点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金四季度仓位变动：股票仓位有所下降；A股仓位上升，港股继续下降 2025年四季度，A股整体窄幅震荡。11月中上旬，受中美关系阶段性缓和与"十五五"政策预期带动，上证指数一度刷新年内高点；其后在美联储降息节奏 反复、市场对AI估值泡沫担忧升温等因素扰动下，风险偏好有所回落；至12月中旬跨年行情启动，市场再度走强。总体来看，四季度上证指数上涨 2.2%；前期表现强势的成长风格回调，科创50下跌10.1%，跌幅靠前，创业板指收跌1.1%；偏大盘的上证50上涨1.4%而沪深300微跌0.2%；偏中小盘的中 证1000和中证2000分别上涨0.3%和3.6%；红利风格有所表现，中证红利指数上涨0.8%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数为-1.5%， 较上季度显著下降，单季收益为年内最低。 公募基金资产规模继续扩张，权益资产占比下降，债券资产占比回升。 公募基金整体资产规模连续三个季度扩张，四季度资产总值由上季度的38.1万亿元 升至39.5万亿元。其中，股票资产规模小幅上升至9万亿元以上，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度下降0.7个百分点至22.9%；债券资产占比较上季度上升 ...

Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a structural bull market in 2025, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising nearly 30% in the first three quarters, driven by the global recognition of the value of innovative drugs and devices [2][3] - The industry is expected to enter a critical phase of innovation realization and global expansion in 2026, shifting investment logic from expectation-driven to closely tracking clinical data, commercialization progress, and international achievements [2][3] Valuation Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with significant investment opportunities still available. As of December 31, 2025, various sub-sectors are trading at relatively low valuations, such as biopharmaceuticals at 35.16X and medical devices at 33.07X [7][9] - The medical services, chemical raw materials, and chemical preparations sectors have shown impressive growth, with increases of 29.22%, 22.03%, and 20.44% respectively [7] Revenue and Profit Trends - From January to November 2025, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported total revenue of 220.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.51%, while total profit decreased by 1.79% [9] - The performance of the biopharmaceutical, medical services, and pharmaceutical distribution sectors has improved, with biopharmaceuticals benefiting from rapid drug volume growth post-collection [9] Fund Management and Investment Opportunities - As of the end of Q3 2025, public funds' holdings in the pharmaceutical sector were at 11.22%, below the ten-year average of 8.15%, indicating potential for excess returns as the sector approaches a performance inflection point [11] - The low allocation of public funds and the sector's historical low valuations present significant opportunities for investment in high-potential sub-sectors and individual stocks [11] Innovation and Policy Support - The Chinese biopharmaceutical industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, with significant improvements in innovation capabilities among the top 100 pharmaceutical companies [14][21] - The government has implemented comprehensive policies to support the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, transitioning from single-item support to a full-chain, regional, and financial support system [15][28] Global Market Position - China has become the second-largest market for innovative drug launches globally, contributing approximately 30% of the world's innovative pipelines as of Q3 2025 [50][66] - The country is increasingly recognized for its efficiency and cost-effectiveness in drug development, with a significant number of clinical trials initiated in China, particularly in oncology [53][66] Licensing and Commercialization Trends - The number of license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has surged, with 103 deals recorded in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling $92.03 billion, marking a 77% increase year-on-year [43][63] - The successful inclusion of innovative drugs in the new commercial insurance directory is expected to enhance their commercialization prospects [30] Future Growth Areas - Next-generation therapies, including ADCs, bispecific antibodies, and cell and gene therapies, are becoming focal points for research and investment, with China leading in these areas [76][87] - The oncology drug market is projected to reach $441 billion, with new therapies expected to account for about 20% of treatment expenditures by 2029 [82]

AI基金易方达产业机遇混合A（021179）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润412.61万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1396元。报告期内，基金净值增 长率为10.89%，截至四季度末，基金规模为4298.18万元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至1月22日，单位净值为1.612元。基金经理是杨宗昌，目前管理的2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月22日，易方达 供给改革混合近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达70.29%；易方达产业机遇混合A最低，为55.4%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，四季度，本基金继续延续三季度以科技创新为配置主线，同时结合自下而上个股挖掘方式构建组合，结合三季度以来市场变化 对组合进行较大调整和再平衡，整体配置在风格上更趋均衡。考虑到存储模组公司、AI 产业链温控及电源公司涨幅较大，估值提升明显，我们大幅减持了 相关持仓。在 TMT 板块内，配置方向转向半导体设备与材料，重点布局受下游存储客户扩产影响较大的股票或者国产替代渗透率较低环节的公司。在周期 板块，我们提高了煤炭行业的配置比例，同时增配化工板块中部分调整较为充分、估值回归合理的个股。汽车板块，我们继续保持了相关公司的 ...

