氯碱日报 | 2025-12-05 液氯价格有支撑，烧碱负荷不减 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4500元/吨（-41）；华东基差-40元/吨（+21）;华南基差-20元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4480元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+25）；电石利润-25元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2140元/吨（-25）；山东32%液碱基差141元/吨（+25）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东5 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The nickel market has a supply surplus and high inventories, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market has low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and stainless - steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,870 yuan/ton and closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 103,322 (-9,126) lots, and the open interest was 118,041 (-577) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a weak oscillation trend. After the recent macro - sentiment market ended, the fundamentals remained in a surplus situation, and the nickel price entered a narrow oscillation range [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, and the prices were weakly stable. The market was basically in a situation of having prices but no goods, waiting for new tenders from mines. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. Downstream iron plants were in a loss, and had a price - pressing mentality when purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants planned to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium went to +25, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,096 (+2,501) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] - **Strategy** - With high inventories and a continuous supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy for single - side trading is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless - steel opened at 12,465 yuan/ton and closed at 12,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 84,742 (+4,381) lots, and the open interest was 96,076 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless - steel showed a slight downward oscillation trend, performing weakly. Caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, both long and short sides lacked a clear direction, and market trading willingness was low [3] - After several days of small rebounds, the stainless - steel spot market returned to normal, with stable spot quotes and a few cases of selling at a discount. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 881.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is basically stable. After the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with increasing production, declining consumption, and rising inventory. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened and closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton ( - 0.50%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2601 main contract was 193,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,228 lots, an increase of 336 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 4 was 558,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to rise this week, with the mainstream price range at 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton, about 450 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 57,270 yuan/ton and closing at 56,915 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,653 lots, and the trading volume was 175,576 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the polysilicon inventory at 291,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.38%) and the silicon wafer inventory at 21.30 GW (a month - on - month change of 9.23%). The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 7.50%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.95 GW (a month - on - month change of - 0.58%) [4] - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. In November, the production in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 每日报告 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | ...

【期现】 截至12月4日收盘，焦煤期货震荡反弹走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约+21.0(+1.96%)至 1091.5，焦煤远月2605合约+19.5(+1.67%)至1184.0，1-5价差走强至-92.5。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓 单1300元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+208.5元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1205元/吨(对标)，环 比+0.0元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+113.5元/吨。焦煤期货低位震荡，山西煤焦现货继续下跌，蒙煤现货报价企 稳。 【供给】 截至12月4日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量64.5万吨/日，周环比+0.8万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.6万吨/日，周环比+0.3万吨/日，总产量为111.1万吨/日，周环比+1.1万吨/日。 截至12月4日，日均铁水产量232.30万吨/日，环比-2.38万吨/日；高炉开工率80.16%，环比-0.93%；高炉 炼铁产能利用率87.08%，环比-0.89%；钢厂盈利率36.36%，环比+1.3%。 【库存】 截至12月4日，焦煤总库存(矿山+洗煤厂+焦化厂+钢厂+16港+口岸)周环比+56.0至3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The night - session of protein meal showed a weak and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, but China's suspension of five Brazilian exporters' qualifications has raised concerns about South American supply stability. US soybean export sales are still slow, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high - level bean meal inventory restricting price upside. [3] - The night - session of oils and fats showed a weak performance. Palm oil production areas are in the rainy season. Although palm oil exports have slowed down, the production increase is lower than expected. The MPOB monthly report is imminent, and the palm oil inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in November, with a possible inventory inflection point in December, limiting the upside space. For rapeseed oil, the arrival of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage expectation, potentially suppressing its price. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, spreads, and price - ratio spreads of various varieties such as soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are presented. For example, the soybean oil main contract's previous day's closing price was 8254, with a price change of - 32 and a price change percentage of - 0.39%. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4118 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 19 and a price change percentage of 0.46%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Spot prices, price change percentages, spot basis, and spot spreads of domestic products are given. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8520, with a price change percentage of - 0.35%, and the spot basis is 266. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The import and crushing profits of various products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds are presented. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 537. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products like soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 18,269. [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Brazil's expected export volumes in December are 281 million tons of soybeans, 133 million tons of soybean meal, and 499 million tons of corn. Canada's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to increase by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. [3]