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甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:41
Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concern about methanol price decline (long position): - Short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profit and cover production cost, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent price slump and sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 15 - 20 and 45 - 60 respectively [3] Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and purchase based on orders (short position): - Buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Methanol 09 contract oscillates weakly, with contradictions in near - term weakness and high shipments from Iran. Port pressure remains high, and the 91 reverse spread is expected to be around - 120 [4] - Iran's shipments exceed expectations (850,000 tons in August so far, likely to exceed 1 million tons this month), causing great pressure on port arrivals. Inventories in East and South China in August are almost full [4] - After the 91 spread reaches - 120, selling 09 for delivery to 01 is risk - free considering storage and transfer costs. The inland market weakens this week, with Xinjiang's goods flowing out, rising开工 in the Northwest, and low procurement enthusiasm from traditional downstream industries [4] 4. Negative Factors - This week, expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, with sufficient arrivals, leading to an expected increase in port methanol inventory [5]
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. Hold short - term long positions. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have upward potential [2] - For methanol, suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, the domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] - For rubber, it's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10][13] - For PVC, due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] - For benzene - ethylene, the long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [17][18] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] - For polypropylene, it's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] - For PX, the valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] - For PTA, the supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.29, or 0.46%, to $63.77; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.12, or 0.18%, to $67.79; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.30 yuan, or 0.47%, to 487 yuan [1] - **Data**: In the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 8.73 million barrels, a 0.29% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 15.16 million barrels, a 9.13% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.64 million barrels, a 1.60% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.75 million barrels to 4.97 million barrels, a 13.07% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 7.45 million barrels, a 2.27% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.55 million barrels to 42.95 million barrels, a 1.31% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, costs are increasing, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. Overseas device operation has returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will also increase rapidly. The port MTO device is shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak. The market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO, and the futures price shows signs of stabilizing, but the port inventory is still rising rapidly [4] - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 1739 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level. Supply pressure still exists. The start - up of compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacks support as a whole, and exports are continuing. Port inventory has risen again, and the current demand variable mainly lies in exports [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline, following the collective rebound of industrial products [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help a limited increase in rubber production. The seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85% from the previous period. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 485,400 (- 18,000) tons [12] - **Strategy**: It's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 15 yuan to 5019 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 141 (- 9) yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has also decreased. Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level within the year, the valuation pressure is large, the number of maintenance is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic downstream operating rates are at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [15] - **Strategy**: Due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both risen, and the basis has weakened [17] - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - economic sentiment in the market is good, and there is still support from the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the operation of benzene - ethylene has been continuously rising. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S has fluctuated and increased [17][18] - **Strategy**: The long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [18] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, weakening by 4 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply and Demand**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. The spot price has risen, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. The overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the demand side, such as the raw material preparation for agricultural films, has started to stock up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized with low - level fluctuations [20] - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 12 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate may gradually recover, and the supply of propylene will gradually return. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21] - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6966 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 857 dollars. The basis was 79 yuan (+ 20), and the 11 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some overseas devices have restarted. The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The import volume of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle of August has increased year - on - year. The inventory at the end of June has decreased month - on - month [23] - **Strategy**: The valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4868 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan. The basis was 22 yuan (+ 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan (- 6) [25] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The social inventory has decreased [25] - **Strategy**: The supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 1 yuan to 4474 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4518 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan (0) [26] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - side operating rate has increased, and many domestic and overseas devices have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The import arrival forecast is 54,000 tons, and the port inventory has decreased by 6000 tons [26] - **Strategy**: The supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26]
橡胶甲醇原油:多空因素博弈,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:35
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the previous positive factors are digested and domestic tire inventory rises and export growth slows [4] - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend. Although methanol has seen an oversold rebound after the previous negative factors were digested, the current supply - demand structure remains weak [4] - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the previous negative factors are digested and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut rises [5] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons or 0.50% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, while general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [8] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9] - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9] Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10] - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 310,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons [11] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12] - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% from the July average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% from the July average [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | 2,405 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | + 15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.2 yuan/barrel | 493.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.4 yuan/barrel | + 4.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]
申银万国期货首席点评:“万亿用电+万亿成交”双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]
国投安粮期货:国内经济增长稳中有进,流动性环境宽松,央行明确消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等扩内需
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].
《能源化工》日报-20250821
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].
光大期货能化商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250821
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 00:44
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]