Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its antitrust regulations, signaling a shift towards a "strong regulatory" period in response to market monopolies and unfair competition [2][5]. Group 1: Antitrust Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has conducted three significant interventions in January, targeting the food delivery industry, polysilicon alliances, and travel platforms like Trip.com, all aimed at reinforcing antitrust measures [2]. - Recent discussions with the China Silicon Corporation and leading polysilicon companies emphasized that agreements on production capacity, utilization rates, sales volumes, and pricing are prohibited, highlighting that "anti-involution" cannot be used as an excuse for monopolistic practices [3]. Group 2: Market Competition Dynamics - The belief that larger scale equates to immunity from antitrust scrutiny is prevalent, especially in the internet sector, where companies operate under the "winner takes all" mentality [3][4]. - Local governments sometimes interfere in market competition to protect local economies, leading to de facto market segmentation or regional monopolies, which complicates regulatory enforcement [4]. Group 3: Importance of Antitrust Regulations - Antitrust laws are fundamental to maintaining market order and ensuring competition, which is essential for market vitality and innovation [4]. - The recent surge in antitrust investigations across various sectors indicates that there is no room for complacency regarding compliance with antitrust regulations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some individual industries are as follows: - Industrial silicon is rated "bearish" [1] -沪胶 is rated "bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue rising after a period of shock adjustment. The bond market is favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank. The prices of various commodities show different trends due to factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: After the policy of lowering the margin trading leverage, the market speculative sentiment declined. The central bank's measures of lowering interest rates and increasing loan quotas are expected to further loosen the capital side. The stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk prompt and the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision need attention [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The downstream demand is relatively pressured. With the cooling of market sentiment, copper prices have fallen from high levels and are currently in a volatile trend [1] - **Aluminum**: Due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro - sentiment, aluminum prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina production capacity has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Zinc**: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, but there is inventory pressure. Although zinc prices have made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment recently, the upside space is cautiously viewed [1] - **Nickel**: The 2026 RKAB target of Indonesian nickel mines is about 260 million wet tons, but the supply shortage pattern is difficult to change. Nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1] - **Stainless steel**: The price has risen sharply due to the supply shortage of nickel ore. The price of raw material nickel - iron has been rising, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The stainless steel futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1] - **Tin**: Due to good macro - sentiment and continuous supply disturbances, tin prices have continued to rise. The exchange's margin - increasing action on the 15th has had a short - term impact on tin prices [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: With the easing of geopolitical tensions and Trump's decision to postpone the tariff on key minerals, the upward momentum of precious metal prices has slowed down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. In the long term, due to the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, platinum can be allocated at a low price or a [long - platinum, short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is in the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and increased supply from restarts. It is expected to be strongly volatile, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient [1] Black metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: High output and high inventory suppress the price increase space. The transmission from futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed and observed, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be participated in [1] - **Iron ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre - holiday stockpiling in the spot market, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the "capacity - reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, the actual upward space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a sharp rise [1] - **Glass and soda ash**: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and supply and demand are supportive. However, in the medium term, supply and demand will continue to be in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. Soda ash mainly follows the trend of glass, and its supply - demand situation is more relaxed in the medium term, so the price is under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The rumor that Indonesia will not implement B50 has put pressure on the market. It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase in the short term, waiting for positive driving factors such as Indian stockpiling and inventory reduction in the producing areas [1] - **Soybean oil**: It has a strong fundamental situation, and it is recommended to allocate more in the oil market. Consider a long - soybean - oil, short - palm - oil spread strategy [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade and the Australian commercial crushing are expected to improve the tight domestic supply situation. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest in the new season, the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively weak in the oil market [1] - **Cotton**: There is support from the new - crop purchase price, and the downstream has rigid replenishment demand. However, there is currently no clear driving factor. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No.1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting intentions, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand in March and April [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market has a surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus on short positions. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental drivers in the short term [1] - **Corn**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and there is a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand from the middle and lower reaches. The spot price is still firm in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] - **Soybeans**: The USDA report is bearish. The expected harvest pressure in South America is gradually reflected in the Brazilian CNF premium. The domestic futures market is expected to be weakly volatile. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans may lead to structural problems, which may support the pre - holiday spot price, but the domestic auction policy is uncertain [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1] - **Fuel oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The probability of the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is not short [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - **BR rubber**: The futures position has declined, the new warehouse receipts have increased, and the short - term upward momentum has slowed down. The spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and attention should be paid to the upward momentum above 12,000. The processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed, and the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial for the long - term domestic butadiene export [1] - **PTA**: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, which is not due to fundamental changes. The PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to be tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high gasoline spread supports aromatics [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year, plan to shut down next month. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The current polyester downstream operating rate is maintained above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak - equilibrium state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1] - **Hydrogen**: The upward space is limited due to weak domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] - **PE**: The supply pressure is relatively large due to high operating load and less maintenance. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a rise in crude oil prices [1] - **PVC**: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a rush - export phenomenon. The implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest region may force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] - **LPG**: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong support for the import cost. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend has slowed down and is expected to turn into inventory reduction, and the domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit [1] Others - **Container shipping**: It is expected to reach the peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. The pre - holiday replenishment demand still exists [1] - **Paper pulp**: Affected by the decline of the commodity macro - market, paper pulp has fallen but has not broken through the shock range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [1] - **Log**: The spot price of logs has shown signs of bottom - rebounding recently, and the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas offer has still declined slightly, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]

Group 1 - The monetary policy in 2025 is expected to be moderately loose, with lower rates of cuts compared to 2023-2024, primarily focused in the second quarter due to external shocks and a combination of resilient exports, proactive fiscal policy, and industrial highlights enhancing growth resilience [1][11][12] - Structural tools have formed a framework to support key areas such as consumption and real estate, with a focus on optimization in 2026, including streamlining the number of tools and expanding counterparties to include non-bank institutions [15][16] - The policy framework is shifting towards interest rate regulation, with a focus on narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, which currently has a width exceeding 200 basis points [2][18][19] Group 2 - Narrowing the interest rate corridor is expected to stabilize liquidity expectations and reduce short-term interest rate volatility, which is crucial for improving the interest rate transmission mechanism [20][21] - The narrow liquidity in 2025 is projected to gradually loosen after the first quarter, with potential tightening risks due to credit exceeding acceptable levels and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations [23][24] - The systemic convergence of narrow liquidity fluctuations since 2016 is attributed to increased exchange rate marketization and changes in intermediary targets, leading to a more stable monetary supply [26][27] Group 3 - In 2025, the growth of M1 is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points, driven mainly by fiscal expansion and overseas net income, although the micro-level activation of funds remains limited [32][33] - The growth of M2 is projected to rise by 0.7 percentage points in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and a decrease in bond issuance, but may slow down in 2026 due to uncertainties in the banking sector [42][43] - The total amount of remaining liquidity is expected to increase by approximately 0.7 trillion yuan in 2025, primarily flowing into private equity funds and fixed-income assets, but significant expansion in 2026 is unlikely [45][48][49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a decline of 0.52% as of January 16, with notable gains from stocks like Bluestar Technology, Tongcheng New Materials, and Jinfat Technology [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has experienced net inflows for 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 176 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching 449 million and a total scale of 431 million yuan, both marking new highs since its inception [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the "anti-involution" trend is optimizing supply order, and certain sub-industries are expected to recover, particularly in organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, soda ash, PVC, glyphosate, and urea [1] Group 2 - Several sub-industries within the chemical sector, such as organic silicon, PTA, and caprolactam, are gradually initiating industry self-discipline to seek profit recovery, with expectations for improved performance following price control and production reduction measures [1] - Other sub-industries experiencing price and margin fluctuations at the bottom are also anticipated to see profit improvements driven by potential industry self-discipline and supply-demand recovery [1] - The Petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 59.23% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.60%, indicating a potential upward trend in industry prosperity due to the "anti-involution" catalyst [1]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase for China's manufacturing sector, driven by a shift from demand-driven growth to supply-side