新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-14，沪铜主力合约开于 103780元/吨，收于 104120元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 104350元/吨，收于 103660元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.44%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为平水至升水280元/吨，均价升水140元，较昨日上涨 80元。现货价格区间为103500-104330元/吨。期铜主力合约早盘高开后探低回升，开盘自103150元小幅下行至102900 元后强势反弹，盘中两度触及104850元以上，最终收于104290元。隔月Contango价差在440-330元/吨，当月进口亏 损约1940-2070元/吨。早间平水铜报贴水10元至升水30元，好铜与湿法货源紧张，市场报价稀少。金冠早盘报升水 30元后上调至50元，豫光、中条山等平水成交，JCC、祥光报升水100元。午后金冠因成交活跃升至70元，紫金等 平水维持，金川isa以升水30元成交。今日为2601合约最后交易日，已有持货商对次月报贴水200元。预 ...

Report on Various Commodity Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Red Dates**: The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-increasing demand". Festival stockpiling shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under a favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulation on demand. The stable spot - end price supports the lower limit of the futures price, but there is significant hedging pressure above, leading to low - level range - bound trading [1]. - **Apples**: In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival stockpiling season. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - produced apples with high cost - effectiveness are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market fluctuates at a high level, with the near - term prices stronger than the long - term ones [3]. - **Oils**: For palm oil, concerns about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia will suppress the market. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a range - bound pattern. For soybean oil, the US - Iran relationship may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient despite reduced factory inventory, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to fluctuate around 8000 yuan. For rapeseed oil, it was boosted by potential Iranian oil export restrictions and then fell due to Indonesia's palm oil policy and cooling macro - sentiment, maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The spot market has high - level consolidation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, there is obvious reluctance to sell, and downstream enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling supports prices. In North China, there is a strong reluctance to sell high - quality grains, and prices fluctuate narrowly. Demand - side shows low inventory in northern ports and deep - processing enterprises, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. Policy - driven corn auctions continue but with limited scale. Overall, the corn market has support from tight supply and downstream demand but is restricted by policy - released corn, resulting in high - level range - bound trading [7]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig sales have decreased, while southern demand has dropped notably. Although there is still some second - fattening restocking locally, the overall enthusiasm is limited due to high pig prices. The market anticipates Spring Festival consumption, but with expected large - scale sales in mid - to - late January, the supply in January is relatively loose. The basis is strong, and the futures price has upward - correction momentum, but there is no obvious fundamental positive factor, so it is recommended to short after the price stabilizes [10]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures are in a weak range - bound trend. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvest, and the rainfall in December is beneficial for the next season's cane growth. India's sugar production is strong, while Thailand's sugar - making progress is slow. Domestically, the production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are a mix of positive and negative factors, in line with market expectations. With the approaching Spring Festival, trading is fair due to stockpiling demand, and enterprises mainly sell at current prices. New domestic sugar is on the market in large quantities, and sugar prices are expected to remain low - level range - bound [13][14]. - **Meals**: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production, decreased exports, and increased the US soybean inventory, causing the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support around 1050 cents. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and auctions suppress the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and there is uncertainty in the arrival schedule, there is still room for speculation on customs clearance. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the futures price maintains range - bound trading [15]. - **Eggs**: The recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' willingness to sell laying hens and slightly decreasing the number of culled chickens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. Spring Festival stockpiling drives demand, but the high - price area is cautious. After the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and the futures price is expected to remain low - level range - bound [17]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows a double - decline in US cotton production and ending stocks. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas is rising, and USDA export sales are continuously declining, with export expectations likely to be lowered. In Xinjiang, the cotton inspection progress is faster than usual, and commercial inventory is rising, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have strong price - holding intentions as they have a fast de - stocking speed and reduced sales pressure. But Xinjiang textile enterprises' profits and inland textile enterprises' cash flow have been compressed, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference may increase the competitiveness of imported cotton. Overall, short - term cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Red Dates 2605) rose from 9060 to 9130, an increase of 70 or 0.77%. Other contracts also had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were stable, with the special - grade price rising slightly by 0.11% [1]. - **Basis and Other Indicators**: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates to the main contract decreased by 64.71%, and the position decreased by 0.61%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 0.07%, while the effective forecast increased by 26.00%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 3.02% [1]. Apples - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Apple 2605) rose from 9779 to 9934, an increase of 155 or 1.59%. The Apple 2610 contract fell by 0.67% [3]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The basis decreased by 9.82%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 17.25%. The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, while the futures position increased by 3.80%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 10.99%, and the on - disk profit decreased by 6.35% [3]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price (Y2605) decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 9.68%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.68%, the futures price (P2605) increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 13.64%. The on - disk import cost decreased by 0.38%, the on - disk import profit increased by 19.74%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72% [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.40%, the futures price (OI605) increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 330 [5]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as the inter - period spreads of different oils and the spot and futures spreads between different oils [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The Corn 2603 price decreased by 0.53%, the basis increased by 10.61%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 375.