Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Interest rates were cut as expected [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price [2][8]. - Zinc: Pulled back from a high level [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limited the price decline [2][14]. - Tin: Supply was disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: Continued to fluctuate; Alumina rebounded slightly; Cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Faced significant resistance above [2][25]. - Palladium: Trended slightly upward in a volatile manner [2][25]. - Nickel: The structural surplus situation changed, but the conflicting factors in the game remained unchanged; Stainless steel: Both supply and demand continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [2][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all rose by 0.51% yesterday, while the night - session prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D declined slightly [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 6,955, and the position decreased by 1,834; the trading volume of Comex Gold 2512 increased by 6,122, and the position increased by 1,832 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 113,819 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2512 remained unchanged, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 0.87 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T + D rose by 5.59% and 5.72% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of Shanghai Silver 2512 rose by 0.78% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 505,812, and the position increased by 33,231; the trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased by 2,658, and the position remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 24,057 kilograms, while the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 321,251 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 decreased by 46, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 11.3 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Copper - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.83% and 0.78% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 83,947, and the position decreased by 1,936; the trading volume of LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2,268, and the position increased by 3,241 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 600 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 700 tons [8]. - **Spread**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 8.19, and the spot - to - near - month spread decreased by 65 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024; China's November imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative import of 27.614 million tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%; the US is negotiating with central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects; Chile's November copper export value increased by 4.57% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract rose slightly by 0.02%, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk declined by 1.33% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased, and the trading volume and position of LME Zinc also decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,297 tons, while the inventory of LME Zinc increased by 1,650 tons [11]. - **News**: China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk declined by 0.32% and 1.10% respectively [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased, and the position decreased; the trading volume of LME Lead increased, and the position decreased [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 202 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 1,375 tons [14]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract rose by 3.30%, and the night - session price declined by 0.51%; the closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose by 0.40% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and the trading volume of LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly, while the position increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 86 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 605 tons [17]. - **Spread**: The spread between the spot and the main - contract futures of tin increased by 8,380 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; the AH - share real - estate sector rose sharply on Wednesday afternoon; the Goldman Sachs model showed that the RMB was undervalued by 25% [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract showed different trends; the closing price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose [20]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Aluminum increased slightly, and the inventory of LME Aluminum decreased; the domestic alumina average price declined [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing, and still expected one rate cut next year, and would buy $40 billion in short - term bonds; the US employment - cost increase reached a new low in over four years, and inflation pressure eased [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for all of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [24]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed to varying degrees [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum decreased by 152 ounces, and the inventory of NYMEX Palladium increased by 7,049 ounces [24]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and the spreads between spot and futures changed [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed announced purchases of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, cut interest rates by 25 basis points with three dissenting votes, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one rate cut in each of the next two years; Trump continued to criticize Powell after the rate cut; Indonesia imposed a floating tariff on gold exports, with a maximum rate of 15%; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela; Maduro stated that Venezuela was ready to "knock out the teeth of the US" if necessary; the US third - quarter labor - cost growth rate dropped to the lowest in four years [26][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for platinum and 1 for palladium [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract declined slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract rose [29]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract changed to varying degrees [29]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains, such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products, showed different trends [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia; the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Indonesia issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process; Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software"; Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks affected the production of some nickel - wet - process projects; New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both nickel and stainless steel [33].

Oil Market - On Wednesday, oil prices showed a V-shaped recovery, with WTI January contract closing at $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.36%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 (0.44%) [2][16] - EIA report indicated a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, against an expected decline of 2.3 million barrels [2][16] - US crude oil net imports increased by 212,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day [2][16] - Geopolitical factors, including the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil flows and US military actions against a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, are influencing current oil price movements [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.65% to 2427 yuan per ton [3][17] - Low-sulfur fuel oil contract decreased by 0.17% to 3009 yuan per ton [3][17] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 0.24% to 2940 yuan per ton [4][18] - Social inventory rate decreased by 0.56% to 23.86%, while total inventory at domestic refineries increased by 0.21% to 27.21% [4][18] - Winter storage prices for asphalt are expected to decline to near five-year lows, predicted to be between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 230 yuan per ton to 15215 yuan per ton [5][19] - The border situation between Thailand and Cambodia is expected to reduce rubber production by 487,000 kilograms per day [5][19] - Limited demand support is noted despite a slight rebound in raw material prices [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4616 yuan per ton, down 0.6% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6746 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [6][20] - The overall supply structure for ethylene glycol is tightening, but long-term inventory pressure remains [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2078 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices between $241-245 per ton [7][21] - Iranian facility shutdowns are expected to reduce imports in mid-December to January [7][21] - Methanol prices are anticipated to remain stable at the bottom due to limited upside potential [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6400 yuan per ton [8][22] - Production margins for various methods of polypropylene production are negative, indicating cost pressures [8][22] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure [8][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China decreased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4300-4420 yuan per ton [9][23] - Supply is expected to remain high while domestic demand is slowing down due to reduced construction activity [9][23] - Overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [9][23] Urea - Urea futures showed wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1645 yuan per ton [10][24] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan to 1700 yuan and 1690 yuan respectively [10][24] - The supply situation remains uncertain, with production rates holding steady [10][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures continued to weaken, closing at 1094 yuan per ton, down 2.93% [11][25] - The industry operating rate remains at 84.22%, with supply expected to increase [11][25] - Demand is lackluster, with limited large-scale inventory accumulation [11][25] Glass - Glass futures prices continued to decline, closing at 964 yuan per ton, down 2.13% [12][26] - The average price for float glass remained stable at 1097 yuan per ton [12][26] - Market dynamics show weak demand and limited production changes, leading to a bearish outlook [12][26]

