Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints Methanol - High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. The market is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider going long when the price is low [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level year - on - year. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [8] PP - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or more PDH plants are shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants is ongoing, with the load between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are okay. In June, macro factors such as the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision should be monitored. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants are under maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. The current static inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11] Summary by Product Methanol - From June 30 to July 4, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2785 to 2455, a decrease of 330. The import profit decreased by 3, and the main contract basis decreased by 10. The MTO profit on the futures盘面 increased by 49 [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From June 30 to July 4, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price remained at 7200, the East China LL price increased by 10, and the East China LD price increased by 25. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract futures price decreased by 2. The basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 200 [8] PP - From June 30 to July 4, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6600 to 6550, a decrease of 50. The East China PP price decreased by 5, and the North China PP price increased by 20. The export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price increased by 4, and the basis decreased by 20. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [8] PVC - From June 30 to July 4, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2350, a decrease of 100. The import US dollar price (CFR China) decreased from 720 to 700. The export profit decreased from 602 to 465. The basis remained at - 80 [10][11]

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

| 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4800 | 4273 | 6592 | 499.4 | | | 涨跌 | 6796 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 2.7 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2 | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.76% | 0.54% | | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 160 | 126 | -21 | 110 | 6.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -18 | 6 | 32 | -0.6 | | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | | 金/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.5 | 496. 7 | -1.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,盘中PX行情偏强,成本支撑PTA。 或担忧下游聚酯减产,PTA现货基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1155. 4 | 1188. 4 | 33. 08 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3189 | 1. 3292 | 0. 0103 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 868 | 874 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 298 | 304 | 6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | ...

Group 1: Methanol - High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The futures market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a phase of bearish factors materializing. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - conditions and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine a clear direction for single - sided trading. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [1] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 10, the South China spot price was - 22, the Lunan converted price was + 18, and the Northwest converted price was + 33. Other prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Polyethylene (Plastic) - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around 0 in North China and + 120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. In June, the number of maintenance activities is decreasing month - on - month, and the domestic linear production is increasing. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The new production facilities in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on their commissioning [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on June 23rd. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 5, the East China LD price was - 50, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [11] Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is + 100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. In June, the supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Shandong propylene price increased by 390, the East China PP price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 13 [11] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream start - up is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In summer, the northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, focus on the commissioning of new facilities and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are decent. In June, pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level but is continuously decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the northwest calcium carbide price increased by 25, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 25, and other prices remained unchanged [12][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other regions have escalated, leading to expectations of continued oil price increases, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. [2] - The downstream load of polyester remains at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, and the actual production of polyester has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. [2] - PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period. The action of major factories to increase the basis for sales has had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. [2] - The ethylene price increase has strengthened the cost - side, and the export of Iranian petrochemicals is expected to be affected. However, the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. [2] - Ethylene glycol continues to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. The reduction in polyester production has a certain impact on the market, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, to 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, a decrease of 4.30 yuan/barrel. [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 839.2 yuan/ton to 860.5 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2023 to 1.2090. PTA主力期价 decreased from 4988 yuan/ton to 4978 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5190 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 324.7 yuan/ton to 390.3 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased slightly from 270 to 269. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 37468 to 36804. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 904 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 271 to 250. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4539 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly from (135.53) to (134.72). MEG内盘 price increased from 4585 to 4594, and the basis increased from 82 to 86. [2] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: PX开工率 remained at 82.70%, PTA开工率 remained at 78.56%, MEG开工率 increased slightly from 57.88% to 57.91%, and polyester负荷 increased from 89.98% to 90.16%. [2] - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D直纺涤短, and semi - light切片 all increased. The cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, and切片 all decreased, while the cash flow of涤短 increased. The long - filament sales rate increased from 31% to 33%, the short - fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 53%, and the切片 sales rate decreased from 42% to 39%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days. [2]