在促进增强居民消费能力、支持真实消费融资需求方面，中国人民银行将继续实施好创业担保贷款政 策，支持重点群体的就业创业和符合条件的小微企业吸纳就业。支持中国资本市场健康稳定发展，增加 居民的投资渠道。规范发展消费金融，满足居民多样化、个性化的消费需求。加强金融、财政政策协 同，配合落实消费领域贷款贴息等政策，降低消费领域的融资成本。在优化消费金融基础服务方面，将 持续完善多元化支付服务体系，结合重点消费场景提升支付体验，实施一次性信用修复政策，改善消费 金融环境。 在加大信贷投放的同时，中国人民银行不断降低借贷成本。数据显示，2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加 权平均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率在3.1%左右，自2018年下半年以来，分别下降2.5个和 2.6个百分点。发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜宣布，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分 点。具体而言，各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整；再贴 现利率从1.75%下调至1.5%。 邹澜还表示，今年降准降息仍有一定空间。中国人民银行将继续综合施策，促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行。比如，推动明示贷款综合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The annual work meetings of the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission indicate a stable policy direction for 2026, with a focus on enhancing existing frameworks and mechanisms to support economic growth and risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Continuity and Focus - The policy themes of stabilizing growth, promoting high-quality development, and preventing risks remain consistent, providing a key support for market expectations [2]. - The central bank emphasizes a flexible and efficient use of monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts, while ensuring that policies effectively reach the real economy [2]. - The financial "five major articles" will continue to be a focus, with an aim to optimize the financial supply structure and inject sustainable internal momentum into economic development [2]. Group 2: Risk Management - The commitment to risk prevention remains strong, with the central bank and regulatory bodies focusing on improving macro-prudential tools and managing existing risks while preventing new ones [3]. - The emphasis on preventing significant market fluctuations reflects a high level of concern regarding financial stability [3]. Group 3: Enhanced Coordination - Increased coordination among the three departments is crucial in the current economic environment, where the marginal effects of single-department actions are limited [4]. - The focus has shifted from merely expanding financial scale to optimizing structure and improving efficiency, with unified goals across different regulatory levels [4]. Group 4: Forward-Looking and Mechanized Approach - The meetings signal a stronger emphasis on the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating a shift towards long-term institutional development [6]. - Mechanisms for providing liquidity to non-bank institutions and optimizing related arrangements are being institutionalized, reflecting a transition from effective measures to systematic approaches [6]. - The overall strategy for 2026 combines continuity with innovation, aiming for a more systematic, coordinated, and forward-looking financial regulation framework [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new chair of the Federal Reserve has intensified with the emergence of Rick Rieder as a potential dark horse candidate, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [2][3]. Candidate Overview - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, has reportedly performed well in interviews with President Trump, increasing his odds of nomination significantly [4]. - Rieder's background is notable as he lacks a traditional economics PhD, similar to current chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the profile of Fed leadership [4]. Monetary Policy Stance - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient view on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and supports employment [5]. Market Predictions - Current betting markets indicate that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's odds rising sharply to second place, followed by Christopher Waller [6]. Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty. Hassett's potential continuation in his current role may narrow the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller [8]. - The political environment is tense, with recent scrutiny of the Fed's renovation project leading to increased challenges for any nominee, but Rieder is viewed as a safer option due to his market-oriented background [8]. Confirmation Process - Mnuchin expressed confidence that the Senate will not block Trump's eventual nominee, indicating a belief in a smooth confirmation process [9].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new Federal Reserve Chair has intensified with the emergence of a new candidate, Rick Rieder, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Profiles - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, has shown strong performance in interviews with President Trump, leading to an increased probability of his nomination [2][3]. - Rieder's background differs from traditional candidates as he lacks a PhD in economics, similar to the current Chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the selection process [2]. - Kevin Hassett, previously a leading candidate, may remain in his current role, narrowing the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller, who represent more conventional choices with extensive central bank experience [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Views - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient stance on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and maintains employment [3]. - The prediction market indicates that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's chances significantly rising to second place [3]. Group 3: Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the time of the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty [4]. - The political environment has become tense, particularly with the Justice Department's recent actions against the current Chair Powell, which may complicate the nomination process for any candidate [4]. - Rieder is viewed as a "safer option" for Senate confirmation due to his distance from political controversies, contrasting with traditional candidates who are more entrenched in Washington politics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's implementation of hegemonic policies has led to further deterioration of international geopolitical situations, which is favorable for gold performance. Tactical overweighting of A/H shares, US stocks, and gold is recommended, while underweighting US bonds and oil is advised [1]. Group 1: Asset Performance and Allocation Insights - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [2][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chairperson has increased market speculation regarding US monetary policy, suggesting an underweight in US bonds. The cooling labor market, declining energy prices, and slow wage growth are conducive to a decrease in endogenous inflation stickiness, allowing for more flexibility in Fed policy adjustments. The resilience of the US economy may lead to a cautious direction in Fed policy guidance, with US bond yields expected to decline moderately [2][8]. - In the context of geopolitical upheaval, gold exhibits strong resilience and safe-haven attributes, recommending an overweight in gold. The rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continued central bank purchases of gold support a long-term price floor for gold. Despite speculative inflows temporarily increasing gold volatility, the price remains resilient amid the Trump