今天郑棉小幅上涨，最近几个交易日走势偏震荡,棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较 大. 但商业库存并不高. 销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳、关注春 节前需求能否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底,全国棉花商业库存为 468.36万吨，环比增加175.3万吨，同比增加1万吨。截至12月4号，国内棉花累积加工量为579.4万吨。纺企对 于原料需求仍存韧性,纺企成品库存不高,下游纺企现金流尚可。近期郑棉表现震荡偏强,产业可以关注套保 机会,操作上暂时观望。 (白糖) | 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月10日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the future unloading of foreign vessels should be monitored. The overall olefin industry's operating rate has increased, but it is expected to decline due to the planned maintenance of Ningbo Fude. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2090 in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2053 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 642135 lots, down 81461 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 161954 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8722, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 17 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 242 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 75 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.28 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is - 2.58 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 361500 tons, down 12200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.88%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.97%, unchanged; the olefin operating rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.89%, down 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.5%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.51%, down 1.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons (2.40% MoM), and the pending orders are 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons (13.45% MoM). The total port inventory is 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons. As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 91.78%, up 0.88% MoM [3].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/10 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,724.00 | -8.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,434.00 | -28.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 630,101.00 | -6 ...

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：12月10日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.86%，基差走强至-19元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4612元/吨，较前一交易日下跌18元/吨。成本端布伦特原油跌倒62美元附近，OPEC+会议维持26年1 季度暂停增产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.92天，环比增加0.14天。 主力动向：空头主力减仓 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，库存格局逐步转向累库。下游聚酯开工高位小幅下降，预计终端需求将进一步转弱； PTA加工费再次回落至150元附近，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月10日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601上涨 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

Industry Investment Rating - Kenanga Research maintains a "neutral" view on the plantation sector [7] Core View - The report presents overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, international supply - demand data from USDA reports, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically. These factors collectively influence the investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural commodity market [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premiums for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions will have widespread rainfall, which is beneficial for crop growth. Argentina's main soybean - producing areas have good soil moisture, but some areas face drought risks [4] International Supply - Demand - USDA estimates for the 2025/26 palm oil season show a downward revision in production, ending stocks, and exports compared to last month. Kenanga Research expects edible oil supply to improve in 2026 but remain tight overall. Felda and FGV will resume operations in their palm oil plantations in Terengganu. USDA's December oilseed report provides data on soybean ending stocks, production, and other supply - demand indicators for the US, Brazil, and Argentina. Other supply - demand data for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are also presented, along with export forecasts for Brazil and Argentina [6][7][9] Domestic Market Transactions - On December 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased, with changes in spot and far - month basis trading volumes. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased. The national pork supply was sufficient in November, and the price decreased slightly [15] Macroeconomic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December and January is high. ADP's weekly employment report shows an average increase in private - sector jobs. US economic indicators such as the NFIB small - business confidence index, JOLTs job openings, and the Conference Board leading index are presented, along with API crude oil inventory data [17] Domestic News - On December 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [19] Fund Flow - On December 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 16.149 billion yuan, with outflows in commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [21] Arbitrage Tracking - No specific content provided in the given text [22]

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apple and red date is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current price reflects the expectations of the storage volume and structure. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. The market is in a off - season, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] - For red dates, if the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9,465 yuan/ton, a change of - 41 yuan/ton or - 0.43% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1265 in Qixia and AP05 - 1065 in Luochuan both increased by 41 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The mainstream price of stored late Fuji remains stable. In some western producing areas, the price of below - average goods is slightly weak. The overall transaction is on - demand, and the shipment is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [2][3] - The new - season late Fuji storage in the producing areas has ended, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than the same period last year. The merchants are generally optimistic. The inventory decreased last week, and the overall shipment is average [3] - The consumption is mainly on - demand due to the seasonal off - season, and the trading atmosphere is still light. The increasing supply of citrus fruits squeezes the apple sales space, and the sentiment in the sales areas is relatively pessimistic [3] Market Analysis - The apple futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The trading sentiment in the producing areas is not high, and the shipment of inventory goods is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [3] Strategy - Be neutral. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the large - scale stocking for the Christmas and New Year holidays has not started this week, and the market is still in an off - season. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,235 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton or + 0.60% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 635 decreased by 55 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is nearing completion, with little remaining supply in each producing area. High - quality goods have a tail - end price increase trend. The acquisition of raw materials in the producing areas is based on quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price [6][7] - On December 8, the trading in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market was mainly of new goods. After the new - season harvest, the goods gradually returned to the factory for processing. With the clear procurement cost of merchants at the end of the acquisition in the producing areas, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the price was strong [7] - In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 trucks of goods arrived. The market supply was sufficient, and downstream merchants purchased on - demand. The morning trading was average [7] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition in each producing area is nearing completion, with little remaining supply. The raw material acquisition adheres to the principle of pricing by quality. The trading in the sales areas is mainly of new goods, and the spot price is relatively firm [8] - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is about 90% complete, and the price in the producing areas has stopped falling and stabilized, with the cost gradually becoming clear. The price in the sales areas has also stabilized. With the increasing downstream procurement, some holders have tentatively increased their quotes slightly [8] - The inventory of 36 sample points has increased significantly, and the combined inventory of the two seasons is at the highest level in recent years. The inventory pressure is large, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic [8] Strategy - Be neutral. If the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the red date price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9]