本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流量双双转升。不过，电影市场 表现仍旧惨淡，上周电影票房位于历年同期低位，同时上周酒店入住率和可售房间均价双双下行，均不及去年 同期。 外需： 出口数量下行，美计划对中国船舶加征港口费。 ①4月关税影响或初步显现，集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所下行，但考虑到关税政策朝令 夕改，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢出口需求。 ②美计划对所有停靠在美的中国制造船舶根据所载货物量收取费用，具体行动将分半年后和三年后两个阶段执 行。 ②本周螺纹钢产量增速转降，库存低位续降，价格继续 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production levels, and economic indicators. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price decreased by 2.66% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In mid-February, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises reached a six-month high of 2.13 million tons [3] - Price changes for key materials include rebar down 2.65%, cement price index down 0.01%, rubber down 1.73%, coke down 3.60%, coking coal down 1.64%, and iron ore down 3.59% [3] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.17 percentage points, while the cement and asphalt operating rates changed by +1.00 percentage points and -2.3 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by +1.38% and -0.74% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at 36 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1015 yuan/ton [4] - The operating rate for flat glass this week remained stable at 76.09% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [5] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel up 0.06%, copper down 0.80%, and aluminum down 1.01% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.51%, up 2.16 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore prices have retreated from a seven-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum is at 20,620 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [6] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 142,500 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from last week [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.03 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between盘螺 (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 290 yuan/ton, up 11.54% from last week [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1250.65 points, down 5.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 74.50%, down 0.50 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 2.22%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which increased by 5.34% [10] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is 38.89% and 58.02%, respectively [10] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]