Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Core View PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure; PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. The market is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, with limited expected rebound space [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 closing prices all declined, with L15 and PP15 spreads also decreasing. Spot prices of some products like East China PP filament and North China LDPE decreased, while North China LL basis and East China pp basis increased [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.80%, PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Methanol Industry Core View The inland market has increasing output, and marginal devices are in loss. The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory and increased Iranian shipments. The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, and the inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved before Iranian gas restrictions [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices increased slightly, while MA15 spread decreased. Some regional spot prices changed slightly, and regional spreads also changed [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, port inventory increased by 3.80%, and social inventory increased by 2.10%. Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased slightly, while downstream - outer - purchased MTO装置开工率 decreased by 2.38% [4]. Group 3: Ester Industry Chain Core View PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose in the future, and its rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol will see inventory accumulation, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber supply is high, and demand is weak. Bottle - chip supply - demand is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil increased, while prices of some downstream polyester products decreased. PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory increased by 10.7%. Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased, PTA开工率 decreased slightly, and polyester综合开工率 decreased by 0.9% [7]. Group 4: Crude Oil Industry Core View The continuous attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions have increased concerns about crude oil supply, which has boosted oil prices in the short term. However, under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. Short - term Brent crude oil may fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Product Price and Spread**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and their M1 - M3 spreads also increased [9]. - **Crack Spread**: Some crack spreads such as US gasoline and European gasoline changed, with US diesel and Singapore diesel crack spreads increasing significantly [9]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Industry Core View Supply - side factors support rubber prices, but overall demand is weak. The market is expected to enter range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of major producing areas and macro - level changes [10]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased slightly, and the full - latex basis increased. Some raw material prices changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed. Tire开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel decreased slightly, and October domestic tire production decreased [10]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded - area inventory and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [10]. Group 6: Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Core View Pure benzene supply pressure is large, and its fundamentals are weak. Short - term BZ2603 may fluctuate or be short - biased at high levels. Styrene supply - demand has improved, and it may oscillate and repair in the short term, but its upward space is limited [11]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil changed, and prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also changed. Spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, and Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率 changed. Styrene开工率 increased, and downstream ABS开工率 increased slightly [11]. Group 7: LPG Industry Core View No clear overall view is mentioned in the text, mainly presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [13]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 decreased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased slightly, port inventory decreased by 5.66%, and port storage - capacity ratio decreased. Upstream - main refinery开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream - PDH开工率 decreased by 4.92% [13]. Group 8: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Core View Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound. Glass has short - term rigid - demand support, but in the medium - and long - term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, glass and soda ash futures prices decreased slightly, and their basis increased [15]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72%, and weekly production decreased by 1.71%. Float - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Real - Estate Data**: Glass warehouse inventory increased, and some real - estate data such as new - construction area and sales area changed [15]. Group 9: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Core View Caustic soda supply - demand has pressure, and its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [16]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of PVC and caustic soda - related products decreased slightly, and their basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Caustic soda and PVC inventory decreased slightly. Caustic soda and PVC开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC also changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the trend judgments and fundamental data of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, on November 19, 2025. These judgments are based on factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. Yesterday, the prices of domestic and foreign gold futures showed different trends, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased [6]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures also had different performances, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased significantly [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The increase in domestic and foreign inventories has put pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0. Peru's copper production increased in September, while China's copper product output in October decreased [10][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures declined, and LME zinc inventory increased [13][14]. - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory limits the price decline. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures fell, and both domestic and LME lead inventories decreased [17]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures decreased slightly, and the inventory of Shanghai tin decreased [20]. - **Aluminum**: It has slightly stabilized. The trend strength is 0. The price of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of LME aluminum decreased [23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of alumina decreased, and the inventory data showed different trends [23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign nickel futures declined, and some nickel - related news affected the market [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength is 0. The price of stainless - steel futures decreased, and the market was affected by multiple factors [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It may have a short - term correction. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of carbonate lithium futures decreased, and the inventory of warehouse receipts decreased [32][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Organic silicon may cut production to support prices in the future. The trend strength is 0. The price of industrial silicon futures decreased, and the inventory of industrial silicon decreased [37][38]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a weak shock pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The price of polysilicon futures decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and the prices of imported and domestic iron ores decreased [41]. - **Rebar**: It is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of rebar futures increased, and the inventory of rebar decreased [44][45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of hot - rolled coil futures increased slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [45]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the alloys are making up for the decline. The trend strength of both is - 1. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures decreased, and the price differences showed different trends [51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and the prices of spot coking coal and coke were stable [55]. - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock. The trend strength is 0. The prices of log futures showed different trends, and the inventory data was not provided [57][58]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Both are in a single - sided shock market, and it is not recommended to chase high. The trend strength is not provided. The prices of para - xylene and PTA futures decreased [62][64]. - **MEG**: There is still supply pressure, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The price of MEG futures decreased [62][64]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully reflected, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has stabilized, and soybean oil is in a relatively strong shock. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Both are in an adjustment shock. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock operation. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend strength is not provided [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be affected by the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices. Zinc prices are likely to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with overseas supply being tight and domestic production cuts and demand off - season coexisting. Industrial silicon is expected to run at a high level, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern will improve with the implementation of new energy - consumption standards. Refined tin prices will remain high due to tight global supply, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the supply - demand balance in 2026 [1][3][4][5][6][9][10][12][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US government shutdown ended, and Fed officials made hawkish remarks. Supply - wise, global copper supply is tight, with an increase in domestic port inventory and a rise in copper concentrate TC. Demand - side, the开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined in October, and copper rod production decreased. Copper bar demand is weak. Inventory shows regional differentiation, with LME and SHFE inventories low and COMEX inventory increasing significantly [1][2]. - **Outlook**: Negative factors such as the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices will affect copper prices [3]. Zinc - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy and a suggestion to sell a wide - straddle option combination [4]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is divided, and the US government shutdown risk is alleviated. Supply - wise, global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with overseas production differentiation and domestic supply also showing signs of tightness. Demand shows an "external strong, internal weak" pattern. Inventory is differentiated, with LME zinc inventory at a historical low and SHFE zinc inventory increasing [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upside in the domestic market is limited due to weak demand [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 9000 - 9100, and mid - term view is "range operation" in the range of 8800 - 9300, with a bullish strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production decreased year - on - year. Demand from polysilicon increased. Inventory is at a 7 - year high, but the strong polysilicon price boosts industrial silicon prices [6]. Polysilicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 52,500 - 54,000, and mid - term view is "range fluctuation" in the range of 50,000 - 60,000, with a bullish strategy [7]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production increased year - on - year. Demand from silicon wafers increased significantly. Inventory is stable. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [7][9]. Refined Tin - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 290,000 - 295,000, and mid - term view is "high - level oscillation" in the range of 270,000 - 300,000, with a strategy to sell SN2512 - P - 250000 [10]. - **Core Logic**: Global tin supply is tight due to the complex resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Processing fees are at a low level, indicating tight domestic supply. Inventory is at a certain level, and the ore end supports tin prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "strong operation" in the range of 94,000 - 98,000, and mid - term view is "oscillation and upward" in the range of 80,000 - 100,000, with a bullish strategy [11][12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price has reached a new high. In October, production increased year - on - year, and inventory is still high. However, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve in 2026, which will drive up prices [12][13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelter processing fee continues to be low. Although the import volume from Myanmar has rebounded, the improvement in supply is limited. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low - buying strategy can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow the macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes and rises, and the futures price fluctuates. There is an arbitrage window. The supply and demand in the industrial silicon market decreased in November, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon industry cuts production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, the demand is weak, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops significantly, and the arbitrage window closes. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation in each link. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support and the inventory pressure [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and the copper price fluctuates weakly. The macro situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The downstream psychological price ceiling for copper is rising, and the spot maintains a premium. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom of the copper price. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is basically in a loose pattern, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export window is open, which may boost the domestic zinc price. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, showing a low - level shock. The spot market has regional differentiation. The price of electrolytic aluminum is affected by macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It may fluctuate between the two in the short term, and there is a risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts with the aluminum price. The cost is strongly supported, but the supply is restricted by raw material shortages. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is in a weak shock. The macro - drive and demand are insufficient, and the supply pressure remains. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to the steel mill's production cut and the nickel - iron price [15]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. The macro - expectation improves, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The nickel supply is loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 116000 - 122000. Pay attention to the macro - expectation and the Indonesian industrial policy [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market runs strongly. Driven by news and fundamentals, the price rises. The supply increases slightly, the demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market may have more games. Be cautious about chasing high prices without positions, and wait for a pull - back [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased by 0.75%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 671.90%. The import loss decreased by 1.62%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was stable [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, and 2602 - 2603 decreased, while that of 2603 - 2604 increased significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09%. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon products is stable, and the premium of Tongmei decreased by 12.50%. The basis of some products changed [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 and 2601 - 2602 increased, while others changed to different extents [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in October, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops by 1390 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage window closes [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed, with the largest change in the current - month to the first - continuous contract [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [6]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products decreased, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by 6.23%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2511 - 2512 and 2601 - 2602 changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62%, and the import volume in September increased by 26.50%. The inventory of some ports and the electrolytic copper rod's operating rate changed [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85%, and the inventory of LME and domestic zinc ingots changed [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The alumina production in October increased by 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and LME changed [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap spread of some products decreased [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in October decreased by 2.42%, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel in some regions changed, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.14%. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore changed [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, and the import and export volumes and the inventory changed [15]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel products decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased slightly. The import loss increased [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed slightly [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The inventory of SHFE, social inventory, and LME increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and other lithium products increased, and the lithium concentrate price also increased [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73%, and the inventory decreased [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 菜油表现强势 棕榈油震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨15收于4125林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.36%；棕榈油01合约跌16收于8644元/吨，跌幅0.18%； 豆油01合约涨72收于8256元/吨，涨幅0.88%；菜油01合 约涨390收于9923元/吨，涨幅4.09%；CBOT豆油主连涨 0.85收于50.48美分/磅，涨幅1.71%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约涨7收于645.7加元/吨，涨幅1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways bottoming [4] - Urea: Rebound to short [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The core driver for the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with some products facing supply surpluses during the off - season and others having potential demand improvements [2][10][15] - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply surplus and OPEC's production plans; LPG may rebound due to inventory factors; other products' trends are affected by factors such as capacity utilization, demand changes, and cost support [2][10][15] Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: Overnight, international oil prices stabilized, with WTI up 0.26%, Brent up 0.48%, and SC down 2.43%. As of November 7, the US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the off - season supply surplus and global inventory accumulation. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [10] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC expects non - OPEC regions' crude production to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. IEA predicts global oil supply growth. OPEC's November report forecasts global crude demand increments [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [445 - 460] [12] LPG - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,303 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to crude oil. The cost is weak, limiting the upside. The supply has decreased, and the demand has mixed performance. The inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4300 - 4400] [16] L - **Market Quotes**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [18][19] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the monthly spread is moving towards a positive spread. The supply is loose, and the demand has weak replenishment motivation. The oil price may decline, lacking cost support [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6800 - 6950] [20] PP - **Market Quotes**: The PP2601 closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to cost. The inventory is high, and the demand is insufficient. The oil price may continue to fall [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [24] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The V2601 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures price is at a premium, and the warehouse receipts are at a new high. The market is in a weak fundamental situation during the off - season, but the low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4500 - 4650] [28] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PXN spread is 250.3 (+11.8) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 112.0 (+5.0) dollars/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has increased production, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The cost side has a loose supply - demand pattern for crude oil [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side trade. Pay attention to expanding downstream processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6810 - 6920] [30] PTA - **Market Quotes**: TA05 is at 4,728 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,616 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,664 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side trade at low prices. Pay attention to expanding TA processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4600 - 4670] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: EG05 is at 3,942 yuan/ton, EG11 at 3,848 yuan/ton, and EG01 at 4,019 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3880 - 3960] [36] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Not specifically mentioned in a significant way [39] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price. The supply side has increased production, and the demand is average. The cost support is weak but may be stable in the fourth quarter [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Quotes**: UR05 is at 1,734 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,753 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,667 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is high, and the export has maintained a high growth rate. There are upside and downside limits [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about the risk of the price falling after rising. Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1630 - 1655] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the NG main contract closed at 4.744 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.42% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The demand increases during the heating season as the temperature drops. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply and demand and inventory have certain characteristics [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upside. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.511 - 4.688] [48] Asphalt - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly driven by crude oil. The cost support weakens as the oil price falls. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has decreased [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [52]