Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint This week (from September 1st to 5th), the funds rate showed a divergence, with large - bank financing supply increasing on a daily average basis, and funds increasing leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with the net buying volume lower than last week. Funds mainly increased their holdings of 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds, insurers increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds over 15Y, rural commercial banks turned to slightly increase their holdings, securities firms increased their positions in 3 - 7Y interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought interest - rate bonds within 5Y [4]. Summary by Section 1. Money and Fundamentals - **Open - market operations**: A total of 2273.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1068.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and on Friday, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were both issued and matured. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 1204.7 billion yuan [7][10]. - **Funds price**: As of September 5th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.36%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, with changes of - 5.75BP, - 6.05BP, - 1.32BP, and - 7.86BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 15%, 7%, 12%, and 2% historical percentiles respectively [7][13]. - **Large - bank financing supply**: From September 1st to 5th, the total large - bank financing supply was 20.82 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily supply of 4.6 trillion yuan and an average daily supply of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][16]. - **Pledged - repo trading volume**: The pledged - repo trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.31 trillion yuan and a maximum daily volume of 7.95 trillion yuan, a 3.42% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repo trading increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a maximum daily proportion of 90.2%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 88.6% percentile as of September 5th [7][18]. 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing of certificates of deposit**: This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount turned positive. The total issuance was 581.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.48 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 330.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 464.37 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 251.65 billion yuan, an increase of 499.96 billion yuan from the previous week. Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. Among different maturities, 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale [7][22]. - **Yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit**: The yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of September 5th, the yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit rated AAA were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 0.9BP, 1BP, 1.1BP, 0.45BP, and 0.5BP compared to August 29th [7][33]. - **Bill rates**: Bill rates showed a divergence. As of September 5th, the 3M state - owned straight - discount rate, 3M state - owned transfer - discount rate, 6M state - owned straight - discount rate, and 6M state - owned transfer - discount rate were 1.26%, 1.18%, 0.78%, and 0.73% respectively, with changes of 8BP, 13BP, - 4BP, and - 7BP compared to August 29th [7][35]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of September 5th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.55% compared to August 29th, at the 36.8% historical percentile since 2021. The leverage ratio of broad - based funds increased slightly. As of September 5th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurers, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 188.3%, 128.1%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of 0.54BP, 0.54BP, - 2.08BP, and 0.05BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 26%, 1%, 66%, and 24% historical percentiles respectively [7][37][39]. - **Duration adjustment**: Funds increased their duration, while insurers and wealth - management products decreased their duration. As of September 5th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was 3.42 years, further recovering from - 1.96 years on August 29th, at the 70% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.03 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 57% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 1.62 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 22% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurers was 12.07 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 87% historical percentile [7][44].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a brief rally but ultimately closed lower, reflecting heightened concerns over recession risks despite expectations of significant interest rate cuts [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply across the board, with long-term bonds leading the decline, indicating a more pessimistic outlook in the bond market compared to equities, as funds are pricing in a recession rather than merely reacting to rate cut expectations [1] - Gold reached an all-time high, hitting $3600 per ounce during trading, signifying its transition from a commodity to a tool for hedging against systemic risks [1] Group 2 - Market participants are anticipating substantial interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges, but data from Goldman Sachs suggests that financial conditions are already extremely loose, implying that further rate cuts may not effectively support the stock market as the underlying issue lies within the economy [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 9 月 4 日，央行发布公告指出，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行将于 2025 年 9 月 5 日以固定 数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月（ 91 天），对此 我们有以下理解： 第一， 这是一次例行操作。今年 6 月起，买断式逆回购操作模式由此前的"一月一次、月末披露操作结果"变 为"灵活开展，提前预告"，其中 6 月和 8 月各有两次操作，分别在上旬和中旬； 7 月有一次操作，在中 旬。此次操作类似于 6 月和 8 月的上旬操作。 第二， 1 万亿元的操作规模属于等量续作，符合季节性规律，即仅从此次操作无法看出政策态度。今年 6 月 6 日央行曾开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月， 9 月 5 日到期，同日央行开展 1 万亿元操作 等量对冲，对狭义流动性不会产生额外影响。由于月初流动性在财政支出、银行指标考核压力减缓背景下常季 节性宽松，央行月初操作多是净回笼或等量对冲，所以这次操作没有净投放流动性在预期之内。 第四， 后续货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation from July to September 2025, predicting that the September capital market will likely remain relatively loose, similar to August, within the existing policy framework [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 July: Slow Replacement Bond Expenditure and Neutral Excess Reserve Ratio - July's excess reserve ratio dropped by 0.2pct to 1.2%, slightly more than expected but at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [6]. - Fiscal deposits in July rose by 7648 billion yuan, higher than the expected 4508 billion yuan, indicating a slow expenditure progress of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations increased by 2184 billion yuan in July, matching high - frequency monetary policy tools [6]. 3.2 August: Rising Excess Reserve Ratio and New Low in Capital Interest Rate - The scale of the broad fiscal deficit in August may be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will reduce government deposits. Government bond net supply decreased significantly compared to last year, with an estimated 3100 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [13]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 4900 billion yuan in August, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.4%, up 0.2pct from July [13]. - In August, capital was generally loose but tightened after the middle of the month. The decline in bank net lending around the tax period was significantly higher than in previous years, which may be related to the stock market and the central bank's "anti - arbitrage" stance, but the impact may be short - term [32]. - The average values of DR001 and DR007 in August reached new lows for the year, possibly due to the decline in non - bank institutional leverage demand [51]. 3.3 September: Stable Capital Interest Rate and Limited Downward Space for Overnight Interest Rate - The broad fiscal deficit in September may still be higher than in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds will continue to reduce government deposits. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decline slightly compared to August, with an estimated 7800 - billion - yuan decline in government deposits [57]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to rise by about 2800 billion yuan in September, and the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be about 1.6%, up 0.2pct from August [57]. - There is no obvious exogenous shock to the capital market in September. The central bank aims to boost inflation, and the probability of policy tightening is low. The capital market in September is likely to remain relatively loose, similar to August [65][69].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that liquidity supports the A-share market, driven by factors such as the movement of household savings, fixed income investments, and wealth management funds entering the market [2][3] - The current A-share market is in a favorable environment with intertwined domestic and foreign policy benefits and abundant liquidity, leading to a significant improvement in market funding conditions [6] - The market is expected to experience steady upward fluctuations in the short term, with a need to closely monitor changes in policy, funding, and external markets [6] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to actively seize structural opportunities, employing a barbell strategy that focuses on both high-growth sectors like computing chips and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as defensive assets with high dividend yields such as banks and precious metals [4][5] - The market may enter a phase of consolidation after rapid rotations, but the medium-term positive trend remains unchanged, with liquidity driving the current rally [8] - Overall, funding is expected to continue seeking balance between technology growth and defensive sectors, indicating a significant structural market characteristic [8]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the stock - bond seesaw, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The bullish stock market has led to a callback in risk appetite, which is beneficial to the bond market. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly economic indicators**: The social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.02%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [9]. - **Daily economic indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.16, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 and a decline rate of 0.16%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1442, with a month - on - month increase of 0.004 and a growth rate of 0.06%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.14%. DR007 was 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.28%. R007 was 1.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 and a decline rate of 13.67%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are used to show the situation of the Treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rate of each variety, the precipitation of funds, the proportion of positions held, the net position ratio of the top 20, the long - short position ratio of the top 20, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The charts show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [28][33][34]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][66][69]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate falls, the price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has increased by 0.57%, with the latest price at 121.62 yuan as of September 4, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF was active, with a turnover of 15.96% and a transaction value of 4.853 billion yuan, while the average daily transaction value over the past month was 10.203 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached a new high of 30.387 billion yuan, despite a recent net outflow of 79.6382 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan on that day [1] - Tianfeng Securities anticipates that the liquidity will remain reasonably ample, supported by increased fiscal spending and effective central bank measures, despite potential disturbances in mid to late September [1]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan, with both the bidding and winning amounts at 229.1 billion yuan, and the operation interest rate set at 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 379.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 0.20 basis points to 1.3160%, and the 7-day Shibor also increasing by 0.20 basis points to 1.4330%. In contrast, the 14-day Shibor decreased by 0.90 basis points to 1.4860% [2][4] - The 1-month Shibor was reported at 1.5170%, up by 0.10 basis points, while the 3-month Shibor stood at 1.5500%, also up by 0.10 basis points [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, the 7-day rates showed mixed results, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates remaining unchanged at 1.3141% and 1.3543%, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased by 0.4 basis points and 0.2 basis points to 1.4415% and 1.4644% [4] - The trading volume for DR001 and R001 increased by 6.4 billion yuan and 126.4 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw decreases in trading volume by 13.3 billion yuan and 362.7 billion yuan [4] Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the market was described as generally loose, with overnight rates trading around 1.30% to 1.45% throughout the day, indicating a stable and balanced liquidity environment [8] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 88, with a total issuance volume of 150.78 billion yuan, reflecting active trading sentiment as market rates declined [9] Private Banking Sector Growth - Several banks reported double-digit growth in the number of private banking clients and assets under management (AUM) in the first half of the year, with 15 banks collectively surpassing 1.63 million clients, an increase of nearly 150,000 clients [11] - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC, each reported AUM exceeding 3 trillion yuan, while Industrial Bank's AUM surpassed 1 trillion yuan, marking its entry into the "trillion club" for private banking [11] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the liquidity in the market will remain reasonably ample, supported by increased fiscal spending and effective central bank measures, despite potential disturbances in mid-September [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the AI Fund Huatai Fuhua Dividend Smart Selection Mixed Fund A (021515) has shown a profit of 781,800 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 7.52% [3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund's profit for the first half of 2025 was 78.18 million yuan, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0763 yuan [3] - As of September 2, the fund's unit net value was 1.132 yuan, and the fund size was 11.4554 million yuan [3][34] - The fund's net value growth rate over the past three months was 7.61%, ranking 557 out of 615 comparable funds, while the six-month growth rate was 14.23%, ranking 407 out of 615 [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - The fund management anticipates increased economic pressure in the second half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies and declining export effects, alongside real estate investment drag [3] - Despite the challenges, factors such as relatively ample liquidity, potential earnings growth for listed companies, and policy support are expected to positively impact the market [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 3.56 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 25.34 times [11] - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 0.33 times, compared to the industry average of 2.34 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 0.8 times, against an industry average of 2.09 times [11] Group 4: Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the weighted revenue growth rate of the stocks held by the fund was 0.02%, and the weighted net profit growth rate was 0.05% [20] - The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.09% [20] Group 5: Fund Composition and Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 34 holders, with institutional investors holding 95.02% of the shares and individual investors holding 4.98% [37] - The fund's top holdings included Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, and Gree Electric Appliances [42]