当鲍威尔走出新闻发布会现场时，他手中那份25个基点的降息决议，已经通过卫星信号传遍了全球每一个交易室。 12月10日深夜，华盛顿美联储总部的灯光亮到了凌晨。 北京金融街的券商分析师们紧急打开电脑，香港联交所的交易员端起了冷掉的咖啡，伦敦金市的报价屏上，金价曲线正快速向上跳动。 这场被市场称为"鹰派宽松"的政策变动，不仅是美国经济的"急救包"，更像一颗投入全球金融池的石子，激起的涟漪正朝着中国方向扩散。 美联储的每一次转身都牵动世界神经，这次也不例外。降息背后是美国自身的经济困局，而政策溢出效应下，全球资本正重新寻找栖息地，中国市场正成为 最显眼的那片绿洲。 很少有人知道，这次25个基点的降息决议，是美联储内部37年来最激烈的一次博弈。 会议室内，鸽派委员米兰拍着桌子主张直接降息50个基点，他手里的就业数据报告上，几个关键行业的招聘人数正逐月下滑。 而鹰派代表施密德则反复强调，通胀数据还没到放松的地步，过早降息会让之前的控通胀努力前功尽弃。7票反对的声音，让鲍威尔的最终决议显得格外沉 重。 逼得美联储不得不松口的，是金融体系里正在枯竭的流动性。 2022年以来，美联储一直在缩减资产负债表，两年时间里抽走了2.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and unexpected announcement of short - bond purchases have ignited the enthusiasm for long - liquidity in the overseas market, which is beneficial to risk assets [2]. - The domestic A - share market showed certain resilience yesterday, and in the short term, it will be repaired to some extent due to the overnight overseas influence. The market will maintain a volatile tone in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to layout for the spring market next year during the volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The Fed's December interest rate decision: It will cut interest rates by 25 basis points with 3 dissenting votes, buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, and the median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut in each of the next two years. Powell said that the economy's development could be observed, no one expected an interest rate hike, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The bond - buying scale will remain high in the coming months [4]. - Trump criticized Powell after the Fed's interest rate cut, saying the cut was too small and could be doubled, and the rate should be the lowest globally [4]. - Trump stated that the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela, claiming the move was legal [5]. - Meta is fully shifting to a closed - source model and integrating third - party models such as Alibaba's Qwen during training [5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that the special treasury bonds due in 2025 will be rolled over at the same amount without increasing the fiscal deficit [6]. - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2025 [7]. - Foreign media reported that China is considering restricting access to NVIDIA's H200 chips, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract to 15%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 17% from the close of trading on December 12, 2025 [8]. - The China Coast Guard vessel formation patrolled in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands on December 10 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index showed various closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change ratios, with different basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates. The contract delivery dates and remaining times also vary [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly net positions, and net position changes of different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and related changes of all contracts are also provided [12]. - **Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, including the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, which reflect the historical data trends of these indicators [13][18][22] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and other data of various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are presented. The data of different industries are also included, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and other sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions is analyzed [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations of important indices and Shenwan industries, as well as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [39][42][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Charts**: There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which reflect the historical data trends of these liquidity - related indicators [52][53]

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 由于市场担忧通胀问题，对FOMC及鲍威尔采取更鹰派立场的预期升温。流动性改善降低黄金持有成 本，美元指数下跌，美国10年期国债收益率下降，双重利好推动金价上涨。数据显示，决议公布后1小 时内COMEX黄金期货主力合约成交量大幅增长，大量买盘涌入推动金价突破4220美元震荡上沿。 今日周四（12月11日）亚盘时段，在今日午后美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议落幕之前，整体 市场表现平静，处于观望状态。2月交割的黄金期货(一般高于现货金十几美元)盘中报4229.1美元/盎 司，下跌7.1美元。 美国商品期货交易委员会将于本月底补全持仓报告，此前曾预计要到明年1月才能更新数据，现在计划 在12月底前清理完积压的报告。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 技术面来看，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上行目标是推动期货收盘价突破4433.00美元/盎司的合约高点/ 历史纪录高位这一强劲阻力位；空头的近期下行目标则是将期货价格压至4100.00美元/盎司的强劲技术 支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于本周高点4251.70美元/盎司，其次是4285.00美元/盎司；第一支撑位为本 周隔夜低点41 ...

