2017 E 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D7 7 - 市 市 服 热 线 官 方 网 Int 站 需 有 课 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 HD. 入 期 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | COMEX黄金 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | 2025/6/11 3357.90 | ...

在法新社报道伊朗威胁将打击中东地区美军基地后，市场对中东可能出现供应中断的猜测进一步升温。 CIBC私人财富集团高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表示："伊朗的措辞明显变得更具敌意，这些威胁正通过现实事态发展得到佐证。虽然地缘政治引发的涨势 通常被视为卖出机会，但当前局势更复杂之处在于，若谈判破裂以色列可能采取军事行动，这令交易员对追涨持更谨慎态度。" 智通财经APP注意到，国际油价延续涨势，在周三创下去年10月以来最大单日涨幅后继续攀升。由于中东安全风险上升，美国已下令驻巴格达大使馆部分人 员撤离，并允许驻中东军人家属转移。WTI原油价格一度上涨1.7%至每桶69.29美元，此前周三已飙升4.9%；布伦特原油价格则逼近70美元关口。 特朗普政府此举是对持续安全威胁的回应——伊朗此前威胁称，若核谈判破裂将袭击美军基地。英国海军也罕见地向海员发出警告，称中东紧张局势升级可 能影响航运。 最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存降幅超预期。为满足夏季需求，全美炼油厂正全力运转，原油加工量达到2019年12月以来最高水平。 此轮上涨打破了油价过去一个月多数时间所处的窄幅波动区间，凸显其对地缘政治紧张局势的敏感性——尤其是占全球原油产 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of strong gold and weak silver, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold rising 0.56% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver falling 0.28% [1]. - In the short - term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the Sino - US trade talks are expected to focus on rare earths and export controls. The second - day consultation between the two countries went smoothly, and a trade framework was reached [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the anxiety of US people about the future inflation path in May has eased. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the total expected interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC net long positions in silver and iShare Silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [2]. 3.1.2 Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3344.80 per ounce, down $1.90 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down $32.10 (-0.95%) from last week; London gold closed at $3337.70 per ounce, up $18.40 (0.55%) from the previous day and up $2.95 (0.09%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 777.54 yuan per gram, up 2.48 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day and down 4.88 yuan (-0.62%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 774.54 yuan per gram, up 1.72 yuan (0.22%) from the previous day and down 5.14 yuan (-0.66%) from last week [2]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [2]. 3.1.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members increased, while the net short positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [6]. 3.2.2 Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.66 per ounce, down $0.25 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.71%) from last week; London silver closed at $36.76 per ounce, up $0.51 (1.41%) from the previous day and up $2.51 (7.33%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8902 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan (0.17%) from the previous day and up 439 yuan (5.19%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8882 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 441 yuan (5.22%) from last week [6]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [6]. 3.2.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members had different changes, and the net short positions decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate (IORB) all decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $67236.32 billion, down $5.14 billion (-0.00%) [8]. - Other economic indicators: M2 increased by 0.83 percentage points year - on - year; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, the US Treasury yield spread, etc., all had different changes [8][10]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2296.37 tons, up 4.04 tons (0.18%); the US had 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world had 36250.15 tons, unchanged [10][12]. - Other indicators: such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, trade, etc., all had different changes [10]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations: The probability of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates is provided [13].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing significant countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on over $100 billion worth of American goods, as trade negotiations intensify and the deadline approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US may extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with only a principle agreement likely to be reached by then [1][2]. - EU officials have engaged in frequent discussions with US counterparts, focusing on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [2]. - Despite a seemingly positive negotiation atmosphere, the EU perceives the US demands as unilateral and potentially skewed in favor of Washington [2]. Group 2: Countermeasures Prepared by the EU - The EU has prepared a two-tiered response plan, with the first tier targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and poultry [4]. - The second tier is more aggressive, aimed at $950 billion worth of US products, specifically targeting Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]. - The EU estimates that current US tariffs affect approximately €380 billion ($434 billion) of EU exports to the US, representing about 70% of total EU exports to the US [3]. Group 3: EU's Stance on Tariffs - The EU Commission has expressed readiness to defend its interests and protect its workers, consumers, and industries, while also indicating a preference for reducing tariffs rather than increasing them [6].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -42.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 2001.500 | 1371.1 | +18.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -59.80↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 630.40 | 446.60 | -49.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | +40.60↑ | -378.69 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -891↓ | 44603 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 369.99↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1622.81 | 2,185.08 | 466.94↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 167.64↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 2240.35 | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 37.37↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 1154 ...

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, revealing its anxiety over the trade situation [1][3] - China's rare earth exports fell by 34% in May, with significant impacts on military-grade materials [3][5] - The U.S. faces a long and costly process to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, estimated to take 8-10 years and require hundreds of billions of dollars [5] - The trade war is reshaping global supply chains, with China transitioning from a reactive stance to a rule-setting position [3][5] - The U.S. is experiencing a dual challenge of needing to constrain China while simultaneously relying on its resources [5][9] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. delegation, including key economic officials, is demanding China restore rare earth exports to April levels [1] - There is a disconnect in the negotiations, with the U.S. pushing for concessions while China calls for the removal of recent export restrictions [5][9] - The U.S. has violated previous agreements, such as the Geneva consensus, which has weakened the economic relationship [7] Group 2: China's Strategic Position - China holds significant leverage in the rare earth market, controlling 92% of refining and 99% of heavy rare earth processing [3] - The country is also advancing in other strategic sectors like renewable materials and biotechnology, further enhancing its bargaining power [5][9] - China's customs data shows a sharp decline in graphite electrode exports to the U.S., critical for the American steel industry [7] Group 3: Economic Implications - A complete decoupling of U.S.-China technology could lead to a global GDP decline of $1.5 trillion, equivalent to the entire economy of Australia [7] - The ongoing trade tensions are detrimental to both nations, with the U.S. potentially facing greater losses if it continues its current approach [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货79215，基差335，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月10日铜库存减2000至120400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铜价会压制下游消费。 3、铜材出口退税取消 每日汇总 近期利多利空分 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆小幅收涨，美豆局部干旱及中美接触有所助力，不过美豆总体优良率较高限制涨幅。周二国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌，因压榨量处于高位，供应宽松，华东低价报 2820 元/吨，国内豆粕成交较弱，开机 率较高，不过提货较好，下游仍在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势，不过由于前期开 机延迟等，油厂库存压力相对后移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，不过爱荷华州及以北降雨偏少。巴西升贴水涨跌互现， 或因销售进度偏慢，但雷亚尔升值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下 调，美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, driven by signs of easing in the US-China trade war[11] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 saw a rise of 3.2%[11] - The trade war has shown signs of thawing, with a meeting between US and Chinese officials being viewed as a significant step towards negotiations[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, marking the first increase since November of the previous year[20] - The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[25] - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, indicating a rise in joblessness despite a modest increase in non-farm payrolls[35] Group 3: Market Risks - There is a persistent trend of de-dollarization in global liquidity, as investors show reduced confidence in US dollar assets[16] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month[41] - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) has been revised downwards by approximately 4.0% in April and May, reflecting concerns over inflation and tariffs[46]