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 45.45%, the import profit decreased by 1.95%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.37%, the position decreased by 1.56%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.61% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The Corn Starch 2603 price decreased by 0.70%, the basis increased by 11.18%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 38.46%, the 03 on - disk spread between starch and corn decreased by 2.17%, the position increased by 0.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis decreased by 17.84%, the Pig 2605 contract increased by 0.74%, the Pig 2603 contract increased by 1.82%, the 3 - 5 spread increased by 33.33%, the main - contract position increased by 4.63%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan were stable [10]. - **Spot Indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.13%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 6.45%, the weekly piglet price increased by 0.92%, the weekly sow price increased slightly by 0.03%, the weekly出栏 weight decreased by 0.09%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 66.64%, the weekly purchased - breeding profit increased by 95.22%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [10]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The Sugar 2605 contract increased by 0.88%, the Sugar 2609 contract increased by 0.72%, the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.13%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 61.54%, the main - contract position decreased by 0.23%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.53%, and the effective forecast decreased by 11.60% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, the price in Kunming remained unchanged, the Nanning basis decreased by 33.64%, the Kunming basis decreased by 200.00%, the price of Brazilian imported sugar (within quota) increased by 0.27%, and the price (outside quota) increased by 0.29% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, the national and Guangxi sugar sales rates decreased, the national industrial inventory increased, the Guangxi industrial inventory decreased, and the sugar import volume decreased by 16.98% [13]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.64%, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.36%, the basis decreased by 2.64%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Brazilian February shipments decreased by 13.1%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 19.7% [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.84%, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.08%, the basis increased by 6.58%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Canadian March shipments decreased by 21.51%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.14%, the basis increased by 1.82%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.54%, the basis increased by 4.15%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% [15]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as inter - period spreads and cross - commodity spreads [15]. Eggs - **Futures Prices**: The Egg 03 contract increased by 0.57%, and the Egg 04 contract remained unchanged [17]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.40%, the basis decreased by 0.72%, the 3 - 4 spread increased by 5.99%. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased by 3.57%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [17]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The Cotton 2605 contract increased by 0.34%, the Cotton 2609 contract increased by 0.10%, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 22.58%, the main - contract position increased by 0.62%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.07%, and the effective forecast decreased by 5.57% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.40%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1.18%, the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged, and the basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts increased [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 10.0%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textile products decreased by 44.4%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports decreased by 530.5%, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 15.7% [18].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the 2025/26 ending inventory estimate to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 178 million tons, higher than market expectations, kept Argentina's soybean production unchanged, and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.1 million tons, all of which were bearish. The US soybean quarterly inventory report showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than market expectations, also bearish [10]. - In the short term, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation. With Brazil starting the harvest, the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazil's CNF premiums should be monitored. The USDA report is bearish, and the harvest pressure under the South American bumper harvest is expected to be gradually reflected in Brazil's CNF premiums. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in China brings structural issues, which may change the downstream sentiment before the Spring Festival, supporting the pre - holiday spot price trend. However, the uncertainty of China's soybean selling policy may affect the March - May spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 14th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was 469, down 10. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 429, down 10; in Rizhao was 369, down 30; in Zhangjiagang was 369, down 10; in Dongguan was 349, down 10; in Zhanjiang was 419; in Fangchenggang was 409, down 10. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 92. M3 - 5 was 358, up 2; RM5 - 9 was - 67, down 3 [4]. 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents data on China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal in China from 2020 - 2026 [5][6][7]. 3.3.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2026, as well as downstream delivery volume data from 2019 - 2026 [8][9]. 3.4. Spread and International Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 652, and the futures spread of the main contract was 462. The price difference data also includes the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross profit. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9421, up 5, and the futures crushing profit was 179 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate for PVC from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. However, the overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream demand is lackluster, and inventory is high. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Affected by low - price warehouse receipts, the spot price is weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory in Shandong continuing to accumulate. The supply side has a high overall operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4878 yuan/ton (-10); the East China basis is - 238 yuan/ton (-10); the South China basis is - 258 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The blue charcoal price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 634 yuan/ton (+80); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 192 yuan/ton (+87); the PVC export profit is - 9.0 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9); the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1); the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.23% (+2.00%); the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.69% (+0.41%); the overall PVC operating rate is 78.85% (+1.51%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2093 yuan/ton (-38); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 7 yuan/ton (+32) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 672 yuan/ton (-2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1075 yuan/ton (-6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 587.8 yuan/ton (+33.8); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 279.20 yuan/ton (-36.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (-81.01) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 49.51 tons (+0.94); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.08 tons (+0.06); the operating rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%); the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%); the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream operating rates are mixed with a downward trend, and inventory is high. The cost - side profit has some repair but is still low year - on - year, and the hedging pressure on the futures market is high [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline, affected by low - price warehouse receipts. The supply - demand is weak, with inventory in Shandong accumulating. The supply side has a high operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side Strategy**: Oscillation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: Go long on the V03 contract and short on the V05 contract when the spread is low [4]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: Go short on the SH03 contract and long on the SH05 contract when the spread is high [5]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [5].

航运日报 | 2026-01-15 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730,WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半月船期报 价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635,2月上半月船期 报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2633-2730美元/FEU。 地缘端：美国特使威特科夫表示，我们正式宣布启动特朗普关于结束加沙冲突"二十点计划"的第二阶段。第二阶 段将在加沙建立一个过渡性的巴勒斯坦技术官僚政府，并开启加沙地带的全面去军事化与重建工作。美国期望哈 马斯完全履行其义务。美国期望哈马斯立即归还最后一名遇难人质，否则将面临严重后果。 静态供给：交付现 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-15 负荷偏高，EG主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3867元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.36%），EG华东市场现货价 3718元/吨（较前一交易日变动+36元/吨，幅度+0.98%），EG华东现货基差-144元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-76美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-901 元/吨（环比-50元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港到港量6.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.8万吨，副港到港量1.7万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷7成以上高位继续提升，1~2月高 供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 481,772 lots, an increase of 101,516 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 199,739 lots, an increase of 5,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 105,590 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,154 lots to 47,479 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract decreased by 35 to - 310, the basis of mixed - futures main contract decreased by 85 to - 1,010, and the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 10 to 20 [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market decreased by 10 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 dollars/ton [2] Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.14% to 9.35 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.13% to 47.47 million tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4] - The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR widened by 10 yuan/ton to 3,145 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract widened by 85 yuan/ton to - 1,010 yuan/ton [4] - There is a certain difference in the release of production capacity between enterprises. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have an increase in foreign trade orders, and their production has been further released. Some are still under production control due to sales pressure. Overall, foreign trade shipments support the overall shipments, but domestic sales pressure remains high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak performance intraday [1][5][7] Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some devices, decreasing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Crude oil futures maintain a strongly volatile pattern, strengthening the cost support. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, the rebound momentum of domestic synthetic rubber futures weakened on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7]

2026 年 01 月 15 日 工业硅：下游减产，需求走弱 多晶硅：底部震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,755 | 120 | -225 | 470 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 245,936 | -24,140 | -231,450 | 42,007 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 235,089 | -7,380 | -9,645 | 88,015 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,945 | -60 | -9,355 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 20,942 | -7,437 | 361 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 48,439 | -405 | -19,361 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: January 12, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Research variety: Palm oil [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was 8,724 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,574 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 512,074 lots, and the trading volume was 44.339 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The basis was -74.00 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was -0.86%, continuing the contango structure [4] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 2.34 million tons (data as of December 31, 2025), and the high inventory suppressed price increases. The national commercial inventory of palm oil was 765,000 tons (as of January 7, 2026), and the inventory in East China was 335,000 tons, and the inventory pressure remained. The spot price was lower than the futures price, and the basis remained negative, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - It is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Supported by a technical rebound in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high inventory and import replenishment pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Malaysia's production and the rhythm of domestic imports [7]