Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Following the announcement, gold and silver prices surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures rising by 6.46% to $5411.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce [1] - The meeting minutes indicated that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, with inflation levels still high [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve and suggested that the next chairman should distance the institution from political influences [3] - Powell referred to a recent Supreme Court case as potentially the most significant legal case in the Fed's 113-year history, highlighting the importance of transparency in the Fed's actions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The Middle East crisis has led to concerns about aluminum supply. Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused a significant decline in the US dollar index, and Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about overseas aluminum supply. The long - term macro factors are the main logic for the long - term rise in aluminum prices, but in the short term, aluminum prices need to be corrected [6]. - The Middle East crisis has a negative impact on alumina. The supply - demand pattern of alumina is in surplus, and the social inventory will continue to increase [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,260 yuan/ton, with a change of 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,230 yuan/ton, with a change of 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,305 yuan/ton, closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,395 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,680 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 937,111 lots, and the position was 362,833 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 777,000 tons, with a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 142,829 tons, with a change of 1,377 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 499,975 tons, with a change of - 2,275 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 28, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 308 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,741 yuan/ton, closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, with a change of 89 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,816 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 873,641 lots, and the position was 466,716 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 28, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - Capital Economics believes that the likelihood of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintaining its current monetary policy throughout 2026 is high, despite a recent hawkish tone and an upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - MAS announced on January 29 that it would maintain the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy slope, width, and midpoint unchanged for the third consecutive time [1] - The core and overall inflation forecast range for 2026 was revised from 0.5%-1.5% to 1%-2%, reflecting short-term price pressures rather than an imminent tightening of policy [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Key factors supporting MAS's decision to remain unchanged include the current resilience of the Singapore labor market, which may not sustain its strong performance, and a potential gradual slowdown in domestic demand [1] - If the economy experiences moderate cooling while inflation remains controlled, maintaining the existing policy framework would be a reasonable choice [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Several institutions, including Citigroup, DBS Group, and Morgan Asset Management, share a similar view that MAS is likely to retain policy flexibility in the face of ongoing global uncertainties and a near-zero output gap [1]

Group 1 - The current gold market is driven by "courage" rather than technical analysis or experience, with prices reaching $5,600, reflecting a rapid increase [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January is less significant than the market's disregard for negative news, indicating a preparation for larger price increases [2] - The gold price has surged by $1,200 in just one month, with the speed of increases compressing timeframes and eliminating previous resistance levels [3] Group 2 - After reaching $5,600, gold prices briefly fell to $5,450, but such fluctuations are normal in the current market, with daily price swings of $300 [5] - The market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with a key support level identified around $5,330, indicating strong buying interest [5]

1月29日，金价再次创出历史新高，现货黄金收涨4.53%，报5414.9美元/盎司，盘中最高达5419.3美元/ 盎司。现货白银收涨3.98%，报116.62美元/盎司。 来源：新华社 当天早些时候，美联储公布最新一期货币政策会议纪要，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至 3.75%之间不变。随后，美联储主席鲍威尔就该决定举行发布会，并就美国当前经济状况及美联储下任 主席等问题接受记者提问。 美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 符合市场预期 当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处 于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很 高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 具体表决细节显示，美联储以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决定将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间。 美联储理事沃勒 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 纽约报道 美东当地时间1月28日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标 区间维持在 3.5%至3.75%不变，这一决定符合市场普遍预期。 在会后发布的声明中，美联储指出，最新数据显示，美国经济仍在以"稳健的速度"扩张。尽管就业增长 依然偏弱，但失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象；与此同时，通胀水平仍处在相对偏高区间。 在随后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，结合近期经济数据来看，目前尚难认定货币政策已对 经济形成明显压制。"不少委员认为，仅凭最新数据，还不足以说明政策立场已经明显偏紧。"他说。 标普500盘中触及7000点关口 在美联储公布利率决定当天，美股一度受到经济评估偏积极的提振。盘中，标普500指数首次突破7000 点心理关口，创下历史新高。不过，在投资者重新评估政策前景后，指数涨幅逐渐收窄，最终微跌收 盘。 市场人士指出，指数触及关键整数位更多具有象征意义，而货币政策的中长期路径，仍是影响资产定价 的核心变量。 利率调整仍将逐次评估 鲍威尔指出，自上一次议息会议以来，美国经济前景整体出现改善。通胀走势基本符合预期，而部分劳 动力市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar (USD) due to the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain interest rates and a significant decline in the USD index, reaching a new low since 2026 [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada has kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations and supporting the CAD's strength [2]. - The central bank's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.7%, indicating an improvement from previous estimates, while inflation is expected to remain around the 2% target [3]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in Canada is projected to rise to 6.8% by December 2025, marking a peak not seen since the pre-pandemic period, with youth unemployment increasing and consumer confidence declining [4]. - Trade uncertainties are exacerbated, with average tariffs on Canadian goods rising to 5.9%, and ongoing negotiations regarding the USMCA adding to the risks for the CAD [4]. Oil Prices and Commodity Influence - The CAD is closely tied to international oil prices, which have stabilized around $61.10 per barrel, providing a supportive backdrop for the CAD amid supply concerns [4]. - However, long-term expectations of global energy oversupply and potential US plans to resume Venezuelan oil imports may pose risks to both oil prices and the CAD's appreciation potential [4]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bearish trend, having broken below the key support level of 1.3700, with further downside potential indicated by technical indicators [5]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3600-1.3620, with a new low of 1.3534 established, while resistance is seen at 1.3760-1.3780 [5]. Market Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for the CAD suggests limited appreciation potential, with forecasts indicating a shift in the USD/CAD exchange rate center to 1.35 by 2026 [6]. - Key factors influencing short-term CAD movements include the Federal Reserve's meeting outcomes, fluctuations in international oil prices, and developments in trade policies related to the USMCA [6].

