gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月06日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续回落，布伦特10合约跌1.46%，OPEC+9月增产决策及近期美国表现不佳的经济数 据仍令市场承压。昨日特朗普表示将在未来24小时大幅提升对印度进口关税以制裁其购买俄油的行 为，临近8月12日到期日中美对等关税延期的问题亦未最终落地，关注俄油制裁引发的油价上行风 险。上周美国API原油库存超预期下降423.3万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前 景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势，国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻 力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复，贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌到MA60日均线下方，一方面伦铜库存单日大增，另一方面特朗普言论，尤其ISM服务 业指数零增长，再次凸显美国经济增长压力，铜价收跌。不过市场仍在评估Codelco地下矿场事故 可能对年度生产目标的影响，下半年供损率有提升风险。伦铜可能震荡下调到9500美元，空单持 有。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 of CPL and styrene has declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory in the downstream, with the开工 of phenol - ketone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, port basis rebounded, and downstream提货 volume increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Domestic EB开工 remains high, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation, especially as the开工 of downstream PS and ABS is still low. The recommended strategies are to remain on the sidelines for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading. For basis and inter - period trading, short the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant - month BZ2603 when the spread is high, short the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread when it is high, and short the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread when it is high. For cross - product trading, short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 205 yuan/ton (- 15). The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of pure benzene is also presented in the report [1][11] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 14 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of styrene is also included in the analysis [1][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 153 dollars/ton (+ 0 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 140 dollars/ton (+ 2 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea price difference is 66.8 dollars/ton (- 7.1 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid are - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0), - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51), - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) respectively [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 243 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 16.30 million tons (- 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate data of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 90.21% (- 0.69%), 73.00% (- 5.00%), 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and 64.80% (+ 0.00%) respectively [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.9% (+ 0.1%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.30% (+ 1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 152 yuan/ton (- 173 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), and the production profit is - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Phenol - ketone: The operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), and the production profit is - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51) [1] - Aniline: The operating rate is 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47) [1] - Adipic acid: The operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%), and the production profit is - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1]

中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中， 共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品 月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。本周（07.28-08.03） 国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅3.33%；布伦特原油 期货价格收于69.67美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅1.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业动态 本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种 价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均 价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是环氧氯丙烷（华东）、 液氨（河北新化）、轻质纯碱（华东）、软泡聚醚（华东散水）、石脑油（新加坡）；周均 价跌幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、天然橡胶（上海）、DMF（华东）、醋酸乙烯 （华东）、顺丁橡胶（华东）。 本周（07.28-08.03）国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价 ...