Industry Trends - In 2026, companies will focus on localized operations and technology-driven overseas warehouse systems, particularly in the U.S. market, enhancing operational efficiency through "micro-headquarters" that integrate marketing, customer service, and supply chain[1] - By 2025, 44% of Chinese companies have developed detailed plans for the Middle East, with 40% achieving profitability, indicating a shift from rapid expansion to meticulous cultivation in this market[2] - AI is reshaping marketing strategies, with over 70% penetration in influencer marketing and precise targeting, significantly improving brand exposure and sales[4] - The Chinese robotics industry is transitioning from product export to brand globalization, with a 54.9% increase in industrial robot exports in the first three quarters of 2025[4] Brand Dynamics - Alibaba's AliExpress aims to enhance brand globalization through overseas warehouse services, targeting a tenfold increase in GMV for participating merchants[13] - Pop Mart's overseas revenue surged from 137 million yuan to 5.593 billion yuan in four years, attributed to a shift from a distributor model to direct sales and the implementation of a cloud ERP system[14] - Jitu Express reported a 300 billion package volume in 2025, with overseas business accounting for nearly 30% of total operations, driven by a 67.8% growth in Southeast Asia[16] - The pet brand Vetreska achieved over $30 million in sales in two years by targeting North American middle-class consumers and utilizing localized marketing strategies[18]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound, with the pharmaceutical ETF (159929) rising by 0.8% and a total trading volume exceeding 86 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest and capital inflow [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The pharmaceutical ETF (159929) has seen a capital inflow of over 320 million yuan in the last 20 days, with 15 of those days showing increased funding [1]. - The latest financing balance has surged to over 75 million yuan, reflecting continued leverage in the market [1]. - Major stocks within the ETF, such as Mindray Medical and United Imaging, have shown positive performance, with several stocks rising over 1% [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The report highlights a shift in focus within the pharmaceutical sector towards innovative fields such as AI healthcare and medical robotics, moving away from previously strong areas like brain-computer interfaces [3]. - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) sector has also shown some performance, driven by market sentiment and expectations of turning points in the industry [3]. - The top three investment directions identified for 2026 include BD 2.0, small nucleic acids, and supply chain (CXO and upstream), emphasizing the importance of innovation and international expansion [5]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Key companies in the ETF include WuXi AppTec, with an estimated weight of 10.77%, and Hengrui Medicine, with a weight of 9.41%, both of which are significant players in the pharmaceutical industry [2]. - Tempus AI reported a revenue of approximately 1.27 billion USD for 2025, marking an 83% year-on-year growth, showcasing the commercial viability of AI in healthcare [6]. - NVIDIA and Eli Lilly announced a partnership to establish an AI innovation lab, investing up to 1 billion USD over five years to address challenges in drug discovery and development [5].

【导读】拾贝投资投委会主席胡建平：努力在确定的市场中把握节奏，将优势转化为胜势 中国基金报记者任子青 1月21日，拾贝投资举办投资者交流会，拾贝投资投委会主席胡建平以"努力把确定的趋势转化成收 益"为题，回顾2025年的投资得失并展望未来市场机会。 胡建平认为，全球的经济格局正在或者已经发生深刻的变化，但市场定价尚不充分。物价端，PPI、CPI 均存向好趋势，统一大市场建设助力产业提质增效。出海是兼具时代机遇与历史使命的长期投资主线， 医药行业的成长才刚起步，AI领域仍是今年最大的机会所在。 在后续的投资中将始终坚守价值投资的核心逻辑，同时积极拥抱AI技术，努力在确定的市场中把握节 奏，把优势转化成胜势。 全球经济格局已发生深刻变化 市场并未充分反应 过去一年，拾贝投资在全球视野的构建上有所进步，在多空维度的布局上积极探索实践，在周期视角的 研判上不断深耕打磨，同时始终坚守价值投资的核心逻辑。在此基础上，将进一步融入AI工具与技 术，以智能化能力赋能投资决策，让专业判断与科技力量深度结合，AI可以改变投研覆盖的宽度、速 度和深度，进而改变投资的胜率和赔率分布，最后改变投资的模式。 胡建平表示，全球的经济格局正 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with total production and sales expected to exceed 34 million units by 2025, driven largely by the growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1] - The market is increasingly dominated by domestic brands, with the top ten companies capturing over 70% of the market share, indicating a pronounced "Matthew Effect" [1] - Profitability has become the primary focus for companies, shifting from merely increasing sales volume to ensuring sustainable profits [1][6] Market Dynamics - NEV production and sales reached 16.62 million and 16.49 million units respectively in 2025, marking year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [1] - The concentration of the NEV market is intensifying, with the top ten companies expected to hold over 74% of the market share by 2025, up from approximately 67% in 2024 [1] Company Performance - BYD leads the market with a total NEV sales volume of 4.60 million units in 2025, including 2.26 million pure electric vehicles, surpassing Tesla to become the global leader in pure electric sales [2] - Geely, Changan, and SAIC-GM-Wuling have joined the "million club," with Geely's NEV sales skyrocketing to 1.69 million units, marking a 90.02% increase year-on-year [3] - New entrants like Xiaomi and Leap Motor are rapidly gaining traction, with Xiaomi achieving over 410,000 units sold in 2025, while Leap Motor's sales reached 596,600 units, reflecting a 103.13% increase [3] Financial Performance - BYD reported revenues of 566.