2026.01. 26 本文字数：2438，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力的最 终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被视为领跑 者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国策 略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境后， 他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 关税案悬而未决 去年11月5日，美国最高法院就美国总统特朗普是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施关税 一案听取了首轮口头辩论。彼时，摩根大通对政治策略师的调查显示，美国政府依据IEEPA征收的关税在 2025年底前被推翻的概率高达70%。然而，最高法院至今仍未作 ...

Core Viewpoint - Thomas Friedman critiques the Trump administration for moving the U.S. towards isolationism and undermining global cooperation, despite claims of inheriting a poor economy from the previous administration [1][3]. Economic Analysis - Friedman argues that the economic data during Biden's presidency shows stability, with low unemployment rates and steady growth, contradicting Trump's narrative of economic disaster [3]. - Trump's tariffs, such as the 25% on Canadian imports and 10% on energy products, have led to significant supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, resulting in substantial losses [3][4]. - The average tariff rate has surged from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to much higher levels, affecting trade relations with countries like India and the EU, and contributing to rising consumer prices and inflation [4]. Military and Foreign Policy - The Trump administration's military actions, including airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen, have resulted in high costs without resolving underlying issues, contradicting Trump's self-portrayal as a peace-oriented leader [4]. - Trump's aggressive stance on territorial issues, such as the Panama Canal and Greenland, has raised tensions and drawn criticism from both local governments and international observers [6][7]. Domestic Policy and Governance - The administration's approach to governance has been characterized by a lack of coherent policy, with significant internal conflicts, particularly highlighted by the tumultuous relationship with figures like Elon Musk [7]. - The rising national debt, projected to reach $41.1 trillion, is exacerbated by increased military spending and ineffective economic policies, leading to concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [4][6]. Conclusion - Friedman concludes that the U.S. is moving away from a cooperative global stance towards a more predatory approach, which is damaging its international reputation and could have long-term negative implications for its economy and global standing [7].

布达吉安说："我的基本假设是：关税不会在短期内消失。" 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力 的最终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗 期"。与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被 视为领跑者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国 策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境 后，他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 牛津经济研究院在本月的研究说明中写道，如果这些关税被裁定为非法，美国有效关税税率可能从目前 的接近12%回落至8.3%。即便如此，预计美国政府将迅速采取行动，通过其他更具持久性的法律途径实 施规模相近的新关税。 摩根大通同样分析认为，由于美国政府很可能立即动用其他法律授权推出替代性关税措施，因此，该裁 决对整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government threatens to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, causing panic in the American wine industry, with potential severe impacts on the market if such tariffs are enacted [2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The profit margins in the wine industry typically range from 5% to 10%, making it difficult for importers to absorb high tariffs, which could lead to the closure of many small and medium-sized importers [3]. - In 2023, U.S. wine consumption reached nearly 900 million gallons, making it the largest market globally, with a market size exceeding $107 billion, of which over one-third relies on imports [3]. - The American wine distribution system heavily depends on imported products, with approximately 75% of revenue for companies representing domestic wines coming from imported wines [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - U.S. state laws prevent local vineyards from directly supplying restaurants and wine shops, necessitating reliance on distributors who sell both imported and domestic wines [3]. - A disruption in this supply chain due to tariffs could lead to unsold domestic wines, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the industry [3].

