1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there was no significant increase in market purchases after the zinc price weakened last week. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand. However, the macro - level risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and with the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the existence of overseas structural risks, Shanghai zinc has stabilized. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price dropped 2.02% to 21,780 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price fell 2.04% to 21,815 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined 1.41% to 2,942.5 dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Raw Material End - As of October 17, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 380,600 tons, an increase of 41,300 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 dollars/dry ton [25]. - As of October 16, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,980 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a 6.81% month - on - month decrease and a 30.60% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a 43.06% cumulative year - on - year increase [31]. - Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. On October 17, 2025, domestic TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 118.75 dollars/dry ton [35]. 3.3 Supply End - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has declined but remains considerable. As of October 16, the production profit was - 630 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons [41]. - The import profit window is closed. As of October 17, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,529.70 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a decrease of 31,500 tons year - on - year [44]. 3.4 Demand End 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.22 percentage points to 58.05%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased [52][55]. 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 1.96% and 1.92% respectively. The operating rate increased by 8.12 percentage points to 54.63%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [64][67][71]. 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.47% to 21,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 57.13%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased slightly [77][80][83]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,100 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [91]. - As of October 17, the SHFE inventory was 109,600 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 38,000 tons, showing a continuous decline [94]. 3.6 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From August 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus, with 51,000 tons in August, 28,000 tons in July, and 23,900 tons in June [100].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][3] - The fundamentals of aluminum ingots are operating steadily, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, showing a relatively strong trend [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region, the shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown period [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingot - In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to bring a further increase in aluminum ingot production, with the daily average output expected to rise further. The spot price of alumina maintains a weak operation, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline month - on - month [3] - This week, the average operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the second half of the month and approach the annual high. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises is stable at 68%, but it is expected to gradually decline. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64% and is expected to continue its weak and stable performance in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5% and is expected to be stable but weak in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3% but may decline due to weak terminal demand. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6% and is expected to continue to decline slightly in October [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Overseas macro - interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The later focus is on the trends of inventory and consumption. The later focus also includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at mines, and the release of consumption [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is geopolitical risk. The initial agreement on the Gaza ceasefire has significantly reduced geopolitical risk, increasing the possibility of mainstream shipping companies resuming Red Sea voyages, which is negative for market sentiment and will also put pressure on freight rates from the supply side in the long term. The approaching time for the US to impose port fees on Chinese ships and the US's announcement of a 100% tariff on China are both negative for the European index futures price from a macro - sentiment perspective. However, Trump's subsequent remarks on social media leave some room for improvement, presenting certain positive factors. In the short term, futures prices, especially far - month futures prices, are more likely to continue to fluctuate slightly downward or return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and the development of Sino - US relations [1]. - The current spot cabin quotes for the European route and the SCFI European route have stopped falling and rebounded, enhancing the short - term valuation of near - month futures prices. However, geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment have certain negative impacts, and the possibility of a rebound from low levels should be guarded against [2]. - Uncertainties remain in the Middle East situation. If the Gaza ceasefire process shows significant setbacks or Red Sea voyages are truly resumed, it will have a relatively significant impact on futures prices. In the first eight months of this year, the peak - season characteristics of the European container shipping market were relatively vague. For the following months, the demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the demand support during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [5]. - The container shipping index (European route) futures (EC) prices showed a wide - range volatile trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment this week. Technically, the short - term moving average crossed below the long - term moving average again, indicating a short - term downward expectation. Recently, there has been no significant change in the positions of the main players in the container shipping market, but the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased, indicating that the market sentiment remains relatively bearish [31]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - Geopolitical risk is the core factor affecting the EC price trend. The Gaza ceasefire agreement reduces risk, increasing the possibility of Red Sea resumption and pressuring freight rates. Sino - US trade frictions have both negative and positive impacts on futures prices [1]. - The current situation of European route spot cabin quotes and SCFI European route is positive for near - month futures price valuation, but geopolitical and macro - factors have negative impacts [2]. - Uncertainties in the Middle East and the demand characteristics of the European container shipping market are important factors affecting futures prices [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Traders can try the 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [11][40]. - **Trend Judgment**: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1450 - 1500, and the pressure level is in the range of 1700 - 1750. The overall strategy can be relatively bearish, and short - term intraday trading is recommended due to geopolitical and macro uncertainties. