Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline while gold and silver prices reached historical highs, indicating increased market concerns over the risks associated with the dollar system, with "safe-haven" assets becoming the core trading logic [1] - The Danish pension fund announced plans to liquidate $1 million in U.S. Treasury bonds, symbolizing a growing distrust in U.S. debt as a reliable asset, despite the negligible impact on the overall $36 trillion U.S. debt market [3] - Poland's central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, raising its gold holdings to 700 tons, which reflects a broader trend among central banks to increase gold reserves as a hedge against global currency credit crises and political instability [3] Group 2 - Japan's ten-year government bond yields surged by 38.78% since the new administration took office, raising concerns about Japan's debt risk and the potential for a currency credit crisis, which could also impact the U.S. given its own debt levels [4] - Despite the risks associated with U.S. dollar assets, they remain a preferred choice globally due to the lack of viable alternatives, as U.S. assets are backed by military, technological, and economic strength, making them a significant option for global reserves [6] - Historical instances of dollar and gold decoupling have shown that despite credit risks, U.S. assets can recover and even reach new highs, suggesting that both U.S. equities and gold are likely to yield positive returns over time [6]

Market Overview - The global market has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, leading to a divergence in pricing across markets[2][3] - A-shares and H-shares have shown strong performance, while US stocks have been weak, particularly in the technology sector[3][7] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index rise by 2.62% over the two-week period ending January 23, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.35%[8][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, contrasting with the Hang Seng Index's decline of 0.36%[8] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, while the S&P 500 stands at 89.8, indicating higher valuation in the Chinese market[11] - The PB ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 98.4, compared to the S&P 500's 94.3, suggesting a similar trend in valuation[13] Bond Market Insights - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.22%, significantly higher than China's 10-year yield of 1.82%, indicating a substantial yield gap[17] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 is low, estimated between 4-5%[21] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals have seen significant gains, with silver prices increasing by 26.7% over the two-week period[42] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $65.88 per barrel, reflecting a strong performance in the energy sector[42] Economic Indicators - The overall return rates for various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, are generally between 1-3%[28] - The average dividend yield for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is 3.5%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to other indices[28]

Group 1 - The report suggests a strategic bullish outlook with tactical flexibility, emphasizing the importance of performance fundamentals in investment decisions [4][7][13] - It identifies a favorable investment window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026, while cautioning against rapid upward trends in indices [4][7] - Key sectors to watch include commercial aerospace, satellite industries, AI applications, and sectors driven by price increases such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4][13] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected at 5.0% for 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and a potential GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026 [7][10] - The real estate market is still in a deep adjustment phase, with new housing sales expected to decline by 8.7% in 2025, indicating a need for careful observation of stabilization points [8][9] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "only increase, not decrease" approach, with significant spending in key areas to support economic growth [10] Group 3 - The public fund industry is anticipated to solidify its high-quality development framework, with new guidelines enhancing the accountability of performance benchmarks for funds [11] - Precious metals are expected to retain investment value due to increasing global instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, with gold prices nearing $5,000 per ounce [12][13] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry-specific data, such as cement price indices and industrial production growth rates, to gauge market trends [19][20]

