Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the end of 2025, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs before facing sharp declines. The market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for both precious and industrial metals [3][4][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 29, 2025, the international silver price fell over 6% during the day, reaching a low of $74.2 per ounce, while gold peaked at $4,550 per ounce before dropping to $4,444 per ounce [3][6]. - Gold and silver prices have seen substantial annual increases, with gold and silver prices rising over 70% and 162% respectively in 2025 [7][8]. - The silver market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics providing strong support for prices [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculation - The recent surge in metal prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, trade tariffs, and a shift towards de-dollarization, which have collectively driven up precious metal prices [7][8]. - Speculative buying has intensified, with significant increases in net long positions for gold and copper, indicating strong investor interest [13]. - Exchanges have responded to the volatility by raising margin requirements for trading in various metals, aiming to mitigate extreme price fluctuations [14][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for metals will continue to grow, particularly in the context of green energy transitions and industrial applications, which may lead to sustained high prices [4][11]. - The outlook for copper prices remains optimistic, with expectations of maintaining high levels due to limited supply and strong structural demand [16]. - Institutions are expected to remain bullish on metals, with projections indicating that the U.S. debt issuance and continued Federal Reserve policies will drive further investment into precious metals [16].

美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数跌0.19%，标普500指数跌0.45%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.72%。 贵金属板块集体下跌，泛美白银跌5.7%，哈莫尼黄金跌5.6%，金罗斯黄金跌5%。 数据中心投资公司DigitalBridge涨9.7%，软银据悉接近与其达成收购交易。 韩国电商巨头Coupang涨1.7%，公司宣布支付11.8亿美元赔偿金，以弥补数据泄露事件造成的损失。 Praxis精准医药涨17.1%，BTIG将其列为2026年首选股，目标价从507美元大幅上调至843美元，潜在涨 幅超213%。 ...

Key Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 shows a clear divergence, with energy and agricultural prices declining while precious metals (like gold and silver) and industrial metals (like copper) continue to rise and reach new highs. This situation is influenced by changes in global demand, geopolitical tensions, monetary policy adjustments, and the development of the new energy industry. This divergence is expected to persist into 2026, with energy prices anticipated to further decline due to oversupply, while precious metal prices are projected to continue rising [1]. Energy - The global crude oil market in 2025 experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel by year-end. Geopolitical tensions and policy changes were key drivers of price movements, with prices peaking at $83 per barrel early in the year due to U.S. sanctions on Russia [3][5]. - In the second half of 2025, the market shifted from being geopolitically driven to one characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a downward trend in oil prices. OPEC+ adjusted its strategy from production cuts to phased increases, while U.S. production reached historical highs, resulting in rapid inventory accumulation [5][6]. - For 2026, the oil market is expected to face severe oversupply pressures, with Brent crude prices projected to drop further. Analysts predict a price range of $56 to $60 per barrel, with some forecasts suggesting a potential dip to $51 per barrel in early 2026 [7]. Natural Gas - The global natural gas market in 2025 showed a "high then low" pattern, with prices initially rising due to cold weather and geopolitical factors but later declining as new U.S. production came online and demand slowed in Asia [8][10]. - In 2026, the market is expected to transition from a "tight balance" to "periodic oversupply," driven by increased LNG production from the U.S., Qatar, and Canada. Despite ample supply, demand is projected to rise by 2%, providing some price support [10]. Uranium - The uranium market in 2025 transitioned from "de-bubbling" to "structural support," with prices rebounding from a low of approximately $63 per pound to around $81-83 per pound by year-end. This was driven by renewed demand from nuclear power and AI data centers [11][13]. - For 2026, expectations are for uranium prices to accelerate upward, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $91 per pound, with some estimates as high as $135 per pound due to increasing demand and supply constraints [14]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a "historic rally" in 2025, with gold prices rising approximately 70% and silver prices soaring over 160%. This was fueled by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and a low-interest-rate environment [15][17]. - For 2026, major financial institutions predict continued bullish trends for gold, with average prices expected to range from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank strategies and concerns over U.S. dollar credit [18][19]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals market in 2025 was characterized by extreme differentiation, with copper prices reaching historical highs due to demand from AI data centers and global grid upgrades. Copper prices exceeded $12,700 per ton [21]. - In 2026, copper and tin are expected to remain strong, with copper potentially reaching $15,000 per ton, while tin prices may rise to $44,000 per ton due to ongoing supply constraints [28]. Agricultural Products - Cocoa prices fell significantly in 2025 after reaching a peak in 2024, while coffee prices exhibited a high-level fluctuation, with expectations for a return to balance in 2026 as supply improves [25][27]. - For 2026, cocoa is expected to see a surplus of about 150,000 tons, leading to price declines, while coffee prices are projected to drop significantly due to increased production in Brazil and Colombia [29][32].