| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.354 | 102.270 | 105.650 | 105.550 | 107.980 | 107.690 | 113.97 | 113.64 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.296 | 105.730 | 105.610 | 108.045 | 107.720 | 114.53 | 114.18 | | | 涨跌 | -0.040 | -0.026 | -0.080 | -0.060 | -0.065 | -0.030 | -0.560 | -0.540 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "sideways" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the overall view is "sideways". In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom - side consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that long - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with an overall view of "sideways". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, the necessity of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limits their short - term upward momentum. However, due to the need for a moderately loose monetary environment on the macro - economic demand side, the treasury bond futures have strong support at the bottom in the long run. The tariff threat from Trump on Friday night increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is short - term positive for treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, all treasury bond futures maintained low-level volatile consolidation. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppressed bond purchase demand, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut was not high, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limited the short-term upward momentum. However, since the demand side of the macroeconomy still requires a relatively loose monetary environment, in the medium to long term, future monetary policies tend to be loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. News-wise, Trump suddenly threatened tariffs on Friday night, increasing the uncertainty risk in the foreign trade environment, raising market risk aversion, and providing short-term positive support for treasury bond futures. Overall, in the short term, both the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom volatile consolidation [1][25] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Review - 1.1 Treasury Bond Trends: The report presents the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512, but no specific analysis of these trends is provided [5][7][9][11] 2 Treasury Bond Indicators - 2.1 Interest Rate Term Structure: The report shows the interest rate term structures of the Ministry of Finance - local bonds and ChinaBond treasury bonds, but no in - depth analysis [14][15] - 2.2 Central Bank Open - Market Operations: The report shows a chart of central bank open - market operations, but no detailed analysis [18] - 2.3 Treasury Bond Yield Curve: The report shows a chart of the treasury bond yield curve, but no specific analysis [19] - 2.4 Market Interest Rates and Policy Interest Rates: The report shows a chart of market interest rates and policy interest rates, but no in - depth analysis [23] 3 Conclusion - Treasury bond futures maintained low - level volatile consolidation. In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom volatile consolidation [25]

关税政策变化显著影响资产价格，中国出口至美国综合税率约为 30%， 虽有关税壁垒，但中美经济互补性强，预计高额关税不会完全落实，双 方将寻求新的利益平衡点。 四季度债市环境预计优于三季度，短期内贸易战担忧或支撑债市偏强走 势，10 年期国债收益率或修复至 1.7%左右，突破后有望下探至 1.65%，但央行干预或限制进一步下行。 过去三个季度债市对基本面反应不敏感，实则反映经济边际变化不大， 绝对位置较低，需深入理解经济指标与市场行为的复杂关系，不能仅依 赖表面数据。 当前中国 5%的经济增速处于历史较低水平，债市已对此做出反应，10 年期国债收益率低于 2%，未来债市进一步下行需基本面持续走弱。 四季度货币政策预计维持稳健，降息降准概率较低，但国债买卖落地将 利好债市，若贸易摩擦加剧或股市不佳，央行可能采取宽松政策救市。 政策性金融工具由中央层面主导，倾向于支持民营企业项目，但配套资 金不足限制了社融扩张，对整体经济刺激作用有限。 固收 交易贸易摩擦，债市三步走 20251011 摘要 四季度整体经济环境预计好于三季度，贸易摩擦、财政与货币政策共同 作用下，看好债市修复机会，活跃券收益率或达 1.7%，股票市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is managing significant liquidity events this week, with nearly 20 trillion yuan in funds maturing, indicating a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the market [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the PBOC has 10,210 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with 6,120 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and 4,090 billion yuan on Friday [1] - Additionally, 1,500 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits will mature on Wednesday, and 8,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos will mature on Tuesday [1] - Last week, the PBOC conducted 11,370 billion yuan in reverse repos and 11,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos, with a total of 26,633 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,263 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - CITIC Securities commented that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is expected to be around 600 billion yuan, as local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns indicate a reduction in supply pressure [1] - Excluding the impact of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos maturing, the estimated liquidity gap for October is approximately 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending may cause disturbances later in the month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the central bank's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is projected to be approximately 600 billion yuan, considering the easing supply pressure from local government bond issuance plans [1] - The estimated liquidity gap for October is around 500 billion yuan, excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos [1] - Fiscal spending is expected to be delayed, which may cause disturbances around mid-month [1]

