Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of China's economy in the first half of the year, with key indicators showing better-than-expected growth, which provides support for the market [1][2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The industrial added value in June grew by 6.8%, exceeding expectations of 5.5% [2][3]. - The service sector's added value increased by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0%, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [3]. - In terms of trade, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year was 217.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% [5][6]. Industrial Performance - The significant increase in industrial added value suggests improved production efficiency and higher sales revenue, which typically correlates with increased profits for companies [2][3]. Export Dynamics - Despite potential challenges in the second half of the year, long-term support for exports remains strong due to factors such as the competitive edge of Chinese products and a diversified trade structure [6][5]. Financial Data Insights - June financial data showed a substantial recovery, with M1 growth rising by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, marking a five-year high for the same period. Social financing also exceeded expectations, indicating robust credit demand [8][9]. - The increase in M1 is attributed to government projects, reduced debt repayment impacts, and high foreign trade settlement volumes [8][9]. Market Implications - The positive financial indicators, including the expansion of credit and social financing, are expected to support market risk appetite and potentially lead to favorable stock market performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products on July 15, 2025 [2]. - Different commodities show diverse trends such as gold and silver are expected to rise, while copper is under pressure due to increased inventory [2][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday's closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 781.40, up 1.01%. ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise with a trend strength of 1. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9207, up 1.87%. SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 208 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,400, down 0.04%. LME copper inventory rose to 109,625 tons [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to run under pressure with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22,250, down 0.58%. LME zinc inventory increased to 113,400 tons [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Focus on the consumption during the peak season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17,085, up 0.06%. LME lead inventory rose to 260,950 tons [2][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 266,720, up 1.05%. LME tin inventory increased to 2,095 tons [2][19][21]. - **Aluminum**: Under pressure in the off - season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415, down 280. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 48.30 million tons [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 121,100, down 290 [2][26][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between reality and macro factors with a trend strength of 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,715, up 5 [2][26][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Policy disturbances on the supply side, and follow - up actual progress should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. The 2509 contract closed at 66,480, up 2,200 [2][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market news has spurred the price to rise on the disk with a trend strength of 1. Si2509 closed at 8,695, up 280 [2][35][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances, and spot trading should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. PS2508 closed at 41,765, up 435 [2][35][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations and expected to oscillate strongly with a trend strength of 0. The futures price closed at 766.5, up 2.5 [2][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. RB2510 closed at 3,138, up 5; HC2510 closed at 3,276, up 3 [2][40][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The steel tender pricing has been settled, and the market is slightly boosted with a trend strength of 0. Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5484, up 24; Manganese Silicon 2509 closed at 5782, up 36 [2][45][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly, and coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly. Coke's trend strength is 0, and coking coal's is 1. Coke J2509 closed at 1525, up 5.5; Coking Coal JM2509 closed at 920, up 7 [2][48][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize with a trend strength of 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 [2][53][56]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and the price will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 788, up 0.3% [2][57][59]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: In a unilateral oscillating market [2][60]. - **PTA**: Monitor the production cut situation of filament factories [2][60]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, in a unilateral oscillating market, and positive spreads can be bought at low prices [2][60].

Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][2] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected growth of 5.5% [1][2] - The service sector's added value grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% [2][3] Trade and Exports - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export amounted to 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Exports reached 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [5] - In June, the total import and export scale hit 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, also up by 7.2% [6] Financial Data - M1 growth in June rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, the highest for the same period in nearly five years [8][10] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding market expectations [1][8] - The demand for credit from residents and enterprises showed signs of recovery, with new RMB loans in June reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]

Earnings Reports - Major companies such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Netflix (NFLX.O), and TSMC (TSM.N) are scheduled to release their Q2 earnings next week [1]. Economic Data - Key economic data to be released next week includes China's Q2 GDP year-on-year, June trade balance, and June industrial output year-on-year [1]. - In the U.S., June CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 will be published [1]. Federal Reserve Activities - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, and several Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week [1].

Report Date - The report is dated July 10, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3978 and 4000 points and support at 3940 and 3930 points [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 10, 2025 [2][33] - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc. are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation; silver and soybean meal are expected to be in a weak - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025 [1][2] Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI continued to rise. New employment - stabilizing policies were introduced, and market supervision strengthened fair competition [8][9] - **International News**: Trump proposed tariff increases on multiple countries. The Fed showed differences in interest rate outlooks, and the EU prepared counter - measures against the US in trade disputes [9][10] Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On July 9, COMEX gold futures rose 0.17%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% [11] - **Crude Oil**: On July 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [11] - **Base Metals**: On July 9, LME copper futures fell 1.33%, and LME zinc and aluminum futures rose [11] Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend with weakened upward momentum and increased downward pressure. It is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation in July [12][13][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 9, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year and thirty - year futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 10 [33][38] - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures showed different trends on July 9, 2025, and their trends on July 10 are predicted, such as gold futures being in a strong - biased oscillation and silver futures being in a weak - biased oscillation [41][46]