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines in the spot - futures (basis) strategy [11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Cargo Space Management**: For those with full cargo space or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [11]. - **Cost Management**: To prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 4.53% to 1540.00 dollars/FEU, the CICFI decreased by 0.01% to 647.22 points, the SCFI increased by 4.12% to 1160.42 points, the NCFI increased by 11.5% to 818.97 points, the CCFI decreased by 6.68% to 1014.78 points, and the CFFI decreased by 4.99% to 2399.00 points [10]. - The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60% to 1046.50 points, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82% to 876.82 points, the SCFI European route increased by 9.99% to 1068 dollars/TEU, the SCFI US - West route increased by 0.55% to 1468 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI US - East route increased by 2.81% to 2452 dollars/FEU [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US stock futures rebounded on the evening of October 12. Trump softened his tone on Sino - US relations. CMA CGM announced a price increase for the Asia - to - Nordic route starting from November 1. The SCFI European route stopped falling and rebounded [25]. - **Negative Information**: Maersk may resume Red Sea voyages. China will impose special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. Trump announced a 100% tariff on China and new export controls on key software products on October 10 [26][27][28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's export trade situation [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Flow**: The container shipping index (European route) futures prices showed a wide - range volatile trend. Technically, there is a short - term downward expectation. Market sentiment is relatively bearish as the net short positions of profitable players and foreign investors have slightly increased [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The SCFIS European route continued to decline with a slightly narrowing decline. The basis of the main contract EC2510 decreased compared with the previous week. As the delivery month approaches, the basis has fallen to a relatively reasonable range. Affected by the contract change, the basis rate has significantly decreased, and caution is needed for hedging at the current level [35]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - month contracts EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, and EC2512 - 2602 were - 449.9 points, - 216.9 points, and 233.0 points respectively. The decline in each month's contract price was mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - factors, with a greater negative impact on far - month contracts. Traders can try the 10 - 12 contract positive spread arbitrage [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of the year, mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM Group had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some shipping companies such as ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies still achieved profitability, indicating that the current market is not bad. For the second half of the year, liner companies believe that uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the average price of Brent and SC is expected to decline. It is advisable to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [2]. - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and black series, as well as energy and chemical products and agricultural products, different trends and investment suggestions are presented according to their respective supply - demand situations, policies, and geopolitical factors [4][5][6] and so on. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The overnight international oil price rebounded. The mid - term bearish trend persists, with the estimated average price of Brent dropping from $68/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel, and SC from 500 yuan/barrel to around 465 yuan/barrel. Hold the combined strategy of high - level short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU mainly follow the crude oil trend. Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Crude oil leads the decline in oil futures, and LPG slightly follows. Supply - demand shows marginal improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [22]. - **Asphalt**: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The overall inventory decreased. The futures price oscillates with support below [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. The upward trend remains, but short - term fluctuations may increase [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated. Domestic spot copper prices were reported, and it is advisable to wait and see due to concerns about consumption indicators and inventory [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Downstream start - up increased seasonally, but inventory has not yet shown a turning point. Observe whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity reached a record high, and the inventory continued to rise. The price is expected to run weakly, with support at around 2800 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: The export expectation strengthened, and the import loss narrowed. Consumption was weak in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased. The lower support is at 21,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The profit of recycled lead repaired, and the supply - demand was weak. The price is expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly and is about to start a downward trend. Stainless steel has cost support due to pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, London tin rose at the key support level. The price is difficult to show a trend in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply decreased from the high level, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was partially implemented. The price is relatively firm, and it is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated. With pre - holiday stocking sentiment and sufficient carbon supply, the price is relatively firm, and the futures price shows a premium. It is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. With increasing demand and production, it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The demand was okay, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [18]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillated weakly at night. The demand for rebar improved slightly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Chemical Products - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price oscillated. The policy - driven capacity clearance is in progress. The short - term price may correct, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity of low - level repair after the correction [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [13]. - **Urea**: The main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The supply exceeded demand, and the price may continue to run at a low level in the short term [23]. - **Methanol**: The night - session price stabilized and rebounded. The port demand strengthened, but high inventory and accumulation expectations restricted the upward space. Pay attention to overseas gas - limiting situations [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price stopped falling and rebounded. The actual fundamentals were okay, but the import expectation and poor downstream profits dragged down the market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase. The supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the price trend is weak [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly due to high supply and inventory pressure. Caustic soda futures price dropped sharply, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakened, and the PTA processing margin and basis improved slightly. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory relief [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to fall. The actual supply pressure was not large, but the expectation was weak. Pay attention to inventory and new - device variables [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted, and the processing margin continued to repair. The bottle - grade chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [31]. - **Glass**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price fell from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see before the festival and look for low - long opportunities near the cost [32]. - **20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The demand was stable. The supply of natural rubber increased while the inventory decreased, and that of synthetic rubber decreased with inventory decline. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The price fell. Look for high - short opportunities and be cautious near the cost [34]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The short - term market is bearish due to Argentina's export policy. Wait and see in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The supply of domestic soybeans in Q1 2026 is expected to be sufficient. Domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The US soybean market may be under pressure [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil is expected to be stronger than other oils. Rapeseed meal demand is expected to be average [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean price reached a new low. The supply is expected to be good. The price of US soybeans may face downward pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated weakly at night. The new - season output is expected to be good, but the price may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [39]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs reached a new low. The supply pressure is large, and the price is bearish [40]. - **Egg**: The near - term contract should focus on short - position exit, and the far - term contract in H1 2026 can be considered for long - position layout [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded and oscillated. The domestic new - cotton acquisition is about to start. The Xinjiang cotton output is likely to be high. Wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillated. The domestic market focuses on the next - season output estimate, and the Guangxi output expectation is relatively good [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillated. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Wait and see for now [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price oscillated at a low level. The inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Wait and see or trade in the range [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and moderately allocate to cyclical sectors. Also, seize the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds fell across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 23, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash declined for two consecutive trading days. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 2.60%, with a daily reduction of 4,582 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week-on-week decline. Although the factory inventory continued to decline to 1.7556 million tons, 41,900 tons less than last Thursday, it remained at a high level. The total shipment volume reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week-on-week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39-percentage-point week-on-week increase [8]. - **Macro Situation**: There was no new policy information to alleviate the intense competition in the soda ash industry, and the possibility of relevant policy implementation in the short term was relatively low. - **Outlook**: The contradiction in the soda ash industry was alleviated in the short term, but the inventory was still high, and the fundamental driving force was insufficient. The supply was still in excess, and the pattern of oversupply in the market had not been effectively improved. The market price was expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The overall glass production showed a slight upward trend but remained in the bottom range. The spot price rebounded, improving the industry's profit. The deep - processing orders remained basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand. The inventory started to accumulate again. For float glass, the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved compared to last year, and the cost side provided some support, but the demand side was weak. The photovoltaic glass market experienced a significant price increase, driven by strong demand [9][10]. - **Macro Situation**: With the boost of peak - season demand and the strengthening of anti - intense competition expectations. - **Outlook**: The main futures contract of glass was expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10] Group 3: Data Overview - The report provided multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts of soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [14][15][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short - term, but the supply is still in surplus, and the market pattern of oversupply has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and strengthen. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. - It is expected that the main contract of glass futures will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 22, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract decreased after rising, with a closing price of 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 1.44%, and an increase in positions of 38,105 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Factory inventories decreased to 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons from last Thursday. Total shipments reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week - on - week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39 - percentage - point increase [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed a slight increase but remained at a low level. Spot prices rebounded, and industry profits improved. Deep - processing orders remained stable, mainly for rigid demand, and inventories started to accumulate again. The supply pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost has certain support, but the demand is weak. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The main contract of glass futures is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventories, central China heavy soda market prices, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][14][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]