转自：新华财经 新华财经上海7月9日电（记者 郭慕清）进入7月以来，光伏行业在"反内卷"政策驱动下迎来关键转折 点，资本也在悄然布局。 数据显示，本周光伏板块整体表现强劲，多只光伏板块ETF涨超5%。截至7月9日收盘，国晟科技、拓 日新能、亿晶光电、桂冠电力等触及涨停。3日内，涨停个股还有首航新能、弘元绿能、亚玛顿、通威 股份等；多晶硅期货也罕见涨停。 据市场消息称，已有部分玻璃企业计划7月开始减产改善供应端，减产规模预计将达到30％，以缓解行 业"内卷式"竞争。此外，7月7日晚上开始，一则"小作文"也引起业内不小震动，其主要内容涉及"硅料 收储可能会于近期落地"。所谓"收储计划"是指，由头部硅料厂商牵头并购行业其他硅料产能，核心也 是降产能。据了解，该传闻已经在5月份发酵过一次。 数据显示，光伏硅料、组件价格自2023年以来跌幅近90%。对于上述传闻，尽管部分头部企业负责人表 示，"近期消息很多，尚未得到更确切的消息。"然而受此消息刺激，7月8日，首航新能20%涨停，大全 能源、艾能聚、艾罗能源等个股涨超11%，通威股份、欧晶科技等10CM涨停。与此同时，港股市场太 阳能板块指数一度大涨超7%。 对此，华创 ...

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明。 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1297 2025年7月9日 | | | 周敏波 | 0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 車位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3150 | 3150 | 0 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 77 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 127 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3092 | 3089 | 3 | 58 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3063 | 3061 | 2 | 87 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3083 | 3080 | 3 | 67 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 30 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 314 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment value of leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope will diverge as the industry reaches a scale rate of 70% and the pig cycle becomes smoother [3]. Group 1: Industry Characteristics - The pig farming industry has a low entry threshold, with a scale standard of only 500 pigs, but it conceals high operational challenges due to the need for large-scale, low-cost production [5]. - The pig cycle is characterized by supply and demand imbalances, influenced by factors such as feed prices and disease outbreaks, leading to price volatility and affecting profitability [6][8]. - The average annual output per sow in China is significantly lower than that in the US and Denmark, indicating inefficiencies in the industry [9]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategies - Muyuan has rapidly grown to become the world's largest pig farming company, while Wens and New Hope have also achieved significant scale, with their operational paths being a focus of analysis [5][20]. - The scale of pig farming in China has increased from 41.8% in 2014 to 70.1% in 2024, with the top 20 companies accounting for 30.7% of the total output [28]. - Muyuan's self-breeding model allows for better cost control and efficiency compared to Wens and New Hope's model, which relies on partnerships with farmers [30][41]. Group 3: Financial Health and Debt Management - Muyuan and New Hope have seen their debt levels rise, with debt financing comprising about 40% and 45% of their total assets, respectively, while Wens has maintained a lower debt ratio [52][59]. - The liquidity ratios indicate that Wens has a more stable financial position compared to Muyuan and New Hope, which are under tighter liquidity conditions [61][62]. - New Hope's reliance on long-term financing for its pig farming operations has led to increasing liquidity pressures, with a net outflow of cash in recent years [64]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Wens is expected to have continued growth potential due to its financial capacity to expand, while Muyuan and New Hope may face challenges in further expansion due to liquidity constraints [66]. - The pig cycle is anticipated to smooth out over time, reducing its impact on large-scale investments and expansions in the industry [19].

21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 7月9日，国家统计局发布6月份全国CPI（居民消费价格指数）和PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）数 据。其中，CPI同比上涨0.1%，环比下降0.1%；PPI同比下降3.6%，环比下降0.4%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读表示，6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨。CPI 由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所回升影响。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。受环比下降及对 比基数变动影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力实施，部分行业供需 关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月份我国CPI同比上涨 0.1%，进入正增长区间；核心CPI涨幅创14个月新高，反映出稳增长政策逐步落地，效果逐步显现。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，CPI将呈现低位温和回升态势，PPI走出负 区间仍需时日。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年6月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。其中，城市上涨0.1%，农村下 降0.2%；食品价格下降0.3%，非食品价 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 随后，饱受冲击的格林斯潘将利率降至谷底，并在2003年6月至2004年6月间将利率维持在1%长 达一年——远超出经济复苏所需。这种超廉价的资金助长了不计后果的贷款，催生了巨大的房地 产泡沫，并最终引爆了2007-2008年的金融崩溃。 格林斯潘的继任者本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）本应预见危机，但这位普林斯顿大学博士未能察 觉抵押贷款市场日益加剧的系统性风险。他的不作为将一场本应可控的调整演变为全面的全球金 融危机——他直到雷曼兄弟破产后才介入，但为时已晚。 如今轮到鲍威尔。尽管他执掌全球最大经济体，但他是律师而非经济学家——这在美联储主席中 实属罕见。自伯恩斯以来，除G.威廉·米勒（G. William Miller）和鲍威尔外，历任美联储主席均 拥有经济学学位。 米勒同样资质不足，其美联储主席任期堪称近年最灾难的时期之一，仅517天便于1979年8月6日 被备受尊敬的保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）取代。 来源 | 金十财经 特朗普首席贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Na ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/9 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/7/4 | | | 2025/6/30 至 | 2025/7/4 | | | | 螺纹钢 ...

