Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to remain at a low level year-on-year, with limited potential for improvement in the future, making it unlikely for PPI to turn positive within the year [1] Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market has been weakening since the second quarter, with the total sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing in the first six months declining by 3.5% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - In July, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, compared to a decrease of 8.4% in June [1] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - There is insufficient momentum among microeconomic entities, leading to weak investment from enterprises and low consumer spending willingness [1] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in the second quarter was 74%, showing a downward trend both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating continued weak demand [1] Group 3: Market Competition - The ongoing optimization of market competition is leading to a narrowing of price declines in related industries, but the sustained improvement effect remains to be observed [1]

全面释放财政政策效力，还需着力促进物价合理回升。同时，做好政策储备，必要时及时出台增量政 策，保障下半年财政支出强度。 二是财政支出向民生倾斜。7月以来，国家育儿补贴实施方案、逐步推行免费学前教育、向失能老年人 发放养老服务消费补贴、财政更大力度支持稳就业等政策措施出台，充分表明财政支出更加注重民生， 更多资金资源将"投资于人"。 财政支出端也体现了上述特征。上半年，一般公共预算支出分项中，社会保障和就业、教育、卫生健康 三大民生类支出增速分别达到9.2%、5.9%、4.3%，均高于总体3.4%的增速，合计占一般公共预算支出 的比重达到40.3%，创2019年以来同期新高；相比之下，农林水事务、城乡社区事务、交通运输三大基 建类的支出增速分别只有-7.8%、-4.2%、-3.1%，合计占比降至18.6%的多年同期低点。 与此同时，上半年，侧重民生兜底、政府运行的一般国债（52%）、地方一般债（57%）发行进度快于 侧重项目建设的地方专项债（49%），也一定程度反映了财政支出向民生倾斜的政策取向。 7月30日，中央政治局会议指出"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力""在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求"。 此前，国家育儿补 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Economic Growth Target**: China's economic growth target for 2025 is maintained at 5%, with a growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. The fiscal easing policy will continue in the second half, but the impact on nominal GDP and PPI may be limited due to moderate demand-side policies [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is showing signs of weakness, with significant inventory pressure despite some recovery in transaction volumes in core cities. The need to stabilize buyer expectations and improve product quality is emphasized [2][38][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations have been postponed, with a slightly hawkish stance from the U.S. The introduction of secondary tariffs on imported goose oil has caused market fluctuations, indicating ongoing sensitivity to trade tensions [1][6]. - **Policy Outlook**: The political bureau meeting expressed optimism about the economic situation, emphasizing policy coherence and stability. Incremental policies may become evident in Q4, focusing on improving fund efficiency [1][12][19]. - **Demand-Side Policies**: Demand-side policies are present but are less systematic compared to supply-side reforms. The impact on PPI and GDP is expected to be moderate [5][7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Capital Market Sentiment**: The capital market is expected to be more attractive and inclusive, with potential adjustments in IPO thresholds and margin trading data. Structural opportunities are highlighted despite a lack of clear performance drivers [1][23][28]. - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market faces challenges such as high inventory levels and declining prices, with a significant inventory of nearly 500 million square meters in 80 key cities, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 28 months [39][40]. - **Future Planning**: The upcoming five-year plan will dominate macroeconomic policy, focusing on high-level security and quality development, with energy, electricity, national security, and technological independence as key indicators [1][19]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Real Estate**: The market is stabilizing, but the pressure from inventory remains high. Core cities are showing some recovery, but overall, the market needs to address buyer confidence and product quality [38][41][42]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector is expected to recover faster than real estate, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption. The focus is on stable ROE and dividend yields in consumer and financial sectors [32][36]. - **Technology Sector**: The technology sector remains crucial, with strong support policies and potential for growth in areas like AI and cloud computing. The sector is seen as undervalued compared to global peers [31][37]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, with specific attention to the real estate market's challenges and the potential for recovery in consumer and technology sectors. The emphasis on policy stability and structural opportunities in the capital market suggests a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape.

Group 1: Residential Market Insights - The Hong Kong residential market saw a 17% month-on-month increase in total transaction volume in June, driven by a 28% surge in primary residential sales [1] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, residential prices are under pressure, with a 0.9% decline year-to-date and a 6.2% year-on-year decrease as of May [1] - The most sought-after residential properties are priced between 12 to 15 million HKD, with the most active areas being Wong Chuk Hang and Ma On Shan [1] - The luxury residential market recorded 54 transactions exceeding 78 million HKD in the second quarter, a 29% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The rental market for luxury properties is performing well, with a 0.7% month-on-month increase in May and a 1.4% increase year-to-date, driven by demand from non-local professionals and students [1] - The forecast for general residential prices is a potential decline of up to 3% this year, while luxury and general residential rents are expected to rise by 3% to 5% [1] Group 2: Office Market Dynamics - The Grade A office market is showing signs of recovery, with hedge funds being the primary tenants and significant leasing activity, such as Jane Street leasing 223,000 square feet in Central [2] - The demand for well-located, high-quality office spaces in Central remains strong, particularly for units sized between 3,000 to 5,000 square feet [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is performing well, attracting mainland enterprises, which is expected to boost office leasing demand in the second half of the year [2] - The Kowloon office market faces challenges due to global trade uncertainties, with subdued leasing activity noted in Kowloon East [2] - Rental prices in Tsim Sha Tsui have seen a slight increase of 0.7%, with demand primarily from the insurance, finance, and professional services sectors [2] Group 3: Retail Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown in expansion plans as local consumer spending decreases despite rising incomes [3] - The interest of mainland tourists in luxury goods has diminished, impacting retail strategies [3] - The consumption patterns of local citizens are evolving, with Generation Z becoming a key driver in luxury spending, emphasizing brand value, sustainability, and pricing transparency [3] - Although the tourism industry in Hong Kong is recovering, retail consumption across various sectors has not fully rebounded [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。 如何看待当前经济运行状况？如何展望下半年经济形势？如何推动物价合理回升？下半年是否有必要推 出增量政策？要如何加力促消费？如何更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳？如何有效推进"反内卷"的工 作？带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了上海财经大学校长刘元春。 下半年需重点关注投资 《21世纪》：上半年我国经济增长5.3%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。如何看待上半年经 济运行状况？ 刘元春：得益于超预期的出口和一揽子增量政策带来的消费反弹，中国经济上半年维持5.3%的增速， 显示出中国经济的韧劲和弹性。 在肯定上半年经济成绩的同时，也要看到一些结构性变化。当前，供给端增长要好于需求端，制造业韧 劲好于服务业，中央投资好于地方投资，大中型企业运行状况好于中小企业。更重要的是，6月份的一 些数据变化，包括投资增速回落、房地产市场出现波动等，暗示了下半年经济运行的新逻辑。 《21世纪》：如何展望下半年经济形势？出口、投 ...

