华尔街的惊魂24小时：美联储在政治与经济风暴中的挣扎 凌晨的达拉斯联储大楼内，资深债券交易员马克·汤普森凝视着彭博终端上飞速跳动的数字，五条鲜红的新闻标题如同警报 般接踵而至：美联储的利率决战，已经打响。这场决战的导火索，正是24小时前达拉斯联储主席，被市场冠以"鹰派女 王"之称的洛根的讲话。她斩钉截铁地宣告：当前4.25?%的利率区间必须维持"足够长时间的限制性水平"，这一表述在华尔 街被解读为至少6到12个月的维持高利率政策。她将此形容为给经济套上"不会窒息，但必须保持节食"的紧身衣，字里行间 透露出对通胀死灰复燃的深深忧虑。 这场利率风暴的核心，是美国经济数据呈现出的矛盾与撕裂。北京时间7月15日晚，美国劳工统计局公布的6月CPI数据如同 惊雷般炸响市场：整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，均显著高于美联储2%的目标，通胀的顽固态势昭然若 揭。然而，剧情在第二天急转直下。6月PPI数据意外"熄火"：环比增长为零，同比降至2.3%，创下九个月新低。这种数据 间的巨大差异在交易大厅引发了激烈的争论：关税威胁导致商品价格蠢蠢欲动，而服务价格却因需求疲软持续下滑。芝加 哥商品交易所的"美联储 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in agricultural futures prices, particularly soybean meal, driven by increased downstream demand [2] - On July 18, soybean meal futures opened at 3031 CNY/ton, peaking at 3059 CNY/ton, closing at 3056 CNY/ton, marking a 1.49% increase [2] - Soybean meal futures have been on an upward trend since early 2025, influenced by rising costs and macroeconomic improvements [2][3] Group 2: Import Costs - Rising import costs for soybeans, with U.S. soybean import cost at 4616 CNY, Brazilian soybeans at 3910 CNY, and Argentine soybeans at 3707 CNY as of July 18 [3] - The increase in soybean meal prices is linked to higher import costs, particularly due to improved U.S. soybean exports and strong Brazilian soybean prices [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. soybean crushing volume adjusted upward by 1.4 million tons to 69.13 million tons due to increased demand for biodiesel [4] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 totaled 49.37 million tons, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable shift in import sources [6] - Current soybean meal inventory levels are high, with oil mills facing storage issues, leading to slower downstream purchasing despite rising prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to remain supported by strong Brazilian pricing and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations [8][9] - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could positively impact soybean exports, providing a boost to the market [5][8] - The upcoming weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions will be critical for determining future price trends [9][10]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed characteristics of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in weekly output and operating rate, while the demand side had a slight increase in shipment volume. The factory inventory decreased slightly, ending the two - week inventory accumulation trend, indicating an increase in traders' willingness to purchase. However, the social inventory increased, and the current asphalt social inventory remains at a high level, with demand awaiting further improvement. - The crude oil market currently lacks obvious drivers, and short - term fluctuations are dominated by news. The EU's sanctions on Russia and the reduction of the price cap on Russian oil are bullish in the short - term sentiment, but have limited impact in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate strongly. - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction. It is also suggested to focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [7][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering the demand growth forecast [6]. - Key data: As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 1.319 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory levels; bearish factors include a cease - fire agreement between Israel and other parties and high supply levels [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **Tariff negotiations**: The progress of US tariff negotiations is slow and uncertain. Trump said the US is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and may reach an agreement with Europe, but it's too early to say about Canada. The US - Japan tariff negotiation has no progress, and the US may maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. The EU - US tariff negotiation has major differences, with core issues such as automobile and agricultural tariffs remaining unresolved [11]. - **Firing Powell incident**: Trump hopes that Fed Chairman Powell will resign, which may trigger investors' doubts about the Fed's independence and lead to the selling of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [12]. - **Fed's "Beige Book"**: The overall sentiment is pessimistic. All 12 regions in the US reported price increases, and enterprises generally felt the cost pressure related to tariffs. The economic outlook is "neutral to slightly pessimistic", and it is speculated that the Fed will continue to "stand still" [12]. - **OPEC and IEA monthly reports**: OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintained the economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day and lowered the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous statistical period, with significant increases in South China and Shandong. The increase in refinery operating rate was due to a decrease in maintenance plans [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 414,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume rebounded and was at a high level this year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.55%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [25][28]. - **Import and export**: In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03%. In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [37][44]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons, with a large decrease in Shandong. The social inventory was 1.319 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Except for the northwest region, there was a slight inventory increase in other regions [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 524.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.3 yuan/ton. As of July 16, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.41, and as of July 17, the asphalt basis was 107 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread rebounded this week, mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil prices [67]. 4.后市研判 - The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction, and focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper ore imports**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - **Mining end**: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - **Electrolytic copper production**: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - **Waste copper imports**: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - **Refined - waste price difference**: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - **Copper product production**: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - **Real estate market**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - **Copper inventory**: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - **Copper spot premium**: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low inventory of aluminum keeps the price from significant decline, with support at the 20,000 integer level [5][57]. - The economic reality in the US remains strong, but whether the upside space can be opened requires preventive interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to inflation clues and tariff impacts [11]. - In China, the economy showed marginal weakness in June, and it is recommended to focus on the long - term policy framework transformation [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market. US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase [11]. - US CPI in June was in line with market expectations, while core CPI was lower than expected, starting to reflect the tariff's impact on the retail end [11]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry changed little, with a slight increase in output. The demand side was affected by the seasonal consumption off - season and high aluminum prices, and the operating rate of downstream industries declined [5]. - The visible inventory of aluminum remained at a low level. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [5][50]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated little, and the visible inventory remained at a low level. The spot changed from a discount to a premium [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector continued to decline, and macro - sentiment uncertainty still existed [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Ore - From January to May 2025, the domestic ore output was 25.2 million tons, with a theoretical expected increase of 3.3 million tons to 61.3 million tons for the year, only meeting about 28% of domestic alumina raw material demand [17]. 3.3.2 Ore Price - Since the beginning of this year, the import price of bauxite has been continuously lowered. In June 2025, China's aluminum ore imports were 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [21]. 3.3.3 Alumina - The alumina price has been adjusted upwards recently. With the increase in supply, the short - term spot price is stable. The output of alumina continues to rise, and the supply surplus is expected to be strong [24]. 3.3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, and the subsequent increase is limited [28]. 3.3.5 Aluminum Demand - In June 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. From January to June, the output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Domestic aluminum product exports declined year - on - year, but demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors increased significantly [31]. 3.3.6 Downstream Operating Rate - Affected by high aluminum prices and the deepening off - season, the average operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.6% this week [35]. 3.3.7 Real Estate - From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [39]. 3.3.8 Automobile - In June, China's automobile exports reached 592,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. New - energy vehicle exports were 205,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 140% [43]. 3.3.9 Inventory - Last week, LME aluminum inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory also increased. As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, 12,000 tons less than on Monday [47][50]. 3.3.10 Price Premium - On July 17, the average price of aluminum in Shanghai Wumaomao changed from a discount to a premium of 110 yuan/ton, while the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened [54]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of Shanghai aluminum is difficult to decline significantly under the current low - inventory situation, with support at the 20,000 integer level [57].

