| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3160 | 3170 | -10 | -4 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | 26 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 86 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3050 | 3061 | -11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3131 | 3139 | -8 | 29 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3164 | 3171 | -7 | -4 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3280 | -30 | -19 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | -3d | | | 热卷现货( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has recovered, leading to a rebound in the market. In the short term, a volatile trading approach should be adopted. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, causing a rebound in the commodity market, especially in iron ore. However, due to the deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products, the export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments also indicates a marginal weakening of the iron ore fundamentals. The 2509 contract is under pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel, with an expected operating range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The macro - sentiment recovery has led to a market rebound. The easing of Trump's tariff policy has increased market risk appetite, resulting in a significant rebound in iron ore. The deterioration of international trade and stricter export investigations of Chinese steel products may suppress the increase in hot metal production. The seasonal increase in overseas ore shipments indicates a marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. The 09 contract faces pressure from increased supply and weakening exports of finished steel. The 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 680 - 740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and continue to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2509 contract opened lower and then strengthened, closing at 707 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 3.06%. The trading volume was 597,300 lots, and the open interest was 481,900 lots, a decrease of 6,907 lots. The top 20 long positions in the 2509 contract increased by 2,016 lots to 299,669 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 362 lots to 313,628 lots [3][5]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 31 to April 6, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.9219 billion tons, a decrease of 265,900 tons compared with the previous period. The Australian shipment volume was 1.6592 billion tons, a decrease of 327,200 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4531 billion tons, a decrease of 73,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 733,900 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.3591 billion tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1887 billion tons, a decrease of 54,900 tons. As of April 4, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 126 domestic mines was 41,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.14%, with limited changes compared with the previous period. Overseas ore shipments have decreased slightly, mainly from Australia, and are at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has decreased slightly from a high level and is at a moderately low level, with a possible increase in the future. The iron ore price remains above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, having limited impact on non - mainstream mine shipments. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a loose situation. On the demand side, the hot metal production has continued to increase slightly, but the concentrated resumption of production has passed, and the growth rate may slow down. On the inventory side, the port inventory has fluctuated slightly, and steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory restricts the upside space of the ore price [6].