Market Performance - The three major US stock indices fell by over 2% last week, with the S&P 500 down 2.6%, the Dow Jones down 2.5%, and the Nasdaq down 2.5%[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively[5] Key Economic Events - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, citing slow negotiation progress and criticizing EU automotive policies[4] - US existing home sales fell by 0.5% in April, with a seasonally adjusted annualized sales total of 4 million units, down 2% year-on-year[4] - The US Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.3, marking a three-month high[4] Corporate Highlights - Oracle plans to invest approximately $40 billion in Nvidia chips to support its new data center for OpenAI[1] - Baidu reported Q1 2025 revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with core revenue up 7%[9] - BYD's electric vehicle sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time, and the company will enter the Hang Seng Tech Index next month[12] Risks - The report highlights risks including macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and currency volatility[2]

研究报告 橡胶周报 胶价总体延续弱势，盘面或将震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14530-15115 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡回落，总体小幅下跌。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14535 元/吨，当周下跌 370 点，跌幅 2.48%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡回落，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面看，5 月 21 日，欧盟对中国轮胎启动 反倾销调查，利空橡胶。从基本面来看，供给方面，天气扰动 主产区割胶工作，成本端存在支撑。天然橡胶进口增加明显。 需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均微幅回落。成品库存持续累 库，处于历史高位。终端车市方面，4 月汽车产销量均同比小幅 增长 ...

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for April on May 19, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [2] - CICC estimates that the fiscal subsidy scale for the old-for-new policy exceeded 38 billion yuan in April, maintaining a strong impact on retail sales growth at 3.3 percentage points [2] - The retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to grow by 14.4% year-on-year in April, with overall retail sales growth projected at around 5.5% [2] Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set for May 19 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3] - Analysts predict a drop of approximately 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.2 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in savings of about 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [3] LPR Announcement - The latest 1-year and 5-year LPR will be announced on May 20, with the previous rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [4] - Following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, the LPR is expected to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [4] Stock Unlocking - A total of 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from May 19 to May 23, with 8 stocks having a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are: SiTeWei-W (7.007 billion yuan), XinDian Software (4.865 billion yuan), and YanTian Port (4.459 billion yuan) [6][7] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年05月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区减产集中，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 736. 5 | -0.5 | -0. 07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | ...

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证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

2025.05.06-05.09 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期由于宏观经济数据边际改善削弱避险需求、贸易摩擦短期缓和叠加 技术性调整，导致了黄金价格高位回落。但中长期支撑逻辑未变：美国 财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。需关注5月非农数据及美 联储缩表节奏变化，若地缘风险再起或通胀反弹，贵金属可能重获上行 动能。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 五一长假临近，注意风险，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：758－765，上方压力829-836。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v | | 黄金(au) v | | --- | --- | --- | | 品和立新 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 · | | | | | 品和诊断 | 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资記 | | - AI品种诊 ...