2025 年 7 月 9 日 "反内卷"与新一轮供给侧改革解读 | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 毛磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 张航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张驰 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 近期市场热议的新一轮"供给侧改革"，在内容上，主要以"反内卷" ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain has returned to the market spotlight after four years, with significant stock price increases across various segments, indicating a strong market recovery and investor interest [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On July 8, A-share photovoltaic concept stocks saw three stocks hit the 20% daily limit, with nearly 30 stocks rising over 10%, showcasing a rare market phenomenon [1]. - As of July 9, nearly 70 photovoltaic concept stocks had increased by over 10% in July, with 25 stocks rising over 20%, marking it as a significant month for the sector [8]. Price Trends and Influences - The recent surge in the photovoltaic industry began in late June following important government commentary on "anti-involution" and subsequent meetings [5]. - Key stocks like Xinling Electric and Yamaton have shown remarkable price increases, with Xinling Electric rising 62.45% over five trading days [9][10]. - The price of polysilicon, a critical material for photovoltaic cells, has seen a significant increase, with a recent rise of 7% and a cumulative increase of over 30% [11]. Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by policy support and rising material prices, leading to a high degree of certainty in valuation recovery [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that the industry has undergone several supply contraction cycles, suggesting potential for further price increases [17][18]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The photovoltaic sector has faced significant valuation pressures, with many companies experiencing up to 80% declines since their peak in 2021 [19][20]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of stabilization, with industry losses narrowing and potential for performance recovery among leading companies [21][22]. - The photovoltaic ETF has outperformed many individual stocks, indicating a favorable investment vehicle for exposure to the sector [23]. Broader Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is not limited to photovoltaics but extends to other sectors such as construction materials and chemicals, suggesting a broader market recovery [24][25]. - The potential for significant investment opportunities exists, particularly for leading companies and those with competitive advantages in the current market environment [26].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | 在产产能低位小幅波动，周产量环比增加，上游库存环比续降，同期仍偏 高。短期高温背景下，现实基本面仍受到约束。关注政策：一是反内卷去 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 回调做多 | 产能政策与沙河新能源汽车提货政策，二是煤制产线技改预期，从供应和 | | | | 成本两方面产生支撑。策略：政策预期提振，现实基本面约束，60 日均线 | | | | 短期承压，关注 1000 支撑。FG【1020-1050】 | | | | 部分企业降负检修，开工率和产量环比回落，但供应处于绝对高位。下游 | | | | 需求表现不佳，浮法玻璃行业处于亏损或成本线附近，原料储备相对谨慎， | | | | 光伏玻璃去产能政策下存减量预期。碱厂库存持续累积，库存总量处于历 | | 纯碱 | 反弹偏空 | 史同期偏高位置，库存去化困难。中长期成本重心下移，带动价格中枢下 | | | | 移。高供应高库存压力下，反弹偏空为主。策略：碱厂持续累库，大方向 | | | | 依旧是供需过剩格局，均线承压。SA【1170-1200】 | | | | 检修损失量季节性高点，产量 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 特种布高阶需求放量，关注建材反内卷 ——建材周专题 2025W26 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 如何看待建材反内卷的三个路径？ 基本面：水泥价格延续下跌，玻璃库存环比下降 推荐特种玻纤和非洲链，存量龙头为全年主线 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 1 建材 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 特种布高阶需求放量，关注建材反内卷 2] ——建材周专题 2025W26 [Table_Summary2] 如何看待建材反内卷的三个路径？ 反内卷的目的是缓解通缩与稳定就业的平衡。考虑当前经济压力较大，政策推进或较温和、渐 进，因此财经委提出"依法依规"、"有 ...