Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to a significant increase in inventory and a strengthening US dollar, leading to sell-offs [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 14, LME three-month copper closed at $9,619.00 per ton, down $41.50 or 0.43% [1][2]. - The lowest point for the contract earlier in the day was $9,575 per ton, with strong technical support around the 100-day moving average of $9,565 [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory totaled 109,625 tons, with a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - Over 26,000 tons of copper inventory, originally set to exit the LME system from Asia, have been re-registered, allowing them to be traded again [3]. - The increase in LME copper supply has widened the spot/three-month contract discount to $50 per ton, the highest level since April 23 [5]. Group 3: Trade Policies and Impacts - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products effective August 1, which traders believe may have influenced the cancellation of warehouse receipts that were likely intended for the US before the tariff took effect [3][4]. - The short time frame from the announcement to the tariff deadline is insufficient for transporting metals from Asia [4]. Group 4: Import and Export Data - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2.633 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [5]. - In contrast, China's imports of copper concentrate increased by 6.4% year-on-year, totaling 1.4754 million tons in the first half of the year [6]. - China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June were 489,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2.918 million tons for the first half of the year, down 8% year-on-year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market is affected by the US's 50% tariff on copper imports. The US copper inventory is high, and the rigid import demand in the second half of the year is low. The trade structure of South American countries may be pressured, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] - The aluminum supply increases slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas markets. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2] - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are average. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7] - The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with supply cuts, mainly rigid demand, and expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] - The lead price回调s slightly. The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] - The industrial silicon production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounds. The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with the downward inflection point depending on inventory accumulation [21] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 50, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1578 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 625 tons [1] - **Market Impact**: Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports led to a 16% increase in COMEX copper. The US has filled its annual rigid import gap, and the tariff impact on CL spread may not be fully priced. The trade structure of South American countries may change, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price fluctuated slightly, the social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 4550 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the zinc price fluctuated, the social inventory increased by 0.05 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 350 tons [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase, the domestic demand is seasonally weak, the overseas demand is weak but there is a short - squeeze risk, and the recommended strategies are shorting, long - short between domestic and overseas, and positive spreads between months [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained stable, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1550 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 1440 tons [7] - **Market Situation**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the LME premium is slightly stronger, and the short - term fundamentals are average [7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 50 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Situation**: The supply has been cut since late May, the demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the lead price decreased slightly, the social inventory increased by 1846 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3000 tons [12][23] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot import and export earnings fluctuated, the LME inventory decreased by 45 tons, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 20 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan and 553 in East China and Tianjin changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 315 [19] - **Market Situation**: The production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices increased slightly, the basis of the main and near - month contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1588 [21] - **Market Situation**: The futures price rebounds, the short - term supply and demand are strong, the social inventory pressure accumulates, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [21]

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper**: The short - term price range is expected to be between 77,300 and 79,000, and the medium - term range is 60,000 - 90,000. A volatile trading strategy is recommended. Trump's proposed 50% tariff on US copper imports, supply changes in Chile and Indonesia, weak growth in Chinese home air - conditioner exports, and inventory increases are the main influencing factors. The high tariff may negatively impact real demand in the US [1][2]. Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Protein Meal**: In the short term, the fluctuation of soybean meal is smaller than that of soybean oil. The soybean meal 2509 contract is expected to find a bottom in the range of [2,875, 3,100]. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850. The weather during the growing season of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, trade policies, and the results of relevant hearings are the key factors affecting the market [3][5]. Petroleum Asphalt - In the short term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate and strengthen following the cost of crude oil. In the long term, the supply is on the rise, and factors such as typhoon weather in summer and insufficient project funds may affect the release of rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement of asphalt demand in August [6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Supply**: In June, Chile's copper export value was $4.67 billion, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Indonesia may relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to local economic impacts [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's home air - conditioner exports were 9.695 million units, a slight 0.1% year - on - year increase, affected by the high base last year and "rush - to - export" behavior [1]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, LME copper inventory increased by 4,625 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 2,227 tons to 21,336 tons [2]. Protein Meal - **Soybean**: From late May to now, the soil moisture of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds has been good. As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of 25/26 US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. Anec expects sufficient soybean arrivals in South America in July and August, and the trend of imported soybean inventory accumulation is gradually ending [3][4]. - **Rapeseed**: The drought in Canadian new - crop rapeseeds in late June has recently improved. As of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseeds in Alberta has recovered from 45% to 58%. The development progress of oilseed crops and annual forage crops in Saskatchewan is still slower than normal but earlier than last year [4]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Supply**: As of July 8, the production profit of asphalt in Shandong independent refineries was - 543.66 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 95.61 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt refinery operating rate was 32.7%, a weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point. The domestic weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,000 tons. In the first six months of this year, China's cumulative asphalt production was 13.781 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for asphalt is weak, mainly restricted by capital shortages and heavy rainfall in the South. The demand in the North is relatively stable. After the plum - rain season in East and South China in July, it theoretically enters the peak demand season, but some northern regions are still affected by rainfall. The social inventory depletion has slowed down [7]. - **Cost**: The extension of the US tariff negotiation period and Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have provided upward momentum for oil prices. In summer, the peak driving season arrives, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries return to normal, and US shale oil production has declined for ten consecutive weeks, providing some support for oil prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The expected tariff rate increase on US copper imports to 50% may be implemented by the end of July. The logic of short - squeezing on LME copper and the US restocking logic are weakening. The short - term trading driver is the US copper tariff rate and implementation time. With the expectation of a 50% tariff rate and implementation by the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired through "rising COMEX copper price + falling LME copper price". The main contract is expected to trade between 76,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain slightly oversupplied from July to August. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - fluctuations, the price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract focusing on the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The disk is expected to be mainly in a weak - shock state, with the main contract expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,000 [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a period of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock. In a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. The short - term zinc price is weakening, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 23,000 [5]. Nickel - Macro - policy uncertainty increases, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. With large short - term macro - fluctuations, it is recommended to hold previous high - level short positions [11]. Stainless Steel - There is macro - uncertainty, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, the supply - side production reduction is less than expected, and the demand is weak. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate, with the main contract expected to trade between 12,500 - 13,000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The market is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 60,000 - 65,000 [17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.76% to 79,190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 37.25% to 1,031 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 465.03 yuan/ton to - 679 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.29% to 20,660 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in different regions increased slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc price increased by 0.54% to 22,160 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 338.89 yuan/ton to - 1,228 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 2.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% [5]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.78% to 120,150 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel increased by 0.88% to 121,953 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the reported period was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.67% to 265,000 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 350.00% to - 20.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price remained at 802 yuan/nickel point [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 12.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.64% to 63,300 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price decreased by 0.09% to 57,420 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance state. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - The methanol market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is difficult for the price to have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The domestic urea supply and demand situation is acceptable, with support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish mindset is recommended for the medium - term, and a neutral mindset for short - term operations [9][11]. - The PVC market is expected to face strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. The price will still face pressure in the future [13]. - The styrene price is expected to fluctuate downward. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN may recover [16]. - The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [19]. - The polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [20]. - The PX market is expected to continue inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - The PTA market will see a slight inventory reduction in July, and the processing fee has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - The ethylene glycol market has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.11, or 0.16%, to $68.29; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.15, or 0.21%, to $70.18; INE main crude oil futures rose 9.00 yuan, or 1.76%, to 519.7 yuan [2]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a 1.69% increase; SPR replenished 0.24 million barrels to 403.00 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 229.47 million barrels, a 1.15% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 102.80 million barrels, a 0.80% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 21.83 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.91 million barrels to 44.24 million barrels, a 2.01% decrease [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 17 yuan/ton, with a basis of +13 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Iranian plants restarted, and the overseas operating rate returned to a medium - high level. The demand side saw a decline in port olefin load, and the traditional demand off - season led to a decline in operating rate. The methanol spot valuation is still high, and the upside space is limited in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term domestic operating rate declined, and the supply pressure eased. The demand for compound fertilizers continued to decline, but is expected to pick up with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Exports are still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. Tire operating rates are at a neutral level, and inventory pressure exists [9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 69 yuan to 4863 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4790 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 173 (- 49) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 95 (+12) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, maintenance increased, but production remained at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant startups in the short term. Downstream demand is weak compared to previous years and is entering the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken in July due to potential anti - dumping measures from India. The cost - side support is expected to weaken [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost - side pure benzene operating rate increased, and supply was abundant. The styrene operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased. In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil oscillated downward. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories continued to increase at a high level, and demand from the agricultural film sector was weak [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene supply is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates declined seasonally. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6724 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 850 dollars, the basis was 285 yuan (- 3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan (- 20) [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 81%, and the Asian operating rate increased by 1.1% to 74.1%. Some domestic plants reduced production or were under maintenance, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads. PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. In the third quarter, due to the startup of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4718 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was 36 yuan (- 55), and the 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (- 30) [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. Some plants adjusted their loads. Downstream operating rates declined, and terminal demand weakened. In July, inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and the processing fee has support [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 16 yuan to 4283 yuan, the East China spot price rose 2 yuan to 4347 yuan, the basis was 71 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan (- 2) [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 66.5%. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or restarted. Downstream operating rates declined, and port inventories increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and inventory reduction is expected to slow down [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].