1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].

此外，由于9月份受到开学季、中秋节需求拉动，畜禽产品行情上涨概率较大，畜禽行业存在集中出栏 的习惯。卓创资讯预计9月份国内主要畜禽存栏量将降至23.62亿，环比降幅0.85%。其中，白羽肉鸡、 在产蛋鸡均有不同程度下降，生猪存栏量环比增幅2.02%。由于新季玉米存在后熟期，畜禽养殖对陈粮 仍有一定刚需，但难敌供应偏宽松的压力。 综上所述，9月上旬东北新季玉米上市前，饲用玉米需求难有增量，南方市场以执行前期合同为主，小 额成交量难以提振市场行情。轮换粮持续补充市场，进一步满足当地饲用需求，且市场对高价粮源接受 度有限。预计9月上旬东北玉米市场供需关系偏宽松，玉米价格以下行趋势为主，跌幅20元／吨左右。 进入8月份，东北市场轮换粮持续补充，叠加产区贸易商积极出库，国内玉米供应端略显宽松。但需求 端处于季节性低位，市场价格承压并缓慢走低。卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至8月22日，东北玉米市场 日均价由2252元／吨跌至2230元／吨，跌幅0.98%。 后期来看，虽然9月份高温天气消退，畜禽活体采食量缓慢恢复，但饲料产量并没有表现出季节性增长 特点。且从畜禽产能来看，8-9月份养殖、饲料需求仍或偏弱。因此，预计9月上旬东 ...

软商品日报 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.97%，报收 66.67 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.11%，报收 14100 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 3455 手至 50.81 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15235 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 135 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15334 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 99 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍需持续关注，目前市场已经基本 | | | | 定价 9 月降息 25bp，关注后续是否会有超预期扰动，昨日美元指数与美棉价格共 | | | | 振下行。基本面驱动有限，USDA8 月报环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉产量预期值 30.2 | | | 棉花 | 万吨，关注后续美国干旱扰动。国内市场方面。2025 年棉花滑准税配额发布，20 | | | | 万吨加工贸易进口配额，部分缓解库存短缺担忧。市场关注重心将逐渐转向新棉， | | | | 展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing concerns about persistent inflation despite market expectations for a rate decrease in September [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market speculation suggests a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, but Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expresses concerns about inflation not being fully under control [2][5]. - Current U.S. benchmark interest rates are between 4.25% and 4.5%, with ongoing debates about the Fed's monetary policy direction [5][6]. Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee highlights that inflation has remained above target for over four years, with recent signs of rising service sector prices indicating that inflationary pressures may still exist [6][10]. - He warns against the "temporary inflation" narrative that misled experts in 2021, stressing the importance of addressing underlying inflation risks [6][10]. Employment Market Stability - Goolsbee presents the "four horsemen" indicators (unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and job vacancy rate) to illustrate that the U.S. job market remains stable [6][9]. - The latest unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, indicating a low level of unemployment post-COVID [9]. Market Reactions and Financial Conditions - The article notes that despite claims of tight monetary policy, financial conditions appear loose, with stock markets reaching new highs [9][10]. - Goolsbee cautions that premature rate cuts could lead to a repeat of past mistakes, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on long-term price levels [10][11]. Long-term Interest Rate Expectations - The article discusses the shift in perceptions of the "neutral interest rate," suggesting that higher long-term rates may persist due to rising fiscal deficits and global debt levels [10][11]. - Investors are advised to be cautious with long-duration bonds and to reassess stock valuations, especially for high-growth, interest-sensitive stocks [10][11]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should seek structural opportunities amid macroeconomic uncertainties, rather than following market trends blindly [11][12]. - A stable job market could support consumer spending, indicating potential resilience in certain sectors [11][12].

