2025年，中国资产迎来一波久违的行情，上证指数多次站上4000点。这一轮市场行情，由硬科技和新经 济作为先锋，走出一轮科技突破和产业驱动、资金流入和风险偏好提升同频共振推动下的"科技重估"行 情。 近两个月以来，资产轮动告一段落，A股上涨动能有所减弱，恒生科技明显回调。一方面，科技成长的 单边行情歇脚，"AI泡沫论"的浮现也透露出投资者对双创行情的迟疑；但另一方面，在更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策总基调下，业内人士认为，不应悲观。 一个关键而又急迫的话题摆在眼前：展望2026年，是否会上演从估值抬升的"急而促"行情转向盈利支撑 的"缓而慢"的行情？ 近日，老牌知名私募相聚资本在2026年年度投资策略展望中表示，市场整体下行风险较小，对取得一定 的绝对回报充满信心。但或不同于2025年宽基指数接近20%的涨幅，需适当降低投资回报预期。未来一 年，大概率依旧是以结构性行情为主，选股逻辑与当前保持一致，关注人工智能、大宗商品以及出海等 方向的投资机会。 外部环境宽松支持股市继续走强 2025年，A股市场走出强势回归行情，截至目前，上证指数、沪深300指数今年以来的涨幅接近20%， 创业板指更是实现50% ...

周期的进攻与防守 20251228 摘要 中国上市公司海外毛利率持续高于国内，尤其在资本和技术密集型行业， 竞争优势显著。2026 年全球需求对中国出海企业友好，受益于美联储 宽松周期后半程，全球工业与基建资本开支上行，新兴市场工业化加速， 欧美能源技术设施更新。 航空业被视为大级别投资机会，票价同比转正成催化剂。尽管 12 月票 价波动，但年底旅游旺盛，预计元旦后工商恢复，春节假期集中，票价 弹性向上。油价和汇率利好，建议战略布局中国国航、吉祥航空、中国 东航、南方航空及春秋航空。 油运市场运价上周波动显著，但长期看好。原油增产驱动需求，2026 年交付 30 艘 VLOC，合规市场运力增长有限。春节前后淡季是布局良机， 关注中远海能、招商轮船、招商南油和中国船舶租赁。 化工行业氨纶板块表现亮眼，华峰化学成本优势显著，受益于需求增长 和产能扩张。煤化工板块如华鲁恒升，纯碱方面博源化工，制冷剂板块 巨化股份和东岳集团值得关注。 金属板块强势，黄金创新高，白银、铜、铝、碳酸锂上涨。供给刚性， 降息及海外流动性复苏需求，贵金属及工业金属库存低位。中长期上行 趋势不变，关注货币政策、地缘政治及供给不确定性。推荐工业 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector Outlook for 2026**: The consumer sector is expected to recover significantly, driven by a focus on domestic demand and policy support, particularly in service consumption and new product categories. The real estate sector's negative impact is diminishing, with core CPI showing six months of recovery [2][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long Bull Market Prediction**: A long bull market similar to 2016-2019 is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2026, led by AI-driven new products, service consumption, overseas opportunities, and durable goods. The first half of 2026 will see strong performance in overseas markets, while domestic demand will gain attention in the latter half [1][5][6]. - **Policy Support for Consumer Spending**: The introduction of a resident income increase plan by the central economic work conference, along with the appreciation of the RMB and favorable trade policies, will provide a solid foundation for consumer spending in the coming years [1][9][10]. - **AI and 3D Printing Opportunities**: The AI and 3D printing sectors are poised for significant growth, with opportunities across the entire supply chain, including leading companies and innovative hardware products like AI glasses and smart mattresses [1][12]. Key Sectors and Companies to Watch - **Service Consumption**: Focus on service consumption growth in 2026, particularly in travel and tourism, as well as the elderly care sector, which is expected to see increased demand [3][15]. - **Alcohol and Snack Industries**: The liquor sector, particularly major brands like Moutai, is expected to maintain strong performance due to price stability measures. The snack sector is also showing promise, with companies like Wanchen and Yanjin expected to perform well during the pre-Spring Festival period [16][20][24]. - **Elderly Economy**: The silver economy is anticipated to grow, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Aima Technology showing potential in the elderly travel and mobility sectors [15][11]. Investment Logic and Recommendations - **Consumer Sector Investment**: The consumer sector is seen as undervalued, with significant room for valuation recovery. The focus should be on companies benefiting from policy support and improving domestic demand [2][30]. - **Emerging Technologies**: Investment opportunities in AI and new technologies, particularly in 3D printing and AI-enhanced products, are highlighted as key growth