农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 补栏淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | | 周二，生猪期货反弹，主力 2603 合约盘中震荡向上，日收涨 1.29%，报收 11810 元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.5 元/公斤，环比涨 0.06 元/公 | | | 斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13 元/公斤，环比涨 0.18 元/公斤，四川平， | | | 山东、广东、辽宁涨。大体重生猪需求较好，养殖端有压栏增重情绪，生猪实际 | | | 生猪 供应偏紧，支撑生猪现货价格上涨。我的农产品公布数据显示，12 月，规模长 | 震荡 | | 能繁母猪存栏环比下降 0.18%，中小散环比下降 1.19%，综合环比降幅 0.22%，能 | | | 繁母猪存栏环比延续下降，对期货市场形成支撑，远月合约增仓向上。建议设置 | | | 动态止盈，关注生猪期货主力合约长期均线的技术表现。 | | 二、市场信息 1、 印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将 1 月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨 915 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a decline in the Malaysian palm oil market after breaking below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are also expected to be weak in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil may be affected by related varieties. In China, the inventory of soybean oil in oil mills is decreasing, and the fundamentals are positive [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. There may be a risk of further decline in the futures price, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. 2.2 Cotton The ICE cotton futures are rising. The US cotton is expected to be volatile. In China, the cotton sales progress is faster than last year, and there are no obvious negative factors. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 2.3 Sugar The ICE raw sugar futures are slightly rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In China, the sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile due to the expected increase in production [4]. 2.4 Jujube The current spot market trading of jujube is light, and the price is loose. The new - season warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [6]. 2.5 Corn In the short - term, the corn price will be volatile due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price will be suppressed by policy releases and potential pre - festival selling pressure [8]. 2.6 Pork The spot price of pork has returned to a volatile pattern. The futures price is expected to be in a consolidation phase in the short - term, with limited upward space [10]. 2.7 Meal The global soybean supply is loose, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic meal market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with limited downward space [13]. 2.8 Eggs The inventory of laying hens may decrease, and the supply pressure may ease. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern due to the relatively loose supply [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1.09% to 554 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 6.68% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spread increased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [1]. 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - Industrial inventory, imports, and cotton outbound transportation volume increased, while textile industry inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the futures price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales decreased, and the inventory in some regions decreased [4]. 3.4 Jujube 3.4.1 Futures Price - The futures price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the futures price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4.2 Spot Price - The spot price of Cangzhou super - grade jujube decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade jujube remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Corn 3.5.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.31% [8]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.91% [8]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.3 Spot Indicators - The slaughter volume increased by 0.07% to 225069 heads, and the self - breeding and reproduction profit increased by 73.41% [10]. 3.7 Meal 3.7.1 Price Changes - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. 3.7.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly [13]. 3.8 Eggs 3.8.1 Futures Market - The futures price of egg 03 increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of egg 04 increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan/500KG [15]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The egg产区 price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan/jin [15]. 3.8.3 Related Indicators - The egg - feed ratio decreased by 2.08%, and the breeding profit decreased by 13.96% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each product [2]. - Different products have different market outlooks, such as short - term high - level consolidation, upward movement of the central price range, and limited upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a short - term high - level consolidation market; PTA is in a high - level consolidation market; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: PX domestic supply increases, PTA device restarts, and MEG has high domestic supply and increasing port arrivals [5][7][8]. - **Investment Suggestions**: PX holds positive spreads; PTA maintains positive spreads; MEG conducts reverse spreads on monthly spreads [7][8]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: The rubber market is oscillating strongly [2][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and overseas raw material prices rise [9]. - **Industry News**: Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increases, and domestic production areas enter the off - season [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: The short - term central price range moves upward [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, trading volumes increase, and the price of raw material butadiene goes up [12]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic butadiene in ports increases, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreases [13]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The standard product production decreases, and the spot is firm [2][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory shifts to the middle - stream [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material price stabilizes and rebounds, and the supply and demand face medium - term pressure [16]. PP - **Market Trends**: There are few ongoing maintenance projects, and the basis weakens passively [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot sales pressure is moderate [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost is high, the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals have limited support [19]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [2][20]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is