Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

| 半色 会 康 好 日报 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | 2026/01/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 6000 | JM2609 | RB2610 | 12609 | HC26 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the optimization and adjustment of housing purchase policies in Beijing, aiming to support housing demand for non-local families and families with multiple children [4] - The article highlights the adjustment of personal housing credit policies, including the removal of distinctions between first and second home loan interest rates, and an increase in public fund support for housing consumption [4] - It mentions the shift in project approval for real estate development from city-level to district-level, indicating a more localized approach to real estate management [4] Group 2 - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the industry, with a focus on the "anti-involution" theme, particularly in the cement and glass sectors, where supply-side dynamics are crucial amid declining demand [5] - It notes that the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the breakeven point, making supply-side adjustments a key observation area [5] - The article identifies new areas of interest, including electronic fabrics, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace, driven by high capital expenditures in the semiconductor and storage sectors [5]

大会聚焦企业家关心的问题，提出了在八个方面开展专项整治。同时，还提出了具体的举措。比如说， 在我们大会当中明确提出坚决整治行政效能不高、办事拖沓的问题，全面在全省推行"立等可取"的服务 模式。目前，我们全省第一批的事项已经实现了立等可取。今年我们还将陆续地推出第二批、第三批这 样的清单，逐步地扩大覆盖范围。其他方面一些有效的举措，我们也将持之以恒地推行下去，通过体制 机制的改革创新，确保营商环境不断地优化提升。 1月4日，辽宁召开全省优化营商环境大会，全力打造营商环境最佳口碑省。会后还发布了《辽宁省大力 优化营商环境行动方案(2026版)》。同一天，上海召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会，这是上海自2018 年以来，连续9年召开全市营商环境大会，并发布优化营商环境行动方案。从辽宁到上海，如何持续优 化营商环境？ 辽宁决心打破"投资不过山海关"魔咒 辽宁省发展和改革委员会主任周轶赢：营商环境看似是无形的"软实力"，实则是发展的"硬支撑"。先进 地区的经验表明，环境优则人才聚，环境优则事业兴。良好的营商环境能够集聚各类要素人才，推动产 业转型升级。无论是招商引资引来的"金凤凰"，还是培育本土企业成长为"领头雁"， ...

Core Viewpoints - Fiscal expansion will shift focus from scale to efficiency, emphasizing structural improvements and effectiveness in 2026, with debt instruments enhancing collaboration to amplify multiplier effects [2][9][12] - Monetary policy will prioritize coordination with fiscal measures, maintaining stable interest rates during periods of government leverage slowdown, with a focus on managing debt risks and other long-term variables [2][15][18] Expanding Domestic Demand - Broad fiscal expansion aims to stabilize investment, with a focus on utilizing new special bonds for "new infrastructure" and "green infrastructure" to promote investment recovery [21][23] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a shift towards nationwide standardized subsidies and a focus on supporting quality service supply [26][27][28] Addressing Overcapacity - The core of addressing overcapacity involves curbing unreasonable incremental capacity expansion and cleaning up overdue payments to alleviate corporate burdens [30][31] New Growth Drivers - Emphasis on bridging gaps in the technology service sector, with a focus on converting technological advantages into competitive advantages in industries [32][33] - The integration of artificial intelligence with manufacturing is highlighted as a key direction for growth, opening new markets and enhancing manufacturing capabilities [33][34] Trade Structure Adjustment - Export structures need adjustment, with a focus on optimizing supply chain layouts to mitigate external shocks, encouraging service exports to enhance resilience against external policy uncertainties [35][36]

Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal expansion in 2026 will shift focus from total scale to structural efficiency, emphasizing investment and consumption equally, with a tilt towards residents and livelihood保障[1] - The government is expected to remain the main entity for leveraging in 2026, with monetary policy aligning closely with fiscal efforts to maintain stable interest rates during periods of slower government leverage[2] - The focus of monetary policy will include reducing traditional capacity expansion credit, monitoring bank liability rates, and addressing long-term variables like debt and exchange rate risks[2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Broad fiscal expansion is crucial for stabilizing investment, with a focus on new infrastructure and green projects to halt the decline in investment growth[3] - The 2026 target for new local government special bonds is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other funding sources, making it a key tool for investment stabilization[3] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a focus on both goods and services, aiming to maximize the utility of limited fiscal resources[3] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Risks - The government aims to address overcapacity and reduce corporate burdens by clearing debts and setting standards to eliminate outdated production capacity[4] - Trade structure adjustments are necessary to mitigate long-term export risks, with a push towards service exports and optimizing supply chain layouts[6] - Risks include potential underperformance of fiscal and monetary policies, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and a complex external environment[7]

中国股票的吸引力正在持续升温。 高盛Hui Shan策略师团队在最新发布的策略报告中对中国资产发出强烈的看多信号，建议投资者在区域背景下"超配"中国股票。该行预测，受企 业盈利增长和估值修复的双重驱动，中国股市在2026年和2027年将迎来稳健的牛市行情，预计年均上涨幅度将达到15%至20%。1月5日，A股全 天高开高走，沪指实现12连阳，创1993年以来最长连涨纪录，且重返4000点上方。 尽管面临复杂的外部贸易环境，高盛对中国出口部门的竞争力保持乐观，这也是其看好中国上市公司的重要逻辑之一。报告指出，中国出口商已 成功实现市场多元化，新兴市场（EM）成为重要的增长点。 高盛分析，中国强大的制造业竞争力结合汇率优势，使得中国产品在许多国家（尤其是新兴市场）的进口份额显著增加。更重要的是，中国企业 的"出海"战略正在从单纯的产品出口转向全球化布局，中间品和资本品的出口显著上升，这表明中国制造商正在全球范围内建立工厂和供应链。 在这份题为《2026年中国展望：探索新增长引擎》的报告中，高盛维持对A股和H股的"超配"评级。高盛认为，中国股市的上涨动力将主要来自两 方面：一是企业盈利的实质性改善，预计2026年和2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