美联储如期降息 宽松略超预期 市场分析 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联 储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12 日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱 动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性区间上端，政策正 从限制性向中性过渡。为缓解市场压力，短期国债购买规模将在未来数月维持高位，预计2026年4月15日前完成； 变相释放流动性，或被视为宽松力度的加强。美国总统特朗普重申对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。特朗普表示，降 息幅度太小，本可以更大一些；美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-10，沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克，收于956.40元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.51%。当日成交量 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 固 定 收 益 资金面内生稳定性回升 等待年末政策信号明朗 ——2025 年 12 月流动性月报 投资要点： 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 10 月超储率较 9 月下降约 0.2pct 至 1.2%，略低于我们预期的 1.3%。 10 月政府存款上升 6258 亿元，高于预期的 3781 亿，这是 10 月超储率低 于预期的主要原因。尽管 10 月政府存款相较于广义财政盈余及政府债净缴 款之和额外下降了 1272 亿元，但一般公共预算支出大幅低于预期，使得广 义财政盈余规模达到了 2641 亿元，而非预期的赤字。以当前数据看，全年 一般公共预算支出存在低于年初目标的可能，而在此前的大幅偏离后，今 年政府性基金支出可能较年初目标相对接近。此外，10 月央行对其他存款 性公司债权上升 146 亿元，与高频数据相差不大；10 月央行法定存款准备 金减少幅度高于预期，货币发行减少幅度低于预期，外汇占款基本符合我 们此前的预期。 11 月广义财政赤字或相对偏高，但考虑 11 月政府债净缴款大幅上行， 我们预计 11 月政府存款环比下降约 2500 亿，降幅处于往年同期中性水平， 对流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks compared to the US and A-share markets is attributed to a combination of factors including a declining credit cycle, liquidity pressure, and a mismatch between fundamentals and expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks have shown particular weakness among the three markets, influenced by a shrinking southbound capital flow and the upcoming expiration of lock-up periods for major IPOs [2][4]. - Concerns over the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike and the Federal Reserve's stance have contributed to the market's volatility, with US Treasury yields rising despite a recent rate cut by the Fed [2][4]. Group 2: Credit Cycle and Fundamentals - The key issue is the downward trend in the credit cycle, which has been evident for the past two months, leading to a likely stagnation or phase of slowdown in private credit and overall credit cycles unless there is significant policy intervention [4][6]. - The current market dynamics reflect a disconnect between the fundamentals and expectations, particularly in the technology sector, where high valuations and investor sensitivity to negative news are prevalent [6]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The report outlines four main sectors: 1. AI requires new industrial catalysts, with hardware visibility being more significant than application visibility [6]. 2. Strong cyclical sectors are influenced by US fiscal and real estate demand, alongside rising domestic PPI [6]. 3. Consumer sectors lack fundamental support, making them less attractive [6]. 4. Dividend stocks provide stable returns but lack upward elasticity [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Investors should monitor the PPI year-on-year growth rate and the M1 money supply growth rate, as these indicators may signal a potential turning point in private sector financing and economic activity [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].

但上周美股已经有不错的反弹，标普500距离创新高也就2-3个点，市场的风险偏好已经有明显的回升，过两天美联储的降息落地后，需要观察下美联储会 放出什么信号，如果是鸽派信号，那可能市场会继续向上。 距离今年结束还有3个星期，从港股互联网股业绩后来看，互联网公司都能交出一份好的业绩，互联网股的龙头公司还是便宜的，只是在最近市场风险偏 好降低的情况下，市场没有多大的反应。 那对于目前的市场，尤其是对流动性敏感的科技股而言，要想有所突破，要么靠AI产业趋势有新的突破，要么需要流动性的明显改善，美股和港A都是如 此。因此，在AI泡沫担忧还争论不断没有定论的环境下，流动性的变化无疑成为短期影响市场的一个重要变量。 目前市场的预期里，预计美联储表态会是偏鸽派的，有利于市场的温和上涨。 所以，港股作为对风险偏好敏感的市场，若后天美联储的发言表态不强硬，那前段时间调整的跌幅有望迎来修复。而港股反弹时，还是恒生科技指数ETF （513180），恒生互联网ETF（513330）的确定性要更高。 市场流动性的新变化 自从10月底以来，市场投资者的风险偏好降低，全球风险资产承压，标普/纳指/恒科从高点的最大跌幅分别达5.1%/7.3% ...

大行买短，农商接长 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 08 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：suht@zts.com.cn 1、《基金、券商共振抛券》2025-12-01 2、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 2025-11-24 3、《债基久期再回落》2025-11-20 分析师：严伶怡 本周（12.1-12.5）关注要点：本周资金利率下行，大行融出日均环比增加，基金降杠 杆；存单到期减少，存单到期收益率曲线上移；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自农商， 增持 7-10Y 利率债为主，基金延续抛盘，主要卖出 7-10Y 和 20-30Y 利率债并增持短 端信用，大行增持 3Y 以内利率债，保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债。 货币资金面 机构行为跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 本周（12.1-12.5，下同）共有 15118 亿元逆回购到期。周一至周五央行分别投放逆 回购 1076、1563、793、 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第一期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 过去两周的全球市场主要受流动性层面的影响，特别是FOMC议息会议即将在12月10日进行和美联 储新主席人选即将公布的背景下。 12月FOMC降息的概率在过去两周逐步升高，这也带来了美元指数的弱势和全球风险资产的普遍强势。 日央行行长对于可能加息的言论引发了市场波动，也带来了日元汇率的反弹和全球发达市场无风险 利率的普遍回升，给全球风险资产带来了一定的扰动。 整体来看，过去两周全球股市与商品表现不错，发达市场国债利率迎来回升，美元弱势带来非美 货币涨多跌少。 股市：全球迎普涨行情，其中科技板块强势领涨；A股通信、国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息预期抬升，发达市场无风险利率回升；30Y中债国债利率显著攀升，信用利差走扩； 商品：全球大宗 ...