Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Urea - On January 6, urea futures closed higher, and the spot market rose slightly. The overall trading atmosphere improved, but the short - term high - supply situation was difficult to change, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The urea price was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of subsequent devices and the progress of downstream industrial and agricultural demand [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, and the spot market was relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of the caustic soda market was expected to be stable and weak, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. PVC prices rose rapidly on January 6, but the supply - demand contradiction increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply of domestic petroleum benzene was stable, but the port inventory was high. The overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level. The short - term supply - demand of styrene was in a tight balance, but the rebound space was limited [3]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber faced increased pressure from overseas production areas, but the cost support strengthened. The downstream replenishment was cautious, and the inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The rubber price was driven up by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [4]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, oil prices rose first and then fell. The short - term price of Brent crude oil was expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rebounded, but the supply - demand situation was still under pressure, and the price rebound space was limited. Glass prices rebounded at night, but the demand was expected to weaken, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion of the middle - stream [9]. LPG - LPG prices rose, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term market was affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [11]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to rise. The inland market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the port inventory was expected to enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter, and the market was expected to maintain a strong - fluctuating pattern [13][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply of PX and PTA was expected to be high in January, but the demand was weak. The prices of PX and PTA were expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand of MEG was expected to accumulate inventory, and the price was under pressure. The supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip was weak, and the prices were expected to follow the raw materials [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, the 01 contract was 1694 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 05 contract was 1768 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the 09 contract was 1730 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the main contract was 2293 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 84 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 48 yuan/ton, up 6.25% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.25%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials were stable, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 0.61% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of small - particle urea in most regions rose slightly, and the FOB prices in China and the US Gulf were stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily production of urea increased to 204,000 tons, the weekly production decreased by 0.49%, the plant - level inventory decreased by 4.65%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.50% [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the market price of PVC in East China increased, the prices of futures contracts V2601 and V2605 rose by 3.3%, and the basis and spreads changed [2]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was stable, the demand of downstream industries was weak, and the inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3%, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products changed [3]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene in East China increased by 0.7%, and the spreads and basis of styrene futures changed [3]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7%. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On January 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis and spreads changed [4]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: In November, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and the operating rates of tire - related industries changed [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber increased by 4.48%, and the inventory in Qingdao showed different changes in inbound and outbound rates [4]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.72%, the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.04%, and the spreads between different crude oil varieties and contracts changed [6][7]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between different refined oil contracts changed [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions were stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts changed slightly [9]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and weekly production of soda ash decreased, the inventory of soda ash increased significantly, and the demand of downstream industries decreased [9]. LPG - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [11]. - **LPG Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased slightly, the port inventory decreased by 8.41%, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [11]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Methanol Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [13][14][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of PX - related products increased [18]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, etc. changed slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees of polyester products changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [18].

Market Overview - As of January 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse stocks at 97,925 tons, with cancellations of 8,400 tons, resulting in a net decrease of 750 tons. Total zinc inventory stands at 106,325 tons, down by 1,300 tons [1] - The Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Production Forecast - Refined zinc production is projected to be 552,100 tons in December 2025, which is below expectations. However, production is expected to increase to 569,400 tons in January 2026 [3] Institutional Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall market sentiment is warming. The treatment charges (TC) have stabilized due to the opening of the import window, but are expected to decline in January. The domestic raw material supply remains tight in the short term, while the supply side is expected to loosen in the long term. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts is providing support for Shanghai zinc prices. The outlook suggests that while low domestic inventory supports prices, there is a lack of upward driving force in the fundamentals, leading to a range-bound market [4] - Guangzhou Futures anticipates that the medium to long-term focus for zinc prices will gradually shift upward. However, due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter, short-term upward potential is limited. Prices are expected to trend upward after the holiday, followed by a transition into a range-bound market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Market sentiment has declined, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Hold short positions around 15,700 [1]. Pure Benzene - The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [4]. Styrene - The rebound space is limited. EB02/03 should be treated bearishly above 6,800, and short the EB processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the price rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the inventory inflection point. - Glass: The upward space of the disk is limited, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of demand [5]. Methanol - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to destocking in the first quarter of the next year, which will support the 05 contract [7][8][9]. LLDPE and PP - PP: The pressure on the 05 contract is still large if there are few planned maintenance; PE: The overall pressure is still large in January [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - PX: The upstream PX price is expected to adjust before the festival. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the medium - term and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - PTA: It follows raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to trade in the high - level range of 4,800 - 5,200 and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at a high level near 4,000 for EG2605 and conduct relevant spread trading. - Short - fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations. Short the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle chip: It follows the cost side. Short the processing margin on rallies [14]. LPG No specific overall view is provided, just price and inventory data. Crude Oil - The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [18]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the basis of whole milk and non - standard prices changed significantly [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1000.00%, and the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of some countries decreased in November, and the tire production and export increased [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some upstream products remained stable, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased [4]. - **Benzene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed slightly, and the processing margins of some products improved [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased, and the operating rates of some products changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged, and the 01 contract price decreased slightly [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions decreased, and the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased [5]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: The operating rate and production of soda ash decreased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [9]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The