weakly stable [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term decline is limited, and there may be a short - term rebound, but the overall supply and demand situation is not optimistic [22]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: The pulp market is oscillating strongly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the price of broad - leaf pulp increases [27][28]. - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is rigid, and the price of household paper may be range - bound [29]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][30]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the spot price is stable [31]. - **Market Analysis**: The holiday atmosphere is strong, and the sales of enterprises are average [31]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term [2][33]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and the spot price rises in some regions [34][36]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [37]. Urea - **Market Trends**: The central price range moves upward [2][38]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory of enterprises decreases [39][40]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand improvement drives the price up, but the upward strength needs dynamic observation [41]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][45]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the current valuation is high [43][44]. - **Market Analysis**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little [2][47]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the supply is high while the demand is tepid [48]. LPG, Propylene - **Market Trends**: LPG has a firm import cost, and propylene's demand is stable with a slight price increase [2][51]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the operating rates of relevant industries change [51]. PVC - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space [2][59]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [60]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and maintenance expectations drive the price up, but high inventory and weak demand limit the increase [61]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil turns strong and is prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term; low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend [2][64]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [64]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: The 02 contract subsidizes the premium, and the far - month contracts focus on premium subsidies and geopolitical events [2][66]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the shipping capacity and freight rates change [66][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The valuation of the 02 contract rises, and the 04 contract may provide a suitable short - selling ratio after the premium subsidy [73][74]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Market Trends**: They are in short - term oscillation [2][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and spot prices change, and the short - fiber sales rate improves [76]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trends**: It is advisable to wait and see [2][79]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is stable, and the cost and profit change slightly [79]. - **Market Analysis**: The market demand is weak, and the trading is light [80][82]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][83]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the port inventory increases [83][84].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 月美农报告公布临 | | 豆粕 | | 近，市场预计单产会有下调，昨日最新美豆周度出口数据同比继续下降，但下降幅 | | | 短线整理 | | | ★ | | 度有很大缓解，难以对美豆构成进一步利空打压。1 月报告公布前，叠加南美天气 | | | | 仍有波动，美豆止跌整理反弹走势。昨日豆粕跟随外盘收涨。关注美豆出口数据、 | | | | 1 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。但加拿大总理中旬面临 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 访华，削弱市场看多情绪。菜粕以跟随豆粕为主。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和 | | | | 进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油 12 月库存预计仍会累库，叠加本月前 5 日出口数据不佳，棕榈油短线预 | | ★ | 短线震荡整理 | 计承压暂维持震荡。但由于减产季来临 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260107 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.612 | 5, 530 | +82 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.614 | 5.544 | +70 | | | | 成交量(手) | 374.040 | 223. 450 | +150. 590 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 220, 737 | 213, 721 | +7.016 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 131, 054 | 115. 576 | +15, 478 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23.717 | -23.560 | -157 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -12 | 70 | -82 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -892 | -830 | -62 | | | 月差 ...

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| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6448 | 6400 | 48 | PF01-02 | -84 | -62 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6532 | 6462 | 70 | PF02-03 | 0 | -56 | 56 | | | 短纤2603 | 6532 | 6518 | 14 | PF主力基差 | 3 | 53 | -50 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 165849 | 173239 | -7390 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 535 | 6.515 | 20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 131998 | 153152 | -21154 | 短纤产销率 | 77% | 53% | 24% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 0 | 5810 | -5810 | PR01-02 | -6066 | -132 | -5.934 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]

Group 1: Overall Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, pig, meal, and egg, providing daily updates on futures and spot market prices, as well as industry analysis and outlooks [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures maintain a narrow - range oscillation. There are concerns about potential inventory increases. In China, Dalian palm oil futures also show a narrow - range fluctuation around 8,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a narrow - range adjustment. Brazilian soybean harvest forecasts may drag down the market. In China, although the Spring Festival stocking may reduce factory inventories, the possibility of large - scale long - position operations by funds is low [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The continuous shutdown of COFCO's rapeseed production line limits the available supply, supporting the rapeseed oil futures market. The market is focused on whether it can break through the 9,200 - yuan resistance level [1]. Market Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: On January 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan (up 0.59% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2605 was 7,912 yuan (up 0.71%), and the basis of Y2605 was 548 yuan (down 1.08%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan (up 0.94%), the futures price of P2605 was 8,500 yuan (up 0.14%), and the basis of P2605 was 70 yuan (up 3400.00%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan (down 1.49%), the futures price of O1605 was 9,130 yuan (up 0.95%), and the basis of O1605 was 770 yuan (down 23.46%) [1]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE cotton futures rose. The US cotton market is expected to be affected by planting area reduction, temperature rise, and precipitation decrease. In China, processing enterprises are holding prices, and the core drivers are the strong expectation of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking. However, due to the low cost of foreign cotton and weak demand, cotton prices are expected to maintain a slightly - strong oscillation in the short term [2]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of cotton 2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton (up 1.36%), and the price of cotton 2609 was 15,040 yuan/ton (up 1.31%) [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,487 yuan (up 0.29%), and the CC Index of 3128B was 15,711 yuan (up 0.61%) [2]. - **Industry situation**: The import volume increased by 33.3%, the inventory of the textile industry decreased by 500.0% year - on - year, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [2]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly. The focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased by nearly 25% compared to the same period last year. In China, the spot market is dull, but the Spring Festival stocking demand and the positive atmosphere of bulk commodities support the price. However, due to the peak of the sugar - making season, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of white sugar 2605 was 5,259 yuan/ton (up 0.04%), and the price of white sugar 2609 was 5,275 yuan/ton (up 0.11%) [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning was 5,340 yuan (up 0.19%), and the price in Kunming was 5,200 yuan (unchanged) [3]. - **Industry situation**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 42.53% [3]. Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The acquisition in Xinjiang's jujube - producing areas has ended. Downstream demand is based on needs, and the number of buyers has increased, but the transaction has not improved significantly. After the futures rebound, the generation of new - season warehouse receipts is gradually increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the futures price will oscillate and consolidate [6]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of jujube 2605 was 8,975 yuan/ton (up 0.22%), and the price of jujube 2607 was 9,045 yuan/ton (down 0.06%) [6]. Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, but the high price may suppress consumption. The inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. In the futures market, the short - term delivery logic dominates, the capital sentiment is strong, the futures price is stronger than the spot price, and the basis is weakening, while the delivery profit is gradually recovering [7]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of apple 2605 was 9,614 yuan/ton (up 0.70%), and the price of apple 2610 was 8,531 yuan/ton (up 0.96%) [7]. Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the corn market, there is still reluctance to sell in the Northeast and North China, and the price is relatively stable. Before the Spring Festival, there is a selling pressure expectation. On the demand side, the low inventory in the northern ports supports the price, but the acceptance of high - price corn by deep - processing and feed enterprises is limited. Policy - wise, the directional auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement the market supply. In the short term, the price will oscillate under the game of multiple factors [9]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of corn 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton (down 0.09%), and the price of corn starch 2603 was 2,501 yuan/ton (down 0.32%) [9]. Group 8: Pig Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After New Year's Day, the market demand has declined. Although the northern supply has decreased, the southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing the price. In December, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens increased, but it is expected that these pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January. The overall supply in January is relatively loose. The futures market is affected by capital sentiment and is short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [12]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the main pig 2605 contract was 12,255 yuan/ton (up 1.20%), and the price of the pig 2603 contract was 11,810 yuan/ton (up 1.29%) [12]. Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans rebounded technically, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American harvest expectations continue to suppress the market. The domestic spot market remains loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, but the downside of soybean meal is limited. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [15]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,100 yuan (unchanged), the price of M2605 was 2,776 yuan (up 0.80%), and the basis of M2605 was 324 yuan (down 6.36%) [15]. Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the number of laying hens in January is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The market is shipping smoothly, and with the approaching of the peak season, the downstream is stocking slightly, and the market sentiment is bullish. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [18]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the egg 03 contract was 2,992 yuan/500KG (up 0.27%), and the price of the egg 04 contract was 3,250 yuan/500KG (down 0.03%) [18].

消息方面，截至 12 月 31 日，2025/26 年榨季广西 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家；累计入榨甘 蔗 1623.03 万吨，同比减少 525.15 万吨；产混合糖 194.19 万吨，同比减少 80.95 万吨；混合产糖率 11.96%，同比降低 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88.48 万吨，同比减少 74.74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比 下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月份广西单月产糖 180.8 万吨，同比减少 43.1 万吨；单月销糖 79.54 万 吨，同比减少 55.18 万吨；工业库存 105.71 万吨，同比减少 6.21 万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5300~5370元/吨，上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5220元/吨，个别上调10~20元/ 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5700~5900元/吨，少数调整30~50元/吨，涨跌不一。原糖方面，市场对于 印度产量同比大幅提升反应平淡，市场仍维持震荡格局。国内方面，春节补库开始，成交有所好转，加 之近期大宗商品整体较为强势，期价向区间上沿攀升，未来关键在于本月压榨进度及进口情况， ...