| | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 项 目 | | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 | 5-B:汇总价格:内 | | 蒙 | 5220 | +100.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅 锰:FeMn6 | 5S i1 7:内 蒙 | | | 5540 | +20.0 | 元/吨 | | | 锰 矿:M n4 4块 | | | | 43.0 | - | 元/吨 度 | | | 兰 炭:小 料:神 | 木 | | | 800 | -20.0 | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅 铁 （现 | 货-0 | 3期 货） | -298 | +52 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 硅 （现 | 货-0 | 3期 货） | -218 | - 8 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅 | 铁2603-2605 | | 4 0 | - 2 | 元/吨 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices reached a three-year high in the first half of the month, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and market reactions to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's decision slightly exceeded expectations, leading to a moderate increase in the aluminum market [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting in China released positive signals, providing robust support for commodities [1] - Strong performance in silver and copper has positively influenced aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Supply constraints in the northwest have limited shipments, resulting in a decrease in social inventory [1] - Demand shows differentiated performance across consumption areas, with overall trading exhibiting resilience [1] - The sentiment in the market has shifted, maintaining high spot aluminum prices despite seasonal pressures [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - As sentiment cools in the latter half of the month and seasonal factors exert pressure, aluminum prices are expected to adjust to a range of 21,000 to 21,500 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper prices are mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium has led the US to continuously attract non - US copper resources, and the Fed's actions have boosted market risk appetite. - Concerns about the tightness of the ore end persist, and the tightness may be transmitted to the smelting end. High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand. - In the future, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory and the tight ore end will limit the downside space of copper prices. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and the main support is at 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Domestic zinc mines are entering the production - reduction season, and the supply of refined zinc is gradually shifting from loose to tight. The export of zinc ingots has improved the market, and domestic spot zinc ingots remain at a premium. - The LME inventory has been accumulating, but the LME 0 - 3 premium remains high. The Fed's actions have boosted zinc prices. - In the future, the tightness of the ore end may lead to the tightness of zinc ingots. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and the change in refined zinc inventory, with the main support at 23,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has been digested, and there is limited further driving force after the valuation repair. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the nickel price is facing adjustment. - The spot nickel price has declined, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic social inventory pressure has increased. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 114,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has certain support from the supply and cost sides, but the off - season demand limits the upside space. - The nickel ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices have different trends. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, but the demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is limited. - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production reduction and the marginal improvement of demand [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and it is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply within the year will be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, especially in the new - energy - related fields. - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold long positions and consider buying on dips [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, with stable supply growth and peak demand. The inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the cost support has shifted downward. The short - term price may be volatile, and the reference range for the main contract is 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a high - level wide - range shock under the interweaving of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's policies and domestic inventory changes [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has remained high and volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the increase in the price of primary aluminum has increased the cost pressure on recycled aluminum plants. - The demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is restricted by strong costs and weak demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap - aluminum supply, downstream orders, and macro - sentiment [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has weakened under the pressure of cost decline expectations, significant demand decline expectations, and continuous inventory increase. - It is expected that the supply - demand situation in December will remain weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production decreases significantly, it may reach 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it may fall to 7,500 yuan/ton [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has shown a large - amplitude shock. Although the production has decreased, the demand has decreased more, resulting in an oversupply situation and continuous inventory accumulation. - After the registration of the platform company, the price may be strong under