areas [12][35]. - **Overseas Expansion**: Companies with strong overseas branding and supply chain capabilities are recommended for investment, especially in light of the RMB appreciation [13][31]. Additional Insights - **Real Estate Market Impact**: The negative impact of the real estate market on consumer spending is expected to be limited, as government measures to boost public spending and social security are likely to stabilize purchasing power [7][8]. - **Consumer Market Drivers**: Key drivers for the consumer market include urbanization, rising GDP per capita, and demographic shifts, particularly the aging population, which will influence consumption patterns [10][11]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The snack and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from new retail models and consumer trends, with specific companies recommended for their growth potential [20][24][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities in the consumer sector for 2026.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies such as BYD, Geely Automobile, and others in the automotive sector, as well as companies like Li Auto-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and others in the smart technology and robotics sectors [2]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined six key tasks related to the automotive industry, emphasizing domestic demand, innovation, reform, openness, coordinated development, and green transformation, which are expected to stabilize and boost automotive demand [12][13]. - The report highlights that passenger car exports have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 20% for six consecutive months, with expectations for double-digit growth in wholesale exports by 2026 due to recovering demand in markets like Russia and the increasing export of new energy vehicles [14]. - The report notes that the smart driving experience is expected to improve significantly with advancements in new architectures and high-performance chips, leading to increased consumer acceptance and sales for leading companies in smart driving technology [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking Market and Sector Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shenwan Automotive Index rose by 2.74% [21]. - The top five stocks with the highest gains this week included Chaojie Co. (+41.6%), Longji Machinery (+33.7%), and others, while the top five stocks with the largest declines included Meidong Automotive (-6.5%) and others [28]. Passenger Car Sales Data - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 568,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while the retail sales were 536,000 units, also down 11% year-on-year [4][32]. - For November 2025, wholesale sales were 2.991 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales at 1.694 million units, up 17.6% year-on-year [5][35]. - The report indicates that the export of passenger cars in November was 594,000 units, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle exports reaching 273,000 units, up 244.1% year-on-year [51][57]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the rapid development of smart technology and robotics, with significant advancements in autonomous driving and AI integration in vehicles, indicating a shift towards a more intelligent automotive market [17][19]. - The report also mentions the increasing focus on new energy vehicles and the expansion of charging infrastructure, which has reached 19.322 million charging points, marking a 52% year-on-year growth [73].

