Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent strategy of positioning for a long position in gold at lower levels has yielded positive results, with gold prices successfully rebounding after reaching entry points [1] - The market sentiment has been influenced by dovish signals from Powell, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has driven gold prices upward [7] - The technical analysis shows that on the daily chart, gold is trading above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of a potential bullish crossover in the MACD indicator, indicating a clear demand for a rebound [8] Group 2 - For aggressive traders, it is suggested to enter long positions near the support level of $3300 per ounce, while more conservative traders should consider entering around $3270-$3280 per ounce [8] - The futures market for gold is influenced by international gold prices and exchange rates, with support at 770 RMB per gram and resistance around 775 RMB per gram, indicating a range for trading [8] - Overall market conditions are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for stop-loss and take-profit strategies in trading [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, recent macro - sentiment has been volatile, and the industry has weak supply and demand, but the downside of copper prices is limited [1]. - For aluminum, recent macro - sentiment is unstable, domestic downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, inventory keeps rising, and aluminum prices may be weak [1]. - For zinc, the zinc social inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but considering the squeeze risk in LME zinc, short - selling should be cautious [1]. - For nickel, domestic economic data declined in July, and short - term nickel prices fluctuate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and selling at high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper futures price is 9705.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.05% change, and the spot price is 9621.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.3% change. SHFE copper futures price is 78790 dollars/ton with a - 0.52% change, and the spot price is 78640 dollars/ton with a - 0.32% change [1]. - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory is 156350 tons with a 0.77% change, and the SHFE copper futures inventory is 86361 tons with a 5.4% change [1]. - **Analysis**: Macro - wise, waiting for the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting", Powell's hawkish stance is expected to change little. Industrially, LME copper spot premium widens, import increases, and downstream demand is in the off - season with lower copper product开工率 [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum futures price is 1932 dollars/ton with a 0.36% change, and the spot price is 2567.5 dollars/ton with a - 0.6% change. SHFE aluminum futures price is 20500 dollars/ton with a - 0.63% change, and the spot price is 20535 dollars/ton with a - 0.05% change [1]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum futures inventory is 479525 tons with a 0.00% change, and the SHFE aluminum futures inventory is 120653 tons with a 6.2% change [1]. - **Analysis**: Macro - wise, same as copper. Industrially, aluminum prices are high, consumption recovery is weak in the off - season, supply is sufficient, inventory keeps rising, and the spot turns to a discount [1]. Zinc - **Price**: LME zinc futures price is 2764.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.04% change, and the spot price is 2758 dollars/ton with a - 0.54% change. SHFE zinc futures price is 22150 dollars/ton with a - 0.14% change, and the spot price is 22265 dollars/ton with a 0.27% change [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc futures inventory is 71250 tons with a - 1.32% change, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory is 76803 tons with a 16.51% change [1]. - **Analysis**: Macro - wise, there are both positive and negative factors, and the expected September Fed rate cut supports the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, zinc production is recovering, demand is in the off - season but has resilience, social inventory is rising, and LME zinc inventory is decreasing with a squeeze risk [1]. Nickel - **Price**: LME nickel futures price is 14885 dollars/ton with a - 0.1% change, and the spot price is 15060 dollars/ton with a - 0.1% change. SHFE nickel futures price is 121170 dollars/ton with a - 0.71% change, and the spot price is 119930 dollars/ton with a - 0.33% change [1]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel futures inventory is 209346 tons with a 0.01% change, and the SHFE nickel futures inventory is 26962 tons [1]. - **Analysis**: Domestic economic data declined in July, macro - sentiment cools slightly. Pure nickel supply increases, social inventory rises, global nickel inventory is high, supply from Indonesia is stable, and demand is weak with an oversupply of primary nickel [1]. Tin - **Price**: LME tin futures price is 33995 dollars/ton with a 0.13% change, and the spot price is 33840 dollars/ton with a 0.36% change. SHFE tin futures price is 267500 dollars/ton with a 0.49% change, and the spot price is 267840 dollars/ton with a - 0.09% change [1]. - **Inventory**: LME tin futures inventory is 1715 tons with a 5.21% change, and the SHFE tin futures inventory is 7792 tons with a - 0.17% change [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flow. It also provides updates on crop conditions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and regulatory developments. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions. CNF quotes and relevant information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US soybean - producing states will have below - normal temperatures and mostly near - to above - median precipitation from August 24th to 28th. Cool and dry weather is expected in the US Midwest in late August, with a 20 - 40 mm rain deficit in 10 - 15 days, and a possible warm and moderately rainy pattern in early September [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to stay above 4300 ringgit. Pro Farmer estimates soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. USDA reports soybean exports, and the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area may increase by 1.2% - 2.9%. Brazilian 8 - month soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to rise. A Brazilian regulatory body plans to investigate the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". EU 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year. Australian rapeseed exports have declined, and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped [7][9][12]. 国内供需 - On August 19th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 170% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill startup rate dropped slightly. China's refined edible vegetable oil production in July increased by 4.0% year - on - year. National soybean oil port inventory increased. China's feed production in July decreased slightly from the previous month but increased by 5.95% year - on - year. Agricultural product prices showed some changes [13][14]. 04 Macro要闻 国际要闻 - US retail sales, new home construction, and API crude oil inventory data are reported. The euro - zone's current account balance increased. Malaysia's economic growth may slow due to US tariffs [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on August 19th. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's fiscal revenue from January to July increased slightly year - on - year, and securities transaction stamp duty increased significantly [17]. 05资金流向 - On August 19th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 157.57 billion yuan, with 27.53 billion yuan from commodity futures and 130.04 billion yuan from stock - index futures. Agricultural product futures had a net inflow, while other sectors had net outflows [19][20]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, particularly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][3][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of August 20, spot gold is trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having dropped 0.5% to close at $3315.45 on the previous day, reaching a low of $3314.80, close to the 100-day moving average support level of $3311.15 [1]. - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a 0.15% increase in the US dollar index, which rose to 98.27, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [5]. - UBS has raised its gold price target to $3600 by March 2026, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US, a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand, suggesting that the current drop in gold prices may be temporary [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key driver of gold price volatility, with traders estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which typically benefits gold due to lower opportunity costs [3]. - Market expectations are uncertain