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.33 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a high gross profit margin of 17.87% [6][7] - New players like Leap Motor and Xiaomi have also reported significant revenue growth, with Leap Motor achieving a 174% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [8] Technological Advancements - AI technology has become a core competitive advantage in the NEV sector, transitioning from concept to practical application in 2025 [10] - Major companies are integrating advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) into more affordable models, making high-tech features more accessible [11] Management Strategies - Companies are focusing on refined management practices to navigate the competitive landscape, with an emphasis on organizational restructuring and supply chain management [14][16] - Cost control measures are evolving, moving away from extravagant marketing to data-driven customer acquisition strategies [16] Capital and Investment - The importance of capital is underscored by significant fundraising activities, with BYD raising 43.5 billion HKD in a major equity financing round [18] - Companies like NIO and Zero Run are also securing substantial investments to support their growth and technological advancements [18] Export Growth - The export of Chinese NEVs reached 2.62 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 100% and accounting for 36.84% of total automotive exports [19] - BYD remains the leader in exports, with 1.05 million units shipped abroad, benefiting from its overseas manufacturing presence [19]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy commercial vehicle market in China is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, with sales projected to reach 954,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.5%, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth in the industry [1][2]. Market Penetration - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has consistently exceeded 30% for four consecutive months, marking a new phase of large-scale application [1][2]. - In 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles are expected to reach 871,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.7%, accounting for 26.9% of total commercial vehicle sales [2][3]. Sales and Orders - The cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2025 are projected to reach 231,100 units, a substantial increase of 182% year-on-year, with December alone achieving a record monthly sales of 45,300 units [3]. - Significant orders have been reported, including a strategic cooperation agreement between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Bashu Logistics for 1,000 heavy trucks, with the first batch of 200 units to be delivered [4]. Future Market Potential - The overall commercial vehicle market in China is expected to reach 4.25 million units in 2026, with a projected penetration rate for new energy vehicles exceeding 35% [5]. - By 2030, the penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks is anticipated to surpass 50%, with a market size exceeding 450,000 units [5]. Transition to Market-Driven Growth - The industry is moving away from reliance on subsidies, with customers increasingly focusing on product performance and total lifecycle costs [6]. - The decline in battery prices and the adoption of vehicle-to-grid models are making new energy commercial vehicles more affordable [7]. Technological Advancements - The energy density of power batteries has improved, allowing for enhanced range without increasing vehicle weight, with battery capacities primarily in the 400 kWh to 600 kWh range [7]. - The introduction of ultra-fast charging solutions and extensive charging networks is addressing user pain points and facilitating the large-scale deployment of new energy commercial vehicles [8]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the commercial vehicle sector is evolving, with a focus on smart technology that can deliver economic benefits and reduce marginal costs [9]. - Major manufacturers are investing in intelligent vehicle technologies, with several companies launching models equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems [9]. International Expansion - Overseas markets are viewed as critical growth areas, with companies like Foton aiming for 200,000 units in overseas sales by 2026, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group targeting 300,000 units by 2030 [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in international markets remains low, presenting opportunities for early movers [11]. Ecosystem Development - The competition in the commercial vehicle industry is shifting from product-centric to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, focusing on long-term value creation for customers [11].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the semiconductor sector leading the gains, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.37% to close at 26,585.06 points[3][10] - U.S. stock markets saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.21% to 49,077 points, and the S&P 500 rising 1.16% to 6,875 points, driven by improved market sentiment following Trump's announcement regarding Greenland[8][10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index recovered, closing at 98.76, while the Swiss franc fell sharply as risk aversion eased[4][23] - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising 0.46% to $60.62 per barrel, and Brent crude up 0.5% to $65.24 per barrel[4][23] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields declined by 1-6 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.24% and the 30-year yield at 4.86%[4][27] - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasuries showed strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86, indicating robust investor interest[4][27] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector led the market with a 2.38% increase, supported by the International Energy Agency's upward revision of global oil demand forecasts[8] - In Hong Kong, the semiconductor sector surged, with stocks like兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation) rising over 6%[10] Corporate Developments - Full-year shareholder returns for 满帮集团 (Manbang Group) are projected to be at least $400 million, with a focus on expanding into new business areas like smart driving[8] - 乐舒适 (Leshushi) is positioned to capture significant market share in Africa's personal care sector, with a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2020 to 2024[12] Global Trade and Policy - Trump's announcement of a framework agreement regarding Greenland has eased trade tensions, contributing to positive market sentiment[4][8] - The European Parliament has postponed voting on the U.S.-EU trade agreement, reflecting ongoing trade negotiations[5]