contract prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of LLDPE and PP decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of LLDPE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as PX and ethylene changed, and the spreads changed [14]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA and related spreads changed, and the processing margins improved [14]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG and related spreads changed, and the inventory increased [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of polyester products changed [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads and basis decreased [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The refinery storage ratio of LPG increased, and the port inventory decreased [16]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products decreased, and the spreads changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market is experiencing slight declines, with the main contract reported at 3123.00 yuan, down 0.45% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the rebar market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term [1] - Guodu Futures suggests light positions ahead of the holiday, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - New Century Futures anticipates that steel prices will continue to oscillate at the bottom, influenced by recent policy changes and production plans [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of five major steel products is reported at 7.9682 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.1%, while total inventory stands at 12.5799 million tons, down 2.8% [2] - The consumption of construction materials has decreased by 3.2% week-on-week, while plate consumption has increased by 1.4% [2] - The market is shifting focus from "de-stocking in the off-season" to "timing and speed of inventory accumulation," suggesting potential pressure on prices, especially for construction materials [2] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent policy changes include export license management and a focus on controlling high-energy projects, which may create short-term positive sentiment [3] - The implementation of export licenses is expected to limit steel exports, leading to a downward adjustment in export expectations for next year [3] - The overall steel price is projected to remain under pressure due to these policy changes and the anticipated production adjustments in January [3]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI February contract closing at $57.95 per barrel, down 0.22%, and Brent February contract at $61.92 per barrel, down 0.03% [2][13] - The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still down 43 rigs year-on-year, a decrease of 7.3% [2][13] - India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to drop to around 1.1 million barrels per day in December, marking a three-year low for Russian oil shipments to India by 2025 [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained stable at 2473 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil fell by 0.23% to 2977 yuan/ton [3][14] - The first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export tax rebate quotas for 2026 is set at 8 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [3][14] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with high-sulfur fuel oil also supported by increased sales of marine fuel oil [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, with stable port arrivals of diluted asphalt [4][15] - Domestic refineries are not expected to be affected by geopolitical events in January, although production is slightly increasing [4][15] - Demand in southern regions remains strong, while northern regions face higher shipping pressures [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5 yuan/ton to 15670 yuan/ton, while NR main contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12690 yuan/ton [5][17] - The overseas production season is expected to last over a month, with raw material prices still supported [5][17] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations for rubber [5][17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5144 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [6][18] - PX futures closed at 7316 yuan/ton, up 0.63%, with spot prices at $894/ton [6][18] - The polyester production load is expected to decline further due to reduced production plans from major manufacturers [6][18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2182 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $249-$253/ton [7][19] - The shutdown of Iranian facilities is expected to reduce imports in January, while port inventories are anticipated to recover [7][19] - The balance between supply and demand is expected to keep methanol prices stable [7][19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6300 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][20] - Supply is expected to remain high, while demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of low price fluctuations [8][20] - The overall market for polyolefins is driven by weak fundamentals, with significant pressure on inventory transfer to downstream [8][20] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight fluctuations, with prices for different grades ranging from 4470-4650 yuan/ton [9][21] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for PVC prices [9][21] - The market is characterized by a weak reality and strong expectations, limiting upward price movement [9][21] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1743 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [10][22] - Supply levels are declining due to equipment failures, while demand sentiment is improving [10][22] - The market is expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in supply and demand [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.19% [11][23] - The industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to increased maintenance and failures [11][23] - Demand remains weak, but external macroeconomic factors are providing some support to prices [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong increase, with the main contract closing at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.23% [12][24] - The supply of glass is expected to decrease as production lines are being shut down for maintenance [12][24] - Demand is gradually improving, but the overall market remains cautious due to weak end-user demand [12][24]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Economic Performance - Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus of +3.3% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5%[1] - The GDP price index increased by +3.8%, compared to an expected +2.7% and a previous value of +2.1%[1] Consumption and Inventory - Strong consumer spending contributed +2.39% to GDP growth, with a quarterly increase of +3.5%, up from +1.68% in the previous quarter[1] - Inventory changes had a marginal contribution of -0.22%, improving from -3.44% in the previous quarter, indicating a reduction in inventory drag[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to +1% in Q3, down from +4.4% in Q2, with non-residential fixed asset investment decreasing to +2.8%[1] - AI-related industry investment growth decelerated, with contributions to GDP from computer information equipment and software dropping significantly[1] Market Reactions - Initial market reactions to the strong GDP data indicated fears of economic overheating, leading to a rise in the dollar index and US Treasury yields, while equities and commodities fell[1] - Following the initial reaction, asset prices reversed, with US Treasury yields and the dollar declining, while equities rebounded[1] Future Outlook - Q4 2025 GDP growth is expected to significantly cool due to government shutdown impacts, with consumer spending showing signs of decline[2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated a potential -1.5% impact on Q4 GDP due to the government shutdown, alongside high base effects from Q3[2] Core Economic Indicators - The Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) annualized growth rate remained stable at +3.0%, only slightly up from +2.9% in the previous quarter, indicating resilient core economic growth[1] - Daily consumer spending growth has recently dropped to +0.156% year-on-year, suggesting a potential drag on Q4 GDP[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the overall upward trend of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down and gradually entered a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. This week, due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened and prices have corrected. The butadiene market shows a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, and the short - term fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are weakening. Overall, the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber may be compressed, and the futures price has corrected under the high - premium pattern. However, due to the strong expectations for butadiene, there is still some speculation, so it enters a short - term volatile pattern [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (02 contract), the daily closing price was 11,175 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 156,564 lots, a decrease of 17,363 lots; the open interest was 103,099 lots, a decrease of 630 lots; and the turnover was 881.139 million yuan, a decrease of 82.07 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 205; the monthly spread of BR01 - BR05 was - 95, a decrease of 10 [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene decreased or remained unchanged, while the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) increased by 150 yuan to 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan to 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 150 yuan to 7,625 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 25 yuan to 7,850 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.7608%, with no change; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 10,534 yuan/ton, with no change; and the cis - butadiene profit was 366 yuan/ton, with no change [1] 2. Industry News - As of December 17, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased [2] - As of December 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 36,000 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory change was small this period, there are still some trade - volume inventories and expectations of ocean - going vessel arrivals, so attention should be paid to the phased changes in inventory [2][3]