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 截至周一美盘，现货黄金日内重挫超100美元，现货白银日内重挫7.00%。地缘政治风险降低抑制了避 险资金流入，投资者获利了结。 ActivTrades分析师Ricardo Evangelista表示："黄金价格下跌，紧随创纪录高点后，主要归因于交易者在 年底前获利了结。美国政府对乌克兰和平谈判进展的初步乐观态度也带来了轻微的阻力。" 市场正关注将于周三凌晨公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以获取利率前景的线索。交易员预计明年将有两 次降息。非收益资产在利率低时表现较好。 瑞银分析师在一份报告中表示："黄金价格正处于高溢价状态，如果美联储的鹰派转向意外出现，且大 量ETF外流影响市场，可能会出现下行风险。" 白银面临短期障碍 对冲基金巨头桥水（Bridgewater）的前大宗商品负责人亚历山大·坎贝尔（Alexander Campbell）表示， 白银正面临数个短期障碍，投资者不妨先行观望，待其消除后再入场。 坎贝尔现任Black Snow Capital的首席执行官兼创始人，他是这样审视当前白银交易行情的——仅在12月 份，白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a significant upward trend after a rapid decline in early April, culminating in a clear focus on "new productive forces" driven by policy, events, and industry developments, leading to a fast-paced and concentrated trading environment [1][23]. AI Hardware and Chip Sector - The launch of the DeepSeek-R1 model in January 2025, with a training cost of approximately $294,000, disrupted the belief that top models required tens of millions of dollars, leading to a surge in domestic AI hardware stocks [3][25]. - The performance of computing chip stocks was notable, with Tianpu Co. achieving a maximum annual increase of over 1300%, while Dongxin Co. and Xinyuan Co. both exceeded 300% [3][27]. Storage Chip Sector - The demand for storage chips surged, with prices for DRAM and NAND Flash increasing by over 300% since September 2025, driven by major companies focusing on HBM and DDR5 [8][29]. - The top performers in the storage chip sector included Xiangnan Chip, which saw an annual increase of over 600%, and several others exceeding 200% [8][31]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The precious metals market experienced a historic bull run, with gold prices rising over 70% and silver over 170% due to global liquidity and demand from emerging industries [10][31]. - The industrial metal sector also thrived, with copper prices increasing over 40%, and several companies in the sector achieving annual increases exceeding 200% [10][31]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector saw significant growth in Q4 2025, with multiple successful rocket launches and a notable IPO plan from SpaceX, valued at approximately $1.5 trillion [12][34]. - Key stocks in this sector, such as Shunhao Co. and Feiwo Technology, recorded annual increases exceeding 450% [12][34]. Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Sector - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow significantly, with a target of 180 million kilowatts of new storage capacity by the end of 2027, leading to a resurgence in the lithium battery industry [15][36]. - Major players in the lithium battery sector, such as Ningde Times, saw their market value exceed 1.8 trillion yuan, with several companies achieving annual increases over 560% [15][36]. Regional Policy Impact - The Fujian and Hainan regions experienced significant market activity due to new policies, with Fujian's stock performance showing increases over 500% for some companies [19][40]. - Hainan's free trade port officially launched, leading to strong growth in related stocks, with some companies achieving annual increases over 180% [19][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 4% last week, with precious metals leading the way with a 9.69% increase. The short - term commodity market may run stably due to the loose dollar liquidity [2]. - The Fed's loose outlook and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The short - term market fluctuates greatly as various varieties hit new highs [2]. - The non - ferrous sector may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the weak dollar and the support from the expected contraction of mine supply [3]. - The black sector may oscillate as the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors such as changes in steel mill production and raw material supply [3]. - Oil prices continue to be under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand background, despite the geopolitical tension in Venezuela [3]. - The polyester chemical varieties may be affected by supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - The short - term trend of agricultural products and oils and fats is expected to be oscillatory, influenced by factors such as weather and export expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 4% last week, with precious metals up 9.69%, non - ferrous metals up 4.97%, energy and chemicals up 2.98%, agricultural products up 2.53%, and black metals up 0.08%. Silver, PTA, and nickel were the top gainers, while tin, coke, and rebar were the top losers [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased, with only the black and coal - chemical related varieties showing a decline in volatility. The overall market scale increased, but only the precious metal and non - ferrous sectors had net inflows, with most funds concentrated in silver [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's loose policy and geopolitical risks, the shortage of spot makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds. The gold - silver ratio has fallen below the average. Exchange restrictions and risk warnings have led to large short - term market fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The weak dollar and better - than - expected GDP growth in the US provide a neutral - warm macro environment. Although the inventory is increasing and the spot premium is weakening, the expected contraction of mine supply supports the price, and the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for