Core Viewpoint - Tiger Head Battery, a well-established battery manufacturer in Guangzhou, has successfully expanded its international presence, particularly in emerging markets, while maintaining strong sales performance during the recent Canton Fair [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tiger Head Battery, founded in 1928, is a leading battery manufacturer in China, with products sold in over 100 countries and regions [1]. - The company has a significant market share in many regions, achieving over 80% in some areas [1]. - The company’s product innovation rate reached 8% during the recent Canton Fair, indicating a focus on developing new products alongside expanding its customer base [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - In the first 11 months of the year, Guangdong's foreign trade reached 8.61 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, with Tiger Head contributing significantly to this growth [2]. - The company exports over 60 billion dry batteries annually, with 80% of its sales directed towards international markets [5]. Group 3: Market Strategy - Tiger Head has tailored its marketing strategies to different regions in Africa, enhancing local engagement and maximizing marketing efficiency [4]. - The company has adopted a localized marketing approach, segmenting the African market into East, Central, West, and North Africa [4]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has undergone significant technological upgrades, transitioning from manual processes to automated systems, which improved product quality and reliability [3][6]. - Tiger Head has developed a comprehensive supply chain system that integrates research, production, quality control, and delivery, enhancing operational efficiency [6][7]. Group 5: Challenges and Adaptations - The company faced challenges in meeting the stringent quality standards of the European and American markets, leading to a comprehensive upgrade of its management and quality control systems [6]. - Tiger Head has successfully navigated the complexities of international trade, adapting its operations to meet diverse market demands [7][8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The company is focusing on emerging markets and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with increased confidence in expanding its market presence [8]. - The global battery market is evolving, with a shift towards high-energy density and long-life batteries, indicating potential growth areas for Tiger Head [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.21% [1] - Sectors such as lithium mining and precious metals are leading in gains, while sectors like CPO and cross-border payments are experiencing declines [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the trend of mining service and equipment companies transitioning towards mining development, driven by high metal prices [2] - The transition models include equity participation, control, and EPC+O models, which are expected to become significant forces in mining development due to the funding and technical constraints faced by small to medium-sized mine owners [2] - Guojin Securities highlights that the investment strategy for the medical device sector in 2026 will focus on overseas expansion and innovation, targeting companies with strong product development capabilities and reduced domestic market price pressures [2] - Key areas of focus include leading digestive endoscope consumables companies, home medical device leaders with strong brand power, and differentiated innovation in cardiovascular intervention products [2] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the photovoltaic sector is expected to see marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships by 2026, with leading companies likely to turn losses into profits, presenting investment opportunities for recovery [3] - The challenges in photovoltaic consumption are prompting the development of a market-oriented domestic electricity market and the growth of adjustable power sources, with energy storage benefiting from both domestic and international market conditions [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，2026年板块投资策略将聚焦在出海和创新两条线，重点关注 海外拓展加速确定性较强、产品创新研发能力领先、国内市场价格压力已逐步出清的细分赛道优质器械 公司。建议关注：1)海外成熟市场拓展领先、国内集采影响逐步见底的消化内镜耗材龙头南微医学 (688029.SH)、2)国内品牌力优秀、可穿戴创新品种及海外市场加速拓展的家用医疗器械龙头鱼跃医疗 (002223.SZ)、3)心血管介入领域产品差异化创新的港股器械公司先健科技(01302)等 国金证券主要观点如下： 回顾2025年：政策支持导向明确，头部企业份额持续提升。 