regarding Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, with concerns that he may downplay the likelihood of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and exerting downward pressure on gold [3][10]. - The upcoming release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated to provide insights into the US economic outlook, which could further influence gold prices depending on the Fed's hawkish or dovish stance [3][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are also influencing gold's safe-haven appeal, with President Trump expressing hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could diminish gold's attractiveness as a safe asset if peace negotiations progress [6]. - However, uncertainties surrounding the willingness of parties to reach an agreement may continue to support gold prices, as any breakdown in negotiations could reignite risk aversion among investors [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - Recent macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with July housing starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating a cautious outlook among builders [7]. - The yield curve's bear steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [8]. - Stock market performance, particularly the decline in tech stocks like Nvidia by 3.5%, is also affecting gold sentiment, as investors hedge against potential hawkish signals from the Fed [8].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - The U.S. housing market data showed mixed results, with July single-family home starts increasing by 5.2% to 1.428 million units, driven by apartment project growth, while building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating low builder confidence [2] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the two-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 3.754%, the ten-year down by 3.7 basis points to 4.302%, and the thirty-year down by 4 basis points to 4.902%, reflecting rising inflation expectations which are unfavorable for gold [2] - The stock market saw the Nasdaq index drop by 1.46%, influenced by concerns over tech stocks like Nvidia, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.59% and the Dow Jones remained flat, indicating cautious consumer sentiment and uncertainty regarding tariffs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which would typically lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Market uncertainty surrounds Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, with concerns that he may downplay the prospect of a September rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] - The release of the July Fed meeting minutes is anticipated, which may provide insights into the economic outlook and influence gold prices depending on whether a hawkish or dovish stance is reinforced [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump expressed hope for an end to the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that U.S. support could help ensure Ukraine's security, which could improve global risk sentiment and reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - However, uncertainty remains as Trump acknowledged that Putin may be unwilling to reach an agreement, which could sustain support for gold [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices have entered a short-term corrective phase after a significant drop, with a strong bearish trend continuing as evidenced by four consecutive bearish candles [6] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3328/3329 and 3345/3346, while support is noted at 3309 and 3268, indicating a bearish outlook for short-term trading strategies [6][8] - The four-hour chart confirms a continuation of the bearish trend, with a focus on selling at higher levels, particularly below the previous high of 3345/3346 [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month macro - data showed a weakening pattern in both supply and demand, affected by multiple factors such as demand front - loading from stable growth, policy shift to structural adjustment, downward Kitchin cycle, and weather. Although the current situation doesn't impact the full - year macro - expectation due to the 5.3% H1 real GDP growth, a lack of policy support in stable growth, especially in the real estate sector, may lead to a pessimistic economic outlook [8]. - PTA demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts still suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Polyester's operating rate has been revised up, and the supply side has remained stable recently [9][10]. - PVC is in a weak trend. The newly announced anti - dumping duties in India will affect China's PVC export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is advisable to take a bearish stance and consider the opportunity of going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: PPI exceeding expectations has dampened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, causing silver to decline slightly. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [14][18][20]. - **Copper**: Lacking driving forces, the price fluctuation range has narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [14][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation has become more obvious. The trend strength is - 1 [14][25][27]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory has supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [14][28][29]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [14][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to converge, alumina shows a small sideways increase, and cast aluminum alloy is gradually showing off - season pressure. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's fundamentals oscillate within a narrow range, and one should be vigilant against news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [14][38][42]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances occur repeatedly, and it shows a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 1 [14][43][45]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has strong market sentiment, with amplified price fluctuations. Polysilicon has more news - related disturbances this week. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [14][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend strength is 1 [14][51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [14][54][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: The sector sentiment is weak, and they oscillate weakly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese are both 0 [14][59][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strengths of coke and coking coal are both 0 [14][64][66]. Others - **PTA**: Demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the peak - season impact on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly [9][10]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak trend. The Indian anti - dumping duties affect export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [11]. - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 118.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 13, with a total bid amount of 118.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 118.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains in a comfortable state, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly rising and hovering around 1.31% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remain abundant at around 1.3% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.34% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, remaining stable compared to the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a slight increase: 30-year main contract up 0.10%, 10-year up 0.02%, 5-year up 0.05%, and 2-year up 0.03% [13] Group 5: Credit Data - As of the end of July, the broad money (M2) balance in China is 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%; the narrow money (M1) balance is 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) is 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [13] - In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and RMB deposits by 18.44 trillion yuan [13] - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first seven months is 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13] Group 6: Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance indicated that after the expiration of two loan interest subsidy policies, an evaluation will be conducted to consider extending the policy duration or expanding the support scope [14] - The financial director emphasized that personal consumption loan subsidies are intended for reasonable borrowing needs and genuine consumption behavior [14] Group 7: Global Macro Events - The US White House announced more details about the upcoming "Trump-Putin" meeting, which will be held in a one-on-one format [16] - Japan's chief negotiator stated that if Trump issues an executive order regarding the US-Japan trade agreement by mid-September, the situation would be favorable [16]