Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: In the medium term, it is a volatile market. Short - term pressure comes from forward premium, inventory, and off - season factors. Long - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. It will fluctuate between rising due to production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. [2] -纯碱: In the medium term, it is also a volatile market. The core pressure drivers are supply surplus, forward premium, and potential downstream production cuts. It is supported by cost when falling and restricted by supply surplus and glass industry production cuts when rising. [3] Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of January 22, 2026, there were 296 glass production lines (199,500 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 212 in operation and 84 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 150,700 tons, unchanged from January 15. The industry's start - up rate was 71.62% and the capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, both unchanged from January 15. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of newly ignited lines was 15,010 tons/day. There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 9,370 tons. There are also potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting volume of 9,420 tons/day. [6][7][8] - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter. [11][12] Price and Profit - Most prices are stable with little change, and the transaction is average, slightly better on some days. The price in Shahe is about 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei about 1020 - 1060 yuan/ton, and in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang about 1110 - 1250 yuan/ton. [16][20] - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 2 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 158 and - 65 yuan/ton respectively. [23][27] Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recent transactions have fluctuated, with inventory rising in some periods, but large - scale inventory fluctuations are unlikely. Shahe's inventory has decreased significantly due to previous price cuts. Hubei's inventory is still slightly high, and attention should be paid to post - Spring Festival inventory pressure. Before the Spring Festival, inventory fluctuations are expected to be small, and most areas' inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. [30][31] - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronized with little change in price differences. [32] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from last week. [36][38] Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions have weakened, and inventory in some areas has increased. As of Thursday, the sample inventory days were about 36.69 days, a 5.77% decrease from the previous week, with the decline rate expanding by 2.70 percentage points. [40][46] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the start - up rate has returned to a high level. The capacity utilization rate is 86.4%, down from 86.8% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 413,000 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers should increase production cuts or the real - estate industry chain should recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and stocking. [50][51][52] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 53,800 tons (3.42%) from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 9,170 tons (6.41%). [55] Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1130 - 1250 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe is 1130 yuan/ton, and the market price has rebounded slightly. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable. [60][64][65] - There are several planned and under - construction soda ash projects in China, including Jinshan Chemical, Xiangheng Salt Chemical, Zhongyan Salt Industry Phase I, and Ningxia Risheng, with different expected production times. [68]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that price signals are crucial for economic health and consumer confidence, with multiple government departments advocating for reasonable price recovery this year [1][5][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement a series of policies across total, structural, and reform measures to promote moderate price recovery [1][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has identified promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations in monetary policy, continuing to support a moderately loose monetary environment [1][8] Group 2 - Analysis indicates that prices reflect the balance of supply and demand, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to hover around 0% in 2025, indicating a need for stronger policy measures to stabilize prices [2][10] - The CPI showed signs of improvement starting in Q4 2025, with a notable increase in October, reaching a year-high of 0.8% in December [3][4] - Structural factors affecting the CPI include a 1.5% decline in food prices and a 3.3% drop in energy prices, which significantly impacted the overall CPI [4][6] Group 3 - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to price control, advocating for both demand expansion and the regulation of excessive competition [6][7] - The upcoming revision of the Price Law aims to enhance market regulation and address unfair pricing practices, which is expected to improve the competitive environment [7][8] - The PBOC's commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting economic stability is crucial for fostering a conducive environment for price recovery [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Wei Xing New Materials [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a significant increase of 7.50% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.17% [12]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old urban communities, complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in local government bond issuance, indicating a potential easing of fiscal pressure and a chance for corporate balance sheet recovery, which may accelerate municipal engineering projects [1]. - The glass industry is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to alleviate supply conflicts [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand driven by large infrastructure projects [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the national cement price index was 345.33 CNY/ton, down 0.5% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.3795 million tons, a decrease of 10.04% [18]. - The cement clinker kiln line capacity utilization rate was 42.42%, up 1.72 percentage points from the previous week [18]. - The market is facing a complex situation influenced by weather, funding constraints, and environmental regulations, leading to a projected weakening of demand as the Spring Festival approaches [18]. Glass Industry Tracking - The national average price of float glass as of January 22, 2026, was 1138.82 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [35]. - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces was 49.77 million weight boxes, showing a decrease of 90,000 weight boxes from the previous week [35]. - The market is expected to maintain a stable price trend in the short term, with potential supply-side changes to monitor [35]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remained stable, with demand continuing to show weakness and inventory levels remaining high [6]. - The average production cost for carbon fiber was 112,500 CNY/ton, with a negative profit margin indicating insufficient profit space in the industry [6]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is showing signs of weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices for aluminum alloy, styrene, and natural gas increasing week-on-week [6]. - The report recommends continued attention to companies benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation policies, highlighting their potential for market share growth [1].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable recovery in demand, with oil prices expected to remain in a range of $55-70 per barrel due to OPEC+ production delays and improved global economic conditions [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in spandex prices, an ongoing improvement in titanium dioxide supply and demand, and an anticipated acceleration in dye supply clearance [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export chains, with specific company recommendations provided [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Oil: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - Spandex: The overall operating rate in the spandex industry has increased from 79% to 87%, with prices rising by 1,000 CNY per ton as of January 20, 2026 [4][5]. - Titanium Dioxide: The closure of production facilities by major companies is expected to improve profitability, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in this sector [4][5]. - Dyes: The price of core intermediates for disperse dyes has increased by over 50%, indicating a potential industry clearance [4][5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4][20]. - Key materials for semiconductor and panel manufacturing are emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [4][5]. - The report also notes the importance of focusing on companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in critical materials [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The cost and demand are in a game, and steel prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The central economic work conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations, and the overall macro environment is warm [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Iron water production is expected to stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. Attention should be paid to hot-rolled coil inventory. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the steel prices to fluctuate widely. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing up may need to wait for the price to break through [5][9][11] Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still low. The traditional off-season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. The long and short process supply and inventory information is also provided [24][26] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [29] Hot-rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [34] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is in the traditional off-season, and demand is falling. However, exports remain at a high level through price-for-volume strategy [39][40] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production is cut to reduce inventory. The production is maintained at a low level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [48] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and medium-thick plate [58][59][61][62][64] Cold-rolled Coil and Medium-thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate [65][66]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies such as SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Caocao Travel [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies increasing their investments, particularly Alibaba's commitment to enhancing its Taobao flash purchase services to achieve market leadership. It suggests capitalizing on investment opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from two main investment themes: international expansion due to the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and a focus on improving operational efficiency amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a significant recovery in passenger volumes, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasting a record high of 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Overview - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76% in the week of January 19-23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing and logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The report emphasizes the long-term positive outlook for the aviation sector, driven by low supply growth and recovering demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap. It also notes the potential for ticket prices to recover and airline profitability to improve [12][11]. - Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with the Middle East route rates reaching $107,937 per day as of January 23, 2026 [13]. - The dry bulk freight rates have rebounded, with the BDI index closing at 1,762 points on January 23, 2026 [14]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for potential investment opportunities [15][16]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing growth driven by international e-commerce, with Jitu Express recommended as a key player [18]. - The report notes that the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - Major players such as YTO Express and Shentong Express are highlighted for their market share gains, while SF Express is noted for its strategic business adjustments [20].

Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Wind All A Index increased by 27.6% compared to the last trading day of 2024[3] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (94.7%), electronics (47.9%), and communications (84.8%)[3] - The profit growth rate for major industrial enterprises in 2025 was 0.1% year-on-year from January to November[4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The leading industries in profit growth from January to November 2025 were non-ferrous mining (32.3%) and transportation equipment (27.8%)[5] - Significant profit declines were observed in coal (-47.3%) and oil and gas extraction (-13.6%) sectors[5] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, with traditional raw material industries contributing 89% to this decline[8] Group 3: Demand and Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, while equipment investment rose by 11.8%[8] - The demand side was primarily driven by high-end product exports and domestic policy incentives[6] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" rose to 5.6 in 2025, indicating a supply surplus[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 policy focus is on addressing demand shortfalls, with expectations for fixed asset investment recovery to around 3.8%[13] - The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than 2025's 3.2%[16] - The emphasis on enhancing service consumption and traditional industries is expected to drive economic recovery in 2026[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies mentioned, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in relation to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics and a "de-involution" policy that encourages companies to avoid price wars and focus on profitability [10][22]. - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the PMI reaching 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a return to expansion [16][22]. - The inventory cycle is shifting from active destocking to passive destocking, which may lead to rapid inventory depletion in the chemical sector once demand improves [22]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The investment growth rate in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has been declining since 2022, with a projected drop to negative growth by June 2025 [15]. - The supply side is improving due to reduced new capacity and the shutdown of older facilities in Europe and Japan, particularly affecting basic chemicals like ethylene and propylene [15][22]. Policy Impact - The "de-involution" policy initiated by the central government aims to prevent vicious competition, leading to a consensus among leading companies to maintain prices by reducing production rates [22][10]. Company-Specific Insights - **China Chemical**: The company has a production capacity of 200,000 tons for both adiponitrile and caprolactam. Price rebounds in these products are expected to significantly enhance its earnings [23]. - **Sanhua Chemical**: The company is positioned to benefit from price recovery in its core products, with a strong focus on expanding its high-end cellulose product lines [30]. - **Donghua Technology**: The company has multiple high-end chemical projects that are expected to improve profitability as supply constraints stabilize prices [37]. - **Southeast Network Frame**: The company produces 500,000 tons of polyester filament, with potential for revenue growth as raw material prices recover [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Chemical, Sanhua Chemical, Donghua Technology, and Southeast Network Frame, all of which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases in chemical products [10][45].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the transportation sector, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 2.3% year-on-year growth in business volume in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and improved demand, with recommendations for airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows mixed signals, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport rates are increasing significantly [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 1.6% during the week of January 17-23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.6% [1][13]. Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume reached 182.1 million pieces, a 2.3% increase year-on-year. The total revenue for the express delivery sector in 2025 is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, with a 6.5% growth [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index remained stable, and the logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Haichen Co. recommended for its growth potential [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights decreased by 9.19% year-on-year, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints. Recommendations include Air China and China Southern Airlines [4][59]. Shipping - The container shipping index showed a slight decline, with the CCFI at 1208.75 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 22.4% year-on-year. However, oil transport rates are increasing, with the BDTI index rising by 12.5% week-on-week [5][41]. Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic saw a slight increase of 1.87% week-on-week, while the railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year [81].