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The second round of tariffs is expected to be implemented in July-August, but it is unlikely to reverse the current improvement in market risk appetite[6] - The market perceives the new tariffs as pressure tactics before agreement deadlines, with delayed economic transmission effects[11] - Despite tariff increases, the market remains resilient, driven by micro-level trading and positive earnings guidance from the upcoming earnings season[13] Group 2: Economic Data and Future Outlook - Economic data will be crucial in determining market direction, with a key observation window in Q3 mid to Q4[18] - The economic impact of tariffs may not fully materialize until Q4, with initial effects from the first round of tariffs expected to show in Q3 data[18] - A significant slowdown in economic growth is anticipated due to tariffs, but inflation risks are expected to remain contained[21] Group 3: Market Performance and Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.31% and 0.08% respectively during the week of July 5-12, 2025[22] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell from 98.8 to 98.6, indicating concerns over high inventory levels affecting business confidence[27] - The technology sector continues to lead market performance, reflecting a recovery in earnings expectations post-tariff easing[13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The US economy shows resilience as the retail sales in June 2025 had a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, and the weekly initial jobless claims were lower than the previous value and expectations. This suppresses the performance of gold prices, but gold still shows resistance. Due to strong uncertainties before the US tariff policy deadline and repeated risk sentiment, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Information - The vice - chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated that Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs [1] - The EU plans to add service tariffs and export controls on the US as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations [1] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that the EU's value - added tax is also a form of subsidy, and the US hopes to see VAT reduction and tariff cuts [1] - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister said he is confident of reaching an agreement before the US tariff takes effect [1] Fed Information - Kugler believes it is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable "for some time" [2] - Daly thinks whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical [2] - Bostic said it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term [2] - Waller believes the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting [2]

过去一周，美国股市的表现再次刷新了市场的预期。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数双双创下历史新高， 纳指更是在八个交易日中六次收盘破纪录。这一切都发生在特朗普政府宣布新一轮广泛关税、并被市场 认为或将冲击全球贸易秩序之后。那么，问题来了：在如此大的政策不确定性背景下，美股为何不跌反 涨，甚至频创新高？ 一个关键解释是，美国消费者的韧性仍在，且短期内没有受到关税成本的直接冲击。本周公布的一系列 数据与企业财报印证了这一点——百事可乐等消费巨头依然交出了亮眼的预期，消费动能未减。特别是 在饮料、航空等本被认为更容易受宏观环境压制的行业中，企业竟普遍展现出信心，这让市场对经济的 内生动能产生了新判断。 另一个支撑点是科技与工业的双重强势。这两个板块对利率敏感，同时也受益于结构性增长预期。即便 美联储尚未明确降息时间表，但通胀数据接近目标，劳动力市场走软的迹象已经让部分投资者押注美联 储可能提前转向。在此背景下，芯片制造商等高成长性企业的估值获得修复空间。资金重新涌入半导体 与软件等板块，助推了指数上涨。 Vatee外汇认为这些只是表层现象。更深层的问题在于，市场是否低估了关税政策的中长期影响？目前 看来，投资者普遍将关税 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.18」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上行，主力合约EC2508收涨16.44%，远月合约收涨7-16%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2421.94，较上周回升163.9点，环比上行7.3%，持续回升的现货指标说明头部船司此前的宣涨行为 大概率能成功落地，市场对旺季运价担忧减弱，叠加主力合约换月，基差修复逻辑带动期价上涨。6月美国标普全球 综合PMI指数从5月的53小幅回落至52.8。价格压力明显加剧，主要驱动因素包括关税政策的影响，以及融资成本、薪 资压力和燃料价格的上涨。美国6月零售销售数据呈现超预期反弹，环比增速录得0.6%，显著高于市场预期的0.1%， 且较前值-0.9%明显改善。尽管面临贸易政策不确定性，美国消费端仍展现出较强的韧性，部分或于特朗普暂缓关税 条例有关，但考虑到近期关税政策有所加码，后续通胀仍存在上行风险，或对未来数月的零售数据构成一定影响。此 外，欧元区面临美欧关税博弈升级的复 ...