administration's hegemonic policies and the erosion of US international credibility [2][8]. Group 2: Recent Important Events Review - The uncertainty regarding the Fed chair candidates has risen again, with Trump indicating that Kevin Hassett may remain in his position. This could impact market expectations for monetary policy [6][7]. - Trump's imposition of tariffs on eight European countries and the push for the purchase of Greenland has escalated geopolitical tensions, significantly undermining US international credibility and reflecting hegemonic behavior [6][7]. Group 3: Tactical Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation to overweight A/H shares is based on multiple supportive factors for Chinese equities, including anticipated proactive economic policies and favorable monetary conditions [9]. - An underweight in US bonds is advised due to the increasing uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chairperson and the relatively low risk-return ratio compared to risk assets [9]. - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven characteristics amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [9].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 19, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026. Some futures are expected to reach new highs [1][2][4]. - It also presents a series of macro - news and their potential impacts on the futures market, such as policy changes and trade agreements [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trend Forecast - **January 19, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to oscillate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2603 is likely to oscillate strongly, and TL2603 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][41][46]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: AU2604 and AG2604 are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs. PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly [2][48][52]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Some, like CU2603 and AL2603, are expected to oscillate strongly, while others, such as ZN2603 and NI2602, may oscillate weakly [2][67][73]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Some futures, including JM2605 and FG605, are expected to oscillate strongly, and others, like RB2605 and I2605, may oscillate weakly [2][101][108]. - **January 2026 Forecast**: - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM continuous contracts) are expected to oscillate strongly. Some may reach new highs [4]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures continuous contracts are expected to oscillate strongly, with some reaching new highs [4][5]. 3.2 Macro - news and Their Impacts - **Domestic News**: - The State Council promotes consumption - boosting measures, and the SFC strengthens market regulation and promotes reform [6][7]. - The central bank adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans and cuts re - loan and re - discount rates [7][8]. - The total social electricity consumption in China in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh [9]. - **International News**: - Canada and China reach an economic and trade cooperation agreement, and the EU may impose tariffs on US goods [6][11]. - The US Federal Reserve officials express their views on interest rates and economic growth [10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading limits for silver and nickel futures contracts [13]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center revises the container shipping index (European line) futures standard contract [13]. - On January 16, international precious metal futures generally declined, while crude oil futures rose, and London base metals fell [13][14].

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Data - The USD/CAD exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 1.3640 to the current level of 1.3915, marking the highest level since December 5 [1] - Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to remain stable at 2.2% year-on-year for December 2022, with a projected month-on-month decline of 0.4% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to decrease to 2.8% from the previous 2.9% [1] - Employment data for December shows a minimal increase of 8,200 jobs, significantly lower than the previous three months' average of 181,000 jobs [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies and Trade Agreements - The Bank of Canada has reduced interest rates from a post-pandemic high of 5% to the current 2.5%, with further cuts anticipated later this year due to economic pressures [2] - A recent agreement between Canada and China involves Canada lowering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, while China lifts import restrictions on Canadian canola, potentially enhancing trade relations [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate range between 3.5% and 3.75% in the upcoming decision, which will significantly influence the USD's performance [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD rebound has surpassed key support and resistance pivot points at 1.3916 and is above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is nearing the overbought territory, indicating potential for continued price increases [4] - Key resistance for bullish market participants is targeted around 1.400 [4]

央行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合拳"；资金面明显改善，债市偏强震荡 【内容摘要】 1 月 15 日，资金面明显改善；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体上涨， 转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分 化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》】1 月 16 日出 版的第 2 期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章 《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章提出了当前和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求，强 调要以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精 神，坚持和加强党的全面领导，认真践行人民城市理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持因地 制宜、分类指导，以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以 推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线，以推进城市更新为重要抓手，大 力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市 安全底线，走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 【牢牢守 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月19日，周五——2026日央行首次利率决议： 一众发达国家中，日本率先在2026年进行利率决议。 ▲ATFX图 1月22日~23日，日本央行进行2026年首次利率决议，结果将于本周五亚盘时段公布，大概率在11： 00~13：00之间。不同于美联储"定时定点"的公布利率决议，日本央行决议结果的公布只区分"上午"或 者"下午"，比较灵活和自由。 机构认为，日本央行将按兵不动，不会采取加息政策。我们持有相同的观点：不会加息。如果日本央行 加息的话，日本的媒体总能提前获得消息并大肆宣扬。距离日本央行决议结构公布仅剩一周时间，日本 媒体仍然"默不作声"，意味着本次决议看点不多，加息概率较低。 决议结果公布当日，日本关键数据——12月核心CPI年率，将提前发布。机构预期值2.4%，远远低于前 值3%。通胀是货币政策的"锚点"。一旦日本通胀失控下降，日本央行将没有勇气继续降息。如果机构 预期兑现，日本央行当日加息的概率将无限趋近于零。 周四——美国11月PCE物价指数： 美国的PCE数据，重要性远高于日本央行的利率决议。为什么PCE的排序在决议之后？因为本次PCE数 据是11月份的补充数据， ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.040 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 52248 | -16762↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | -0.02% TF主力成交量 | 43774 | -19513↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.400 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 23651 | -10268↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 110.920 | -0.22% TL主力成交量 | 78148 | -15821↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -2.88 | 0.22↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.06 | +0.01↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.26 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.03 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.6 ...