the influence of positive news. Pay attention to the substantial progress of capacity storage and production control. The futures price is strongly rising and at a large premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the production - reduction amplitude and price - decline pressure [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price center of lithium carbonate has moved up, and there are more news disturbances in the market. The fundamentals remain in a situation of both supply and demand being strong. - The downstream demand is relatively optimistic, but the sustainability of the improvement in the off - season demand at the end of the year needs to be noted. The social inventory is stably decreasing, but the off - balance - sheet implicit inventory may bring pressure. - In the short term, the market may maintain a strong shock, with the main reference range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,222 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium has decreased by 25 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,650 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium has increased by 30 yuan/ton. - The SMM wet - process copper price is 93,505 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The SMM wet - process copper premium has decreased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.05% from the previous month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume was 282,100 tons, down 15.61% from the previous month. - The import copper concentrate index is - 43.08 dollars/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 763,900 tons, up 1.83% from the previous week. - The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate is 64.54%, down 1.87% from the previous week. The recycled copper rod - making start - up rate is 9.15%, down 9.14% from the previous week [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,700 yuan/ton, up 2.55% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) price is 23,620 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the previous day. - The import loss is - 4,588 yuan/ton, down 320.15 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.39, down 0.06 from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc output was 595,200 tons, down 3.56% from the previous month. In October, the refined zinc import volume was 18,800 tons, down 16.94% from the previous month, and the export volume was 8,500 tons, up 243.79% from the previous month. - The galvanized start - up rate is 58.39%, up 0.19% from the previous week. The die - cast zinc alloy start - up rate is 49.56%, down 1.52% from the previous week. The zinc oxide start - up rate is 55.67%, down 0.78% from the previous week [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 118,200 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day. - The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 5,200 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day. The 1 imported nickel price is 116,000 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume is 9,741 tons, down 65.66% from the previous month. - The SHFE inventory is 44,677 tons, up 5.10% from the previous week. The social inventory is 58,970 tons, up 3.73% from the previous week. The bonded - area inventory is 2,200 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis difference between futures and spot is 405 yuan/ton, down 13.83% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) is 1.787 million tons, down 0.72% from the previous month. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (Qinglong) is 423,500 tons, up 0.36% from the previous month. - The stainless - steel import volume is 124,100 tons, up 3.18% from the previous month. The export volume is 358,100 tons, down 14.43% from the previous month. The net export volume is 234,000 tons, down 21.54% from the previous month [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price is 329,900 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 200.00% from the previous day. - The Yangtze River 1 tin price is 330,400 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 17 dollars/ton, down 22.73% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import volume was 11,632 tons, up 33.49% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin output in October was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% from the previous month. - The refined tin import volume in October was 526 tons, down 58.55% from the previous month. The export volume was 1,480 tons, down 15.33% from the previous month [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 22,050 yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. - The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 1,977 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, up 0.01 from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina output was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.44% from the previous month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6366 million tons, down 2.82% from the previous month. The overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.4992 million tons, down 3.50% from the previous month [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM East - China ADC12, South - China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 prices are all 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 682,000 tons, up 5.74% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 302,700 tons, up 5.84% from the previous month. The scrap - aluminum output was 876,000 tons, up 11.45% from the previous month [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of East - China SI4210 industrial silicon is also unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530 is 765 yuan/ton, down 16.39% from the previous day. The basis of SI4210 is 472 yuan/ton, down 26.55% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 401,700 tons, down 11.17% from the previous month. The Xinjiang industrial