Group 1 - The upcoming consumption peak season in September and October is expected to boost downstream demand and significantly revive market activity [1] - The rapid digestion of previously circulating low-priced goods has led to a steady increase in prices for rare earths and cobalt, while lithium carbonate prices have surged due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have been rising continuously as major manufacturers intensify bidding and some magnetic material companies extend production schedules to mid-October [1] Group 2 - Cobalt imports saw a significant decline in June, and current smelter operating rates are continuously being adjusted downwards, with some production cuts anticipated [1] - It is expected that cobalt prices will receive strong support towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 due to low raw material inventory levels at smelters [1] - Lithium prices are likely to rise due to upstream mine production cuts and a strong expectation of increased downstream demand, making price declines difficult [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a partial bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: なな女 - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US tariff policies, US inflation indicators, and Fed interest - rate expectations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Each metal has its own price characteristics, resistance levels, and trading strategies, which are determined by factors like inventory, production capacity, and downstream demand [3][7][8] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed positive. Spot copper was reported at 79,150 yuan, and the premium of Shanghai flat - water copper widened to 170 yuan. Hold previous high - level short positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot discount in East China narrowed by 20 yuan to 30 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 23,000 tons compared to Thursday. Consumption remained weak. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may occur in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price remained unchanged at 19,800 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor, showing some resilience relative to aluminum prices [3] - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. Spot transaction prices showed signs of loosening, and spot indices in many places were slightly adjusted downward [3] Zinc - Sino - US tariff extension led to a warm macro - sentiment, and short - sellers reduced their positions, weakening the resistance to the rebound of Shanghai zinc. Downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and some traders lowered premiums to sell. There is a phased rebound space for Shanghai zinc, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active market trading. As the domestic anti - involution theme ended, nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. Enter short positions actively as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the session and closed down at the end, with increased positions in the market. Spot tin was reported at 270,600 yuan, with a real - time premium of 700 yuan to the delivery - month contract. Wait and see or choose to go short - term long at low prices [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened high and went low with active market trading. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. Pay attention to risk management due to abnormal price fluctuations [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon increased positions and closed down at 8,890 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate with support at the previous low of 8,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether large factories in Xinjiang will resume production on a large scale [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon fluctuated and slightly closed up. The production schedule in August was significantly increased, and inventory would still restrict the increase of its spot price. It is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and do not chase high at the upper limit [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - face is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over secondary lead with stable by - product revenues. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to fluctuating lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries and low confidence among smelters, leading to a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local secondary lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. On the demand side, lead demand is mainly in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not yet seen a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery phase. The 8 - month consumption increment expectation is weak, but there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 16,915 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the SHFE lead open interest is 96,155 lots, down 3,367 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead is - 3,792 lots, up 530 lots; the SHFE lead warehouse receipts are 58,683 tons, up 201 tons. The SHFE inventory is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 16,775 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 months spread is - 35.5 dollars/ton, down 4.21 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 75.65%, down 1.84%; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,800 tons, down 30 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,205.36 yuan/ton, up 1.79 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,875.1 points, up 60.88 points. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 11, Codelco received authorization from the Chilean Labor Inspection Office to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine, which had been suspended for over a week due to a collapse accident that killed six workers. Areas not affected by the July 31 accident can resume operations, while some areas are still on hold for further inspection. Kashkari said that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year are reasonable. The subsequent market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, which is favorable for the non - ferrous sector [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Domestic spot gold slightly rose by 0.14% to 783.18 yuan/gram. Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and long - term central bank gold - buying, but with a temporary cooling of safe - haven demand. The market sentiment is cautious [3]. - **Copper**: The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand but are supported by macro expectations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation weakens the US dollar, and China's July export data boosts market sentiment. Supply concerns are raised by the mine shutdown, while consumption shows resilience. The spot premium reflects tight circulation [14]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term (20300 - 20800 yuan/ton) and may rise in the medium term. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the market may shift to cost - based pricing [34]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand but are supported by macro expectations. High processing fees drive production growth, and social inventories increase. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation provides support, but the industry's over - supply problem remains [60]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an oscillating trend. The cost of nickel - iron provides support, while the support from nickel ore is loosening [74]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain weak in supply and demand. The复产 expectations of tin mines are rising, but short - term supply is insufficient. Downstream consumption is suppressed by the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious due to tariff uncertainties [89]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the mining end affects lithium supply, tightening the market. However, downstream inventory replenishment may limit the rise of spot prices. The futures market is more volatile [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are unchanged. The approval of the second batch of polysilicon registered brands boosts future demand. Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and strengthening state, and polysilicon futures will be in a wide - range oscillation [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: Domestic spot gold rose 0.14% to 783.18 yuan/gram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and long - term central bank gold - buying, with a temporary cooling of safe - haven demand. The US dollar and geopolitical policies are core influencing factors [3]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, but macro expectations provide support. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation weakens the US dollar, and China's July export data boosts sentiment. The social inventory of Shanghai copper increases to 8.19 tons but remains low. The mine shutdown causes supply concerns, and the rebound of the operating rate shows consumption resilience [14]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and London copper 3M show increases, with daily price changes and increases ranging from 0.68% to 1.01% [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level (20300 - 20800 yuan/ton). In the medium term, it may rise as the peak season approaches and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates [34]. - **Alumina**: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and the market may shift to cost - based pricing. The high - cost area's full cost of 3000 - 3150 yuan/ton can be seen as a support level [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals are good, with scrap aluminum prices providing support and short - term demand being acceptable. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [35]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are weak, but macro expectations provide support. High processing fees drive production growth, and social inventories increase for seven consecutive weeks to 6.59 tons. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation provides support, but the over - supply problem remains [60]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc show increases, with daily price changes and increases ranging from 0.33% to 0.5% [61]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an oscillating trend. The cost of nickel - iron provides support, while the support from nickel ore is loosening [74]. - **Price and Volume Data**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures show different changes, and trading volume and open interest also change accordingly [75]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals remain weak in supply and demand. The复产 expectations of tin mines are rising, but short - term supply is insufficient. Downstream consumption is suppressed by the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious due to tariff uncertainties [89]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures and London tin show different changes, with daily price changes and increases ranging from - 0.68% to 0.22% [90]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Influence**: The shutdown of the mining end affects lithium supply, tightening the market. However, downstream inventory replenishment may limit the rise of spot prices. The futures market is more volatile [104]. - **Price Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot show significant increases, with daily and weekly price changes [105][110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are unchanged. The approval of the second batch of polysilicon registered brands boosts future demand. Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and strengthening state, and polysilicon futures will be in a wide - range oscillation [116]. - **Price Data**: The prices of industrial silicon spot and futures show increases, with daily price increases ranging from 0.51% to 3.33% [117][118].