Group 1 - International gold futures and spot prices reached new highs on January 29, breaking through $5,500 per ounce during trading [1] - The highest price recorded was $5,598.75, with a daily increase of 1.29% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry brands also saw significant price increases, with Chow Tai Fook quoting 1,706 RMB per gram, up 88 RMB; Lao Miao Gold at 1,722 RMB per gram, up 104 RMB; and others following suit [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced on January 28 that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% [8]

更引人注意的是，就业增长被描述为"持续低迷"。在美国宏观叙事中，就业一向是货币政策的核心锚 点。当通胀尚未完全回落，而就业动能开始减弱，政策选择就不再是简单的二选一，而是一场关于节 奏、耐心与风险分配的博弈。两张反对票，正是这种博弈的直接体现。 从机制上看，美联储仍然坚持数据依赖原则。鲍威尔反复强调，是否降息取决于劳动力市场的真实走 向，而非市场预期或政治诉求。这种表态在技术层面无可指摘，却也暴露了现实困境：数据正在给出相 互矛盾的信号。通胀尚未彻底驯服，经济却在边际放缓，任何过早转向都可能被视为放弃长期目标。 文︱陆弃 当市场已经习惯用"预期兑现"来形容美联储的决策时，这次看似平淡的利率会议，却意外留下了耐人寻 味的注脚。联邦基金利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变，几乎没有引发市场波动，但两名理事明确投下 反对票，主张降息25个基点。这一细节，让本应例行公事的政策声明，多了一层不安的回响。 表面上，美国经济仍在扩张，美联储的措辞依旧谨慎而克制。经济"稳健增长"，通胀"仍处高位"，失业 率"出现企稳迹象"，这些表述延续了过去一年的官方叙事。但细看其中的逻辑结构，不难发现，美联储 已不再强调强劲，而是反复强 ...

棉花政策、供需及价格解读 20260128 摘要 2025 年棉花补贴目标价格为 18,600 元/吨，2026 年或调整，影响农 民种植积极性。进口棉配额受限，国内市场依赖国产棉，支撑棉价。中 美关系缓和对宏观环境有积极影响。 2025 年全国棉花播种面积 4,700 万亩，新疆占 4,100-4,200 万亩。 2026 年新疆计划压缩播种面积至 3,600 万亩，减少约 500 万亩，或将 影响供应。 2025-2026 年度全国棉花产量预计 745-750 万吨，新疆 710 万吨左右。 市场看涨情绪较高，但需关注政策、播种面积及国际市场变化。 中国加入 WTO 时承诺每年发放 89.4 万吨 1%关税的固定配额，加上少 量随机配额，限制了低关税进口量，支撑国内棉价。2025 年进口量 106 万吨，同比减少。 新疆计划将棉花播种面积降至 3,600 万亩，减少约 500 万亩，旨在优化 农业结构，提高土地利用效率，长期来看增强国际竞争力。 2025 年中国棉花总产量预计为 740-750 万吨，新疆约 710 万吨，属 历史高位。新疆纺纱产能快速增加，本地消化比例提升，缓解供需压力。 2026 年全 ...