Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The macro - level is the main reason for the recent rise in copper prices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a plan to stabilize growth for industries such as non - ferrous metals, which has raised market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. With the short - term hype points of copper supply - side reform and a relatively strong fundamental situation, copper prices are expected to rise further [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices rose, with total positions increasing by 14,000 lots and trading volume significantly expanding. The market maintained a near - month contango structure and a far - month ack structure, and the spot premium rose to 220 due to tight market supply. Domestic social inventories decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons over the weekend, and low inventories began to affect the spot premium. The LME market had a slight inventory reduction of 100 tons, and the expectation of inventory accumulation continued to suppress the 0 - 3 contango structure. The overseas market was affected by the upcoming US tariff on copper, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas fundamentals [12] 2. Industry News - In June 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,222.29 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35% and a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. From January to June, the total exports were 69,586.5 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.32% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 34,700 tons of scrap copper ingots (red/purple copper ingots), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 71%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 226,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 111% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 68,500 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 382,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.56% [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose, driven by expectations of a new round of supply-side reform. Total positions increased by 17,000 to 678,000, while total trading volume decreased, indicating reduced trading enthusiasm. Spot prices followed the upward trend, with electric carbon rising by 1,350 to 68,000. Although downstream material manufacturers' acceptance of current price levels remains low, their purchasing willingness has marginally improved due to the continuous upward market trend and inventory digestion. Some enterprises' rigid purchasing needs are supporting the market price, pushing up the central price of carbonate lithium spot transactions [11]. - Import Data: In June 2025, China imported 576,000 tons of spodumene, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month. The import volume of ore remains at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals are still weak. The entire carbonate lithium industry chain faces serious problems of overcapacity and price competition [11]. - Market Outlook: The expected inflection point of carbonate lithium futures has preceded the fundamentals. It is expected that the futures price will rise, but the upward trend may be tortuous due to the drag of spot prices [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Spodumene Import: In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was approximately 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month, equivalent to 46,000 tons of LCE. Lithium ore from Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa accounted for 79%. The import volume from Australia was about 256,000 tons, a 31% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe, it was about 101,000 tons, a 3% increase; from South Africa, it was 98,000 tons, an 87% increase. Additionally, the import volume from Nigeria was about 79,000 tons, a 21% increase [14]. - Lithium Hydroxide Trade: In June 2025, China exported 6,260 tons of lithium hydroxide, a 12% increase from the previous month but a 56% decrease from the same period last year. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 96% of the total export volume. The export volume to South Korea was 5,130 tons, a 51% increase from May but a 51% decrease from the same period last year; to Japan, it was 876 tons, a 50% decrease from May and a 74% decrease from the same period last year. In June, China imported 1,482 tons of lithium hydroxide, a significant 76% increase from the previous month [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2509 are respectively "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile and moderately strong", with a reference view of "moderately strong operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - The methanol futures 2509 contract showed a moderately strong intraday trend and a volatile medium - term trend. On the night of Monday this week, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and moderately strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.79% to 2418 yuan/ton [1][5]. Driving Logic - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - **Policy factors**: After the previous sharp correction, the negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. - **Related product factors**: Driven by the sharp rise in coal futures prices, the methanol futures market has been affected [1][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where the upward momentum is insufficient. Although there are signs of a rebound in futures and spot prices, the selling pressure on the futures surface increases as the price rises, and the follow - up may enter a consolidation stage [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the disk since the end of June, but as the previous long - positions gradually take profits and leave the market, the disk may adjust in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.65% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.04% to 9,750 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of industrial silicon prices all showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 6.50% to 9,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, N - type mixed materials, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.13% to 45,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers increased, while the prices of P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm increased by 0.75% [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained mostly unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - SynVista plans to build its first energy storage manufacturing plant in Southeast Asia in Malaysia, with an expected annual production capacity of 5GWh by the end of 2025 [1]. - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume was very small, with a cumulative import volume of 5,200 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories have production reduction plans and no restart information, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season, with power costs decreasing and enterprise start - up rates gradually rising, but the restart speed is slow, and the supply may decrease after offsetting. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories plan to restart production in July, which will bring some demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall start - up rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly, with the output in July approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, and although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may have opportunities for style conversion, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. In the commodity market, different metals and energy - chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends, and the agricultural product market also presents diverse price and supply - demand situations [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Macro news includes the release of the "Housing Rental Regulations", the plan to boost the stock market in Hong Kong, the A - share equity distribution of BYD, and the tense situation of US - EU trade negotiations [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs overseas and the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July domestically. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. There are important international events such as the upcoming visit of EU leaders to China and the change in the result of the Japanese Senate election. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - The economic data in the second quarter is resilient, and the export continues to grow. However, the export - rushing effect may weaken. The central bank's actions show its attitude of protecting funds, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX silver fell slightly. The independence of the Fed is being interfered with, and the prices of precious metals are strong. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The price of copper rose. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. The import was in a loss, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The price is expected to have limited rebound due to factors such as the approaching US copper tariff execution time [10]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum increased. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the overseas inventory also increased. The price is expected to continue to rise in the short - term but may follow the market due to factors such as the off - season and weak export demand [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc increased. The domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price may be strong due to factors such as the dovish Fed atmosphere, but it is bearish in the long - term [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead rose. The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East. The price is expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The price of nickel was strong. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The demand for refined nickel is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. Tin - The price of tin fluctuated upwards. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [18]. Alumina - The price of alumina increased. The spot price in different regions rose, and the import window was closed. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity pattern may remain in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term due to policy support [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price may rise further but has difficulty in continuous increase [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The supply side may eliminate over - capacity, and the demand side is supported by large - scale infrastructure. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to continue to rise. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore increased. The supply of overseas iron ore is recovering, and the demand is strong. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass increased. The market sentiment is positive, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to rise strongly in the short - term [27]. - The price of soda ash increased. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose. The price may be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon increased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - The prices of NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire enterprise开工率 increased, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The price of WTI crude oil fell slightly, and the price of INE crude oil rose. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol increased. The upstream开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - allocate in the sector [44]. Urea - The price of urea increased. The domestic开工率 decreased slightly, and the demand is supported by compound fertilizer production and exports. The price has support below but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The price of styrene increased. The cost side supply is abundant, and the supply side开工率 increased. The inventory increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost side [46][47]. PVC - The price of PVC increased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply side开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. The price is expected to turn weak in the long - term [49]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply side is expected to accumulate inventory, and the demand is in the off - season. The processing fee has limited repair space, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [50]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene increased. The检修 season is over, and the downstream demand is high. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to continue to de - stock. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [51]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene increased. The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [52]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene increased. The supply side开工率 may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The price may rise again in August but is difficult to reach a new high. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips and short - sell the far - month contracts after rebounds [55]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the market sentiment is positive. The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to short - sell the 09 and later contracts after rebounds [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly. The supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is strong. The price is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to supply - side changes [57][58]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil rose. The export and production data of palm oil in Malaysia are complex. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. The price is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the annual - level production increase [59][60][61]. Sugar - The price of sugar fluctuated. The domestic import of sugar increased in June. The price is expected to decline if the international price does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - The price of cotton fell slightly. The downstream consumption is average, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor for the price [64][65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market continues to rise, with equity funds showing a net value increase of 3.06%, particularly in the healthcare theme funds which have demonstrated significant performance advantages [2] - Passive funds are seeing a shift, with inflows into financial real estate and dividend-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, benefiting the "duopoly" in hydropower equipment [4] - The project is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders, significantly boosting infrastructure investment growth in China [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market - As of July 20, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 441,000 units, a decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand home transactions increased by 12.8% [6] Group 4: Steel Industry - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has risen, with rebar prices reaching a new high since April 2025, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [8] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The recent updates on the 2024 medical insurance fund and centralized procurement policies indicate a strong growth momentum for the innovative drug sector, with several companies successfully launching innovative drugs internationally [9] Group 6: Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a stable growth plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to optimize the industry structure by phasing out outdated production capacity [10] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung hydropower project, with domestic sales recovering and export volumes maintaining growth [10] Group 8: Company Research - The report on Mai Fushi indicates a strong market position due to its comprehensive product matrix and high customer retention, with projected revenues of 2.36 billion, 3.17 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has changed from rising to high - level oscillation. It's too hasty to judge that the price has reached the top just based on a single - day decline. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented and the supply - demand relationship is further improved, the price still has support [4]. - The main - rising wave market of the hydropower project - related sectors continues to oscillate upwards [7]. - The general trend of gold is still bullish. It has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - The iron ore futures are in a continued uptrend as the macro - environment improves and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15][16]. - The glass futures are in a continued uptrend, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. - The US new renewable fuel policy may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit the upside [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the recent 16 trading days, and the main contract rose 7.49% on the 17th, hitting a record high. However, it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th [4]. - Technically, the current deviation rate is large, the price is far from the moving average, and the KDJ indicator shows a death cross at a high level, which is usually a signal of a possible price correction [4]. Hydropower Project - Related Sectors - The hydropower project is officially started, and related sectors have risen across the board. The main - rising wave market continues to oscillate upwards [7]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. But the general upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Gold has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains at a high level with decent steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16]. - Technically, the iron ore futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues [15]. Glass - There is no significant change in the fundamentals. The supply side has not seen a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is marginally decreasing, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [20]. - Technically, the glass futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. Palm Oil - The US new renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing up the Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upside [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant investment in the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to drive market sentiment and boost related sectors such as construction and engineering [2][9] - Domestic commodities have shown a strong upward trend due to favorable supply and demand dynamics, with industrial products like alumina, coking coal, and glass experiencing price increases exceeding 5% [3][6] - The report notes that the stock market has been buoyed by the positive sentiment surrounding infrastructure projects, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.72% and 0.67% respectively [2][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the implications of the "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing prices in key industries, which have led to a reversal in the long-term downward trend of industrial raw material prices [6][8] - The report indicates that the recent surge in commodity prices may lead to a shift in market expectations regarding inflation and monetary policy, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015 [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of observing the continuity of demand-side policies to sustain the current market momentum, particularly in light of the recent infrastructure developments [8][9]