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]

伴随传统消费旺季来临，需求提升有望带动稀土原料价格进一步走强。把握稀土板块机遇，或可关注兼 具一定规模和流动性优势的稀土ETF（516780）及其联接基金（A类：014331/C类：014332）。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资须谨慎。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定， 提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金过往业 绩不代表其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。投资者在投资 基金前，需充分了解基金的产品特性，并承担基金投资中出现的各类风险。请仔细阅读基金合同、基金 招募说明书和产品资料概要等法律文件，了解基金的具体情况。指数由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编 制和计算，其所有权归属中证。中证将采取一切必要措施以确保指数的准确性，但不对此作任何保证， 亦不因指数的任何错误对任何人负责。 伴随近日A股整体出现震荡，稀土板块表现有所波动，但市场资金的布局并未减弱。Wind数据显示，稀 土ETF（516780）连续3个交易日（25/7/31-25/8/4）获得资金净流入，三个交易日合计"吸金"1.6亿元。 资金流入助推稀土 ...

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed mixed results with significant movements in various sectors, including a rise in lumber and coking coal prices by over 2%, while egg prices fell by over 4% [1][2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.34 points, a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous trading day [1] Lumber Market Insights - Lumber prices surged by 2.81% due to optimistic expectations for the traditional consumption peak season in September and October, alongside increased foreign pricing [2] - The inventory levels of imported New Zealand lumber remained stable, but a significant increase in incoming shipments was noted, with 14 vessels expected, a 133% week-on-week increase [2] Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded by over 1% following a significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and economic conditions [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support precious metal prices in the long term [3] Egg Market Dynamics - Egg futures experienced a notable decline of over 4%, attributed to an early surge in spot prices and insufficient demand [4] - The upcoming seasonal demand period is expected to influence prices, with potential for a rebound in September contracts as the market prepares for holiday stocking [4] Industrial Silicon Trends - Industrial silicon prices fell by over 3%, primarily due to increased production from small to medium-sized enterprises in the Southwest region [5] - The demand for industrial silicon remains weak across its main downstream sectors, including organic silicon and polysilicon, with overall demand showing a downward trend [5] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production, which has pressured international oil prices and led to declines in related energy and chemical products [6]