（8月4日）全国PTA价格一 上一交易日，PTA2509主力合约下跌，跌幅2.02%，华东现货现价在4750元/吨，基差率为0.13%。 8月1日，郑商所PTA期货仓单27731张，环比上个交易日减少2007张。 PTA周均产能利用率79.67%，较上周-1.09%。国内PTA产量为142.61万吨，较上周-1.89万吨。 分析观点： 正信期货研报：8月，在检修增加的预期下，PTA市场有望由累库转向去库。尽管7月份存在部分装置检 修，但PTA供应充裕，下游需求疲软，导致库存累积。PX成本支撑也因库存压力大而显得乏力。随着8 月更多PTA装置进入检修期，预计开工率下降，供应过剩的局面将得到缓解。同时，考虑到"金九银 十"传统需求旺季即将来临，下游聚酯及纺织行业的需求有望回暖，将进一步促进库存消耗。因此，如 果检修计划兑现，并且终端需求再旺季时恢复，8月PTA市场有望实现去库，PTA价格重心或呈现窄幅 上涨。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 等级:优等品 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent improvement in supply-demand policies is expected to partially reverse the current unfavorable economic situation, driven by increased domestic demand from projects like the Yaxia Hydropower Station and ongoing "anti-involution" policies [4][10] - The cyclical stocks have shown strong performance recently, with the market's expectations for price improvements rapidly increasing, indicating a potential continuation of market valuation support in the short term [4][10] - The report emphasizes that the current market environment is characterized by ample liquidity, which, combined with the low valuation levels of cyclical sectors, has contributed to the rapid upward movement of these stocks [4][10] Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: SF Express (transportation), Satellite Chemical (chemicals), Anji Technology (chemicals), Heng Rui Medicine (pharmaceuticals), Bairen Medical (pharmaceuticals), Beijing Renli (services), Feiliwa (electronics), Industrial Fulian (electronics), Pengding Holdings (electronics), and Hehe Information (computers) [10][11] - The report notes that the July stock selection achieved an absolute return of 9.64%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.10 percentage points, with individual stocks like Jitu Express-W and Shenghong Technology yielding returns of 57.23% and 42.94%, respectively [6][10] Industry Analysis Transportation Sector - SF Express reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, driven by an improved product matrix and service competitiveness [12][13] Chemical Sector - Satellite Chemical achieved a record high net profit in Q4 2024, benefiting from stable raw material prices and increased sales margins, with a sales gross margin of 27.11% [14][15] - Anji Technology experienced rapid revenue growth in 2024, with a gross margin of 58.45%, attributed to market expansion and product diversification [17][18] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine's overseas licensing agreements have contributed to significant revenue growth, with Q4 2024 net profit increasing by 107.20% year-on-year [20][21] - Bairen Medical's revenue growth was driven by the successful launch of its first interventional valve product, which significantly boosted its performance in 2024 [22][23] Service Sector - Beijing Renli has a strong market presence in the human resources industry, with a broad service offering and a robust client base, positioning it for continued growth [25][26] Electronics Sector - Feiliwa is expanding its production capacity in quartz fiber cloth, targeting the growing demand in the PCB market, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [27][28] - Industrial Fulian's cloud computing business has shown significant growth, with revenue from AI servers increasing by over 150% [31][32] - Pengding Holdings is expected to achieve steady revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by cost control and product structure optimization [33][34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price changes of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and analyzes the market trends of different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option finance [4][13][14]. - It also covers macro - economic news, including policy changes, international trade policies, and economic data, which have an impact on the commodity and financial markets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 31, 2025, prices of some chemical products like coking coal increased (9.326% increase), while others such as natural rubber decreased (-0.172% decrease) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: For agricultural products, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 0.048%, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.815% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - **Regulatory and Policy News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China interviewed NVIDIA regarding the security risks of its H20 computing chips. New regulations such as the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong came into effect on August 1, 2025 [7][8]. - **International Trade News**: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1, 2025, and is still in negotiation with multiple economies [8]. - **Economic Data**: The core PCE price index in the US rose 2.8% year - on - year in June, higher than the expected 2.7%. In 2024, China's "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [8][9]. 3.3 Main Commodity Market Analysis 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be in a narrow - range shock. It may be strongly shocked in the short - term but will not change the downward trend [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly shocked [13]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory, but attention should be paid to the supply pressure brought by the concentrated arrival of processed sugar in August. The international raw sugar lacks directional driving forces [13]. - **Corn**: The price of corn has broken through the lower edge of the previous shock range. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term, but beware of the rebound risk caused by policy support and weather speculation [13]. - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [15]. - **Eggs**: After the price correction, the possibility of a sharp decline in egg prices is not high. For the 08 contract in the delivery month, it is recommended to avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has fallen recently due to the lack of fundamental support and capital promotion, as well as the cautious market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the support level at 13,350 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Urea**: The supply of urea is in a state of phased reduction, and the demand is mixed. The futures price may continue to be weakly shocked in the short - term, but there is an improvement expectation for autumn fertilizers and export demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda has strong support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke are under short - term pressure and are running weakly [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision. The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, but the spot price is relatively firm. Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [17]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is affected by factors such as macro - sentiment cooling and raw material price decline, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is mainly affected by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate with a shock - range mentality [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of the support at 67,000 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Options**: On July 31, the A - share market declined, and the volatility of options increased. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Highlights - Since no investment rating for the industry is provided, this part is skipped. - As there is no clear core view presented, this part is skipped. Price and Market Information - On July 31, 2025, the price of refined naphtha was $608.30 per ton, up 3.23% from the previous day [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the price index of Northeast Asia ethylene was $821.00 per ton, showing no change [1] - On July 31, 2025, the ex - factory price of East China ethylene oxide was 6,450 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price of methanol was 2,405 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the pit - mouth price of Inner Mongolia lignite (Q3500) was 290 yuan per ton, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of GD was 4,450 yuan per ton, down 0.38% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the main contract of GD was 4,465 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,423 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,420 yuan per ton, up 0.07% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the mid - market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,520 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of ethylene glycol was 4,515 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the price difference between far and near months was - 45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the basis was 65 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - As of July 30, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 58.13%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from naphtha was 58.98%, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal was 56.89%, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of polyester plants in the APT industry chain was 86.28%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of textile machines in Zhejiang in the APT industry chain was 58.75%, with no change [1] Cash Flow and Profitability - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from naphtha was - $95.29 per ton, a decrease of $12.09 [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from ethylene was - $103.65 per ton, an increase of $3.00 [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of G produced by MMT was - 1,573.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.79 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas unit was 667.70 yuan per ton, with no change [1] Polyester Price Index - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester yarn was 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of POY polyester yarn was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,610 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,000 yuan per ton, showing no change [1]

Core Views - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, aligning with investor expectations [2][3] - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, prioritizing service consumption, and fostering international competitiveness in technology innovation [2][4][5] Focus Area 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [4] - Policies may increasingly focus on stimulating service consumption, with potential measures including issuing consumption vouchers and upgrading cultural tourism [4] Focus Area 2: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation remains a focal point, with a shift from specific sectors to nurturing emerging industries with international competitiveness, particularly in the domestic computing power chain [5] - The "anti-involution" narrative has been refined to emphasize lawful governance of chaotic competition and capacity management in key industries [5] Focus Area 3: Capital Market Policies - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to support enterprises at different development stages [6] - There was no separate discussion on real estate policies, indicating that future policy directions need further observation [6]