【2025年7月1日碳酸锂期货收涨，市场仍供大于求】2025年7月1日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62140元/ 吨，收于62780元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当日成交量398387手，持仓量326676手，较前一减少 4148手，期货升水电碳1480元/吨。所有合约总持仓592395手，较前一减少4592手，合约总成交量较前 一减少9815手，投机度0.82，仓单22940手，较上日增加312手。 现货方面，7月1日电池级碳酸锂报价 6.05 - 6.21万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价5.92 - 6.02万元/吨，均较前一无变化。 库存上，现货库存13.68万 吨，其中冶炼厂库存5.90万吨，下游库存4.06万吨，其他库存3.72万吨，成交价格重心暂时持稳。市场 仍供大于求，供应端可流通货源充足，库存压力未缓解；需求端下游正极厂7月排产有增量预期，但仍 以刚需采购为主，观望情绪浓，成交少。 6月，国内碳酸锂市场显著增产，当月总产量环比增长8%， 同比增幅达18%，产量达78090吨。 策略上，基本面偏弱，过剩格局未变，7月材料厂排产有增量，短 期消费有支撑。7月仓单注销，供应端减产消息扰动致盘面波动放 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 280 350 220 350 -1173 2025/07/0 1 801 2520 2480 2430 2550 2445 2543 280 350 220 90 -1208 日度变化 0 -265 -5 0 -50 0 0 0 0 0 -260 -35 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose over 4%, industrial silicon nearly 3%, rapeseed meal and PX over 1%. On the downside, the container shipping index (European line) dropped nearly 2%, and SC crude oil, glass, coking coal, and methanol fell over 1% [4]. - Different futures contracts have various trends and forecasts based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. For example, copper prices may face short - term upward risks but also callback risks; aluminum prices will continue to operate at a high level in the short term; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6][11]. 3. Summary by Futures Contracts Metal Futures - **Copper (沪铜2508合约)**: Closed down today. Short - term upward risk is high, and there is a callback risk. Support level is 78300 [5]. - **Aluminum (沪铝2508合约)**: Flat compared to yesterday. Cost support weakened, but due to macro interference, short - term prices will remain high. Resistance level is 20000 [6]. - **Lead (沪铅2508合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With demand recovery and supply reduction, prices are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term buying on dips is recommended. Resistance is 17200, support is 16400 [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2509合约)**: Weak and volatile. With weakening demand and high supply, the fundamental surplus remains. Short - term selling on rallies is recommended. Resistance is 64000 [11]. - **Iron Ore (铁矿2509合约)**: The main contract rose. With expected decline in molten iron production and off - season demand, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 750, support is 650 [13]. - **Coking Coal (焦煤2509合约)**: Fell in a volatile manner. Some mines cut production. Pay attention to the third - quarter pricing of Mongolian coal. It will operate in a volatile range. Pressure is 900, support is 700 [15]. - **Coke (焦炭2509合约)**: Fell in a volatile manner. After the fourth price cut, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 1500, support is 1100 [16]. - **Rebar (螺纹2510合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. High exports support, but supply pressure emerges. It will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 3100, support is 2900 [17]. - **Nickel (沪镍2507合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With upstream price support and weakening demand, it is short - term strong and volatile. Pressure is 125000, support is 115000 [19][20]. - **Stainless Steel (不锈钢2508合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With reduced production and weakening downstream expectations, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 13000, support is 12200 [21]. Chemical Futures - **Natural Rubber (天胶2509合约)**: The price center dropped. With a lack of short - term drivers, it is likely to oscillate below the 40 - day moving average [24]. - **PTA (PTA2509合约)**: Closed with a doji at 4800. Short - term fundamentals change little, and the market follows cost fluctuations [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol (乙二醇2509合约)**: Fell continuously under short - position increase. There is an expectation to test lower