根据《2026年及2027—2028年统一国家货币政策主要方向》，在基准情景下，俄经济将面临以下外部环 境：一是主要经济体之间的贸易摩擦将继续抑制全球需求增长。2025年进口关税在大幅上升后将有所回 落，但仍高于往年水平；二是随着"欧佩克+"国家加快增产，2025年至2026年，全球需求放缓将导致石 油市场出现过剩，油价面临下行压力。俄央行预计，2025年至2026年，俄石油出口均价将达到55美元/ 桶。2027年至2028年，俄油价将回升至60美元/桶；三是中期内外部制裁仍将持续，这将固化2022年以 来俄经济的变化趋势：经济重心转向内需、进口替代进程深化，经济结构中内需占主导地位，进出口占 国内生产总值（GDP）比重低于制裁前水平。 俄罗斯央行近日发布《2026年及2027—2028年统一国家货币政策主要方向》指出，面对由内需驱动，但 供需失衡加剧的复杂局面，俄央行将以"维护物价稳定"为核心目标。在基准情景下，预计未来整体政策 将保持长期紧缩态势，基准利率在2027年—2028年将逐步回落中性水平，意味着企业和居民需适应一段 较长时间的高成本环境。 2024年下半年以来，俄经济在强劲内需推动下保持较快增长 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continued to rise, while global stock markets saw mixed results with the Nikkei 225 leading gains. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.4%, 2.7%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields on government bonds in most countries declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude down by 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 1.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding further rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others opposed further easing [4] - The European Central Bank considered another rate cut in September but decided against it due to rising inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting federal operations and delaying the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [8] - Trade tensions with China have escalated, with the U.S. planning to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to significant sell-offs in the stock market [9] - Consumer confidence has weakened, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly dropping to 55 from 55.1, indicating concerns over employment and prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Political instability in France has increased, with the September composite PMI dropping to 48.1%, while the Eurozone's overall situation remains stable with a composite PMI of 51.2% [17] - In Japan, the new leadership under Kishi Suga is expected to implement measures to address inflation and stimulate the economy, positively impacting market sentiment [17]

Core Viewpoint - The potential dissolution of the ruling coalition between the Komeito Party and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) poses significant uncertainty for Japan's political and legislative agenda, particularly affecting the newly appointed Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's ability to push through budget proposals and legislation [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Komeito Party leader Tetsuo Saito expressed intentions to "break away from the ruling coalition framework," indicating a significant shift in Japan's political landscape [1] - The failure to reach an agreement on party funding rules during discussions between Saito and Takashi raises concerns about Komeito's support in the upcoming prime ministerial election [1] - Analysts suggest that despite losing Komeito's backing, Takashi is likely to become the next Prime Minister due to the LDP's majority in both houses of the Japanese parliament [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The breakdown of the coalition has led to increased volatility in the Japanese yen and a decline in the Nikkei 225 index futures, with market participants anticipating further fluctuations in the yen, Japanese government bonds, and the stock market amid political uncertainty [1] - Wells Fargo's Chidu Narayanan noted that the political turmoil could pressure Japanese assets, with the potential for larger fiscal expansions negatively impacting government bonds and the yen [2] - Market analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index may retreat to around 45,000 points due to the combination of political instability and external factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The political instability is expected to weaken Takashi's economic policy influence, potentially leading to policy concessions from the LDP [3] - Analysts from various firms express a cautious outlook on the Japanese stock market, indicating that while long-term prospects remain positive, short-term corrections may occur until the leadership situation stabilizes [3]