Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the SHFE tin 2510 contract experienced a tug - of - war between bulls and bears in a complex market environment, with significant price fluctuations. Positive macro data spurred active capital inflows, driving up the price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The price of the SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of first declining and then rising. In the first half of the week, it fluctuated downward due to macro - economic data and market sentiment. In the second half, with marginal improvement in macro sentiment and supply - side tightness, bullish forces strengthened, leading to a strong rebound and an overall price increase. The price fluctuated sharply, and the battle between bulls and bears was intense [3]. - **Variety Price**: The report provides detailed price data for multiple SHFE tin contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and other information. For example, the sn2510 contract had a weekly opening price of 273,340, a high of 274,900, a low of 268,010, and a closing price of 273,950 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts were 7,326 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day. The cumulative decrease in SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts in the past week was 71 tons [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Aspect**: On the supply side, tin ore mining in production areas such as Yunnan in China has been continuously restricted, and some smelters continued their maintenance in September, constraining the output of concentrates and supporting the spot price. On the demand side, the traditional electronic solder field was weak due to the drag of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with lackluster demand growth for SHFE tin. The lack of demand led to light trading in the spot market and limited upward momentum for the spot price [8]. - **Macro Factors**: The year - on - year growth rate of the US PPI in August unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, and the core PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. This strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, weakening the US dollar index and providing some support for the US - dollar - denominated SHFE tin price [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook Given the rigid constraints on raw materials and maintenance plans, the smelter operating rate has dropped significantly, and there are no signs of substantial improvement in the short term. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the tin price is likely to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [10].

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impacts on the futures market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [2][3][5] Key Economic Events and Their Impacts September 15 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and the report's impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods. If 1 - 8 months' urban fixed - asset investment growth is slightly lower than the previous value, 8 - month total retail sales of consumer goods growth is slightly higher, and 8 - month industrial added value growth is basically the same as the previous value, the impact on relevant futures prices will be neutral. Expected 1 - 8 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment is 1.4% (1 - 7 months was 1.6%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of above - scale industrial added value is 5.7% (7 months was 5.7%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods is 3.8% (7 months was 3.7%); 8 - month surveyed unemployment rate is expected to be 5.2% (7 months was 5.2%) [4] September 16 - The US Department of Commerce will release US August retail sales at 20:30. Expected August retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.5%); expected core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.3%). A slightly lower retail sales monthly rate will mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise but mildly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [5] - The Federal Reserve will release US August industrial output at 21:15. Expected August industrial output monthly rate is 0% (previous value was - 0.1%). A slightly higher industrial output monthly rate will mildly help non - ferrous metals futures prices rise but mildly suppress gold and silver futures prices [8] September 17 - The US Department of Commerce will release August building permits and new housing starts at 20:30. Expected August annualized total of building permits is 1.37 million (previous value was 1.362 million); expected August annualized total of new housing starts is 1.4 million (previous value was 1.428 million) [9] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 20:30, expected to cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% [10] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12 at 22:30. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) will release the global metal supply - demand report, and its impact on relevant non - ferrous metals futures prices should be noted [12] September 18 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and economic forecast summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut to 4% - 4.25%, and a very slight possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. If the monetary policy statement and Powell's speech imply continuous 25 - basis - point rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 (US Eastern Time), it will help commodity and index futures prices rise but suppress Treasury bond futures prices [13] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [14] - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 at 20:30. Expected number is 270,000 (previous value was 263,000). A slightly higher number will mildly suppress industrial product futures prices (except gold and silver) but mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise [15] September 19 - The Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield target unchanged [16] Other Factors to Note - Pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials for their impacts on the futures market [2]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data continues to show resilience, with August PPI reading at -2.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - Financial data is on an upward trend, supporting the real economy and investment environment, which provides significant backing for the domestic capital market [1] - The focus moving forward will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, which currently has a high probability and is expected to positively impact global risk asset prices [1] Group 2 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering short-term moving averages and reaching new highs [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, indicating strong market elasticity, while average daily trading volume decreased to approximately 23,000 billion [2] - Market hotspots were primarily in the TMT and upstream raw materials sectors, with technology and small-cap stocks leading in gains [2] - The market is attempting to resume an upward trend after technical consolidation, with major indices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs [2] - However, there are concerns regarding declining trading volume and rapid rotation of market hotspots, suggesting potential market divergence and a focus on structural trends [2]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A sustained move under the 52-week moving average indicates the presence of sellers, potentially driving prices toward $61.12 and $60.26, which could trigger further downside momentum [1] - Overcoming the 52-week moving average suggests the return of buyers, with initial resistance at $64.56 and $65.41, followed by a swing top at $66.03, which could lead to a surge towards $68.70 [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent price increases in crude oil were driven by a Ukrainian drone attack that suspended crude loadings at a major Russian port, raising concerns about potential reductions in Russian crude exports [3] - Despite the temporary lift from geopolitical events, Brent and WTI benchmarks fell sharply, indicating market skepticism towards price rallies without substantial supply disruptions [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators have raised concerns about demand prospects, with revised jobs data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated, alongside a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index, the largest since January [5] - The combination of slower job growth and persistent inflation raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates soon, which may stall economic activity and reduce energy consumption [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 4th, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest, and a 0.29% decline in LME nickel. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, a decrease in nickel ore arrivals last week, and an increase in port inventories. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. The demand side showed a decrease in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Indonesian unrest, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on September 4th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated at a low level, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The spot market had weak low - price trading, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. On the supply side, stainless - steel production will increase in September. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. At the cost end, the prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome have risen. Overall, the current macro - sentiment has a greater impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to previous days, with the near - month contract closing at 121450 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,598 lots (- 20,952), and the open interest was 82,558 lots (- 2,171). The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel contracts (electronic and on - site) decreased, with the electronic - disk closing at 15,236 dollars/ton, down 68 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 5,254 lots (- 645). The price ratio of Shanghai and LME nickel futures was 7.96, down 0.03 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products (such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel) decreased. For example, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract decreased by 50 yuan to 2,050 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were stable. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. Demand: Ternary production decreased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - SHFE nickel inventory decreased to 21,739 tons (- 121 tons), LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat at 4,100 tons [2] 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,009 lots (+ 11,460), and the open interest was 82,425 lots (- 4,439) [2] 3.2.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various stainless - steel products (such as 304/2B coil - trimmed, 304/No.1 coil) decreased in some regions. The low - price trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium widened [2] 3.2.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production will increase in September. Demand: Terminal demand is weak [1] 3.2.4 Inventory - SHFE stainless - steel inventory increased to 100,431 tons (+ 127 tons), and the 300 - series social inventory decreased to 622,700 tons (- 3,300 tons) [2] 3.3 Other Information - The US 8 - month "small non - farm" data was 54,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 people, and the previous value was revised up from 104,000 to 106,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased to 237,000, the highest level since June [1] - Centaurus Metals encountered unexpected obstacles in the development of its flagship Jaguar nickel project in Brazil. The company was informed that it needed to upgrade the power transmission to meet the long - term energy needs of the mine. The Jaguar project has 1.2 million tons of nickel content [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with sectors such as consumption, photovoltaic equipment, banking, and securities performing well, while aerospace, communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals lagged behind [1][2] - The current A-share market is benefiting from favorable internal and external policies, with abundant liquidity and a noticeable improvement in market funding, as evidenced by trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days [1] - Global allocation funds are flowing into the A-share market, with household savings accelerating their shift to capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] Group 2 - The market is under short-term pressure from overbought conditions, necessitating a technical adjustment, while liquidity remains a key foundation for the market [2] - Future market directions to watch include the potential for a second phase of a bull market with rapid sector rotation, focusing on areas with low valuations and improving economic conditions [2] - There is an expectation for policy signals to intensify in response to economic pressures in the second half of the year, particularly regarding supply-side measures that could catalyze cyclical sectors in the medium to long term [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the financial products industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the government bond index experienced a "sideways-down-bottoming" trend in August, with expectations for a potential recovery in September [1][3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with weak PMI and PPI data, but moderate consumption growth, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [3][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming macroeconomic data and policy decisions, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could influence domestic monetary policy [40][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The government bond index displayed a "sideways-down-bottoming" pattern from August 1 to August 29, 2025, with fluctuations influenced by central bank operations and market sentiment [12][20]. - Technical analysis indicates that the risk level of the government bond index reached a low point on August 22, suggesting a potential for a rebound [25][26]. 2. Event-Driven Review 2.1. Macroeconomic Aspects - Recent macroeconomic data, including a PMI of 49.3% in July and a CPI increase of 0.4%, reflect a mixed economic outlook, with implications for bond market performance [29][30]. - The report notes that the July industrial output growth of 5.7% shows signs of slowing, which could negatively impact bond pricing [31][32]. 2.2. Policy Aspects - The report discusses recent policy announcements, including the introduction of new financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission, which may increase bond supply and affect interest rates [35][36]. - The announcement of VAT on new bond interest income is expected to impact market dynamics, particularly for newly issued bonds [37][38]. 3. Index Outlook 3.1. Key Event Forecast - Future bond market performance will be driven by macroeconomic data, policy developments, and liquidity events, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators [40][41]. - The report anticipates that if macroeconomic data improves, it could suppress bond market demand, while weaker data may bolster bond prices [41]. 3.2. Index Trend Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market is nearing a bottom, with limited downside potential in the short term, and highlights the importance of equity market movements as a key variable for bond market performance [46][47]. - The report indicates that if equity markets experience a pullback, funds may flow back into the bond market, presenting potential investment opportunities [60]. 