天眼查App显示，近日，湖北本末蕲艾科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为邓文斌，注册资本100万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：信息技术咨询服务，技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转 让、技术推广，第一类医疗器械生产，第一类医疗器械销售，第二类医疗器械销售，农产品的生产、销 售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务，中草药种植，中草药收购，地产中草药（不含中药饮片）购 销，食品销售（仅销售预包装食品），卫生用品和一次性使用医疗用品销售，个人卫生用品销售，化妆 品零售，化妆品批发，互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品），工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其 制品除外），工艺美术品及礼仪用品制造（象牙及其制品除外），中医养生保健服务（非医疗），养生 保健服务（非医疗），食品互联网销售（仅销售预包装食品），日用百货销售，日用品批发，日用品销 售，农副产品销售，日用化学产品销售，化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品），生物化工产品技术。 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/27 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Anec：巴西8月大豆出口量料为890万吨 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）表示，巴西8月大豆出口量料为890万吨，前一周预估为894万吨。巴西8月豆粕出 口量料为213万吨，前一周预估为233万吨。 SPPOMA：马来西亚8月1-25日棕榈油产量环比下滑1.21% 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）发布的数据显示，2025年8月1-25日，马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑1.21%， 鲜果串单产下降3.26%，出油率增加0.40%。 主 产 国 降 水 情 况 进 口 大 豆 盘 面 压 榨 利 润 油 脂 进 口 利 润 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/20 | 3000 | 2630 | 8530 | 9500 | 9950 | | 2025/08/21 | 2990 | 2580 | 8550 | 9450 | 9910 | | 2025/08/22 | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/27 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/20 2230 | 2210 | 2454 | 2380 | 40 | 35 300 | 2850 | 2980 | 366 | -25 | | 2025/08/21 2230 | 2210 | 2446 | 2380 | 44 | 30 302 | 2850 | 2980 | 371 | -25 | | 2025/08/22 2230 | 2190 | 2434 | 2360 | 15 | 30 258 | 2850 | 2980 | 357 | -5 | | 2025/08/25 2230 | 2210 | 2434 | 2360 | 56 | 10 254 | 2850 | 2930 | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. The extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may have an impact on sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. [1][3] - The cotton in most parts of the country is in the peak flowering period, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported at the bottom. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,950 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,860 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,100 yuan. [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.42, with a change of 0.18%. US cotton closed at 66.67, with a change of - 1.05%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: The demand for sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is high and the precipitation is low, so the risk of heat damage to cotton is relatively high. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price has bottom support. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15,315, with a change of - 0.45%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6,977, with a change of - 1.79%. [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 16.39 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 16.42 dollars, with a change of 0.18%. - US cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 67.38 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 66.67 dollars, with a change of - 1.05%. [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,970 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,950 yuan, with a change of - 0.34%. - Sugar (Kunming): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. - Cotton Index 328: On August 25, 2025, it was 3,281, and on August 26, 2025, it was 3,280, with a change of 0.65%. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On August 25, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 42.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 33.0, with a change of - 21.43%. - SR05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was - 74.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 79.0, with a change of 6.76%. - SR09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was 32.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 46.0, with a change of 43.75%. - CF01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 45.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was 275.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 275.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was - 320.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 320.0, with a change of 0.00%. - Sugar 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 172.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 228.0, with a change of 32.56%. - Sugar 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 214.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 261.0, with a change of 21.96%. - Sugar 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 140.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 182.0, with a change of 30.00%. - Cotton 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,115.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,234.0, with a change of 10.67%. - Cotton 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,160.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,279.0, with a change of 10.26%. - Cotton 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,435.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,554.0, with a change of 8.29%. [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On August 25, 2025, it was 78.9, and on August 26, 2025, it was 78.9, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,515.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,515.0, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Options - SR601C5600: Implied volatility is 0.0865, and the futures underlying is SR601, with a historical volatility of 6.38. - SR601P5600: Implied volatility is 0.0863. - CF601C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1046, and the futures underlying is CF601, with a historical volatility of 5.63. - CF601P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1048. [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 15,385.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,315.0, with a change of - 0.45%. - Cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 7,104.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 6,977.0, with a change of - 1.79%. [4]

油脂产业期现日报 | 田川 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 狱跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8740 | 8740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8536 | 8536 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 204 | 204 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏8月 | 01+220 | 01+200 | 20 | ு | | | 仓单 | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9470 | 9620 | -150 | -1.56% | | | 期价 | P2601 | 9424 | d488 | -64 | -0.67% | | | 墓差 | P2601 | 46 | 132 | -86 | -65.15% | | ...

Group 1 - The 15th China-Northeast Asia Expo is held from August 27 to 31 in Changchun, Jilin Province, co-hosted by the Ministry of Commerce, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, and the Jilin Provincial Government [1] - The expo features a 150 square meter special exhibition area for Liaoning, showcasing nearly 30 enterprises and highlighting quality products in machinery, textiles, agricultural products, and light industrial goods to promote trade and enhance Liaoning's international image [1] - This year's expo marks the 20th anniversary of the China-Northeast Asia Expo, which is the only international comprehensive expo involving six Northeast Asian countries and open to the global market [1] Group 2 - The total exhibition area is 73,000 square meters, featuring over 70,000 domestic and international brand products displayed both online and offline [1] - A key feature of this year's expo is the establishment of a "Modern Industry Pavilion," which gathers Fortune Global 500 companies, China’s top 500 companies, and specialized enterprises [1] - The provincial commerce department aims to leverage this event to strengthen various domestic and international exhibition platforms, promoting the theme "Liaoning Looks Global, Products Renowned Worldwide" to help foreign trade enterprises capture orders and diversify international market expansion [1]