来源：@证券市场周刊微博 上证指数"九连阳"标志着"春季躁动"已经启动，"强者恒强"的有色和科技板块是最确定的主线。此外，随着价格水平的回升，周期板块的盈利 有望迎来改善，也是"春季躁动"值得布局的方向。 廖宗魁/文 如果说之前"春季躁动"还主要停留在市场的憧憬之中，那么随着上证指数自12月17日开始走出"九连阳"，再度逼近4000点关口，期盼已久 的"春季躁动"大幕已经徐徐拉开。 美国股市通常有圣诞行情，中国股市则普遍存在"春季躁动"。这种日历效应看似偶然，其背后也蕴含着必然性。美国经济是消费驱动型，在圣 诞节前后往往是消费的旺季，消费的提升会增加投资者对美国企业盈利的预期，从而推动美股上涨。而在中国，"一年之计在于春"，岁末年初 是一系列政策密集部署的时期，银行信贷的投放很大一部分也会集中在一季度，政策和信贷的预期很容易催生出"春季躁动"行情。 投资者该如何布局当下的"春季躁动"呢？"强者恒强"是"春季躁动"中最确定的主线，从"九连阳"的"春季躁动"预演行情看，有色和通信板块再 度领涨。2025年上市公司的盈利改善是略滞后于经济复苏的，随着"反内卷"的深入推进和促内需政策的持续发力，PPI从底部回升，20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the equity market continued to recover and outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index significantly. The high - price convertible bonds were more elastic in the bull market, while the low - price convertible bonds were more resistant to decline during the market adjustment. The double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the bull market [3][5]. - In 2026, the convertible bond valuation is expected to remain at a high level, and the pressure of individual bond call will increase. When selecting bonds, it is necessary to pay attention to industry rotation and individual bond selection, control risks and pursue elasticity [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall Market Performance**: In December, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 3.25%. Throughout 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 18.66% and 24.6% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.15 pct and the CSI 500 Index by 4 pct in December [3][15]. - **Performance by Price Classification**: In December, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.14%, while the medium - price and low - price convertible bond indexes rose 1.92% and 0.34% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative increases of the high - price, medium - price, and low - price convertible bond indexes were 28%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16]. - **Performance by Stock Size Classification**: In December, the Wind medium - cap and small - cap convertible bond indexes rose strongly by 2.52% and 3.23% respectively, while the large - cap convertible bond index fell 0.36%. In 2025, the small - cap convertible bond index rose 27%, leading the large - cap (+11%) and medium - cap (+19%) convertible bonds [19]. - **Performance by Credit Rating**: In December, high - rated convertible bonds continued to be weak. The AAA and AA+ convertible bond indexes rose - 0.01% and +1.87% respectively. In 2025, the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 28%, and the AA convertible bond index rose 25% [22]. - **Performance by Industry**: In December, only the energy (-2.05%) and financial (-0.39%) convertible bond indexes fell, while the corresponding underlying stock indexes rose 1.6% and 2.37% respectively. The largest increases in December were the materials (+3.66%) and optional consumption (+3.51%) convertible bond indexes. In 2025, the top three industries with the largest increases in the convertible bond indexes were materials (+26%), information technology (+25%), and industry (+24%), while the smallest were finance (+5%) and public utilities (+8%) [4][25]. - **Strategy Performance**: In 2025, the double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the equity market bull market. The Wind double - low index rose 0.42% in December, while the high - price and low - premium index rose 5.78%. In 2025, they rose 30% and 12% respectively [5][32]. 2. Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 2.1 Double - Low Strategy Recommendations: Grasp Industry Rotation and Focus on Individual Bond Selection - **December Double - Low Portfolio Performance**: In December, the self - constructed double - low portfolio had a return of - 4.72%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%. From June to the end of 2025, the cumulative return of the portfolio was 15.25%, underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.06 pct, with a maximum drawdown of - 12.78% [6][35]. - **January 2026 Double - Low Portfolio Recommendation**: Optimistic about the "anti - involution", consumption, robot, and brokerage sectors in January. The number of portfolio targets is reduced to 5, with 3 new targets (Huairui Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond) and 2 original targets retained (China Southern Airlines Convertible Bond, Sanfang Convertible Bond). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, conversion premium rate, and double - low value of this portfolio are 122 yuan, 101 yuan, 23%, and 145 respectively [7][38]. 2.2 Industry Allocation Recommendations: Pay Attention to Call Risks, and Technology Remains the Main Line - In 2026, the equity market is still optimistic, which will keep convertible bond prices at a high level and increase the number of individual bonds facing call. It is recommended to choose high - growth technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robots, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" (chemical, photovoltaic) and consumption sectors with low valuations and expected demand recovery [9][42].