Macro Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [5] - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the average economic growth rate in China during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan reached 5.5%, with an expected economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during this period [5] Industry Dynamics - The national marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with related stocks including China COSCO Shipping (601919) and China Shipbuilding Industry (600150) [6] - BYD has launched "L4-level automatic parking," with institutions optimistic about the incremental component opportunities, related stocks include Desay SV (002920) and Bertel (603596) [6] - Since 2025, despite overall revenue pressure on innovative pharmaceutical companies, the export growth rate has turned positive, with related stocks including BeiGene (688235) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) [6] Company Focus - Northern Rare Earth (600111) expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a growth of 1883% to 2015% compared to the same period last year [7] - Shenglong Development (002299) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [7] - Guibao Pet (301498) plans to invest 650 million yuan from its own funds to build an intelligent warehousing and digital sorting center project [7] - Baoming Technology (002992) has developed a fourth-generation composite copper foil product in response to future market demands for high safety and ultra-fast charging in lithium batteries, which has undergone customer sample testing [7] Market Review and Outlook - On July 9, the market opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3512 points during the day but closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points, failing to stay above 3500 points [8] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%, with a total trading volume of 1.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as diversified finance, cultural media, medical services, banking, and cement materials saw gains, while insurance, non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding, wind power equipment, and semiconductors experienced notable declines [8] - The market is showing increased divergence, with leading sectors lacking sustainability, contributing to cautious buying behavior among investors [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily investment analysis and trend forecasts for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, influenced by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, macro - economic environment, and industry news [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Inventory increase puts pressure on copper prices. The current trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Multiple countries have announced measures to increase copper production, and LME's new warehouse in Hong Kong has attracted copper storage [5][7]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to run within a range. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data have been released [8][9]. Lead - Lead is supported by expectations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data are relevant [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum's center of gravity is moving up; alumina is short - term strong due to the rainy season in Guinea; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [14][16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's upward elasticity is limited, and the price is under pressure at a low level. Stainless steel's inventory is slightly digested, and the price is recovering but with limited elasticity. The trend strengths are 0 for both nickel and stainless steel. Multiple industry news items, such as production changes in Indonesian nickel - related factories, have been reported [17][23]. Lithium Carbonate - There is an expected increase in the mining end, and the warehouse receipts are rising but the total amount is low. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market volatility is increasing. Polysilicon's volatility is intensifying, and attention should be paid to policies. The trend strengths are 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon. Yunnan has issued policies to promote the photovoltaic industry [27][30]. Iron Ore - Iron ore's expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. China's June CPI data has been released [31]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for both. Multiple industry news items, such as steel production and inventory data and Vietnam's anti - dumping measures, have been reported [34][37]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for ferrosilicon and 1 for silicomanganese. Multiple industry news items, including price quotes and steel mill procurement information, have been reported [38][40]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke is in a slightly upward - trending shock; coking coal is affected by news and is also in a slightly upward - trending shock. The trend strengths are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal. Price and inventory data, as well as industry news, have been provided [41][44]. Steam Coal - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation [46][49]. Forest Products Logs - Logs are experiencing a main contract switch and are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. Trump has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [50][52]. Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), PTA, and MEG - PX is in a single - sided shock market; PTA requires attention to the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts and a month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is in a single - sided shock market, and a month - spread long - position arbitrage should be considered at low levels. The trend strengths are 0 for PX, 0 for PTA, and 1 for MEG. Market supply and demand information and price data have been provided [53][60]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber is in a slightly upward - trending shock; synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector's rebound [27][29]. Asphalt - Asphalt is temporarily in a shock, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising crude oil prices [31]. LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, and PVC - LLDPE is short - term strong in a shock; PP's spot price is falling, and the trading is light; caustic soda is short - term strong; pulp is in a slightly upward - trending shock; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is short - term in a shock; urea is in a slight upward - trending pattern; styrene is short - term in a shock; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is in a short - term wide - range shock; PVC is short - term in a shock and will face pressure later [22][51]. Energy and Shipping Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session performance is weak, and it is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a short - term shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [44]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 08 contract is in a shock consolidation, and a light short - position in the 10 contract can be held [44]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, and Peanut - Palm oil is pushed up by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans; soybean meal may be in a weak shock due to trade concerns and the decline of US soybeans; soybean's spot price is stable, and the market is in a shock; corn is in a shock adjustment; sugar is in a consolidation period; cotton's old - crop inventory shortage expectation continues to support the futures price; attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices in the peak season for eggs; the sentiment in the live - pig spot market is weakening; peanuts have support at the bottom [44][70]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber is short - term in a shock, and a reverse arbitrage should be considered at high levels; bottle - chip is short - term in a shock, and a long - PR short - PF strategy can be adopted [44][57]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a shock operation [58].

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year in June, ending a four-month downward trend, influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.1% [3]. - The decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year, reducing its downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [3]. - International commodity price fluctuations led to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing about 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, marking a new high in nearly 14 months [3]. PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a consistent decline in June, but some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [8]. - The construction of a unified national market and increased efforts to combat disorderly low-price competition are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors [8]. - Prices in the automotive sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, have shown signs of recovery, with respective year-on-year declines narrowing [8]. Consumer Demand and Living Costs - The demand for housing rentals has increased during the graduation season, leading to a 0.1% rise in rental prices [6]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a rise in prices for daily necessities and clothing, with general daily goods and clothing prices increasing by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively [9]. - High-tech industries are also seeing price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year [9].

2025年07月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 731.0 | -1.5 | -0. 20% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is shifting towards macroeconomic data, particularly the actual evolution of economic growth and inflation, despite recent policy uncertainties [1] - UBS expects a slowdown in US economic growth but does not foresee a recession, with consumer spending likely to moderate due to inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation data is anticipated to become evident in the coming months, with economic growth expected to weaken further by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, with a forecast of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1] - The assumption is that the effective tariff rate will stabilize at the current level of 15%, which is not expected to trigger an economic recession [1] Group 3 - As policy outlook becomes clearer, UBS suggests that market volatility will gradually return to normal, advising investors to prepare for opportunities in 2026 [2] - Investment strategies include continuing to allocate to gold for political risk hedging, investing in quality fixed-income products, and positioning for long-term equity investments [3] Group 4 - UBS has upgraded the financial sector to an "attractive" rating due to benefits from regulatory easing and capital returns post-stress tests [3] - The firm maintains an "attractive" rating for communication services, healthcare, utilities, and information technology, citing strong growth drivers and defensive attributes [3]