silicon output is 237,600 tons, up 0.83% from the previous month. The Yunnan and Sichuan industrial silicon outputs have decreased significantly [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52,300 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of N - type silicon is - 4,890 yuan, down 41.13% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon output in the week is 25,100 tons, down 2.71% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output is 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume is 14,000 tons, up 11.96% from the previous month, and the export volume is 15,000 tons, down 27.99% from the previous month [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1.10% from the previous day. - The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 83,030 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 77,530 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate output was 53,500 tons, up 3.35% from the previous month. The battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 70,300 tons, up 2.84% from the previous month. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate output was 25,050 tons, up 4.81% from the previous month. - In November, the lithium carbonate demand was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% from the previous month

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with the Federal Reserve's easing policies being a key driver. Despite uncertainties in future interest rate cuts, a liquidity-rich environment is expected to support rising commodity prices, similar to the market performance from 2019 to 2021 [1][5] - Concerns regarding AI investments and interest rate hikes in Japan have emerged, but liquidity easing reduces de-leveraging risks, making the likelihood of a bubble burst low in the short term. If Japan's interest rates exceed expectations, it may create downward pressure, but any pullback could present a good investment opportunity due to supply-demand imbalances and demand recovery expected by 2026 [1][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold is not advisable to short due to geopolitical factors, weakening of the dollar credit system, and increased central bank purchases. Historically, gold experiences two phases of price increases during easing cycles, and it is expected to rise post-RMP implementation [1][7] - Silver may face short-term pullback pressure but is expected to maintain a long-term upward cycle due to supply shortages and its industrial properties. The market for silver has been in a state of shortage for the past few years, and its investment demand is likely to increase during economic recovery [1][8] Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 by 2026, driven by liquidity easing and rising inflation. Companies like Lingbao Gold, through acquisitions, are expected to see their valuations rise to 15-20 times [1][9] - The copper market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with low inventories. High copper prices are suppressing demand, but liquidity easing is expected to mitigate negative impacts. The copper price is projected to be between $11,000 and $12,000 in the first half of 2026, making valuations of related A-share and H-share companies attractive [2][11] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market shows a favorable supply-demand balance, with profit margins exceeding 5,500 yuan per ton. The current valuation levels are considered attractive for investment, especially as the U.S. easing cycle lowers dividend yield requirements [4][12] Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a slight shortage in 2025, with a total supply of around 1.6 million tons. In 2026, a slight surplus is anticipated, with prices sensitive to rapid increases in supply. The price may reach between 90,000 to 100,000 yuan, but rapid price increases could stimulate supply and create pressure [13][14] Small Metals: Tungsten and Cobalt - Tungsten and cobalt are expected to maintain a trend of price increases due to ongoing shortages. Tungsten's price is unlikely to drop significantly due to its importance in technology and military applications, while cobalt prices may rise due to export quota issues from the Democratic Republic of Congo [15] Copper Foil and Aluminum Foil Processing Fees - Recent surveys indicate that processing fees for copper and aluminum foils in lithium battery materials have bottomed out and are beginning to recover. This sector is highlighted as an important area for investors, with overall supply-demand dynamics remaining balanced [16][17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with the Federal Reserve's easing policies being a key driver. Despite uncertainties in future interest rate cuts, a liquidity-rich environment is expected to support rising commodity prices, similar to the market performance from 2019 to 2021 [1][5] - Concerns regarding AI investments and interest rate hikes in Japan have emerged, but liquidity easing reduces de-leveraging risks, making the likelihood of a bubble burst low in the short term. If Japan's interest rates exceed expectations, it may create downward pressure, but any pullback could present a good investment opportunity due to supply-demand imbalances and demand recovery anticipated by 2026 [1][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold is not advisable to short due to geopolitical factors, weakening of the dollar credit system, and increased central bank purchases. Historically, gold tends to experience two phases of price increases during easing cycles, and it is expected to rise post-RMP implementation [1][7] - Silver may face short-term pullback pressure but is expected to maintain a long-term upward cycle due to supply shortages and its industrial properties. The market has shown a consistent shortfall in silver supply over the past few years [1][8] Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 by 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and