Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].

Report Core Information Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core View - The report provides a weekly preview of hot topics, including important events and data releases that may impact the futures market, and analyzes the potential effects of these events on different types of futures prices [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - From June 24th to 27th, the 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing [2] - On June 24th at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee [2] - On June 26th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP [2] - On June 27th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the industrial enterprise profits for May [2] - On June 28th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index [2] This Week's Hot Topic Preview June 23rd - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [3] - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, with an expected value of 51.2 and a previous value of 52. A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [4] - The National Association of Realtors will release US May existing - home sales at 22:00. The expected annualized total is 3.97 million units (previous 4 million), and the expected monthly rate is - 1.3% (previous - 0.5%). Lower sales may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [5] June 24th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - June at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [8] - The 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from June 24th to 27th, with multiple draft laws on the agenda [9] - IFO will release Germany's June IFO business climate index at 16:00, with an expected value of 88.3 and a previous value of 87.5 [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 [11] - The Conference Board will release the US June consumer confidence index at 22:00, with an expected value of 99.8 and a previous value of 98. A higher value may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [12] - The 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24th to 26th in Tianjin, with the theme of "Entrepreneurship in the New Era" [13] - The NATO Summit will be held from June 24th to 25th in The Hague, and Trump will attend [14] June 25th - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee at 22:00 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will release US May new - home sales at 22:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total is 692,000 units (previous 743,000), and the expected monthly rate is - 6.5% (previous 10.9%). Higher sales may boost non - ferrous metals futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [16] - EIA will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20th at 22:30. A continued significant decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [17] June 26th - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21st at 20:30, with an expected value of 245,000 (previous 245,000) [18] - The US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP at 20:30. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is - 0.2% [19] - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of the May durable goods orders at 20:30, with an expected monthly rate of 8.5% (previous - 6.3%). A significantly higher value may boost non - ferrous metals futures but suppress gold and silver futures [20] - The National Association of Realtors will release the US May seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0% (previous - 6.3%) [21] June 27th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's May industrial enterprise profits at 09:30. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to April was 1.4%, and in April it was 3% [22] - Eurostat will release the Eurozone's June economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index at 17:00. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.3 (previous 94.8), and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 9.8 (previous - 10.3) [24] June 28th - The US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index at 20:30. The expected annual rate of the PCE price index is 2.3% (previous 2.1%), and the expected annual rate of the core PCE price index is 2.6% (previous 2.5%). Slightly higher values may delay the expected start of Fed rate cuts from September to November or December [25] - The US Department of Commerce will release May consumer spending at 20:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.2%). A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [26]

Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

Economic Performance Overview - Hunan Province has actively responded to external environmental impacts and implemented "seven major attacks," resulting in a stable economic operation with a positive trend [2] - From January to May, the province's industrial added value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value by 12.9%, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the industrial growth [2] Sectoral Growth - The metal products industry grew by 23.6%, while the electronic information manufacturing sector increased by 16.2%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 14.4% [2] - In the service sector, 29 out of 34 industries reported revenue growth, expanding the growth coverage to 85.3%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous year [2] - High growth rates were observed in technology service industries, with research and experimental development revenue increasing by 14.6%, and technology promotion and application services growing by 12.4% [2] Profitability and Consumption - The total profit of large-scale service enterprises increased by 21.1%, which is 27.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, with a profit margin of 5.8% [2] - Social retail sales in the province grew by 6.1% year-on-year from January to May, with a monthly growth of 7.4% in May [2] Investment and Financial Support - Fixed asset investment in the province increased by 3.8% from January to May, 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous four months [2] - Private investment also saw a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, matching the growth rate from the previous year [3] - Financial support remains strong, with total deposits in financial institutions reaching 87,311.1 billion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and total loans amounting to 77,639.1 billion yuan, increasing by 6.9% [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Overall, macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, leading to a stable economic operation and enhanced resilience [3] - However, the external environment remains severe and complex, with many unstable and uncertain factors, indicating that the foundation for sustained economic recovery needs further consolidation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operations, with the RMB exchange rate remaining stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery [1] - There will be an increase in policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, along with a gradual expansion of financial market openness [1] - The international balance of payments is projected to remain fundamentally balanced [1] Group 2: Market Participants and Resilience - Market participants are becoming more mature and rational, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging increasing [1] - The share of RMB cross-border receipts under goods trade has risen to approximately 30% [1] - The resilience of the foreign exchange market is expected to continue strengthening [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

Economic Performance - China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality in 2023, with key indicators such as the service production index and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5.9% and 5% year-on-year respectively from January to May, indicating an acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4%, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase from April [1] - The service production index also saw a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in May, up by 0.2 percentage points from April [1] Policy Impact - The implementation of supportive consumption policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with May's retail sales growth exceeding market expectations [2] - The macroeconomic policies have been described as proactive and effective, enhancing consumption vitality and driving production growth [2] - The government has a robust policy toolbox to dynamically adjust macroeconomic policies in response to changing conditions, ensuring continued support for economic stability [2] Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is focused on improving the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, which is seen as a catalyst for economic growth and structural optimization [3] - Expectations for further monetary easing and fiscal measures to support consumption, particularly in the context of trade-in policies, are anticipated in the second half of the year [3] - There is a consensus that growth-stabilizing policies will remain strong, with an emphasis on accelerating government bond issuance and ensuring liquidity in the market [3][4]