Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical price index in 2025 is expected to be in a downward trend due to supply and demand dynamics, posing significant challenges for the company's main products [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is focusing on quality and efficiency, enhancing operational capabilities, and improving management to counteract market challenges [1] - Significant reductions in energy and production costs have been achieved [1] - The company has implemented measures to reduce working capital requirements, resulting in positive cash flow improvements compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - Major products such as propylene oxide, anti-aging agents, phenolic ketones, bisphenol A, nylon 66, and aramid fibers are experiencing a continuous decline in market prices year-on-year [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -1.331 billion yuan, indicating an expected loss for the entire year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the US attack on Venezuela on crude oil is limited, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter. Chemical products should be treated differently in the future. Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while styrene can be a key short - position variety to focus on. PX - PTA should be observed in the short term and wait for the end of the callback to enter long positions in the next stage [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil. Venezuela has become an edge producer with about 1% of global output and 50 - 80 barrels per day of daily exports. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The price hit a new low recently. The short - term upper pressure is at 436. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. With the paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil exports, the Venezuelan heavy oil (accounting for over 40% of domestic asphalt raw materials) faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drives of supply reduction and cost increase. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. The volume is well - matched, and there is still an upward space after the accumulation of momentum. The short - term support is at 2990. The strategy is to hold half of the long - position in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2990 [7]. Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of pure benzene upstream drags down the price of styrene. The downstream 3S has weak demand and profits. The industry is in an oversupply state. If the expected export increase in January is false, the price of styrene will fall [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure, but the upward volume is insufficient. The 15 - minute cycle has changed from a decline to a shock. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short - positions in the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13]. Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory accumulation rate of domestic natural rubber is fast, and the inventory is higher than the same period. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of downstream tires, there is no strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price followed by a decline at the end of the session, the short - term support is moved up to 15700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating state and has a slight inventory reduction due to traders' replenishment. The raw material butadiene also has an inventory reduction, but the high supply pressure of butadiene and the high inventory pressure of downstream tires limit the upward space. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 11750 [17]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of downstream polyester in the off - season, there is a short - term callback. In the medium term, there is an opportunity for a second low - entry long - position due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 7390. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [20][23]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but there is a short - term callback due to downstream factors. There is a medium - term opportunity for a second low - entry long - position. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 5205. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is moved up to 6350. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Methanol - Logic: The methanol port inventory is at a historically high level. Although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental drive is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume followed by a decline, the short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. PVC - Logic: PVC has high production, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of policy and spring maintenance in the first quarter. The news of Shaanxi's proposed differential electricity price for the calcium carbide industry has a short - term positive impact on the market. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 4820. The strategy is to hold long - positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 4820 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price on the cost side and the continuous inventory accumulation at the port, along with weakening demand, mean that the fundamentals do not provide a strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. After a decrease in volume followed by an increase in price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is at 6435. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but it is still high compared to the same period. The over - supply pattern caused by large - scale capacity expansion in recent years remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a large increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 1215. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling at present. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. After a large increase in volume and price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a net loss attributable to shareholders for the full year of 2025 due to a decline in domestic chemical prices influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a challenging market environment for its main products, including epoxy propylene, anti-aging agents, phenolic ketones, bisphenol A, nylon 66, and aramid fibers, which are all experiencing a downward price trend [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs, leading to significant decreases in energy and production costs [1] - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to maintain positive operating cash flow and significantly improved it compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Financial Results - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 35.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.56% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was -1.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 157.8% [2] - The company’s third-quarter results showed a main revenue of 11.363 billion yuan, down 16.63% year-on-year, with a net profit of -444.5 million yuan, an increase of 15.77% year-on-year [2] - The company’s debt ratio stands at 67.3%, with investment income reported at -213 million yuan and financial expenses at 503 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 3.59% [2]

