| | | | | SUIL FUIURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | なな☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。螺纹表需有所回升，产量稍有回落，累库节奏放缓。热卷需求好转，产量小幅回升,库存继续下降,压力 仍有持缓解。钢厂利润边际修复、由于下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量有所回落。从12月数据看，地产投资降幅 继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. At the end of the week, the mainstream market planned to increase coke prices, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 19. Supported by costs, this price increase is likely to be implemented next week [1]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage efforts are increasing, and coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamental situation of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and spot prices still have upward momentum, but the futures market is affected by other varieties in the sector and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. The planned price increase of coke in the mainstream market is likely to be implemented next week. In the future, the fundamental situation of coking coal will improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum and the futures market expected to fluctuate [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2233.95 million tons, up 64.74 million tons (2.98%) from the previous week [3]. - Coke total inventory was 920.21 million tons, up 4.31 million tons (0.47%) from the previous week [3]. - Steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 228.01 million tons, down 1.49 million tons (-0.65%) from the previous week [3]. - Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (44.44%) from the previous week [3].

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the black sector showed a volatile trend, with the main contract of rebar rising 0.6% and hot-rolled coil rising 0.6%, while iron ore fell 0.3%, coke fell 1.8%, and coking coal fell 2.1%. The raw material end was weak, and the overall market was dull. Steel had limited contradictions in the off-season, and macro policies did not provide strong driving forces. The supply of raw materials was relatively loose, iron ore inventory reached the highest level in history, and Mongolian coal customs clearance continued to increase. This week, the molten iron output decreased month-on-month, reducing the support for raw materials. External commodity fluctuations increased, and after precious metals and non-ferrous metals soared, they fluctuated sharply. The Wenhua Commodity Index reached the previous high of 170 and then declined [2]. - In the context of the lack of positive drivers for black commodities, the weakening support of raw materials, and the commodity index reaching a key resistance level, it is expected that rebar will face significant pressure near the previous high. Currently, the market has entered the winter storage stage. Due to the need for rebar basis repair and the market's expectation of raw material replenishment by steel mills, it may support the futures market in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the possibility of the market weakening after the positive factors weaken. One can choose the opportunity to conduct sell hedging operations or sell out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [2]. - There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In November 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 6234000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, and the cumulative output was 77405000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 6987000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and the cumulative output was 89167000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. The monthly output of steel was 11591000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the cumulative output was 133277000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The monthly import volume of steel was 52000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import volume was 606000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export volume of steel was 1130000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the cumulative export volume was 11902000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [6]. - **Weekly Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 190300 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11%. The weekly consumption was 190340 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 8%. The inventory was 438070 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%. The weekly output of wire rod was 73490 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%. The weekly consumption was 72000 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%. The inventory was 91760 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil was 308360 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 314160 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inventory was 362330 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The weekly output of cold-rolled coil was 88670 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The weekly consumption was 91930 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The inventory was 158490 tons, a decrease of 3.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 158390 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.78%. The weekly consumption was 158150 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.17%. The inventory was 196360 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 819210 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.16%. The total weekly consumption was 826000 tons, an increase of 29 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. The total inventory was 1247000 tons, a decrease of 6.91 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7]. Steel Production Profit - On January 15, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 120, a decrease of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 33, an increase of 2; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, an increase of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 19, an increase of 15. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 5, a decrease of 7; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 55, an increase of 1; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 29, no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was - 93, an increase of 3. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, no change; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 46, a decrease of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, a decrease of 17; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, a decrease of 10 [22]. Steel Demand - **Real Estate**: In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19% [30]. - **Cement and Concrete**: The cement delivery volume was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [33]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 1.13 million tons, close to the historical highest level. The export profit of hot-rolled coil has generally declined recently [39]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar**: The rebar basis decreased slightly this week, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coil. Later, the rebar output may be stronger than the seasonal performance, and the decline will weaken. The apparent demand increased month-on-month, but it may only be a short-term pulse phenomenon. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier in the lunar calendar. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to relatively better rebar supply, and the month spread is difficult to strengthen [52][62]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 30, with little change. Although it is currently at a low level, the relatively high inventory of hot-rolled coil still suppresses the basis and limits the upward space. The hot-rolled coil 5 - 10 month spread fluctuates around - 20. The overall high inventory of hot-rolled coil and the difficulty in de-stocking suppress the month spread [56][67]. Price Difference - **Volume - Rebar Price Difference**: There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the impact of geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes on prices and provides trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in Iran are controllable, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In Q1 2026, global crude oil supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure is significant, which suppresses oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical threats may tighten Asian supply, supporting high - sulfur cracking spreads in the short term, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will gradually ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [22] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt follows crude oil price movements but with a relatively limited amplitude. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] - **Urea**: The weekend urea spot market was stable. With the approaching spring demand and macro - positive factors, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [24] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian geopolitical situation cooled, the methanol market had a large - amplitude rise and then a fall. Overseas plant operation rates are low, and port inventories are decreasing. However, demand is weakening, and the short - term market is in a multi - empty game [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed's short - term interest rate cut is unlikely. Geopolitical tensions support a long - term bullish view on precious metals [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper market oscillated around 100,000. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, LME spot premiums, and domestic copper social inventories. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment in the power grid has a 7% annual compound growth rate. Continue the strategy of selling call options at high levels [4] - **Aluminum**: The short - term funds' sentiment is volatile. Wait for the volatility to decline before participating. Aluminum smelters can sell and hedge at high prices in the current range [5] - **Zinc**: After the market digested the news, it will gradually return to fundamental trading. High prices have a negative impact on consumption, but the supply pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price may correct to 24,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: There are both maintenance and restart of lead smelters. The refined - scrap price difference is 200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead price has a large downward pressure at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, and attention should be paid to the 17,000 yuan/ton support [9] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2026. The market is mainly trading on the South American bumper harvest expectation. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US biomass fuel policy is expected to improve the marginal demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil has short - term high - inventory pressure. The overall view is for range - bound oscillations [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The China - Canada trade agreement may lead to a marginal relaxation of domestic rapeseed supply, putting short - term pressure on rapeseed prices [38] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures oscillated. The national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. The short - term trend is wide - range oscillation, and seasonal risks should be noted later [40] - **Cotton**: The US cotton signing data is good, but the domestic Zhengzhou cotton market is in adjustment. The downstream demand is average, and the short - term fundamental driving force is weakened [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is affected by different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market's trading focus is on the production volume difference. The Zhengzhou sugar's rebound is expected to be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price rose and then fell. The market's trading focus is on demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the inventory reduction speed [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: The A - share market opened high and closed low. The stock index is expected to change from a one - way rapid rise to an oscillatingly strong trend. The upward slope will slow down. Attention should be paid to the transition of the upward driver and geopolitical disturbances [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance, and the curve continued to steepen. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly. There may be an opportunity to flatten the curve when the 30 - 10y spread reaches 50bp [49] - **Shipping Index**: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term, and the long - term contracts are under the pressure of the resumption of shipping. The contract rules will be adjusted [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are neutral, lacking driving forces, and are in a range - bound state. The current core contradiction lies in the furnace charge end. In the short term, finished steel products are supported by the cost end, with limited downside space but lacking upward driving forces. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The price range of the main rebar contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200, and that of the main hot - rolled coil contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Rebar production recovery has slowed down marginally, apparent consumption has rebounded unexpectedly, and inventory has turned to destocking, but the change is small. In the future, inventory may enter a restocking trend again. Overall, rebar inventory is at a low level and is in a destocking trend compared to the same period seasonally. - The destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large compared to the same period, it is in a destocking state seasonally. However, the recent increase in hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is significant, with a 58% week - on - week increase [1]. - For iron ore, steel mills' inventory is low, with restocking expectations supporting prices. But the decline in molten iron production and the continuous restocking of port inventory make it difficult for prices to rise significantly. - For coking coal, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and port inventory is increasing. The recovery of mine开工率 and the accumulation of mine coking coal inventory will suppress prices. Although winter storage supports prices, the large inventory base limits the upside space [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased month - on - month, but demand is weak in the off - season. - The coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, with the highest inventory level in the past five years, and the destocking pressure is high. - The low inventory of steel mills' iron ore at ports supports iron ore prices, while the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products. - Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge [1][5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The 05 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.13% and a volatility percentile of 14.3%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.84% and a volatility percentile of 5.83% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [7]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive Information**: Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge; the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have rebounded; the low inventory of steel mills at ports supports iron ore prices; the destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has improved marginally [14]. - **Negative Information**: The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and production has increased month - on - month; the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, and there is no driving force on the consumption side; export controls have taken effect [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: Analyzed the basis seasonality of rebar and hot - rolled coil 05 contracts in Shanghai [16][17]. - **Coil - to - Rebar Spread**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the spot coil - to - rebar spread in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as the seasonal changes in 01, 05, and 10 coil - to - rebar spreads [18][19][20]. - **Term Structure**: Analyzed the term structure spread diagrams of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore futures, and coking coal [24][25][26]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Structure**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01) [27][28][29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have improved marginally, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [31]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal changes in hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, the relationship between hot - rolled coil export profit and export volume, and the relationship between the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coils and steel export orders [46][48][49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of the five major steel products have decreased year - on - year, and the current inventory has also decreased compared to the beginning of the year [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the relationship between steel production, profits, and inventory, as well as the impact of blast furnace and electric furnace production and maintenance on supply [66][70][71]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the predicted seasonality of the apparent demand for crude steel, the consumption of the five major steel products, and the inventory and sales ratio of various steel products [82][91][101].