Group 1: Summary of the Core View - The current economic readings are rather dull, with the overall production growth slowing down in August. The single - month economic data is prone to fluctuations, but the internal economic momentum continues to recover [4][5][7] - The contradiction in current asset pricing does not lie in the fundamentals. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation is the result of institutional re - allocation of stock and bond assets, and single - month data fluctuations will not change the current risk - preference environment or the expected direction of institutional asset re - allocation [6] - When dealing with the bond market, one should adopt a trading - based approach, focus on the opportunities of structural term spreads and variety spreads, as the bond market remains a "weak asset" and single - month economic data is unlikely to change the trend [9] Group 2: Industry Data Analysis Industrial Industry - In the upstream of the industrial industry, the production of non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and chemical raw material products has accelerated year - on - year. In the mid - and downstream equipment and consumer goods manufacturing, the output growth of the pharmaceutical and special equipment production has accelerated. The growth rate of industrial added value in other industries has declined compared with last month [4] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among the three major sectors, the production growth rate of the mining industry has rebounded, while the year - on - year growth rates of the manufacturing and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water have declined [7] Service Industry - The growth rate of service industry production has slowed down. In August, the service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The prosperity of producer services such as information technology, finance, and leasing is higher than the overall service industry [4] Investment - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has slowed down. In August, the completed amount of fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.15% year - on - year, 1.81 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments decreased by 19.5%, 6.4%, and 1.3% year - on - year respectively [8] - Real estate sales and investment continue to bottom out, with the decline in sales prices narrowing. In August, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14% and 10.6% year - on - year respectively. The real estate new construction area and completion area decreased by 20.3% and 21.4% year - on - year respectively [8] Consumption - In terms of consumption, catering consumption is recovering, while commodity consumption has slowed down, which may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment in some provinces. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month [8] - Among commodity consumption, the year - on - year growth rates of gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and communication equipment have changed significantly compared with last month. The sales volume of gold and silver jewelry may be related to the rapid rise in precious metal prices, while the slowdown of household appliances and communication equipment may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment after the "618" promotion [8] Group 3: Impact of Economic Data - After the release of economic data, bond yields first declined and then rose. The bond market has experienced an oversold rebound recently. After the release of economic data, the long - term bond yields rebounded, but then rose again [7] - Single - month economic data is affected by policy rhythm changes and structural transformation, and its fluctuations are unlikely to change the overall trend. Although the overall economic data in August is not outstanding, the internal economic momentum continues to recover [5][6]

Economic Data - In August, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.5%, down from the previous value of 1.6%[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, compared to the expected decline of 12.4% and previous decline of 12%[1] - The industrial added value in August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8% and previous 5.7%[1] Production and Investment - Industrial added value fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% in August, indicating a slowdown in downstream production due to "anti-involution" effects[2] - Fixed asset investment dropped by 1.0 percentage points to -6.3% in August, with construction and installation investment declining significantly by 5 percentage points to -11.1%[2] - Real estate investment saw the largest decline, down 2.4 percentage points to -19.4%[2] Real Estate Market - In the real estate sector, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, while the sales amount fell by 10.6%[3] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies remained negative at -8.1%, with new construction down 4.8 percentage points to -20.3%[3] Consumer Behavior - The year-on-year growth of social retail sales in August was 3.4%, with significant declines in home appliances (-14.4 percentage points to 14.3%) and communication equipment (-7.6 percentage points to 7.3%) sales[3] - Service consumption remained relatively stable, with restaurant income slightly increasing by 1.0 percentage points to 2.1%[3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that external demand will continue to contribute to economic resilience, while internal demand remains weak, particularly due to the impacts of "anti-involution" and the ongoing decline in real estate new construction projects[4] - The need for policies to stabilize consumption and investment in services and infrastructure is emphasized, with ongoing monitoring of policy changes recommended[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

Consumption Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from July, the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of goods and catering services showed a divergence, with growth rates of 3.6% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a decline in catering services compared to July[3] - The retail sales of durable goods saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 2.6%, the lowest since December 2024[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in August fell by 7.1% year-on-year, deepening by 1.8 percentage points, with all three major sectors showing weakness[4] - Real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, worsening by 2.5 percentage points[4] - Infrastructure investment also declined by 4.6% year-on-year, with significant drops in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors[4] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, worsening by 2.6 percentage points, while new construction area fell by 18.3%, a decline of 9.1 percentage points[5] - The completion area saw a slight narrowing of the decline to 28.8% year-on-year[5] - National new and second-hand residential prices fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop in second-hand housing prices[5] Industrial Output - The industrial added value growth rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year, with mining, utilities, and manufacturing sectors showing varied performance[6] - The manufacturing sector remains in a high growth range despite the impact of "anti-involution" on upstream industrial products[6] Economic Outlook - The report highlights a continued cooling in consumption, investment, and the real estate market, with potential policy measures expected to stimulate the economy[6] - There is a focus on the possibility of increased fiscal expansion to boost consumption and effective investment, alongside potential monetary policy easing to stabilize real estate market expectations[6]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly fading, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year[56]

汽车 275.2万辆 ▲ 10.5% 新能源汽车133.3万辆，增长22.7% 发电量 9363亿千瓦时 ▲ 1.6% 原油加工量 ▲ 7.6% 6346万吨 (以上数据均为2025年8月数据) ·数据来源：国家统计局 ·发布日期：2025年9月15日 山国144 www.ce.cr 文案/设计:刘岚 | 有31个行业增加 | | | --- | --- | | 值保持同比增长 | | | 煤炭开采和洗选业 | 5.1% | | 石油和天然气开采业 | ▲ 4.7% | | 农副食品加工业增长 | 4.7% | | 酒、 饮料和精制茶制造业 | 7 2.4% | | 纺织业 | ▲ 1.5% | | 化学原料和化学制品制造业 | ▲ 7.6% | | 非金属矿物制品业 | 0.5% | | 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业 | ▲ 7.3% | | 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 | 9.1% | | 通用设备制造业 | ▲ 7.3% | | 专用设备制造业 | 4.0% | | 铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备 制造业 | 12.0% | | 电气机械和器材制造业 | 9.8% | | 计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业 ...

