晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In May, the domestic macroeconomic performance showed some improvement but remained under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5%, up 0.5% from April's 49.0%, indicating continued contraction [2] - The CPI in April decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.7%, with the decline in production material prices contributing to the increased PPI drop [2] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rebound in early May due to easing US-China tariff conflicts and the implementation of central bank policies, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.09% and 1.42% respectively [3] - Among 31 Shenwan industry sectors, 25 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in the environmental protection, pharmaceutical, defense, banking, and textile sectors, all exceeding 6% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Bond yields initially declined following the central bank's rate cuts but later rebounded due to easing signals from US-China trade tensions, with the 1-year government bond yield falling by 5 basis points to 1.46% [4][5] - The overall performance of credit bonds was better than that of interest rate bonds, with the Zhongzheng credit bond index showing a return of 0.43% [5] Group 4: Global Economic Indicators - The US Markit Composite PMI rose to 53.0% in May, indicating expansion, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.4% [6] - Major global stock indices saw collective gains in May, with the S&P 500 rising by 6.15% and Brent crude oil prices increasing by 2.57% due to geopolitical tensions [6] Group 5: Fund Performance Analysis - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a 0.88% increase in May, with equity funds performing particularly well, driven by the strong performance of A-shares [12] - Value-style equity funds outperformed growth and balanced funds, with large-cap value funds achieving an average return of 2.76% [16] Group 6: Sector-Specific Fund Performance - Industry-specific funds, particularly in pharmaceuticals and financial real estate, showed strong performance, with average returns of 6.44% and 2.67% respectively [16][23] - Conversely, technology and communication funds underperformed, with average returns of -2.46% and -2.92% [16][23] Group 7: QDII Fund Performance - QDII funds benefited from strong performances in US and emerging markets, with global emerging market mixed funds achieving an average return of 12.89% in May [27] - However, global bond funds faced challenges, recording an average return of -0.66% due to declines in US bonds [19][27]

Core Viewpoint - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8% [7][9]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Total goods trade value in May 2025 was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (down 2.1%) [8]. - General trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), accounting for 64.2% of total foreign trade [10]. - Processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%), representing 17.9% of total trade [10]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [11]. - Trade with the EU reached 2.3 trillion yuan (up 2.9%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% to 1.72 trillion yuan [11]. Group 3: Enterprise Types - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 10.25 trillion yuan (up 7%) [13]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 5.21 trillion yuan (up 2.3%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 12.7% to 2.44 trillion yuan [13]. Group 4: Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of total exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (up 18.9%) and automobiles (up 6.6%) [14]. - Labor-intensive products saw a decline in exports, while agricultural product exports increased by 4.7% [14]. Group 5: Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports down 5.2% and crude oil imports up slightly by 0.3% [15]. - The import value of mechanical and electrical products grew by 6% [15].

【宏观不确定因素多，镍与不锈钢市场受影响】宏观层面，不确定因素较多，需关注关税等政策进展。 海外方面，美国5月非农就业略超预期但大幅下修前值，市场对美衰退担忧缓解，不过美联储降息预期 后移。国内5月制造业PMI低于荣枯线，通胀承压，CPI和PPI延续负增长，数据表现偏弱。6月9日起， 中美第二轮经贸磋商在伦敦举行，市场风险偏好或随之改变。 印尼镍矿升水坚挺，镍铁价格近期持 稳。6月上半段，印尼镍矿HMA持稳微跌，内贸价格走强，部分矿区降水增加，内贸火法矿升水26 - 30 美元/湿吨。部分印尼镍铁厂成本倒挂减产，但幅度不大，5月印尼镍生铁产量14.14万金属吨，环比降 1.32%，国内镍铁价格持稳于950 - 970元/镍。 不锈钢减产量级有限，淡季成交疲弱。近期行情弱势，部 分钢厂减少6月生产计划，但减幅有限。钢联预估6月国内粗钢排产336.23万吨，环比降2.91%，同比增 2.24%。截至6月5日，300系社会库存64.5万吨，周环比增0.86%。消费淡季，下游刚需补库，端午后库 存增加，关税不确定，终端订单弱。6月10日，青山放开限价，冷热轧平板降100元/吨，现货成交弱。 国内纯镍产量小幅缩减，全球 ...