在医保控制费用支出的背景下国内市场院内需求偏弱，大量企业仍处于消化渠道库存压力及价格调整阶 段，带动板块向上走势的核心因素主要来自于特定创新产品以及政策支持。市场整体虽然承压明显，但 进一步推动行业集中度提升，龙头企业依然获得了较为稳定的利润率。 展望2026年：板块投资策略将聚焦在出海和创新。 家用医疗器械：国际化已成为目前国内家用医疗器械上市公司的核心战略，头部公司主要通过并购和海 外产品注册来加速业务出海。2026年预计部分公司海外市场及创新产品逐步进 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the food and beverage sector, with soft drinks and snacks leading the recovery, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][9][10] - The analysis draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, highlighting that successful industries often address demand pain points and have low penetration rates [10][11] - Investment strategies focus on sectors with stabilizing ROA and potential valuation recovery, emphasizing price as the primary selection logic, while volume is secondary [11][12] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - The construction sector is expected to experience a "spring rally" in 2026, supported by historical investment patterns and major national projects [13][14] - The report highlights three core investment themes: major national projects, high-dividend low-valuation state-owned enterprises, and private construction firms leveraging cash flow for new growth areas [14][15] - Infrastructure investment data shows a decline in both narrow and broad infrastructure investment, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector [15][16] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment, despite government efforts to promote high-quality development [18][20] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes maintaining a balance in supply and demand, which is crucial for economic stability [20][22] - Specific data indicates a 31.4% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 26.1% drop in sales revenue, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market [20][21] Group 4: Electronics and Robotics - The report on Changying Precision emphasizes the introduction of employee stock ownership and stock option plans to enhance long-term development confidence and attract core talent [23][24] - The company is positioned as a leader in solder paste printing equipment, with a focus on high-end product demand driven by AI trends [33][34] - New product lines, including dispensing and packaging equipment, are expected to contribute to growth, with significant revenue increases anticipated [34][36] Group 5: Media Industry - The report on Giant Legend highlights the rapid growth of its IPs, particularly the "Zhou Classmate" and "Liu Genghong," which have gained substantial popularity on social media platforms [28][29] - The company is expanding its strategic investments to enhance collaboration with international stars and develop consumer products linked to its IPs [29][30] - Future growth is expected through a diversified approach that integrates emotional value into various products and experiences, positioning the company as a "disseminator of happiness" [30][31] Group 6: Mechanical and Building Materials - The report on Kaige Precision Machine outlines the company's leadership in solder paste printing equipment and its expansion into new product categories driven by AI [33][34] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its new product lines, including flexible automation equipment, which are crucial for enhancing manufacturing efficiency [34][36] - Profit forecasts indicate strong growth potential, with expected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [36]

内容来源：刘润公众号（runliu-pub） 市场的容量有限，企业为了活下去，就只能不断加大竞争力度。 内卷、拼命干、熬夜干，收益还变少，一直卷下去不是办法，那怎么办？ 其中一个答案，或许就是 出海。 今天的出海，相比于之前的出口，发生了很大变化。 2026年，钱从哪里来？ 这个问题，是很多人真正最关心的问题。 今天给大家分享5个关键词： 一、价值链出海 2025，大家过得确实不太容易。 摆在众多企业面前的一个重大问题，就叫做 内需不足。 需求不足，市场的容量就有限。 举个例子， 名创优品。 它的出海，不仅仅是把产品卖到国外去，还是把从产品到品牌、研发、商业模式，这一整条价值链条，全部搬到海外去。 比如，通过和自己的几千万私域用户高频互动，了解用户想要什么、喜欢什么，从而迅速推行。 又比如，在海外直接开店，不断加深用户认知，打造品牌形象。 二、跟随龙头协同出海 随着价值链出海潮的出现，很多行业龙头开始尝试向外走。 但你要知道，向外走并不是简单的在当地建个厂就完了。 想把出海做好，你可能需要整合一层又一层的供应链体系，与你协同合作。 这一点，在走进中国的特斯拉身上就能看到。 从上海临港出发，方圆300公里，集中 ...

【机构：第六批医用耗材国采文件发布，规则细节及报量符合预期】 今日（12.25），沪指录得七连阳，医疗器械板块反弹。全市场费率最低档的医疗器械ETF基金(159797)收涨1.58%，连续第二日走强！资金面上，医疗器械 ETF基金(159797)已连续6日净流入，近10日累计"吸金"超3100万元！ 国金证券认为，报量结果符合预期，主要品种国产化率高。从冠脉药物球囊的报量情况来看，上市公司乐普医疗位居第二，占比16%；山东吉威（蓝帆医疗 子公司）位居第五，占比8%；微创医疗、先瑞达医疗占比相对较少。从外周药物球囊的报量情况来看，先瑞达医疗、归创通桥、心脉医疗前三家国产企业 占据市场71%的份额，国产头部企业报量情况基本符合预期，此次大部分品种由于此前已经历过省级或区域联盟集采，国产化率已相对较高。此外，由于采 用多轮报价，企业中选率大幅提升。 消息面上，2025年12月22日，国家组织高值医用耗材联合采购办公室发布《国家组织药物涂层球囊类、泌尿介入类医用耗材集中带量采购文件(GH-HD2025- 1)》的公告，企业申报材料递交及信息公开将在2026年1月13日进行。本次集中带量采购周期自联盟各地区中选结果实际 ...