芳烃橡胶早报 | 天 然 橡 胶 | | & | 2 0 号 胶 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 美金泰标 | 美金泰混 | 人民币混 | 上海全乳 | 上海3L | | | | 泰国胶水 泰国杯胶 云南胶水 海南胶水 顺丁橡胶 RU主力 | | | NR主力 | | | 现货 | 现货 | 合胶 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/0 7 | 1810 | 1800 | 14520 | 14295 | 14950 | 56.3 | 50.9 | 13800 | 16000 | 10350 | 14995 | 12035 | | 2025/11/1 0 | 1830 | 1810 | 14610 | 14410 | 15050 | 56.3 | 50.9 | 13800 | 16000 | 10350 | 15110 | 12165 | | 2025/11/1 1 | 1830 | 1805 | 14610 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The EG market has high supply, with the domestic ethylene glycol load operating at a high level and overseas device changes being limited. The arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, and port inventories are expected to gradually rise. Although the polyester downstream has moderately improved with the cooling, the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side operation, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. For the inter - period operation, an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended. There is no cross - variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3891 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton, +0.41% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3953 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton, - 0.65% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 62 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 949 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No relevant content is provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 4.7 tons, indicating a high planned arrival volume and expected inventory accumulation [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Import Expo (CIIE) concluded with significant transaction data, marking the beginning of a new investment round focused on promoting consumption and expanding investment [2] - The expo featured 290 Fortune 500 and industry-leading companies, with 461 new products, technologies, and services launched, including 201 global debuts [2] - The intended transaction amount reached $83.49 billion, a 4.4% increase from the previous year, with total attendance of 922,000, up 8.2% year-on-year [2][7] Group 1: Participation and Transactions - Over 80 New Zealand companies participated, making it the largest delegation from New Zealand to date, highlighting the expo as a prime platform for business opportunities [4] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) signed contracts with 34 partners from 17 countries, with a procurement amount exceeding $40.9 billion, accumulating over $325 billion in contracts since the expo's inception [4] - The Shanghai trading group achieved an intended transaction amount of $10.62 billion, a 5.14% increase, with a 34% rise in transactions with Belt and Road countries [5] Group 2: E-commerce and Innovation - The expo established a "cross-border e-commerce preferred platform," facilitating international brands' entry into the Chinese market, with over 10 global groups signing agreements to open online stores [6] - The medical aesthetics industry is highlighted as a key growth area, with a market size expected to reach trillions by 2030, driven by diverse consumer demands and technological advancements [9][10] Group 3: Future Events and Initiatives - A new Import Expo Quality Goods Trading Fair will be held from December 19 to 21, 2025, aimed at further promoting imports and consumer engagement [8] - The ninth CIIE is set to have an exhibition area exceeding 80,000 square meters, indicating continued growth and expansion of the event [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly dominated by traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis runs at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 660,000 tons this week, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. There is still room for further accumulation of port inventory in the short term. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol, and the extrusion of the supply side is difficult to be reflected in the short term. The future spot liquidity will gradually become abundant. The coal market has been rising recently, providing some support to the cost link. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate mainly, with obvious pressure on the upper side [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fell in the late trading yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was relatively dull, the spot basis fluctuated in the range, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,580 - 4,620 at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract. There was a transaction at 01 - 73 at the beginning of December. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,604, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, which is bearish [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis was stable and slightly weak. The ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly at night. Some spot transactions were made at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The ethylene glycol market weakened during the day, and the spot price at the low end was around 3,940 yuan/ton. The basis was slightly adjusted to a premium of 66 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol in the external market weakened. The negotiation price of recent shipments in the morning was around 470 US dollars/ton, and it fell to around 465 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The buying sentiment in the market was weak, and there were few transactions [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3,979, and the basis of the 01 contract is 104, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [9]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, port inventory, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [10]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on November 11 and 10, 2025, and their price changes are provided, as well as the basis data of PTA and MEG futures contracts [11]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester fiber production (POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber) are provided [11]. Other Data There are also data on PET bottle - chip price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG price spreads, inventory, and the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry [13][17][22][28][35][38][50][54]

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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3953 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4008 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or -0.25%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$55/ton, up $2/ton from the previous day, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -891 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in East China's main ports was 66.1 tons, up 9.9 tons from the previous period; according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons, up 6.5 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, with 4.7 tons at the secondary ports, indicating a high probability of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and the domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, and the planned arrivals around mid - November are still moderately high, so port inventories are expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. In the fourth quarter, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation due to high supply and many planned new production capacities. It is also recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3953 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4008 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or -0.25%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$55/ton, up $2/ton from the previous day, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -891 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference No specific data on international price differences is provided in the current report content. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in East China's main ports was 66.1 tons, up 9.9 tons from the previous period; according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons, up 6.5 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, with 4.7 tons at the secondary ports, indicating a high probability of inventory accumulation [1].

谨 慎 看 空 谨 慎 看 空 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价上方承压。11 月 2 日，OPEC+计划于 月继续扩产 13.7 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费 | | 原油 | | | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 | | | | 压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单持有，并购买看涨期 | | | | 权做好风控。 | | | | 成本端油价震荡偏弱，液化气上方承压。美国制裁俄罗斯风险释放，油价 | | LPG | | 回调，沙特再度下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；供需基本面改善，供给量 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强；库存端，港口与厂内 | | | | 库存均下降。策略：空单持有。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，现货延续下跌，基差走弱。装置陆续重启，国内开工 | | L | 空头延续 | 季节性回升，进口量集中到港，国内外供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent draft of the "Guidelines for Theme Investment Style Management of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" by the Asset Management Association of China, aimed at regulating style drift and investment concentration issues in theme investment funds [1] - The article highlights the recent rise in consumer stocks, attributed to the positive October CPI, government actions to boost consumption, and the seasonal shift towards growth and value styles in the fourth quarter [3] - The article provides a table showing monthly performance of high PE vs. low PE stocks from 2013 to 2025, indicating varying trends and probabilities of style dominance [4] Group 2 - Tesla's delay in delivering one million humanoid robots has impacted the robotics sector, with the delivery target now pushed to 2035, which was part of a compensation plan for Elon Musk [5] - Citigroup anticipates that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will set a tone for a realistically accommodative policy package for 2026, with expectations of slight cuts in policy rates and reserve requirements [6][7] - The article discusses the expected government borrowing scale reaching 7.9% of GDP in 2026, with a focus on stabilizing domestic demand while avoiding excessive bubbles in the real estate sector [7] Group 3 - The article notes that on November 10, the A-share market saw mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% [10] - It highlights the strong performance of consumer sectors such as liquor, tourism, and retail, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [10] - The lithium battery supply chain is also noted for its active performance, driven by ongoing demand in the energy storage market, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rising significantly [10][11]