rebar decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The slowdown of blast furnace production cuts and the stable molten iron output need attention to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions. The supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The geopolitical tension in Venezuela increases the risk premium of crude oil, but the impact on global supply is limited. The US shale oil production remains high, and oil prices are under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand situation [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: Polyester varieties may face supply pressure from device restarts, but the strong expectation remains, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The improving weather in South America and the expected transition of La Nina to ENSO neutral increase the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The fundamentals of palm oil are less negative, and the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillatory [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns last week, with the total scale of gold ETFs increasing by 0.77% and the total trading volume increasing by 29.04%. The total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 0.86% and the trading volume increased by 23.22% [36]. - Among them, the returns of different gold ETFs ranged from 3.21% to 3.60%, and the return of the silver fund was 17.43%, while the returns of energy - chemical, bean - meal, and non - ferrous metal ETFs were 4.25%, 1.69%, and 4.34% respectively [36][38].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have surged in December, with silver prices more than doubling this year, surpassing gold [1] - Silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange broke the $80 per ounce mark, exceeding the price of a barrel of crude oil, which closed at $56.74 [1] - The demand for silver remains strong from various sectors, including jewelry, medical devices, electric vehicles, and particularly solar panel manufacturing, which consumes nearly 30% of the global annual silver production [1] Group 2 - Notable investor Peter Schiff warns of an impending historic crisis in the U.S. economy, attributing rising inflation and precious metal prices to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar [2] - Schiff indicates that significant increases in gold prices signal a lack of confidence in the dollar, leading investors to prefer gold over U.S. bonds [2] - He predicts that daily increases in gold prices exceeding $100 will become common, with expectations of a $200 increase in a single day soon [2]

在白银单月暴涨25%后，曾在今年2月准确预判白银上涨的对冲基金老将Alexander Campbell最新警告，尽管长期看涨逻辑未变，但 投资者应警惕短期内五大风险因素可能引发的回调。 周一（12月29日），现货白银剧烈动荡，早盘一度大涨6%之后出现跳水，现跌超5%至75.10美元/盎司，日内最低触及74美元/盎 司，而就在上周五曾创下单日最大美元涨幅纪录。 对冲基金老将、前桥水基金全球宏观投资者、现任Black Snow Capital创始人兼首席执行官Alexander Campbell在最新的Substack文 章中指出，随着新年临近，市场面临税务抛售、美元反弹、保证金上调、技术面超买以及铜替代威胁等多重压力。 值得注意的是，除了Campbell警告之外，来自被动资金层面的"技术性风暴"也在逼近。据，彭博商品指数（BCOM）将于2026年1 月进行年度权重再平衡。由于白银过去三年表现大幅跑赢其他商品，被动基金将被迫卖出约占期货市场总未平仓合约9%的头寸， 这一规模远超往年，可能加剧一月份的市场波动。 尽管存在短期风险，Campbell对白银的长期看涨立场并未动摇。他指出，当前现货市场与期货市场的巨大价差 ...

2026年即将到来，金、银、铂携手再创历史新高。 2025年迎来最后一个交易周，金属市场"终极狂欢"暂得喘息。 12月29日，贵金属市场上演"惊魂一日"。暴涨五个交易日的国际白银价格盘中出现两次跳水。截至北京 时间16时55分，伦敦现货白银日内跌超6%，最低触及74.2美元/盎司，日内高位回落10美元/盎司。伦敦 金现货价格冲上4550美元/盎司的历史高位后掉头向下，最低触及4444美元/盎司。 回顾贵金属市场全年的行情，先后经历了关税驱动、降息预期，以及技术回调等几个主要阶段，就在市 场认为全年行情将在高位震荡中收官之际，金、银、铂近日又携手掀起新一轮涨势，价格再创历史新 高。就连铜、镍、铝等有色金属价格也跟着大幅上涨。 中金公司近日发布的报告指出，黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标，2026年不太可能继续走出单边牛市，会 跟随美联储政策与美国经济动向出现波动。 对于其他金属的跟涨，一位贵金属交易人士对第一财经记者表示，除了宏观因素扰动，市场对于"超级 周期"的叙事有所共识，"绿色能源转型、AI算力基建对于工业金属和贵金属的需求出现大幅增长，而供 应端又受制于地缘冲突、资源保护等不确定因素，缺口进一步扩大，叠加各路 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market has shown strong performance with multiple hotspots driving the market upward, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak, which has boosted investor confidence and mitigated pre-holiday risk aversion [2][3][8] - The report highlights that the market's trading volume has slightly increased, approaching 2 trillion, reflecting optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market [2][8] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has enhanced the domestic market's attractiveness to foreign capital, while macro policy has more operational space, contributing to positive news across various sectors such as commercial aviation, 6G, small metals, and batteries [2][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market's performance is critical post-holiday, with the current market showing signs of recovery, although trading volume remains below August highs, and some funds are still in a wait-and-see mode [3][10] - It suggests that the market's ability to break through previous highs after the New Year will be a key focus, with ongoing policy support expected to favor the equity market [10][12] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, suggesting that investors should follow hot sectors like telecommunications, batteries, and commercial aviation while maintaining some cash reserves to wait for post-holiday trends [13] Group 3 - The bond market has shown a rare independent upward trend, with expectations of continued volatility, as the report notes that the bond market is in a phase of downward support but upward resistance [4][38] - It indicates that without significant positive news, the bond market is likely to remain in a range-bound state for the foreseeable future [5][38] Group 4 - The commodity market has experienced an upward trend, particularly in precious metals, with silver prices reaching new highs and gold prices also increasing, which is expected to continue in the medium to long term due to the decoupling from the USD [46][47] - The report suggests maintaining positions in gold as it is anticipated to lead the commodity market's strength [47]