3.3. Related ETF Products - The report mentions the "Fuguo Zhongzhai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF," which aims to closely track the index and has a total market value of 46.546 billion yuan as of August 29, 2025 [61][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 29, 2025, including the strength or weakness of the shock, resistance levels, and support levels [2]. - The report also analyzes the market conditions of various futures on August 28, 2025, including the opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, and provides an outlook for the August trend of some futures contracts [43]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, setting goals for 2030 and 2035 [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce carried out activities such as visiting Canada, meeting with US officials, and supporting foreign - trade enterprises [8]. - Market supervision总局 carried out comprehensive rectification of market competition order [9]. - The Central Education Work Leading Group issued a plan for the adjustment and optimization of higher - education disciplines and specialties [9]. - US economic data showed that the Q2 GDP growth rate was revised upwards, and the core PCE price index was lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected [9]. - A lawsuit related to the independence of the Federal Reserve was filed [9]. - The euro - zone economic sentiment index declined in August, and the EU proposed legislative proposals related to tariffs [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 28, international precious - metal futures generally rose, and oil prices rebounded due to inventory decline. London base metals all rose, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [11][12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the stock - index futures of IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends of opening, rising, and falling, and the A - share market generally rose, while the Hong Kong stock market fell. The US and European stock markets had different trends [13][16][17]. - It is expected that on August 29, stock - index futures will be strongly volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [19]. Bond Futures - On August 28, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts showed a weak trend, and the central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rose [37]. - It is expected that on August 29, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts will be weakly and widely volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [38][41]. Precious - Metal Futures - On August 28, the gold and silver futures main contracts showed a rising trend. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will be widely volatile, and on August 29, they will be strongly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [43][50]. Base - Metal Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and poly - silicon futures showed different trends of rising, falling, and fluctuating. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [52][61][67]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of coke, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [88][90][96]. Agricultural Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 29, they will be weakly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [107][110].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Alumina is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term oversupply situation. It is advisable to go short at high prices in the mid - term, with a short - term operating range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton [2][7]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling if demand does not improve [7]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are predicted to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum is likely to converge, with a reference operating range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (8.18 - 8.22) - Alumina prices were weak this week due to inventory accumulation and rising warehouse receipts. With narrowing profits, cost support is strong, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly next week [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations cooled, while domestic policies provided support. Supply increased slowly, costs decreased slightly, and demand was the core issue. High prices restricted short - term purchases, but inventory accumulation slowed down [10]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices also oscillated narrowly. The market improved marginally, with social inventory decreasing for the first time since mid - April. Tight scrap aluminum supply supported costs, and some factories reduced production due to tax policy adjustments. Demand was structurally differentiated, and orders showed signs of improvement [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Terminal Demand - US employment data in July was worse than expected, and previous data was revised down significantly. The labor market cooled significantly. The probability of a September interest - rate cut increased to 93.4% due to relatively mild inflation pressure [13][17][18]. - China's core CPI in July increased year - on - year to 0.8%, indicating continuous recovery of domestic demand. The PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, mainly affected by the traditional off - season and extreme weather [24][30]. - Real estate sales weakened on a weekly basis. From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. New construction and investment are expected to continue to decline in 2025 [36][40]. - China's automobile production and sales data in July were strong. From January to July, production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively year - on - year. The inventory warning index improved, indicating better market sentiment [41][45]. 3. Industry Supply - Demand Fundamentals Aluminum Bauxite - In July, imports increased by 10.7% month - on - month. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports will gradually emerge. Domestic production is relatively stable, with limited short - term supply increase [47][50]. - Domestic bauxite prices remained stable this week, while the import bulk market had few transactions. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure of barge transportation is expected to appear at the end of the month [51][61]. Alumina - In July, the profitability improved, and production increased by 5.4% month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The market is in a stock - piling trend, with inventory accumulating in factories and warehouse receipts increasing [62][66][68]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In July, production increased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased significantly. The operating capacity in Yunnan increased due to capacity replacement. Net imports increased in July but are expected to decline slightly in August [72][76][84]. - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises showed signs of recovery, mainly due to new orders in the automotive and photovoltaic sectors. The short - term inventory still has the expectation of accumulation, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.8 tons, with a slower rate of accumulation [85][91][94]. - From January to July, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [96]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - In July, scrap aluminum production increased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the prices of domestic and imported scrap aluminum were firm. The industry's operating rate was 53.0% this week, with increased differentiation. The import volume in July reached a four - year low and is expected to remain low in August [99][109][110]. - The weekly inventory accumulation of cast aluminum alloy slowed down. The price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with cost support and marginal improvement in demand during the off - peak to peak season transition [117][121].

Group 1 - The market and the Federal Reserve seem to have reached a consensus on a rate cut in September following Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - The upcoming data releases will influence the dot plot, particularly whether there will be a total rate cut of 75 basis points (three cuts) or 50 basis points (two cuts) by the end of the year [1] - Wrightson ICAP macro analysts speculate that the median dot plot may indicate only two rate cuts for the year, but changes in the risk landscape could lead to a downward adjustment, suggesting a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [1]