Group 1 - UBS reports that despite strong overall economic data, growth sources are extremely narrow, with most of the real economy in a state of weakness or contraction, except for the AI and technology sectors [1][5] - The labor market expansion has significantly slowed, with actual employment shrinking when excluding the healthcare sector [1][6] - The current asset prices are based on the dual pillars of sustained AI investment and strong consumption from the wealthy, leading to a warning that any downturn in AI investment could trigger a recession with a 50% probability [3][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma between maintaining independence and rescuing the labor market, predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [4] - The market currently underestimates the likelihood of a rate cut in March, with only about 16% probability priced in, while UBS believes the chances are higher due to potential labor report weaknesses [4] - Political pressures are mounting on the Federal Reserve, which may lead to delays in necessary rate cuts to avoid perceptions of yielding to political influence [4] Group 3 - The growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on AI-related investments, with a 17% increase in AI-related equipment investment over the past four quarters, while other equipment investments have declined by 1% [5] - Non-residential structure investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has declined in four of the last five quarters [5] - The wealth distribution is increasingly polarized, with stock market wealth reaching a record 37% of total household wealth, benefiting high-income groups while others face inflation and stagnant real incomes [5] Group 4 - The labor market has deteriorated significantly, with an average monthly decrease of 41,000 jobs in the private sector when excluding healthcare and social assistance [6] - Broader labor utilization indicators are rising, indicating a more severe weakness in the labor market than headline data suggests [6] - Current employment growth is below the breakeven point needed to maintain stable unemployment rates, highlighting the extent of labor market weakness [6] Group 5 - Tariff policies are creating significant macroeconomic headwinds, with the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) rising to 13.2%, effectively imposing a 1.1% tax on GDP [10] - This has led to a rebound in inflation from 2.61% in April 2025 to 2.91% in August 2025, with expectations of inflation peaking in summer 2026 before gradually declining [10] - Tariffs are expected to significantly hinder real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, limiting the Federal Reserve's policy options [10] Group 6 - Fiscal policy is expected to provide short-term support amid weak private sector demand, with a projected surge in personal tax refunds of approximately $50 to $60 billion due to the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" [11] - This fiscal stimulus is anticipated to shift from negative to positive in 2026, providing a bottom support for economic expansion despite underlying weaknesses [11] - UBS believes that as long as fiscal support continues, the economy is unlikely to collapse immediately [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's announcement regarding tariffs on all Canadian products, indicating a strong stance against Canada acting as a transit point for Chinese goods to the U.S. [2][4] - Trump stated that if Canada fulfills its agreement with China regarding tariff reductions, the U.S. would impose a 100% tariff on imports from Canada, although he did not specify a timeline for this action [2][4] - The context of this announcement is linked to a recent summit between Canada and China, where they agreed to advance a "new strategic partnership," including a significant reduction in tariffs on electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1% for a limited quota [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant volatility last week, with the S&P 500 index facing its largest daily decline since October due to geopolitical tensions, but managed to recover most of the losses later in the week as threats were retracted [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.1% on Tuesday, marking its largest daily decline since October [1] - Stocks recovered most of the losses throughout the week following President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum, where he eased his earlier threats [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Global Risks - The World Economic Forum's latest report indicates that 53% of chief economists foresee multiple uncertainties affecting the global economy in the coming year, including asset revaluation and debt accumulation [8] - The United Nations predicts a global economic growth of 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025, citing low investment and limited fiscal space as contributing factors to a potential long-term low-growth scenario [8] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that trade tensions and escalating geopolitical conflicts may exert greater pressure on global economic activities, with the Trump administration's new tariffs further complicating the economic outlook for 2026 [8] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Responses - Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed strong opposition to the U.S. imposing tariffs to acquire Greenland, emphasizing support for Greenland and Denmark's rights to determine their future [3] - French President Macron criticized U.S. actions regarding tariffs as unacceptable, particularly when used as a means to infringe on territorial sovereignty, highlighting the weakened state of NATO [4] - The European Commission President von der Leyen labeled the U.S. punitive tariffs on European allies over Greenland as a mistake, asserting that Denmark's territorial integrity is non-negotiable [4] Group 3: China's Role in Global Economy - China is projected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth in 2025, with its GDP expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan, reflecting its status as a stable and reliable driver of global economic growth [10] - The World Economic Forum's President Brende noted that China's economy demonstrates strong resilience and remains the largest contributor to global economic growth, with significant investments in frontier technologies expected to enhance productivity [10] - The forum emphasizes the need for new collaborative mechanisms to address key challenges in a competitive world, with China's market and international trade participation benefiting both developing and developed economies [10][11]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during the upcoming meeting on January 27-28, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining current rates and only a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The market's anticipation of the Fed's decision is influenced by recent employment and inflation data, which show mixed signals regarding the economic outlook [4][9] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continues to decline, with Bitcoin experiencing a 7.3% drop this week, bringing its year-to-date gains close to zero [1] - Ethereum has fallen below $3,000, and other cryptocurrencies like BNB and Dogecoin have also seen declines of around 1% [1][2] - Nearly 100,000 traders faced liquidation in the last 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts reaching $121 million [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The latest PCE data indicates that the U.S. inflation rate remains elevated, with the November PCE index rising 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [4][5] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that are far from the Fed's long-term target of 2% [4][5] Group 4: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government debt has reached $38.65 trillion, with plans to increase military spending by over 50% compared to the previous fiscal year [8] - The government's fiscal policies, including cuts to food and green energy subsidies, are raising concerns about long-term sustainability and could lead to a shift in investment preferences away from U.S. assets [8] Group 5: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector is facing a downturn, with major companies like META and Microsoft experiencing significant stock price declines following earnings reports [7][9] - The performance of AI stocks has been mixed, with some leading companies seeing substantial losses, while others like Google have gained [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from tech giants will be crucial in determining market adjustments and investor sentiment [9]

同一天，卡尼在其官方社交媒体账号上展示了一段40多秒的视频，回顾了他近期访问中国、卡塔尔以及 出席世界经济论坛年会相关活动的情况，并表示他正在加强伙伴关系、实现贸易多元化并吸引投资，为 加拿大争取更大的经济和战略利益。 美国总统特朗普1月24 日威胁称，如果加拿大与有关国家"达成协议"，将对进入美国的加拿大商品征收 100%的关税。 在特朗普对加拿大发出新一轮关税威胁后，加拿大总理卡尼24日号召该国民众"购买国货"，以应对外部 威胁。 卡尼在其个人社交媒体上发布一段事先录制好的视频。卡尼在视频里说："鉴于我们的经济正在经受来 自国外的威胁，加拿大人做出了选择：专注于我们能够掌控的事情。" 尽管没有直接提及美国，但卡尼重申将推动实施"购买国货"政策。他指出："我们无法控制其他国家的 行为。但我们可以成为自己最好的客户。我们将购买加拿大产品，我们将用加拿大产品来建设国家。" 当地时间1月9日，美国最高法院表示，当天不会就特朗普政府关税案作出裁决。特朗普政府2025年上台 后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台一系列加征关税 措施。美国联邦最高法院此前宣布，将在本月9日就关税政 ...