Group 1 - The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary consensus on a trade framework, including a temporary pause on rare earth export controls, providing a more stable negotiation basis for upcoming leader meetings [1] - Market expectations suggest that some tariffs and restrictions may ease, leading to a rise in risk assets such as stocks and crude oil [1] - The U.S. September CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, indicating a continued trend of slowing inflation, which enhances expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in its October meeting [1] Group 2 - The market is shifting focus towards central bank actions, with upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and other central banks expected to influence the direction of the dollar and global assets [1] - If Fed Chair Powell hints at a faster easing path, the dollar may continue to decline, while a contrary signal could trigger adjustments in risk assets [1] - Gold prices have retreated from recent highs due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking by some bulls, with spot gold dropping to around $4,072, nearly 1.2% lower than last week's peak [1] Group 3 - The dollar index remains volatile, with the USD/JPY breaking the 153 mark, indicating a recovery in risk appetite that pressures the yen [2] - The Canadian central bank's upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, limiting the rebound potential of the Canadian dollar [2] - U.S. stock futures have risen by approximately 0.6%-1.1% in early European trading, driven by optimism from trade developments and rate cut expectations, suggesting further upside potential for the stock market [2] Group 4 - The market has transitioned from being driven by trade news to a phase of policy and capital dynamics, where the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions and subsequent macro data will determine the sustainability of market trends [3] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in a high-volatility environment, closely monitoring capital flows and volatility changes to seize trading opportunities arising from shifts in market sentiment [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

Inflation Data - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1% and previous 2.9%[3] - The month-on-month CPI is 0.3%, matching the expected and previous values of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year is also 3.0%, below the expected 3.1% and the previous 3.1%[3] Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected CPI data has increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - Following the data release, U.S. stock indices rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar saw slight increases[3] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices rose significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%, up from 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Gasoline prices surged by 4.1%, contributing approximately one-third to the overall CPI increase[4] - Food CPI month-on-month decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a weakening impact from tariffs[4] Core Components - Core goods prices showed slight fluctuations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3%[5] - Used car prices fell significantly by 0.4%, while new car prices increased by 0.2%[5] - Housing prices remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.4%[5] Economic Outlook - The moderate inflation performance creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to consider easing monetary policy[5] - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include the FOMC meeting on October 29 and the Q3 GDP release on October 30[5]

降息充分定价，贵金属震荡属性增加 摘 要： 中美经贸再度开启谈判议程，避险情绪略有降低，黄金在避险 情绪减弱的推动下，略有下行，目前为止震荡特征明显。目前美国 政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步获得， 但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降息已经 有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政府的内 部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。美国 9 月 CPI 同 比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后，市场已经完全消化美联储 年内剩余时间两次降息 25 个基点的预期。国家主席习近平将于 10 月 30 日至 11 月 1 日赴韩国庆州出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导 人非正式会议并对韩国进行国事访问。就 APEC 会议期间中美元首 是否举行会晤相关问题，外交部发言人郭嘉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were strong, erasing all losses since October due to US sanctions on Russia. In the current market, US sanctions on Russia have reduced expectations of a broader supply, but the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early November may lead to increased production, and US oil storage plans may also increase supply, which could suppress oil prices. Financially, the market expects interest rate cuts after the release of US September CPI data, which may relieve macro - economic pressure. Politically, the change in US policy towards Russia may boost oil prices in the short - term, but its long - term impact is uncertain. Overall, oil prices may have limited upside in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [13][73]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia, erasing losses since October. This week, oil prices may remain strong, but with limited upside due to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage plans. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 495 yuan/barrel, make short - term long positions cautiously, and take short positions on rallies in the long - term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, reducing market expectations of a broader supply and causing oil prices to rise. The deterioration of US - Russia relations may also prevent an effective cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the short - term, which also contributed to the rise in oil prices [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Inflation Data**: In September, US inflation data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI annual rate was 3%, and the core CPI also showed a downward trend, which boosted market confidence and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [24]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The release of inflation data increased market expectations of interest rate cuts in the remaining two FOMC meetings this year and next year [24]. - **Labor Market**: The suspension of ADP providing employment data to the Fed may increase concerns about the US labor market [32]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The cancellation of the planned US - Russia meeting and new sanctions on Russian oil exports, as well as US military actions near Venezuela, may lead to higher oil prices due to geopolitical risks [37]. 3.3.2 Supply Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ countries generally increased production in September, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase of 248 thousand barrels per day [41]. - **US Sanctions**: US sanctions on Russia may affect oil supply. - **Other Producers**: Iran and Iraq also increased production, while the US had a small production cut [46][49]. 3.3.3 Demand Factors - **Weak Consumption**: Consumption performance remained weak, and the manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve [52][56]. - **Slowing Refining**: The production of refined oil products continued to slow down [62]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased in the week ending October 22, which supported oil prices [63]. - **Refined Oil Inventory**: US refined oil inventories decreased, but due to low refinery utilization and the off - season of consumption, it was difficult to boost oil prices [67]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, oil prices may have some upside due to the deterioration of US - Russia relations, but considering the OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage needs, the upside is limited, and oil prices are under pressure in the long - term [73].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. September CPI growth rate is lower than expected, which may lead the market to continue on a rate cut path, supporting bullish trends in precious and industrial metals [1] Industrial Metals - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, supply-side disruptions, particularly rising resource nationalism in mining, are increasing the upstream-downstream game, and combined with historically low inventory levels, this provides strong support for prices [1] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to improve macro sentiment, potentially enhancing domestic and international demand expectations, which is favorable for industrial metal prices [1] - However, recent U.S.-China negotiations may increase price volatility [1] Precious Metals - In the medium to long term, under the restructuring of the global monetary system, gold is expected to continue to show performance opportunities [1] ETF Overview - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering major sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. Gold prices may fluctuate significantly in the short - term [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin are recommended to be bought at low prices, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, and alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, steel prices are expected to rise with the support of macro - factors, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - In the agricultural products market, the situation varies by product. For example, soybeans are short - term bullish, while corn is expected to be weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, and some are recommended for short - selling or waiting and seeing [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold market is in a weak oscillation. Domestic gold ETFs are flowing in, while overseas ETFs are reducing positions. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [1]. - **Silver**: Inventory changes vary in different markets. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose on Friday. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the price of alumina is expected to be volatile in the short - term [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot demand is high, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - **Polysilicon**: For different contracts, different trading strategies are recommended, such as buying at low prices for the 12 - month and later contracts [3]. - **Tin**: Prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy at low prices [3][4]. 3.3 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is neutral to bullish, and prices are expected to rise with macro - support [5]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and the domestic situation depends on the Sino - US tariff policy [6][7]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to be weak with the pressure of new crop listing [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are weak, and the P structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [7]. - **Sugar**: It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Pigs**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to short - sell due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price provides support, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract and long - buy the 05 contract for reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position reverse arbitrage [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is recommended to wait and see due to large supply in Shandong [10].