Economic Policy and Strategy - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus will be on promoting consumption to effectively release domestic demand potential, with an allocation of 138 billion yuan for the "old for new" consumption subsidy program [3] - Policies will be developed to support service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial policies to stimulate personal consumption loans [3] Market and Competition - The importance of improving supply quality through deepening reforms and stimulating market vitality is highlighted, particularly in the context of transitioning to new growth drivers [3] - The establishment of a unified national market is essential to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [3] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4] - The combination of short-term goals and long-term tasks, driven by policy tools and deepening reforms, is necessary to ensure the completion of annual economic and social development goals [4]

展望未来，惠而浦维持全年销售额为158亿美元的预期;全年调整后每股收益预期为6-8美元(低于此前预 期的10美元)，不及市场普遍预期的8.96美元。该公司还计划将季度股息从每股1.75美元削减至每股90美 分。 惠而浦表示，正在采取措施抵消增加的关税成本，并计划实施约2亿美元的结构性成本削减措施。尽管 如此，该公司仍然预计美国贸易政策最终会带来提振，因为随着下半年更高的关税税率生效，其竞争对 手将提高其外国制造的洗衣机、冰箱和洗碗机的价格。 惠而浦还预计从更健康的房地产市场中受益。该公司表示，现房销售的复苏应该会在中期到长期推动家 电的更高可支配需求，而美国在多年供应不足后进行多年的住房扩建应提供进一步的长期增长空间。 由于第二季度业绩未能达到市场预期，截至发稿，惠而浦（600983）(WHR.US)周二美股盘后大跌超 13%。财报显示，惠而浦Q2销售额同比下降5.4%至37.7亿美元，不及市场普遍预期的38.5亿美元;调整后 的每股收益为1.34美元，同样不及市场普遍预期的1.68美元。 北美地区销售额同比下降4.7%至24.46亿美元，拉丁美洲销售额同比下降10%至8.06亿美元，亚洲地区销 售额同比下降 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Home Appliances and Retail Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the home appliances and retail industry in the United States, particularly the performance of tool categories, outdoor power equipment (OPE), and home appliances during the first half of 2025 [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Tool categories showed strong growth with hand tools increasing by 3.54% in May and 2.48% in June, while electric tools grew by 6.48% in May and 2.35% in June [3][4]. - OPE sales declined, with handheld devices dropping 14.46% in May and 5.68% in June, and riding equipment decreasing by 23.18% and 9.10% respectively [4]. - Home appliances experienced a surge in sales due to anticipated tariff increases, with refrigerators up 10.83% and washing machines up 17.12% in May, but saw a decline in June [4][16]. Tariff and Cost Implications - Procurement costs have risen by approximately 10%, leading retailers to increase overseas sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, resulting in a final store price increase of only about 3% [1][5][6]. - New tariffs on goods from Vietnam have increased from 10% to 20%, raising import costs significantly [7]. - A new round of price increases is anticipated due to rising supplier and procurement costs, with tariffs expected to rise to 15%-20% for Vietnam and Indonesia [8]. Inventory and Market Outlook - As of June 2025, inventory levels have increased significantly, with tool inventory up by about 18% and home appliance inventory up by 15% in preparation for the fourth quarter sales peak [18]. - The overall outlook for the fourth quarter remains optimistic, particularly for electric tools, which are closely tied to the real estate market [19]. Supplier Dynamics - The core supplier, Techtronic Industries (TTI), has maintained strong performance, contributing significantly to procurement shares [20]. - The Nuoki brand has increased its market share in electric tools from 41% to 45% between February and June 2025 [21][22]. - The Giant Star company has captured over 60% of the market share in tool cabinets, with plans to shift production to Thailand to address capacity constraints [23]. Challenges and Adjustments - The Daya company faced challenges in sales due to adverse weather conditions affecting lawn growth, leading to a strategic shift towards promoting the Muray brand [24][25]. - The overall market for lithium battery products has seen positive growth, while traditional brands like Honda have experienced significant declines [25]. Future Projections - The U.S. real estate market is expected to rebound following the resolution of tariff uncertainties and potential interest rate cuts, which could drive demand for tools and appliances [16][17]. - The anticipated recovery in the real estate market is expected to enhance sales, particularly for electric tools, which have a replacement cycle of 3-5 years [19]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of customs policies remains relatively stable, with suppliers often underreporting costs to navigate tariff implications [13][14]. - The interplay between Section 232 tariffs and counterpart tariffs continues to complicate the cost structure for imported goods [12]. - The overall sentiment in the retail market remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations of a strong sales season in the fourth quarter of 2025 [19].