期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20355 | 40 | -325 | 225 | -265 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20345 | - | - | l | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2567 | -2 | 20 | 82 | -101 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 117377 | -19256 | -18225 | -18597 | -1011 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 254015 | 3930 | 55392 | 49958 | 71086 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 18997 | -9759 | 2000 ...

2025 年 06 月 26 日 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收跌，连粕偏弱运行 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏空，盘面调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4169 -66（-1.56%） | 4160 -26（-0.62%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2993 -36（-1.19%） | 2980 -29 （-0.96%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | -18.75（-1.81%） 1018.25 | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 290.4 -4.6（-1.56%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2920～2930， 较昨-30或-10； 80， 持平； 8-9月M2509+0/+30/+60， 平； 10-1月M2601+90/ ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低位震荡，现货市场商谈转淡，现货基差略走强。贸易商商谈为主，本周及下周货主流在09+270附近 成交，个别略低在09+265附近，价格商谈区间在5030~5065附近。7月中在09+260~265有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+269。中 性 6、预期：伊以停火，油价暴跌，PTA期货盘面跟随成本端下跌，供需结构上，PTA自身基本面虽环比转弱，但并未累库，预计短 期内PTA现货价格仍跟随成本端偏弱震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注聚酯负荷波动。 2、基差：现货5048，09合约基差258，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比增加0.12天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向 ...

2025 年 06 月 26 日 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单持续去化，短期偏震荡 多晶硅：继续逢高空配思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 7,555 | 70 | 130 | -360 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 504,119 | -108,367 | 52,133 | 219,964 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 306,644 | 13,217 | -11,119 | 128,260 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 30,625 | -460 | -2,745 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 146,141 | -25,828 | 51,417 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 80,1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 26 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The approval of pure benzene futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to significantly impact the pure benzene market and the broader aromatic industry chain in China [2][4]. Market Overview - Pure benzene is a crucial organic chemical raw material, with a production capacity of 32.34 million tons and a consumption volume of 29.26 million tons in 2024, accounting for 39% and 43% of global totals, respectively [4]. - China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of pure benzene, with an import volume of 4.31 million tons, leading to a dependency rate of 15% [4]. Risk Management - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options will provide companies with essential tools to hedge against price volatility, which has exceeded 30% in recent years due to various factors such as international oil prices and global economic conditions [5][6]. - Companies have previously relied on long-term contracts and dynamic inventory adjustments to manage risks, but the new futures market will offer a standardized and transparent platform for price risk management [5][6]. Production Adjustment and Profit Locking - The futures and options market will facilitate better supply-demand adjustments within the industry, helping companies stabilize production and profits amid fluctuating market conditions [6][7]. - Producers can lock in raw material prices through crude oil futures while simultaneously securing product sales prices with pure benzene futures, effectively locking in processing profits [6][7]. Enhancing Price Influence - The launch of pure benzene futures and options is expected to create a transparent and authoritative "Chinese pure benzene price," enhancing China's influence in international pricing and reducing reliance on foreign benchmarks [8]. - The establishment of a futures market will support the transition from a "coarse game" to "refined management" in the industry, aiming to position China as a pricing center for pure benzene in Asia [8].

豆粕生猪：进口成本三连降 豆粕期现齐跌 宋歌 songge@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03112006 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018625 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗宗 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 3030 | 3069 | -39.00 | -1.27% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2723 | 2747 | -24.00 | -0.87% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2993 | 3037 | -44.00 | -1.45% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月25日 | 元/吨 | 2327 | 2374 | -47.00 | -1.98% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 ...

Core Viewpoint - Israel has approved the resumption of operations at its natural gas fields, while Iran's methanol facilities may restart, leading to expectations of supply recovery that could pressure methanol futures below the 2400 level [1] Group 1 - Israel's approval for natural gas field operations is a significant development in the energy sector, potentially increasing supply [1] - The anticipated restart of Iran's methanol facilities could further enhance supply in the methanol market [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether methanol futures can rebound above the 2400 mark amid these supply recovery expectations [1]