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 66%, has led to a significant influx of retail investors, causing the UK Royal Mint's website to crash due to overwhelming traffic [1][3] - The demand for gold has been characterized by irrational behavior, with retail and institutional investors driving the buy-sell ratio to 10:1, far exceeding the normal 3:1 ratio [3][10] - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been strategically increasing their gold reserves, contributing to market stability [4] Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and expectations of interest rate cuts have lowered the holding costs of gold, further driving investment towards it as a safe haven [6][8] - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have reinforced gold's appeal, although the price surge is also attributed to a self-reinforcing cycle of buying behavior [8][10] - The rapid price increase has led to a technical correction, with profit-taking observed as gold approached its peak, indicating a potential for volatility in the market [8][12] Investor Behavior - The current gold market frenzy reflects a collective anxiety in response to global economic uncertainties, with both central banks and retail investors seeking a "safe anchor" [10][12] - The phenomenon of retail investors overwhelming the Royal Mint's website highlights the risks of herd behavior in investment decisions, particularly in the context of information asymmetry [10][12] - The volatility in gold prices serves as a reminder that supply and demand fundamentally dictate market behavior, and that rational assessment of risk is crucial for investors [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is warming up after the repair of risk - aversion sentiment. With the adjustment of precious metals recently, many non - ferrous varieties have received support from capital inflows and题材, showing a recovery. Attention should be paid to the rotation and resonance of the sector. [12] - Policy expectations remain positive in the long - term. The 14th Five - Year Plan in China focuses on the real economy, and non - ferrous metals, as important raw material providers, will continue to be in the spotlight. [10] - Economic data in China shows both resilience and pressure. While the real estate sector is under pressure, the manufacturing sector performs well. There is also an increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: Sino - US trade relations have eased, risk preference has recovered, and the non - ferrous metals sector has shown a recovery under the leadership of copper. Policy expectations are positive, economic data shows a mixed picture, and interest - rate cut expectations are strengthening. [10][11] - **Variety - specific analysis**: - **Copper**: The US market's siphon effect causes a structural contradiction in global copper inventories. Supply constraints are increasing, while demand is expected to enter the peak season. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - arbitrage opportunity between the 2512 and 2601 contracts. [3][13] - **Aluminum industry chain**: For aluminum, aluminum oxide, and recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach is recommended. Buy out - of - the - money options for protection. [5] - **Tin**: The market is in a short - term bullish state. Pay attention to the impact of other non - ferrous varieties, the situation of the ore end, and macro - factors. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options. [5] - **Zinc**: The rebound is volatile. The upper pressure is around 22,500 - 22,600, and the lower support is around 21,700 - 21,800. Buy a bull spread at low levels or continue to sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - **Lead**: The price is in a short - term bullish consolidation. The lower support is 17,300 - 17,500, and the upper pressure is 17,800 - 18,000. A covered - call strategy is recommended. [6] - **Nickel and stainless steel**: For nickel, a slightly bullish approach at low levels is recommended. Stainless steel is in a range - bound state. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures weekly performance**: Copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton, zinc rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton, aluminum rose 1.12% to 21,225 yuan/ton, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot prices and changes**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 86,530 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 0.36%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price was 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, etc. [22] 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Track data such as exchange copper inventories, SMM social copper inventories, copper concentrate smelting fees, etc. [23][24] - **Zinc**: Track zinc inventories, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot prices, etc. [25][26] - **Aluminum**: Track data related to aluminum inventories, prices, production capacity, etc. [34][36] - **Aluminum oxide**: Track spot prices, port inventories, production capacity, and import data. [37][38] - **Tin**: Track prices, inventories, and tin concentrate processing fees. [43][44] - **Lead**: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and processing fees. [50][51] - **Nickel**: Track futures inventories, LME inventories, and spot premiums. [57][58] - **Stainless steel**: Track warehouse receipts, inventories, and production data. [62][63] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2512 and 2601 contracts due to supply - side force majeure. [17] - **Aluminum oxide**: Consider the reverse - arbitrage between the 2502 and 2509 contracts as the near - strong and far - weak structure returns. [17] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: The implied volatility of copper options is high. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. [4] - **Zinc**: Buy a bull spread or sell out - of - the - money put options. [6] - **Aluminum**: Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. [5]

Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to preliminary consensus on several key economic issues, indicating a potential easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]