lows. It will oscillate above if it cannot break through effectively [27]. - **Plastic (塑料2509合约)**: Closed down under the 10 - day moving average. With a lack of short - term drivers, it will oscillate below the 10 - day moving average [29]. - **Polypropylene (聚丙烯2509合约)**: Oscillated around the 60 - day moving average. Short - term fundamentals change little, and it will mainly oscillate [30]. - **Soda Ash (纯碱2509合约)**: Fell 0.92% on June 30, with an increase of 79,300 lots. Some device overhauls are expected to boost the market. It is expected to rise in a short - term volatile manner, but the upward momentum is limited [31]. - **Glass (玻璃2509合约)**: Fell 1.28% on June 30, with an increase of 30,700 lots. After the market digested policy benefits, it will likely operate in a short - term range due to shipping pressure and cooling policy speculation [32]. - **Urea (尿素2509合约)**: Fell 0.64% on June 30, with an increase of 1,200 lots. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda (烧碱2509合约)**: Fell 0.47% on June 30, with an increase of 1,100 lots. With falling spot prices, it will rise in a short - term volatile manner [37]. Agricultural Futures - **Soybean Meal (豆粕2509合约)**: Rose 0.78% and reduced positions by 53,000 lots. Traders adjusted positions before the key report. Global supply is expected to be abundant. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 3100 [40]. - **Rapeseed Meal (菜粕2509合约)**: Rose 1.14%. Both 2509 and 2601 contracts reduced positions by over 10,000 lots. Short - covering drove the price up. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 2700 [43]. - **Soybean Oil (豆油2509合约)**: Fell 0.22%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is 7600, pressure is 8300 [44]. - **Palm Oil (棕榈油2509合约)**: Fell 0.43%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 9000 [46]. - **Corn (玉米2509合约)**: Weak and volatile. The fundamentals are in a "lean period". It will operate in a range. Support is 2200, pressure is 2450 [49]. - **Live Pig (生猪2509合约)**: Fell 0.86%. Supply is high, and demand is weak in the short term. But the medium - term price may rebound. The next - day range is 13700 - 14000. Support is 13500, pressure is 14000 [50]. - **Apple (苹果2510合约)**: Fell 0.1%. The spot market has weak supply and demand. The new - season production reduction is within 10%. It will oscillate. Pressure is 8000, support is 7500 [51]. - **Egg (鸡蛋2508合约)**: Rose 0.68%. Demand for low - price replenishment increased, but supply is still high. It will oscillate at a low level. The next - day range is 3530 - 3600. Pressure is 3700, support is 3500 [52]. - **Cotton (棉花2509合约)**: The closing price was flat. If the commercial inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation on inventory in the third quarter. The USDA report is positive. Pay attention to weather conditions. Pressure is 14000, support is 13500 [54]. - **Sugar (白糖2509合约)**: Rose 0.35%. Domestic fundamentals are positive, but raw sugar is still low. There is a potential for decline. Pressure is 5850, support is 5700 [56]. - **Peanut (花生2510合约)**: Fell 0.17%. Although the hype in the producing area has cooled down, prices are unlikely to fall sharply. It will adjust slightly downward. Pressure is 8500, support is 8000 [57]. - **Log (原木2509合约)**: Fell 0.38%. Spot prices are stable. It will oscillate in the off - season. Pay attention to delivery and capital movements. Pressure is 850, support is 750 [58]. Energy Futures - **Crude Oil (原油2508合约)**: Fell 1.1%. After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the risk premium decreased. Pressure is 500, support is 450 [59]. - **Fuel Oil (燃料油2509合约)**: Fell 0.5%. It followed the decline of crude oil. Pressure is 3000, support is 2800 [60]. Shipping Futures - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) (集运欧线2508合约)**: Fell 1.92% on June 30. The Shanghai container shipping index showed a split trend. The index will gradually turn to oscillation [62].

钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 在短期反弹后，期货重新回落。目前钢厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高 | | | | 企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好， | | | | 库存变化不大，供需矛盾比较有限。上行缺少驱动支撑，但在基差修复背 | | | | 景下行情重回区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。前期上行主要受情绪改善推动，基本面支 | | | | 撑比较有限，重回区间运行状态。【3090，3130】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | | 比继续改善，矿价偏强运行。观点：短期区间参与【700,730】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂 ...

2025/7/1 10:31 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 【国富期货早间看点】 ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆 2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月01日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 3981.00 | -0. 62 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 66. 63 | 0. 44 | 0. 32 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 64.97 | -0. 15 | 0. 20 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1027. 50 | 0.22 | -0. 92 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 289. 50 | 0. 45 | -0. 62 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 75 | 0. 25 | -0. 45 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日深跌幅 ...

根据行业调研，上海陆家嘴金融城的期货公司密度堪称"全国之最"，北京金融街的机构交易室彻夜亮 灯，深圳福田区的期货私募数量每年增长30%。但更让人意外的是，杭州、成都等新一线城市的散户交 易量正在迅猛追赶——原来期货市场的"地理密码"早已被改写！ 01 上海 上海期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心等重要期货交易场所坐落于此，交易品种丰富，涵盖有色金 属、能源化工、贵金属等领域。数据显示，全国40%的期货公司总部设在上海，上期所铜期货单月3000 万手的成交量，与伦敦、纽约形成全球三大定价中心。外滩那些看似低调的写字楼里，可能就藏着掌管 百亿资金的交易团队。上海期货大厦的电梯每天要运送超过2000名交易员，这个数字相当于某些省份全 省的期货从业人数。陆家嘴的星巴克被戏称为"非官方交易厅"，在这里能听到最前沿的跨境套利策 略。 02 杭州 杭州被称为期货界的 "热土"，从这里走出了叶庆均、徐王冠等众多期货大佬。杭州的期货圈藏着两 个"世界级秘密"：一是阿里系员工用期权思维玩转期货套利，二是顶级游资大佬偏爱在西湖边的茶室 谈交易。150家期货机构在此扎堆。永安期货场外期权规模突破1000亿元。杭州期货私募圈的影响力持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the steel sector has slightly narrowed. In the off - season, there is still concern about a decline in demand, and the black - metal sector lacks a strong rebound driver. [4][5] - For coking coal and coke, although the fundamentals are improving, the futures prices lack upward drive after reaching certain levels. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine production in July. [6][7] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal and steel prices. [7] - Iron ore prices have risen with the overall recovery of industrial products. The price is currently in a trading range, and it can be short - sold near the upper limit. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, the futures market rose slightly and then fell back, with weak upward - continuation momentum. Spot trading volume and prices improved slightly compared to the previous two weeks. The prices of coal and coke futures declined at the end of the session due to production - resumption news and capital outflows. The basis of black - metal varieties has been rapidly repaired. [5] - Suggestion: Wait and see for single - side trading. Focus on the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the re - entry point. Short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: Coking coal auctions were fully completed with most prices rising, while port - traded coke was weak. Downstream enterprises replenished stocks moderately. Some previously shut - down coal mines have started to resume production. [6] - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined rapidly after reaching 830 and 1430 respectively, lacking upward drive. The fundamentals are improving, but downstream replenishment motivation is limited. [7] - Suggestion: For speculators, set a stop - loss at the previous high and short on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium for selling hedging. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Supply has increased slightly. Demand has risen as steel tenders are settled, iron - making is at a high level, and the demand for metal magnesium has recovered. Short - term supply and demand are acceptable. The price mainly follows coal and steel. [7] - Manganese silicon: Supply has continued to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose with rising inventories. The price mainly fluctuates and follows steel, with attention on coal and manganese ore prices. [7] - Suggestion: Buy call options at low prices for their high price elasticity. [7] Iron Ore - The spot price has declined to narrow the basis, and the optimal deliverable is orbf. The steel mill's profit remains high, and iron - making is expected to stay above 240. The steel data has exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is in a trading range. [7] - Suggestion: Short - sell near the upper limit of the trading range. [7]