万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 事故扰动铁水复产，矿价震荡反复 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/24 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2246.6万吨，环比减少359.8万吨。澳洲发运量1688.0 万吨，环比减少243.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1389.7万吨，环比减少262.4万吨。巴西发运量558.6万吨，环比减少116.2万吨。中国47 港到港总量2897.7万吨，环比减少117.3万吨；中国45港到港总量2659.7万吨，环比减少260.7万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率85.51%，环比上周增加0.03个百分点；钢厂盈利率40.69%， 环比上周增加0.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range this week, affected by steel mill safety accidents. Macroscopically, the commodity market cooled down under the influence of Trump's policy risks, but geopolitical interference persisted. The domestic central bank released policy benefits, which may provide some support for prices. Fundamentally, the resumption of steel production was disrupted by safety accidents, which was a short - term positive for prices. However, there was no improvement in steel demand, and it remained in the seasonal off - season. Steel mill inventories accumulated, making it difficult to drive prices up. The subsequent demand performance still depends on export conditions. Overall, short - term supply disruptions are unlikely to improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [5][58]. - Iron ore prices fell from their highs this week, mainly due to the weakened expectation of hot metal production resumption caused by steel mill safety accidents. In terms of supply, iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased slightly this week, and subsequent safety inspections may continue to cause disruptions. Previously, the market expected steel mills to replenish their iron ore inventories before the Spring Festival when the inventory was low, so iron ore prices remained strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the logic of steel mill inventory replenishment may weaken, and high port inventories under pressure on demand may put pressure on the market again. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and may face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Trump's policies pose risks to the commodity market, and he threatened to retaliate strongly if European countries sell US assets due to Greenland - related tariff threats [5]. - **Key Data**: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. In January 2026, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, both remaining unchanged. In the third quarter of 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The US core PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range, affected by safety accidents. Macro factors and domestic policy benefits may support prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit upward potential. Iron ore prices fell from highs due to safety - related factors. Supply decreased, and demand was subject to safety inspections. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment logic may weaken, and high port inventories may lead to downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the continuation of domestic loose policies, production interference from accidents and maintenance, and cost support. Bearish factors are the off - season for steel demand, inventory accumulation in steel mills, and uncertainties regarding export licenses [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive macro sentiment, the continuation of domestic loose policies, and a decrease in shipments this week. Bearish factors are production interference from steel mill accidents, the impact of safety accidents on hot metal production resumption, high port inventories, and the weakening of the inventory replenishment logic [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: In December 2025, China's social消费品 retail sales grew by 0.9% year - on - year, lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. The GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, and the industrial added value in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, better than expected [10][12]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million. It is expected that the total automobile sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Since January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax has been halved [15]. - **Terminal - Engineering Machinery**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly. In December, the sales of various excavators were 23,095 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The annual cumulative sales reached 235,257 units, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth, with new orders accounting for 67.0% of the world market share [19]. - **Terminal - Steel Export**: In December 2025, steel exports increased significantly. The annual cumulative steel exports reached 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was due to the rush to export before the implementation of export licenses and year - end factors. In January, export plans have returned to normal levels, and export orders have declined [20][21]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [25]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the basis continued to narrow [26]. - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% this week [28]. - **Output**: The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates decreased. The five - type building material output was 8.1959 million tons, with thread output at 1.9955 million tons and hot - rolled coil output at 3.0541 million tons. Some short - process steel mills in Guangxi and Guangdong are on holiday, and production will resume after the Lantern Festival [30][34]. - **Table Demand**: The apparent demand for five - type building materials was 8.0952 million tons, with thread at 1.8552 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.0996 million tons. The winter storage enthusiasm in Shandong and Anhui decreased [37]. - **Inventory**: Thread inventory accumulated, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total inventory of five - type building materials was 12.5708 million tons, with thread at 4.521 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.5778 million tons [40]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [41]. - **Import and Shipment**: In December 2025, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment decreased by 2.511 million tons [45]. - **Shipment**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of major iron ore mines generally increased. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fenix Resources all reported growth in production and sales [46]. - **Arrival**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. The 47 - port arrival was 28.977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.173 million tons [47]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons this week, a slight increase [49]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased to 167.6653 million tons, and the daily average port clearance decreased to 3.1073 million tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased to 93.8882 million tons, the daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days [55]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Short - term supply disruptions cannot improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [60].

021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月22日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and re - discount rates has boosted market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season of the steel market, and the supply side shows a decline in global shipments and arrivals. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased while inventory increased. The production remained basically unchanged. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough, with a small rebound in the short term and strong resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the shock range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel's apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. The accident of a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and arrivals decreased. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After breaking through the recent shock range, the futures price rose strongly but has adjusted significantly in recent days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and back to the upper edge of the previous shock range. It may have some support here, but the upward trend may end, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In mid - January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, down 0.3% month - on - month, 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the year, and 5.2% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Fenix Resources, an Australian iron ore producer, increased its mining and shipping volume in Q4 2025 and raised its shipping target for fiscal year 2026 [6]. - As of the week of January 22, the production and factory inventory of threaded rods increased, the social inventory increased for the third consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased [6]. - South32's Australian manganese industry had a decrease in manganese ore production in Q4 2025 but an increase in sales. The annual output guidance for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton this week [7]. - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased, and the theoretical profit of soda ash decreased [7].