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from July[1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] GDP and Economic Drivers - The monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate for August is approximately 3.8%, a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from July, significantly below the annual growth target[2][3] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while industrial and service sectors each contributed a drag of 0.1 percentage points[2][3] - The decline in economic growth is characterized by a simultaneous slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports, indicating a broad-based cooling of demand[3] Policy Outlook - The current economic situation presents a critical policy window, necessitating more aggressive macroeconomic responses to prevent further economic decline[4][15] - Key measures include accelerating the expenditure of accumulated fiscal deposits, increasing the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, and enhancing support for infrastructure projects through policy financial tools[4][15] Risks and Challenges - The rising unemployment rate may suppress consumer income expectations and confidence, potentially undermining the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies[3][15] - There is a risk of policy measures being ineffective if consumers choose to save rather than spend any subsidies received, leading to a "policy hollowing out" effect[3][15]

8月份，社会消费品零售总额为39668亿元，同比增长3.4%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额为35575亿元，增长3.7%。1—8月份，社会消费品零售总额 为323906亿元，增长4.6%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额为292643亿元，增长5.1%。 2025年1—8月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）326111亿元，同比增长0.5%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降2.3%。从环比看，8月份固定资产投资 （不含农户）下降0.20%。 重磅数据来了！ 9月15日，国家统计局公布最新统计数据：8月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，8 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.37%。 1—8月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%。 8月份，社会消费品零售总额39668亿元，同比增长3.4%；环比增长0.17%。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零售额34387亿元，同比增长3.2%；乡村消 费品零售额5281亿元，增长4.6%。按消费类型分，商品零售额35172亿元，增长3.6%；餐饮收入4496亿元，增长2.1%。基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售 增势良 ...

Economic Overview - In August, the national economy maintained overall stability and progress, with a focus on strengthening macro policy adjustments and promoting a unified national market [1] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year in August, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% respectively [1] Industrial Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value increased by 8.1%, while high-tech manufacturing saw a growth of 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [1] - From January to August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year [1] Profitability - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 40,204 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326,111 billion yuan from January to August, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a 4.2% growth when excluding real estate development investment [2] - Investment in high-tech industries such as information services, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing grew by 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% year-on-year respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The economic data in August generally continued to decline and fell short of expectations, with economic growth continuing to slow down. The overall domestic demand economic data in August continued to slow down, with investment continuing to slow down and slightly lower than market expectations, consumption growth slightly declining and lower than market expectations, and industrial production slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down, and the domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. The supply side also slowed down due to factors such as domestic demand slowdown and anti - involution. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed a state of weak demand and relatively abundant supply, which weakened the support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities. The data announced this time continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide was 5.2%, lower than the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 5.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Mainly due to strong external demand, but also affected by domestic anti - involution and environmental protection production restrictions, the operating rate of industrial enterprises declined, and the industrial production growth rate decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. By major categories, in August, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4%. In the second half of the year, as the US replenishment demand gradually weakened, the overall industrial production growth rate in China might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. Domestic Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the slowdown in the subsidy intensity of the consumer goods trade - in policy. Currently, the effect of the consumer goods trade - in policy has weakened, and the retail sales of commodities in categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, automobiles, and sports and entertainment products by units above the designated size have slowed down, but service consumption has rebounded. In the later stage, with the continuous implementation and effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption will pick up [4]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed - asset investment was 0.4%, far lower than the expected 1.4% and a significant drop of 1.1% from the previous value of 1.6%. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing investment continued to decline, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in the short term, and real estate investment remained weak [4]. Real Estate - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 19.9%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing sales area was - 11%, with the decline expanding by 2.6 percentage points from the previous value, and the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales was - 14.8%, with the decline expanding by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the high - base effect formed by the "5.17 real estate new policy" last year and the weakening of the effect of real estate policy stimulus. The real estate market continued to recover slowly, and the real estate prosperity remained low and had slowed down for five consecutive months. However, with the slowdown of the real estate market, more incremental real estate policies were expected to be introduced [4]. Infrastructure Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 5.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value of - 5.1%. Although the issuance speed of special bonds accelerated, due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather and poor fund arrival, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4]. Manufacturing Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point from the previous value of - 0.3%. It slowed down significantly due to the high base effect last year and domestic anti - involution. Currently, high - tech industries maintained a high - growth level, and the large - scale equipment renewal policy continued to take effect, which provided strong support for manufacturing investment. In the future, on the one hand, with the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the exit of backward production capacity, manufacturing enterprise profits were expected to gradually bottom out and recover, and the willingness of enterprises to make capital expenditures might increase; on the other hand, the possible slowdown of the US replenishment demand in the second half of the year would weaken the short - term driving force for manufacturing investment [5]. Impact on Bulk Commodities - In the short term, the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market was negatively affected as the data continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6].