optimization, necessitating a reevaluation of company valuations and investment strategies [2][18]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals - Investment in non-ferrous metals is traditionally tied to macroeconomic variables like the Federal Reserve's interest rates, but different metals are now operating on their own "industrial clocks," presenting differentiated alpha opportunities [3][13]. - Aluminum is viewed as an energy-intensive asset with a supply constraint due to global energy structure changes and domestic production limits, while demand from green sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics supports long-term growth [3][13]. - Copper's long-term demand story is well-known, but current supply vulnerabilities due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure may tighten the supply-demand balance, making investments in leading companies with quality resources and cost advantages attractive [3][13]. Group 2: Chemical Industry - The chemical industry reflects a clear picture of China's supply-side reform, with policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity to shift the focus from quantity to quality [5][15]. - The core investment dilemma has shifted from "where is the demand" to "who will clear the supply," with two main investment lines emerging for 2026: focusing on companies with cost advantages and investing in sectors where high-cost capacities are exiting the market [6][16]. - The "survivor takes all" approach is catalyzed by the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant increases in industry concentration across various segments, such as spandex and polyester [7][16]. Group 3: Methodology - Capturing investment opportunities requires a matching investment framework, focusing on the essence of "upward revisions of corporate profit expectations" through three paths: investing in clear industry structures, reverse positioning at price bottoms, and identifying advanced capacities that will lead to profit leaps [8][17]. - The methodology emphasizes transforming deep industry knowledge into pricing power that exceeds market consensus, requiring fund managers to act as both researchers and industry observers [8][17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The year 2026 may signify a new era for China's cyclical manufacturing, with a shift in driving forces from demand to supply optimization, necessitating a reconstruction of valuation systems for related listed companies [18]. - Investors are encouraged to explore companies transitioning from "cyclical stocks" to "cyclical growth stocks" and "pattern dividend stocks," focusing on proactive value discovery rather than reactive responses to cyclical fluctuations [18].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a slight decline of 0.22% as of the latest update [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Guangdong Hongda, Hanjin Technology, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Chuanfa Longmang, have seen significant declines, with Guangdong Hongda dropping over 3% [1][2] - Recent regulatory developments in the basic chemical industry include the approval of the "Safety Law of Hazardous Chemicals," effective from May 1, 2026, marking a new phase in national safety management [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities indicates a recovery in the chemical industry, with expectations of a supply-side slowdown and a new inventory replenishment cycle [3] - Huafu Securities notes that the chemical industry is at a new equilibrium point, with policies reshaping the competitive landscape and new production technologies driving growth [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is highlighted as an efficient way to invest in the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks and the remainder in key segments like phosphate and fluorine chemicals [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Petrochemical Company Overview - **Company**: Hengli Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Strategy - Hengli Petrochemical has significantly improved the profitability of industrial yarns, with prices recovering from a low of 700-800 RMB to around 3,000 RMB, benefiting from the petrochemical industry's anti-involution strategy [2][3] - The company plans to enter a debt reduction cycle starting in 2026, with a goal to reduce the debt ratio from 76% to approximately 60% within 3-4 years while maintaining stable dividends and advancing new capacity investments [2][5][16] - Capital expenditures are expected to substantially conclude by 2025, with a focus on utilizing strong operating cash flow to lower the debt ratio [5][6] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese petrochemical industry holds a competitive advantage globally due to high integration levels, cost competitiveness, and a favorable product structure, leading to the gradual exit of traditional production hubs in Europe, Japan, and South Korea [2][7] - The PX (paraxylene) industry is influenced by refining and gasoline products, with global refinery capacity optimization and rapid downstream PTA (purified terephthalic acid) expansion expected to maintain a tight supply-demand situation [2][9] Market Trends and Pricing - PTA prices have rebounded since late October 2025, with a price difference of approximately 300 RMB/ton, indicating some improvement in profitability, although not fully restored [2][10] - The polyester film industry has seen gradual profitability improvements since Q4 2025, with collaborative self-discipline among nine companies stabilizing the profit landscape [2][13][14] Future Development Focus - Hengli Petrochemical's future development priorities include reducing the debt ratio, maintaining stable dividends, and advancing new projects such as fine chemical parks and functional film production lines [2][8] - The company aims to optimize existing operations to enhance efficiency in response to changing market conditions [2][8] Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The supply side of the PX industry is constrained due to the lack of new refinery approvals in China and the aging of overseas refineries, compounded by carbon neutrality policies and geopolitical factors [2][9] - The overall global refining capacity is being optimized, but the rapid expansion of PTA is tightening supply further, with no significant new aromatic chain facilities expected in the near term [2][9] Collaboration and Industry Measures - The petrochemical industry is shifting towards reducing vicious competition and controlling supply to improve profit margins, with Hengli Petrochemical actively promoting anti-involution measures in PTA and industrial yarns [2][4][12] Engineering and Project Updates - As of Q3 2025, Hengli Petrochemical has approximately 33.7 billion RMB in construction projects, primarily in fine chemical parks and production lines, expected to complete the transition to fixed assets by mid-2026 [2][11] Additional Important Insights - The collaboration among companies in the polyester film sector has led to a stabilization of profitability, with a focus on optimizing processes to achieve better financial outcomes [2][13][14] - The overall outlook for the olefins sector remains positive, supported by diverse supply sources and strong demand across various applications, despite the cyclical nature of the market [2][15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong rebound in the Chinese stock market in 2025, with the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion RMB and daily trading volume frequently exceeding 3 trillion RMB, leading to a historical high annual trading volume of 400 trillion RMB [4][5]. Core Insights - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to further increase in 2026, supported by innovation capabilities, favorable policies, ample liquidity, and potential capital inflows from domestic and international institutional investors [5][6]. - Foreign investment interest in the Chinese stock market has significantly increased, with the number of overseas investors from Europe and the US rising by over 30% compared to last year [7]. - The overall earnings growth for A-shares in 2026 is projected to be around 8%, with a breakdown of 5% revenue growth, 4% valuation uplift, and 1% from buyback expectations [10][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the Chinese stock market showed a strong performance, with A-shares' total market value exceeding 100 trillion RMB and daily trading volumes reaching historical highs [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the attractiveness of Chinese assets will continue to rise in 2026, driven by strong innovation, supportive policies, and liquidity [5][6]. Foreign Investment - There is a notable increase in foreign interest in the Chinese stock market, with foreign holdings rising from a low of 2.6% at the end of 2023 to 1.3% currently [7]. Earnings Growth - The expected earnings growth for A-shares in 2026 is around 8%, with contributions from revenue growth, valuation uplift, and profit margin improvements [10][18]. Sector Preferences - Preferred sectors include AI, internet, brokerage, photovoltaic, and overseas companies, with a focus on the growth potential in these areas [11].

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment in the central bank's re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19, 2026, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [4][8] - The report indicates a significant increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation, raising it from 800 billion to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a focus on supporting small and medium-sized private enterprises [5][8] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 29.8% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in November 2025, marking the 25th consecutive month of growth [19][20] - The gaming industry is steadily growing, with animation films leading box office growth, indicating a strong market demand [26][29] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,112.60, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,306.73, up 0.41% [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.88 and 53.38, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [9][10] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.45% and 0.15%, respectively [4] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in price declines, with a focus on sectors such as pesticides and polyester filament [15][16] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 5.11% increase in December 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [18] - The food and beverage sector is under pressure, with a 4.05% decline in December 2025, particularly affecting traditional categories like liquor and meat products [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology innovation and traditional industry recovery, while also highlighting opportunities in the semiconductor and gaming industries [9][10][20] - Specific investment opportunities are recommended in the beverage and snack sectors, particularly in companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations, reflecting the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry in overcoming overcapacity and achieving high-quality development as it approaches its one-year anniversary [1] Industry Dynamics - Multi-crystalline silicon is a core raw material for the photovoltaic industry, and its supply-demand changes serve as a "barometer" for industry prosperity [1] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a "winter" in 2025 due to multiple internal and external factors, including increased trade barriers and stricter carbon footprint certifications [1] - The Chinese government is shifting its focus from price competition to technology and quality competition, which will increase export costs in the short term but is expected to eliminate outdated production capacity in the long run [1] Competitive Landscape - Internal competition remains intense, leading to imbalances in supply and demand, which puts pressure on the entire industry [2] - The government's "anti-involution" policy aims to address disorderly competition, with increasing calls for optimizing industry development and promoting capacity clearance [2] - The National Market Supervision Administration has engaged with industry associations and companies to enhance understanding of the "anti-involution" initiative [2] Market Reactions - The multi-crystalline silicon futures contract reached a peak of 62,200 yuan/ton in December 2025, while the spot market price hovered around 52,000 yuan/ton, indicating a significant market response to expectations of supply-side structural reforms and policy support [4] - The futures market has seen a 200% increase in warehouse receipts, indicating a strong market response and the establishment of a more robust trading environment [5] Regulatory Environment - The futures exchange has implemented regulatory measures against excessive trading and has increased oversight to ensure market stability [4] - The introduction of multi-crystalline silicon futures has provided a financial tool for companies to hedge against price volatility, marking a shift from traditional pricing models [8] Financial Implications - The participation of listed companies in hedging activities has increased, with significant investments planned for risk management [8] - The futures market is expected to enhance market transparency and allow companies to better manage pricing risks, thus improving operational stability [9] Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enter a critical phase of integration and capacity clearance in 2026, transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality improvement [10] - The development of a mature and rational financial derivatives market is essential for the Chinese photovoltaic industry to gain pricing power on a global scale [10]