专题报告 2026-01-23 报告要点： 供应端，淡季特征逐步显现，海外矿山发运水平在总量相对高位的情况下边际趋势向下。需求 端，安全生产事故影响铁水复产节奏，需求的边际变化由增转降。供需整体边际弱化。从库存 结构看，港口库存高位运行对价格的绝对高度形成压制，但结构性问题未解决。同时，钢厂库 存偏低，临近春节前，价格下行过程中存在一定被动补库支撑。从市场氛围来说，在 12 月下 旬以来商品经历较长时间的偏暖氛围之后，近期进入调整阶段，黑色系商品作为补涨板块，同 样受到情绪变化所带来的冲击影响。 总体来看，铁矿石市场短期面临边际下行压力，价格运行重心或阶段性承压。但考虑到钢厂补 库需求、库存结构性特征以及供应端进入天气扰动因素多发季节，下方空间相对有限。价格更 可能维持震荡偏弱运行，后续则关注发运节奏、铁水产量变化及定价谈判的进一步发展。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 陈张滢 铁矿石：供需边际变化下的价格运行 黑色建材研究 | 铁矿石 近期，铁矿石市场在经历前期价格偏强运行后，盘 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 22 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 752.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | -29.5 | -31.5 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 786.5 | 784.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 17.0 | 17.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 769.5 | 766.5 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 790 | 795 | -5 | 858 | 97 | 66 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 795 | -5 | 864 | 104 | 72 | 90 | | 麦克粉 | 792 | 796 | -4 | 875 | 114 | 83 | 100 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.50 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 566,469 | -8780↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14751 | -3102↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.55 | +0.36↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | +2↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 841 | 0.00 | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 751 | 0.00 I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.20 | -0. ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3117 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 上涨 6 元/吨，涨幅为 0.19%，持仓减少 0.1 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3210 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.63 万吨。据海关 | | | | 数据，2025 年 12 月棒线材出口量 211.88 万吨，同比增长 45.24%；1-12 月棒线材出口量 1937.8 万吨，同 | | | | 比增长 61.73%。2025 年 12 月钢坯出口量 144.12 万吨，同比增长 86.43%；1-12 月钢坯出口量 1482.13 万 | | | | 吨，同比增长 134.03%。棒线材及钢坯出口量大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了螺纹供应压力。目前螺纹整 | | | | 体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大， ...

新华财经悉尼1月22日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚铁矿石生产商福德士河（Fortescue）22日发布公告 称，在截至2025年年底的2026财年上半年，该公司铁矿石出货量达到1.002亿吨，比上一财年同期增长 3%，创历史新高。 公告称，福德士河2026财年上半年的矿石开采量达到约1.215亿吨，同比增长2%；矿石加工量为1.007亿 吨，同比增长2%。 同时，该公司赤铁矿C1单位成本在2026财年第二季度为19.10美元／湿吨，较该财年第一季度上升5%， 主要原因是第一季度有利库存变动因素回归常态，同时柴油价格上涨及澳元兑美元汇率变化也对此产生 影响。整个2026财年上半年，该公司赤铁矿C1单位成本为18.64 美元／湿吨。 福德士河表示，该公司对2026财年赤铁矿C1单位成本指引仍维持不变，为17.50-18.50美元／湿吨，指引 假设汇率为1澳元兑0.65美元。 另外，2026财年第二季度，该公司通过福德士河贸易（上海）有限公司在中国港口侧完成的销售量为 380万吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are moving sideways. The fundamentals of building materials have weakened, with lackluster demand and prominent off - season characteristics. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity [1]. - Iron ore prices are moving sideways. Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and domestic arrivals have also decreased but remain at a historical high. Steel mill blast furnace hot metal production has dropped, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to potential supply shocks [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are moving sideways. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Steel mills have low willingness to replenish inventory. There is a game between steel and coke. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of inventory replenishment, which may support coke demand [4][5]. - Thermal coal prices are weakly operating. Terminal users are purchasing on - demand. Market sentiment is bearish. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3286 yuan/ton. In Hangzhou on Tuesday, rebar inventory was 470,000 tons, and the outbound volume was 36,000 tons. Nationwide building material transactions were 76,328 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand of building materials has weakened, with lackluster demand. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity. Short - term market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to production cuts, winter storage, demand destocking, profits, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore prices moved sideways. Spot prices in Tangshan's imported iron ore market fell slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was average [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and domestic arrivals also dropped but were still at a historical high. Affected by safety accidents, steel mill blast furnace hot metal production continued to fall. The 242 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the daily average hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased by 210 tons month - on - month. Port inventories continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to supply shocks if liquidity - locking factors are removed. Short - term attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill inventory replenishment [2]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke prices were stable with a slightly upward trend following steel. The main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1129 yuan/ton, and that of coke at 1683.5 yuan/ton. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and domestic coal mine production was relatively stable. Coke enterprises' procurement pace slowed down, and transactions were average. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel mill profits are under pressure, and blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production continue to decline. The recent decline in raw material prices has repaired steel profits to some extent. Steel mills are still waiting and seeing about coke price increases. There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support coke demand. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no prominent contradictions. Before the Spring Festival, the downward space of coking coal is limited, and it will continue to move sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply policies, steel mill profits, coking profits, and finished product demand [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices in major production areas fell weakly. Terminal users such as metallurgical, chemical, and power plants purchased on - demand. Market sentiment was bearish. In the port area, coal prices were weakly operating. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the import market, transactions were sluggish, and bid prices decreased [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and production area supply is gradually recovering. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]