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Group 1: Market Information - CF01 contract closed at 13490 with a 5-point increase, trading volume was 26,963 (down 25175), and open interest was 136,971 (up 850) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13475 with no change, trading volume was 207 (down 569), and open interest was 2,554 (up 66) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13520 with a 25-point increase, trading volume was 170,148 (down 94667), and open interest was 538,557 (up 96) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19820 with a 75-point decrease, trading volume was 5, and open interest was 35 (up 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18550 with no change, trading volume and open interest were both 0 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19725 with a 15-point decrease, trading volume was 7180 (up 1568), and open interest was 16083 (up 1669) [3] - CCIndex3128B price was 14620 yuan/ton, up 59; CY IndexC32S price was 20300, down 770 [3] - Cot A price was 78.00 cents/pound, up 0.25; FCY IndexC33S price was 21809, down 6 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 77.49, up 0.20; Indian S-6 price was 54000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber price was 7450, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S price was 11180, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber price was 12650, down 150; viscose yarn R30S price was 17250, unchanged [3] - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was 15, up 5; cotton 5 - 9 month spread was -45, down 25; cotton 9 - 1 month spread was 30, up 20 [3] - Cotton yarn 1 - 5 month spread was 1270, down 75; cotton yarn 5 - 9 month spread was -1175, up 15; cotton yarn 9 - 1 month spread was -95, up 60 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6330, down 80; CY05 - CF05 spread was 5075, unchanged; CY09 - CF09 spread was 6205, down 40 [3] - 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 802, up 16; sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 127, up 40; internal - external yarn spread was -1509, down 764 [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of June 7, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4% (98% of the area), up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, compared with 1.7% last year [6] - As of June 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average [6] - The cotton budding rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average [6] - The cotton good - to - excellent rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [6] - Cotton spot trading remained sluggish, sales basis was firm, some low - basis decreased, but the mainstream range changed little [7] - The trading logic is mainly macro - oriented, with large uncertainties in tariff issues. Short - term range - bound oscillation is expected, and medium - to - long - term cotton may continue to decline [8] - For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate stronger in the short term [9] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Cotton Yarn Industry - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton rose, some spinning mills raised quotes, but market trading was light in the off - season, and downstream acceptance of price increases was low [11] - If the macro situation is favorable and cotton prices continue to rise, cotton yarn may follow, but profit is expected to deteriorate [11] - The overall situation of the cotton grey fabric market changed little, demand was weak, prices were stable, and orders were negotiated based on quantity [11] - Conventional plain cloth shipments were slow, inventory increased, and home textile mills' orders were worse than before and not good in the future [11] Group 3: Options - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 282.00, up 34.9%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 28.00, down 69.6%, with an implied volatility of 12.0% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 18.00, down 75.3%, with an implied volatility of 14.6% [13] - Today's 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5891, slightly lower than the previous day [13] - The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.9536, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.7091. Both call and put trading volumes increased, and the market was bearish [14] - It is recommended to wait and see for options [15] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][23][25][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On June 10, for the coking coal 2509 contract, it closed at 786.5, up 0.70%. The supply shows marginal improvement signs, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 10, for the coke 2509 contract, it closed at 1349.0, up 0.48%. The raw - material supply has marginal improvement, and iron - water production has fallen from a high level. It should also be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1349.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures - contract holdings were 696,552.00 lots, up 14,601.00 lots; J futures - contract holdings were 58,010.00 lots, up 305.00 lots [2]. - Coking coal's top 20 contract net - holdings were - 11,422.00 lots, up 23,135.00 lots; coke's top 20 contract net - holdings were 1,245.00 lots, up 465.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 6.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 15.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 100.00 pieces, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 80.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 708.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 215.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; J main - contract basis was 96.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - 110 coal - washing plants' raw - coal inventory was 327.41 million tons, up 16.43 million tons; 110 coal - washing plants' clean - coal inventory was 245.06 million tons, up 22.99 million tons [2]. - 110 coal - washing plants' operating rate was 60.59%, down 0.96 percentage points; raw - coal production was 38,930.60 million tons, down 5,127.60 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports were 3,604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw - coal output was 189.90 million tons, down 1.90 million tons [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory was 545.73 million tons, down 8.03 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory was 266.85 million tons, down 4.93 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' full - sample coking coal total inventory was 818.92 million tons, down 27.41 million tons; independent coking enterprises' full - sample coke inventory was 127.01 million tons, up 15.63 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 770.91 million tons, down 15.88 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 645.80 million tons, down 9.13 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' full - sample coking coal available days were 12.26 days, down 0.24 days; 247 steel mills' coke available days were 11.58 days, down 0.13 days [2]. National Industry Situation - Coking coal imports were 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports were 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal production was 3,926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 75.36%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - Independent coking plants' per - ton coke profit was - 19.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton; coke production was 4,160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast - furnace operating rate was 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.63%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude - steel production was 8,601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. Industry News - My Steel Network: In June, terminal demand is expected to weaken, and building - material consumption is expected to decline by about 3% month - on - month [2]. - Morgan Stanley: International investors' willingness to increase holdings of Chinese stocks, confidence in the "new consumption" and technology sectors have increased [2]. - China Index Academy: Current land - acquisition enterprises are still mainly state - owned enterprises. Real - estate enterprises' sales are still in a downward channel, and private real - estate enterprises' confidence needs sales recovery [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, the general sentiment for the energy and chemical industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), with some品种having "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias) outlooks. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a weakening reality, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to move sideways. The weak domestic economic data in May, including deflation trends and mixed trade data, are the main reasons for the adjustment in the domestic chemical market. However, the relatively stable oil prices limit the downside space for chemicals [1][2][3]. - Crude oil supply surplus expectations remain, but short - term macro and geopolitical factors support prices. OPEC + production increases have not fully met the quota, which helps ease short - term supply concerns, but the cumulative effect of production increases in the second half of the year may lead to a supply surplus [5]. - Different品种in the energy and chemical sector have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are expected to move sideways or sideways with a weak bias. For example, LPG demand is weak, asphalt prices are expected to fall, and PTA supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply surplus expectations remain, and prices are influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. On June 9, SC2507 closed at 474.3 yuan/barrel (+1.76%), and Brent2508 closed at 67.13 dollars/barrel (+0.72%). - **Main Logic**: Macro and geopolitical factors boost short - term prices. Saudi Arabia's actual production increase in May was less than the quota, which eases short - term supply concerns. However, the supply surplus is expected in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of OPEC + production increases. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to move sideways under the balance of OPEC + production pressure and macro - geopolitical support [5]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: Demand is weak, and the upward rebound space is limited. On June 9, PG 2507 closed at 4116 yuan/ton (+0.44%). - **Main Logic**: Domestic refinery maintenance is ending, and supply is increasing. High temperatures reduce domestic combustion demand, and PDH device operating rates are slightly declining, with limited propane demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move sideways at the bottom in the short term [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are expected to fall. The main asphalt futures closed at 3509 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3650 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3695 yuan/ton respectively. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases are driven by geopolitical factors, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, inventory in Shandong is decreasing, but cracking spreads are high, and production in South China is increasing. Demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued. - **Outlook**: The probability of inventory reduction, basis, and calendar spread increases is high, but the absolute price is overvalued [5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The cracking spread is falling. The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2943 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases due to sentiment, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. China's fuel oil import tariff increase and the substitution of natural gas for oil in power generation reduce demand. - **Outlook**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow crude oil and move sideways. The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3525 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Demand is affected by weak refined oil products, shipping demand decline, and energy substitution. Domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: It will follow crude oil price fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Supply resumes quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. On June 9, PX CFR China Taiwan was 808 (-10) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 6494 (-62) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price fluctuations slow down the cost - side guidance. Asian PX operating rates are expected to increase, and PTA device restarts are stronger than maintenance. Domestic PX is in a de - stocking cycle. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand competition intensifies, and prices will continue to consolidate [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the market situation is deteriorating. On June 9, PTA spot price was 4855 (-42) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 473 (13) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Demand is weak due to limited orders and high inventory in the weaving industry. Polyester production and sales are sluggish, and supply is restarting. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand weakens, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Production cuts support processing fees, and prices follow raw materials. On June 9, polyester short - fiber prices were 6485 (-25) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 868 (-39) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber industry's production cuts reduce supply pressure, and the spot basis strengthens. The decline on Monday was due to macro factors, and the industry pattern is still healthy. - **Outlook**: Processing fee compression space is limited, and macro - level negatives dominate the market [15]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow raw materials, and the self - pattern is weak. On June 9, domestic polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the export quotes were also stable. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are weak. The industry is reducing production due to poor profitability, but inventory is still at a five - year high. - **Outlook**: Processing fees will fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the expansion power is limited [16]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7050 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 118 (-7) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds support the cost side, but terminal demand is weak. Supply is increasing, and high - level maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [25]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream LLDPE spot price was 7120 (-10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 42 (-22) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds, but terminal demand is weak. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and demand is low. Overseas prices are stable, and the exchange rate affects the domestic market. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will move sideways in the short term [24]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Prices increase slightly. On June 9, the East China styrene spot price was 7450 (50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 239 (-53) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Weekend sales of pure benzene in Shandong are good, which improves market sentiment. However, the real - time benefits are few, and supply may increase while demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways with a weak bias in the short term [11]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Prices have a weak rebound in the short term. On June 9, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 36 (-16) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Sino - US talks improve market sentiment. However, in the medium - long term, new production capacity, off - season demand, and weak export expectations still put pressure on the market. - **Outlook**: Prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, and the market will be under pressure in the medium - long term without strong macro - stimulus [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices have peaked, and short - selling is recommended. On June 9, the Shandong 32% caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 442 (+27) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the receiving volume of Weiqiao increases. However, concentrated maintenance in June limits the decline space. - **Outlook**: Spot pressure is not large in June, and the 09 contract is expected to be bearish. Short - selling is recommended, but beware of supply reduction and alumina restocking [27]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang was 2325 yuan/ton, and the 01 port spot basis was 48 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Prices are affected by cost pressure and weak demand. Port inventory is increasing, and coal price rebounds have a small impact. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The futures market is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. On June 6, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1760 (-20) and 1740 (-65) yuan/ton respectively, and the main contract closed at 1697 yuan/ton (-1.34%). - **Main Logic**: Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weak. Exports are expected to be reflected in mid - to - late June. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and spot prices may be under pressure. The futures market is expected to move sideways with a weak bias [21]. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different品种have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 4 (-1), and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 0.94 (-0.01) [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each品种has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the asphalt basis is 222 (+36), and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spread data, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 121 (-17) [31].

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