rising inflation. Companies like Lingbao Gold, through acquisitions, are expected to see their valuations rise to 15-20 times [1][9] - The copper market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with low inventories. High copper prices are suppressing demand, but liquidity easing is expected to mitigate negative impacts, making any price corrections a good buying opportunity. The copper price is projected to be between $11,000 and $12,000 in the first half of 2026, with many A-share and H-share companies showing attractive valuations [2][11] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is currently in a favorable supply-demand balance, with profit margins exceeding 5,500 yuan per ton. The U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to lower dividend yield requirements, making aluminum an attractive investment due to its cyclical and dividend growth attributes [4][12] Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a slight shortage in 2025, with a projected small surplus in 2026. The price sensitivity is high, and rapid price increases may stimulate supply. The overall economic environment and liquidity easing may push lithium prices higher in the first half of 2026 [4][14] Minor Metals: Tungsten and Cobalt - Tungsten and cobalt are expected to remain in a state of continuous shortage, with prices likely to trend upwards. Tungsten's significance in technology and military applications makes it less likely to drop to previous low levels, while cobalt's price is influenced by export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [15] Copper and Aluminum Foil Processing Fees - Recent surveys indicate that processing fees for copper and aluminum foils in lithium battery materials have bottomed out and are beginning to recover. This sector is highlighted as an important area for investors, with overall supply-demand dynamics remaining balanced [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the non-ferrous metals industry and its various segments.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the current surge in industrial metal prices driven by macro sentiment is about to retreat, leading to significant market differentiation, with aluminum, lithium, and iron ore expected to see price declines by 18%, 23%, and 17% respectively by the end of 2026, while copper remains strong due to supply constraints and robust structural demand from sectors like power grids and AI [1][3]. Copper - Copper is viewed as the only metal with a positive outlook, with a price floor around $10,000 per ton due to structural demand from power grid upgrades and AI infrastructure [3][5]. - Supply constraints are highlighted, with accidents at major copper mines revealing challenges in old mines and complex geology, limiting supply growth and supporting copper prices [6]. - Strong demand is driven by strategic investments in power infrastructure, with expectations that over 60% of copper demand growth will come from this sector by 2030 [7]. - A short-term catalyst includes potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, leading to preemptive stockpiling by traders, tightening supply outside the U.S. [7]. - Despite recent price spikes, the increase is based on future expectations rather than current fundamentals, with predictions of a 500,000-ton surplus in 2025, narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026 [7]. Aluminum - The aluminum market faces a dual challenge of oversupply and demand risks, with Goldman Sachs recommending a short position [8]. - A supply surge is anticipated due to high prices stimulating new capacity, particularly from Indonesia and India, leading to a projected 1.1 million ton surplus by 2026 [8]. - Demand is threatened by substitution risks, as manufacturers shift from aluminum to cheaper steel in automotive production due to rising aluminum prices [8]. - Price forecasts suggest LME aluminum prices could drop to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 [9]. Lithium - Recent rebounds in lithium prices are viewed as temporary, with Goldman Sachs predicting a return to a surplus by the second half of 2026 [10]. - Short-term tightness is attributed to strong demand for energy storage systems and supply disruptions in China [10]. - By the end of 2026, lithium prices are expected to decline by 23% to around $9,500 per ton [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market's fundamentals have deteriorated significantly, with a bleak outlook for 2026 [11]. - A projected increase of 51 million tons in Chinese port inventories is expected by 2026, alongside supply increases from Australia, Brazil, and Guinea [12][13]. - Global seaborne iron ore demand is anticipated to decline by 1%, with Chinese steel production expected to drop by 2% [12]. - Price predictions indicate that iron ore prices could fall to $88 per ton by the end of 2026 [14]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a strategy of "distilling the truth" for investors in 2026, advocating for long positions in copper due to its structural shortage while avoiding or shorting aluminum, lithium, and iron ore, which face significant supply pressures [14].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21430，基差-180，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌8439吨至115277吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 逻辑： 利空： 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 上海 昨日上 | 中间价 中间价 70770 | 涨跌 涨跌 -375 | 库存 | 类型 类型 仓单 仓单 ...

有色金属：短期宏观情绪影响强于基本面 20251130 摘要 有色金属价格受工业金属属性和流动性影响显著，近期金属、股债及加 密货币普涨反映市场流动性预期变化。未来两个月，有色金属价格预计 维持震荡，春节前后补库行情或成上涨催化剂，美联储降息政策不确定 性增加市场风险，建议避免追涨杀跌，逐步配置低估值个股。 白银因其工业属性和流动性敏感度，在降息周期中表现突出，被视为 2026 年最被看好的品种之一。铜价虽突破 11,000 美元，但高价抑制 下游需求。交易结构显示标准品紧缺易引发阶段性行情，基本面仍处供 需双弱平衡，建议关注 11,000 美元支撑位，逐步配置低估值个股。 黄金上周突破 4,200 美元，涨幅相对克制，隐含波动率高表明资金博弈 偏多。预计未来两月黄金或平台整理，复刻 4-5 月底部抬升行情，底部 整理平台应在 4,000 美元以上。波动率下降后，可配置具有确定成长性 的黄金矿业公司。 电解铝需求自 9 月起光伏需求有所回落，行业进入调整期，需关注基本 面及下游需求恢复情况。电解铝和铝棒需求保持稳定，库存略有减少， 储能和两轮车为新的增长点，预计供需格局将持续至明年。吨铝毛利率 维持高位，市场 ...