Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Neutral - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum forward spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and high electricity costs impact the market. The aluminum price is supported by macro factors, and its upward potential depends on the inventory drawdown [6]. - Alumina has a low - price spot market, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing. However, the supply - demand surplus persists, and cost and supply factors put pressure on prices, with current valuations being low [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 29, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Central China A00 aluminum price was 21,040 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 21,070 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,180 yuan/ton, closed at 21,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,330 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,760 lots, and the open interest was 283,278 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,044 tons, a change of - 199 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 462,750 tons, a change of - 2,900 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,818 yuan/ton, closed at 2,879 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.41%). The highest price was 2,885 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,814 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 339,807 lots, and the open interest was 377,474 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 29, 2025, the Baotai civilian scrap aluminum purchase price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals are stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic plant caused a 200,000 - ton production cut, and high electricity costs pressure overseas production. Consumption is stable, but inventory drawdown is not obvious, and the spot discount is hard to correct. Sino - US negotiations may have an emotional impact [6]. Alumina - Low - price alumina spot and high profits of electrolytic aluminum plants drive procurement. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and cost and supply factors are unfavorable. The price is currently undervalued [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. High supply leads to significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, but the price has dropped near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs have boosted market sentiment [2] - Inter - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. More than two sets of equipment in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state, but due to the issue of individual ships involving the US, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the content Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of propylene remains relatively loose. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of propylene plants in North China and the resumption of maintenance units. The demand is mainly rigid, with downstream replenishment being cautious. The cost support is weakening as crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost side and PDH plant start - stop status [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 6205 yuan/ton (+93), the spot price in East China is 6060 yuan/ton (-15), and in North China is 5985 yuan/ton (-25). The basis in East China is - 145 yuan/ton (-108), and in North China is - 147 yuan/ton (-45). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 176 US dollars/ton (-6), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit is - 251 yuan/ton (+136), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+4770) [2] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 41% (+2.74%), production profit is - 5 yuan/ton (+25); epoxy propane operating rate is 68% (+0%), production profit is - 389 yuan/ton (-32); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (-4%), production profit is - 73 yuan/ton (+15); octanol operating rate is 88% (-4%), production profit is - 381 yuan/ton (+18); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (-1%), production profit is 747 yuan/ton (+11); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 394 yuan/ton (+52); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+0) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: Propylene supply is expected to increase due to the restart of plants in North China, reduction of external propylene procurement in some areas, and the resumption and capacity increase of maintenance units. Some enterprises offer discounts to sell [3] - Demand side: Downstream replenishment is cautious due to the loosening of propylene prices. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The supply of PO is stable for now, and the demand is mainly rigid. The acrylic acid plant has seen a significant decline in operating rate due to centralized maintenance, but some plants are expected to restart. The operating rate of PP powder has increased, while that of butanol and octanol has decreased significantly [3] - Cost side: Crude oil prices are falling with OPEC+ production increase expectations, and the cost support is weakening [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: PL01 - 02 reverse spread on rallies; - Inter - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a neutral stance on government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on copper on dips without chasing highs; wait for price pullbacks to go long on aluminum; either hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on nickel on rallies; use a range trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; take a short position on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; PTA is expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; red dates are expected to trade in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs on rallies; corn is expected to trade with a downward bias; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to experience a high-level adjustment with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong [1][39][40][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international trade relations [1][5][7] - It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors and market uncertainties when making investment decisions, and provides specific price ranges and trading strategies for different products [11][20][21] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the medium to long term. The recent market has seen an increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy and non-ferrous metals performing strongly. Positive factors such as Sino-US talks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may support the upward movement of stock indices [5] - **Government Bonds**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Although the central bank will resume open market bond trading, the improving market risk appetite may limit the upward potential of government bonds [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent price increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices, and the short-term supply shortage is the core factor supporting the strong operation of coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The futures price has strengthened recently, and the low valuation and improving market sentiment may limit the downward space of steel prices. It is recommended to go long on the RB2601 contract on dips [7] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The recent fundamental situation has continued to deteriorate, and the lack of macro policy expectations may make it difficult for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will be more likely to fall than rise [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent strong rise in copper prices is driven by factors such as supply shortage concerns and optimistic trade prospects. However, the high price may suppress downstream demand, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near term [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the positive signals from Sino-US and overseas economic policies may support the price. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainties to the supply of nickel ore, and the medium to long-term supply surplus may continue. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to use a range trading strategy and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent decline in prices is due to factors such as the improvement of the US government shutdown situation and the divergence in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the expected interest rate cuts and safe-haven sentiment may support the prices in the medium term [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high supply and weak domestic demand, along with the uncertain export sustainability, may keep the PVC market in a weak position. However, the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances may limit the downward space [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The short-term supply pressure may be relieved by new maintenance, but the future increase in production and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm and export situation [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high inventory and limited demand may lead to a weak supply-demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [23][24] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The strong raw material prices and positive macro sentiment may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as inventory changes and downstream demand [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The increase in maintenance devices and the improvement in agricultural and industrial demand may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and export situations [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The decrease in production capacity utilization and the increase in demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The expected increase in supply and the slow recovery of demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand, Fed interest rate cuts, and Sino-US trade relations [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract. The supply surplus and weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and cost pressures [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The increase in global cotton production and consumption, along with the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, may support the price [35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The weak supply-demand situation and the high inventory may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices and supply and demand changes [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The stable market situation in the western regions and the increase in demand may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as production and quality changes [36] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The stable market price and the expected increase in supply may lead to a stable price trend. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as new-season listing and price changes [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively loose, and the intervention of secondary fattening may shift the supply pressure to the future. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium term and pay attention to the supply and demand changes and capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively large, and the seasonal decline in demand may limit the upward space of egg prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 12 contract on rallies and hold a wait-and-see stance on the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The increase in new grain supply and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract on rallies and pay attention to factors such as policy and weather changes [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to rebound from a low level. The increase in soybean imports and the improvement in demand may support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2601 contract and pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations and soybean procurement [46][47] - **Oils**: The market is expected to experience a high-level adjustment. The short-term pressure on the price is due to factors such as the increase in palm oil production and the weak demand. However, the potential supply shortage and the positive signals from Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations may support the price in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and the spread between soybean and palm oils [48][49][54]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a mixed situation. Supply has increased, and demand has also recovered to a certain extent, but demand recovery remains at a low level. Costs have increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [3][6]. - The polysilicon market has short - term supply increases and medium - term expected adjustments. Demand is in the process of continuous recovery, costs are stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of organic silicon is at a low level, with a production profit of - 454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 70.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and the inventory of major ports increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has decreased to varying degrees, with battery cell production in a loss state and component production in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. Demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to recover in the medium term, with overall demand showing continuous recovery. Cost support is stable, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 2.40% to 9170 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [14]. - The basis of most contracts has decreased [14]. - Inventory shows different trends, with social inventory decreasing by 0.53%, sample enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.18%, and major port inventory increasing by 2.50% [14]. - Production and开工率 vary by region, with Xinjiang's production and开工率 increasing, and Sichuan's production and开工率 decreasing [14]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [16]. - Prices of different types of silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, and silicon wafer and battery cell production is in a loss state [16]. - The polysilicon inventory has increased by 1.98% to 258,000 tons [16]. - The production and demand of polysilicon in different months show different trends, with production and export showing some fluctuations [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 in East China [18][19]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the price and trading volume trends of the polysilicon main contract, as well as the basis trend [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: It includes the inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises in different regions, the monthly production by specification, and the开工率 trends [28][29][30][31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It presents the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the cost - profit trends of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, etc. [37][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from September 2024 to September 2025, including production, consumption, export, and import [40][41]. - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Table**: No detailed content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned [66]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It includes the daily capacity utilization rate of DMC, the profit - cost trends of Shandong organic silicon DMC, and the weekly production trends [43][44]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46][47]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It presents the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC [50][51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It includes the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy in China, the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, and the cost - profit trend of imported ADC12 [53][54]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56][57]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: It presents the monthly production and sales volume of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels [58][59][60]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It includes the cost trend, price trend, total inventory, monthly production, monthly开工率, and monthly demand of the polysilicon industry [63][64].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity market showed mixed results with major contracts fluctuating, with lithium carbonate and industrial silicon rising over 2% [2] - The increase in prices is attributed to heightened policy expectations and a tight supply-demand balance, as indicated by the recent policy initiatives from multiple government departments [2] - The "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" aims to address "involution" competition and create a fair and innovative business environment, signaling a stabilization of production and control in the upstream energy sector [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, following a previous cut in September, aligning with market expectations [3] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach while others prefer to maintain current rates [3] - Economic concerns, including the impact of a government shutdown and inflation dissatisfaction, may influence the Fed's cautious approach to future rate adjustments [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is good, with consumption support and continuous inventory reduction, but the market may fall if consumption weakens and mines resume production [4] - The lithium business of some companies has shown different trends. For example, the third - quarter performance of Yahua Group has improved significantly, while Tianqi Lithium has achieved a turnaround in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3] Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 82,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 82,900 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 659,421 lots, and the position was 506,882 lots, up from 488,803 lots the previous day. The basis was - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,7525 lots, a change of 190 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 77,500 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 76,400 - 77,500 yuan/ton, both up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. The total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to rise and may break the historical record [1] - The demand side is strong. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger fields, and the energy storage market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials [1] Company Performance - Yahua Group's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%; net profit was 198 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 278.06%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 6.047 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.07%; net profit was 334 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 116.02%. The company's lithium business performance improved in Q3, and it has sufficient orders in Q4 [2] - Tianqi Lithium's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.565 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 29.66%; net profit was 95.4855 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year. The revenue in the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%; net profit was 180 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation. Observe the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [4] - There is no strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of asphalt remain weak and market drivers are limited. Crude oil price rebound is blocked, leading to an adjustment in the asphalt market and increasing the cautious sentiment in the spot market. The abundant supply of local refineries in Shandong continues to pressure the asphalt spot prices in Shandong and surrounding areas. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation state, waiting for important macro - events [1] Market Analysis - On October 29, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,274 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,026 lots, a decrease of 1,242 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 173,766 lots, an increase of 7,144 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,406 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,200 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,360 - 3,580 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] Figures - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10][5][7] - Figures related to asphalt futures (index closing price, main contract closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month spread, unilateral trading volume and open interest, main contract trading volume and open interest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton or lots [3][23][20][24] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly production, independent refinery production, production in Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][32][30][38] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road consumption, waterproof consumption, coking consumption, ship - fuel consumption) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39][40] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][41]