中化国际公告，预计2025年全年业绩亏损。截止2025年三季度末，归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为-13.31亿元。2025年国内化工品价格指数受供需格局影响处于下行区间，公司主要产品所处行业形势 严峻。 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-07 EG价格反弹，关注地缘变化 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3838元/吨（较前一交易日变动+106元/吨，幅度+2.84%），EG华东市场现货 价3680元/吨（较前一交易日变动+40元/吨，幅度+1.10%），EG华东现货基差-129元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。受海外局势 影响，化工品表现偏强，乙二醇价格重心适度抬升。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-93美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-898 元/吨（环比-41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数8.3万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数17.8万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：近期聚酯负荷运行在90.8%附近，但是产业链传导不畅，终端负荷仍有局部下降，需求端支撑力度一般。乙二醇近月 存在季节性累库压力，1-2月累库幅度在55-60万吨附近，市场整体持货意向偏弱。近端受海外局势影响，化工品表现偏强，商 品氛围待定下，乙二醇价格重心可适度抬升。但是现货端口宽裕及远月累库压制下，价格上方压制明显，关注油价以及装置变 化。 2、基差：现货5080，05合约基差-70，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.61天，环比减少0.15天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, natural gas, glass, soda ash [1][3][6] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea [3] - **Bearish Rebound**: LPG, L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [1][6] - **Oscillating Bullish**: PVC, glass [1][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price movements in the energy and chemical industries. For example, supply surplus leads to downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical events in South America cause short - term price rebounds [1][9]. - Cost factors play a significant role. For instance, the increase in Saudi CP contract prices boosts LPG prices in the short - term, and the weakening of oil prices affects the cost of asphalt [1][15]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations also impact prices. Seasonal off - peak demand and inventory changes influence the market, and market expectations affect trading strategies [1][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.04%, Brent down 1.72%, and SC up 0.12% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical events in South America and the Middle East do not change the supply surplus situation. In the core driving factor, supply surplus during the off - peak season and increasing global crude oil inventories lead to downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [420 - 430] [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the PG main contract closed at 4195 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's increase in the latest CP contract price boosts gas prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and faces upward pressure. Supply increases with rising refinery starts, and downstream chemical demand provides some support [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6579 yuan/ton, up 2.0% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term expectations dominate the market. The shutdown ratio rises, and the weighted gross profit of LL is compressed. However, the supply is still sufficient. The demand for shed films weakens, and there is pressure to reduce inventory [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6423 yuan/ton, up 1.5% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The intensification of maintenance reduces short - term supply pressure. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The commercial total inventory is decreasing at a high level, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4919 yuan/ton, up 3.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The market trades on the Shaanxi differential electricity price notice, and calcium carbide is expected to strengthen. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support strengthens, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to inventory changes. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 5000] [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation has improved, and processing fees and profits have increased. The supply side has some device restarts, and the demand side is currently good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5120 - 5250] [30]. 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3609 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load has increased, and the demand is good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3830 - 3920] [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has some changes in domestic and overseas device starts, and the demand side is slightly weak. The cost support is weakly stable, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2250 - 2349] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract closing price was 1749 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stabilized. The supply side is expected to face increasing pressure as some maintenance devices resume production. The demand side is weak in the short - term, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [41][42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1800] [43]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.523 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.63% [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side enters the consumption peak season, but the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant, putting pressure on prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [46]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 6, the BU main contract closed at 3144 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical events in South America lead to short - term supply disruptions of asphalt raw materials. The cost - profit situation improves, and the supply side has a decrease in production volume. The demand side is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is rising [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be cautious due to supply uncertainties. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [51]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.0% [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold - repair expectations support the market. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak supply and demand, with declining daily melting volume and negative profits for all three processes. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1190 yuan/ton, up 1.1% [57]. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment improves, but the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the continuous decline in the daily melting volume of float glass. The long - term supply is abundant, and the demand support is insufficient [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are disturbing the energy and chemical market, and the chemical industry as a whole will continue its volatile pattern. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost support, showing different trends [4]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to cause disruptions, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is still uncertain, API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories but an increase in gasoline and diesel inventories. OPEC +'s production expectations for the first quarter are stable, but the geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the core factors affecting supply expectations [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: As the political situation in Venezuela stabilizes, asphalt futures prices will decline. The supply interruption expectation of asphalt raw materials will be alleviated, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, inventory is accumulating, and its valuation compared to some products is relatively high [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. However, high - sulfur fuel oil faces medium - to long - term double negatives from high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil demand by natural gas and photovoltaics [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices will fluctuate. It follows the trend of crude oil, has a certain support, but also faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [12]. - **Methanol**: Due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, methanol will rise strongly. The market is affected by overseas supply disruptions and high inventory pressure, but the methanol market based on coastal trading logic is still considered strong [27]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded. The release of the India tender has boosted market sentiment, and urea prices will be moderately strong. The supply is increasing, demand from some regions is rising, and the market is in a moderately strong state, but the upside space during the off - season is limited [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. Cost support is significant, but with the approaching Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and the price will be range - bound in the short term [20]. - **PX**: Geopolitical factors boost international oil prices, providing cost support for PX. In the short term, PX supply is expected to return, downstream polyester load is stable, and PX prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range [13]. - **PTA**: Cost support and a positive chemical market sentiment strengthen the support for PTA prices. After the post - holiday maintenance devices return to production, the supply - demand relationship is marginally weaker, and the processing fee is slightly reduced [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand is not sustainable, and profits are under pressure. Although the cost of upstream polyester raw materials is rising, the short - fiber's own supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the off - season [22][23]. - **Bottle - Chip**: More device overhauls are scheduled in January, and the basis is strong. The cost is rising, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching. The increase in overhauls enhances the support for profits [24]. - **Plastic**: The weak basis restricts the upside space of plastics. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro - expectations and low - valuation varieties, the spot is weak, and demand is in the off - season [31][32]. - **PP**: The increase in overhauls makes PP prices rise cautiously. Affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors, the downstream is in the off - season, and the focus is on PDH in the future [33]. - **PL**: Supported by the expectation of PDH overhauls, PL prices will fluctuate. The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but downstream demand support is limited during the off - season [33]. - **PVC**: Frequent supply disruptions lead to a strong rebound in PVC. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. There are positive factors such as overseas device outages and expected increases in electricity costs, but the downstream is in the off - season [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Positive market sentiment drives caustic soda prices. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in electricity costs for restricted - capacity caustic soda production in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment, but the market is also facing problems such as high inventory [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.41 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 26 with a change of - 12 [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is - 74 with a change of - 11, and the number of warehouse receipts is 27920 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 564 with a change of - 141 [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety is mentioned, no detailed data or summaries are provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and PPI commodity index all show positive growth rates on January 6, 2026 [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on January 6, 2026, has a daily increase of 0.03%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.03% [285].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on January 6, 2025, covering various commodities in the domestic futures market [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on January 6, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, silver futures rose over 7%, platinum over 6%, palladium over 5%, and tin, copper, international copper, and nickel futures rose over 4%. PVC, aluminum, methanol, and apple futures rose over 3%. In terms of declines, plywood fell over 1%, and coke and logs declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, while treasury bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, CSI 2603, and SSE 50 2603 had capital inflows, while gold 2602, apple 2605, and crude oil 2602 had outflows [6][7]. Commodity Analysis Copper - A strike at a Canadian copper mine in Chile is expected to cut production by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters face profit challenges in long - term contracts, with by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming key profit sources. China's electrolytic copper production in 2024 increased both monthly and annually. Demand from downstream copper products is mixed, with the copper foil market being strong. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics support copper prices in the long - term, but short - term corrections are possible [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose sharply and hit the limit due to positive news, including price increases by two phosphate - iron - lithium companies. However, the supply - demand structure remains unchanged, with production increasing in December 2025 and downstream demand contracting. The market is in a stage of strong expectations but weak reality, so a price drop should be guarded against [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the output plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased. The US production is at a high level. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Venezuela conflict and the EU's sanctions on Russia, bring uncertainties. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, but geopolitical events may stimulate price hikes [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate declined last week, and the January 2026 production plan is lower than the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The US military action in Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy oil for domestic refineries. The price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate is at a low level, and the enterprise operating rate and the production ratio of standard products have decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. With an oversupply of crude oil and weak prices, the new production capacity and declining downstream orders limit the upward space of PP prices. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased on January 6. The downstream PE operating rate is low, with the agricultural film season ending. The inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the weak demand limits the upward space of plastic prices. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [18][19]. PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export price declined, and the social inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New production capacity has been added, and it is recommended to wait and see during the traditional demand off - season [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fell on the day. The coking coal options will be listed on January 16, 2026. The supply may decrease as some mines approach the end - of - year production target, and the Mongolian coal imports will slow down. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of the black series [22]. Urea - Urea prices rose and then fell. The upstream factories raised prices due to positive market sentiment. The supply is abundant, with production resuming. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is limited by environmental protection. The inventory is decreasing, but the market may be over - rising, so a correction should be guarded against [23][25].

市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-116元/吨（+7）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费143美元/吨 （+10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费136美元/吨（+11美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差162.8美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-200元/吨（-5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-365元/吨（+10），酚酮生产利润-876元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润845元/吨（-12）， 己二酸生产利润-661元/吨（+54）。己内酰胺开工率75.52%（+1.47%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 59.81%（-3.17%），己二酸开工率68.20%（+4.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差121元/吨（+47元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润133元/吨（-6元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存132300吨（-6500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存77300吨（-6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.2%（-0.5%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润59元/吨（+54元/吨），PS生产利润-24 ...