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend, but poor operability on the disk [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel and hot-rolled coil [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market has minor supply-demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke market is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues and the impact of relevant policies [4] - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory increase and policy expectations [6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as inventory structure and cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost changes [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies and cost factors. The demand has certain resilience, and attention should be paid to relevant impacts and cost support [8] Summary by Directory Steel - Today's disk rose first and then fell. The apparent demand for thread steel increased this week, with a slight decline in production and a slower inventory accumulation rhythm. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, with a slight increase in production and a continued decline in inventory, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits have marginally recovered. Due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and pig iron production has declined [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the market sentiment is cautious, and the disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market trend [2] Iron Ore - Today's disk showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally compared with the previous period, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved compared with the previous period. This week, pig iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3] - Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level. The expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating. The fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventories have slightly increased [4] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [4] - The coke disk has a premium. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in the total inventory of coking coal and the relatively high customs clearance data of Mongolian coal, the price is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the disk price, the transaction price has increased [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the winter storage actions in the market [6] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [6] - The coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in inventory and customs clearance data, the price is likely to be weak and volatile in the short term [6] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of manganese ore for furnace charging. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - The spot transaction price of manganese ore has increased last week. The pig iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [8] - The pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has certain resilience [8] - The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [8]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 3，基差：期货贴水现货 137 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 15 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 0.74 万吨至 190.3 万吨，连续四周回升之后开始小幅回落，公历同比下降 2.99 万吨，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.84%，环比上周减少 0.47 个百分点，同比去 年增加 1.66 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.48%，环比上周减少 0.56 个百分点，同比去年增加 1.20 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 39.83%，环比上周增 加 2.17 个百分点，同比去年减少 10.39 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.01 万 吨，环比上周减少 1.49 万吨。本周产量出现回落，螺纹周产量相比近几年 仍然偏低。一定程度支撑价格。 需求端：表需回升，冬储可能开始，截至 1 月 15 日当周，表观消费 量周环比上升 15.38 万吨至 190.34 万吨，年同比增加 5.19 万吨，表需连续 三周下降之后开始大幅回升，冬储需求可能启动。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移且偏弱运行，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2][4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，宏观推动暂缓、基本面支撑偏弱，但资金看涨情绪未冷却，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，多数1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] - 观点为震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] 铝锭 -宏观上美国就业市场稳健，市场预计美联储1月27 - 28日会议维持利率不变，特朗普决定暂不对关键矿物征关税，资金对白银、铜、铝等看多情绪降温 [3] -北方铝土矿复产初期生产节奏慢，国产矿石供应偏紧格局有望逐步缓解，两会后生产节奏预计加快；南方国产矿生产无明显变动；截至本周四氧化铝厂铝土矿库存环比增加70.36万吨；氧化铝价格走弱，氧化铝厂对铝土矿溢价采购意愿低，预计国产矿价格仍有下行空间 [4] -本周国内铝下游加工各版块龙头企业开工率分化，受春节临近成品备库需求影响，开工率环比微升0.2个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价抑制下游消费与行业开工回升 [4] - 1月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存73万吨，较上周一同比上涨4.6万吨 [4] - 观点为预计价格短期高位运行，关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish view on the steel industry, suggesting that it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract decreased its open interest by 6,339 lots on Thursday. The trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 754,088 lots. It fluctuated throughout the day, with a short - term retracement to the 5 - day moving average and support from the 10 - day moving average. It remained above the 20 - day moving average in the medium term, closing at 3,160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 140 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 29,900 tons lower year - on - year. The production decline provided some support to prices [2]. - Demand: Apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons as of the week of January 15, and was 51,900 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating that winter storage demand might have started [2]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. Social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons but was still at a low level in recent years, while steel mill inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in steel mill inventory suggested that traders were conducting winter storage [2]. Macro - environment - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - environment was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although incremental demand was relatively limited, the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [3]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory is at a three - year low, the supply side is reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity is strictly controlled, policies support demand, post - holiday demand will marginally improve, and the macro - environment is expected to be loose [4]. - Bearish factors: Inventory may increase more than expected after the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may slow down, blast furnace restart may accelerate, winter storage demand is cautious, real estate demand continues to decline, exports are restricted, and economic recovery is weak [4]. Short - term View Summary - The short - term view is to maintain a cautiously bullish stance, pay attention to the support near the 10 - day moving average, and it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season of consumption, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The arrival of winter storage still needs time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the market supervision's interview with the photovoltaic association and related enterprises has affected market sentiment. For both steel and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and production slightly rebounded. In the off - season, the steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day and down 25 yuan (- 0.78%) from last week. - The 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons (0.91%) [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the off - season, and the molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded by about 2.1 million tons last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The arrival of pre - festival restocking demand will be later than usual this year due to the late Spring Festival. Global shipments have declined, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the price of iron ore [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.18%) from the previous day and down 7 yuan (- 0.85%) from last week. - The Australian iron ore shipments are 1659.5 million tons, down 39 million tons (- 2.30%) [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In December 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 10.9291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.83% and a year - on - year increase of 71.31%. From January to December 2025, Mongolia's cumulative coal exports were 90.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.48% [6]. - HeSteel obtained the first steel export license order in Hebei Province for 2026, which will be shipped to Chittagong, Bangladesh [6]. - As of the week ending January 14, according to Zhaogang.com, the national building materials production was 4.4952 million tons, an increase of 0.042 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 3.8945 million tons, a decrease of 0.0565 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 3.5609 million tons, an increase of 0.121 million tons from last week [6]. - In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates and 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite [6].