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index (DXY) has dropped to around 97.7, marking a three-month low and a decrease of approximately 1.5% since the end of the previous year, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions, adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and movements in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has seen significant fluctuations, falling from a high of 159 to the 156-158 range, raising speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities [1][4] - The volatility in the currency market has led to an increase in overall market volatility, with the volatility rate rising to over 8.5%, reflecting policy divergences and geopolitical risks [5] Group 2: Japanese Economic Context - Japan's economy has faced structural challenges for over two decades, with negative GDP growth and deflation, prompting the Bank of Japan to implement negative interest rates and yield curve control to stimulate growth [2] - The GDP growth forecast for Japan has been revised upward to 0.9% for FY2025 and 1.0% for FY2026, supported by overseas economic recovery and government stimulus measures [2] - Following the election of Prime Minister Suga, there are concerns about a shift to dovish policies, despite rising inflation, which has led to increased long-term interest rates [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Silver prices have surged past $100 per ounce, a 40% increase since the end of the previous year, while gold prices have approached $5,000 per ounce, reflecting a 79% annual increase due to global uncertainty [6][7] - The Shanghai silver price has reached a record premium of $13 per ounce over COMEX futures, indicating a physical silver shortage in China, with domestic inventories at their lowest since 2016 [7] - The upward trend in precious metals prices is linked to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions, which may lead to a re-evaluation of global silver prices [6][7] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The depreciation of the US dollar is beneficial for emerging markets, alleviating debt pressures, but continued intervention by Japan could lead to rising US Treasury yields, increasing global borrowing costs [8] - The fluctuations in the currency market may trigger adjustments in risk models, leading to widespread deleveraging in the financial system, which is already exhibiting significant leverage levels [8] - The outlook for global growth remains stable at 3.3%, but risks include potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the ability of US debt entities to leverage has significantly weakened, with deteriorating government leverage capacity and rising corporate and household leverage rates that are difficult to sustain [2][8] - It notes that the expansion capacity of US demand and credit is deteriorating, making it challenging for non-US economies to experience significant demand and credit expansion [2][8] - The report suggests that the deterioration of dollar debt expansion capacity may drive a long-term decline in major global high ROE industries [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent rise in overseas commodities and technology stocks is essentially a risk-averse behavior of global financial capital in response to dollar debt issues [2][8] - It states that the deterioration of dollar credit implies chaos in global production, demand, and credit order, leading major global asset classes to gradually enter supply pricing, which may provide valuation premiums for production and non-US credit expansion capabilities [2][8] - The Chinese market is expected to be a slow and steady bull market in the long term, but it will experience significant volatility in the medium term due to the influence of the US [2][8] Group 3 - The report anticipates a style switch in the Chinese market within the next quarter, with assets driven by Chinese pricing expected to enter a long bull market, while US-priced assets may gradually become marginalized [2][8] - It expresses a long-term positive outlook on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [2][8] - In the short term, the report favors sectors such as space AI and domestic computing power [2][8] Group 4 - The report discusses the performance of the US PCE inflation, indicating a moderate inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year for both PCE and core PCE in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [7][11] - It highlights that actual consumption expenditure in the US for November 2025 also showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with core PCE consumption expenditure at the same rate [7][13] - The report notes a weakening in durable goods consumption, while dining and accommodation services showed resilience [7][13]

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

Group 1 - The surge in precious metals prices, including gold and copper, signals a significant shift in the global economic landscape and presents a key opportunity for asset protection [1] - The demand for gold has increased as investors seek alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, especially following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1][2] - The "gold-silver ratio" indicates that when the ratio exceeds 80 or 100, it often triggers a rise in silver prices, which has been observed recently [1] Group 2 - The rise in copper prices is driven by the "gold-copper ratio" and increased demand for scarce resources, particularly due to advancements in AI technology [2] - The current state of the US dollar, with a debt of $36 trillion and high interest payments, raises concerns about its stability, which could lead to increased demand for precious metals [2] - Central banks and companies are actively purchasing gold and converting assets into copper, indicating that even if risk aversion decreases, the demand for these metals will remain strong due to their industrial necessity [3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 金 衡盎 司 ， SLV 白 银 ETF 持仓增加 544,084.20 盎司。 周三，美国 12 月成屋签约销售指数月率 -9.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 3.30%。美国 10 月营建支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.10%。 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 ...

帮主说句实在的，做了20年财经，从没见过一周内两张重磅罚单落地，余韩操纵博士眼镜赚5亿罚10 亿，瑞丰达私募直接被罚没4100万还终身禁入，这信号再明确不过——A股强监管时代彻底来了，靠坐 庄割韭菜的玩法早就行不通了。 各位朋友，这个周末的市场资讯简直像开了盲盒，监管重罚、行业涨价、妖股停牌全凑齐了，每一个都 关乎咱们的钱袋子，今儿就用大白话唠透核心逻辑。 这里给大家一个避坑技巧，也是我中长线坚守的原则：选标的先看"合规底线"，但凡有操纵前科、业绩 虚增、依赖单一概念炒作的，直接pass；真正靠谱的标的，要么有政策支持，要么有业绩支撑，就像香 农芯创，借着存储涨价的东风，净利预增82%-135%，这才是实打实的机会。 再说说行业机会，三星把NAND价格直接上调100%，存储芯片涨价潮还在延续，加上商业航天动作不 断，酒泉建国家发射基地、北京启动六大航天平台，中科宇航都要IPO了，这两个赛道明显是政策+产 业双驱动。还有现货白银破了100美元，之前跟大家聊过金银比的逻辑，现在白银的工业需求+避险属 性双重发力，机会确实值得关注。 前阵子还有粉丝问我要不要追连板妖股，你看锋龙股份、嘉美包装涨了4倍就停牌核查，这就 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The global gold price has reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - Central banks have net purchased over 50 tons of gold in the first two weeks of January 2026, with China's central bank increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - Major financial institutions predict bullish targets for gold, with estimates ranging from $4200 to $5300 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged above $90 per ounce, driven by increased industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, with a projected 30% growth in global solar installations in 2026 [3] - The current gold-silver ratio is around 59, suggesting potential for silver price recovery compared to historical averages, with predictions of silver prices reaching between $95 and $100 per ounce in the near term [3] - Financial institutions forecast silver prices could rise significantly, with targets of $50 per ounce in the short term and up to $309 per ounce in the long term [3]