Investment Rating - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks and suggests increasing positions during market corrections [1] Core Insights - The U.S. has initiated a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, indicating a strong intent for resource protection [1] - The report highlights a significant decline in leading stocks, approximately 20%, presenting a rare opportunity for accumulation [1] - Focus is directed towards small metals such as tantalum, indium, tungsten, and rhenium, alongside a mid-to-long-term interest in gold, silver, copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, uranium, tantalum, lithium, cobalt, magnesium, and nickel [1] Industry Overview - The report notes that the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots reached 836,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons month-on-month, as downstream sectors enter a traditional off-season [2] - The aluminum price fluctuated between 23,000 to 24,000 yuan/ton, with expectations of price pressure if inventory continues to rise [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the inventory levels of aluminum post-Spring Festival, as sustained increases could impact prices [2] Performance Metrics - The non-ferrous metal industry index experienced a decline of 8.51%, ranking 31st among sectors [3] - The report indicates a significant performance disparity among sub-sectors, with energy metals showing a slight increase of 0.02%, while industrial metals faced a decline of 17.38% [3] - The report highlights the best-performing stock, Western Materials, with a weekly increase of 12.19%, and the worst performer, Hunan Silver, with a decline of 32.56% [3] Price Movements - Tungsten prices surged by 13.53% due to tight supply and increased demand from downstream steel enterprises [3] - Silver prices dropped by 32.47%, attributed to profit-taking after a previous increase of over 60% [3] - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper prices, supported by increased procurement interest at the 100,000 yuan price level [3][4] Small Metals Focus - Lithium prices are expected to face further declines, but a tight balance or slight deficit is anticipated in 2026, which may support price recovery [6] - Tungsten prices are projected to maintain a long-term upward trend, with a focus on companies like China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [6] - Nickel prices are under short-term pressure, but potential supply constraints from Indonesia may provide medium to long-term support [4][6]

Fixed Income - Long-term bond yields are expected to decline by 5-10 basis points, with the 10Y and 30Y government bond yields having decreased nearly 10 basis points since January 7, 2026 [2][7] - As of February 6, 2026, brokers and funds have net sold over 108.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bonds (remaining maturity over 20 years), while insurance funds have net bought 120.6 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2][7] - The current steep yield curve suggests that banks may increase their allocation to government bonds as their funding costs decrease, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% in 2026 [2][7] Transportation - Korean shipping company Sinokor plans to sell all its container ships to Mediterranean Shipping Company for approximately 2.5 to 3 billion USD and focus on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), which may reshape oil shipping pricing logic [19][20] - The VLCC market is sensitive to supply-side changes, with a significant portion of the fleet expected to reach 20 years of age starting in 2026, potentially leading to a supply shortage and upward pressure on freight rates [21][22] Home Appliances - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which may lead to a recovery in valuations for home appliance companies, particularly in the white goods sector [23][24] - Recent data indicates that the inventory of commercial housing is gradually decreasing, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in major cities is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of pressure on domestic demand [23][24] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent data showing a rise in copper stocks across various markets [27][28] - The aluminum market is also facing similar trends, with prices expected to fluctuate as inventory levels rise, while demand remains stable [29] - The supply of tungsten and rare earth elements is tightening, leading to sustained high prices for these materials [5] New Consumption - Huangshan Tourism plans to invest 530 million yuan in a hotel project to enhance its tourism offerings, which aligns with the growing visitor numbers to the Huangshan scenic area [33] - In January 2025, Tmall's beauty sales grew by 24% year-on-year, indicating a stable competitive landscape in the beauty sector [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no significant driving force. The price is expected to be in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The domestic lead spot premium has expanded [3]. - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a 60% grade has been continuously decreasing. Many smelters in Hunan and Yunnan are planning or undergoing maintenance, and the production reduction of secondary lead due to increasing losses is on the rise. It is expected that the post - holiday resumption of work for secondary lead enterprises will be after the Lantern Festival. On the consumption side, the consumption of automotive batteries is weak, some enterprises'开工 rates have decreased significantly, and some large enterprises plan to gradually stop production for holidays. The lead - acid battery enterprises are starting to take holidays, logistics in some areas is gradually stagnant, the inventory of finished batteries is increasing, and the willingness to purchase raw lead ingots is low, resulting in a continuous decline in the battery enterprise's 开工 rate. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, considering the weak supply - demand pattern of the lead market, it is expected that the lead price will generally remain volatile. One can consider short - volatility operations. Also, due to the large losses in secondary lead, one can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips later [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, and Open Interest - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.10%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,535 yuan/ton, with an overnight increase of 0.15%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,033.5 dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. The LME lead spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 50.67 dollars last Friday, down 4.8 dollars from the previous week. The bonded area lead premium was 97.5 dollars, up 2.5 dollars from the previous week. The Shanghai No. 1 lead spot premium was 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan from the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 35,805 tons, an increase of 6,387 tons from the previous week. The SHFE total lead inventory was 47,824 tons, an increase of 17,240 tons from the previous week. The social inventory was 40,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, an increase of 27,275 tons from the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.80%, down 2.26% from the previous week [7]. - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 50,420 lots, a decrease of 72,439 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 52,027 lots, a decrease of 4,453 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 5,987 lots, a decrease of 4,655 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrates from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report. The import processing fee (TC) and domestic TC of lead concentrates are also provided, and the lead smelting profit (processing) shows fluctuations over the years. The lead concentrate 开工 rate from 2021 - 2026 is also shown [23][25][26]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production and 开工 rate of primary lead and secondary lead from 2021 - 2026 are provided. The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are presented in a time - series graph. The production of silver by - products from primary lead smelting is also shown [29][30]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 - 2026 is presented. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead are also provided [32][33][34]. - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, import profit and loss of lead, and lead ingot export volume from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users - **Batteries**: The 开工 rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [39]. - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 are presented [41].

★下周观点：持仓过节 周度报告——股指期货 高位题材回撤，股市切向低位 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a贵ry]金属与科技齐跌 股 指 期 货 本周（02/02-02/06）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 0.14%，其中发达市场（+0.03%）>新兴市场（-1.42%）> 前沿市场（-1.77%）。印度股市涨 3.08%跑赢全球，韩国股市跌 5.06%全球表现最差。中国权益下跌，分市场看，中概股>A 股> 港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 24069 亿元，环比上周（30636 亿元)缩量 6567 亿元。A 股宽基指数多数下跌，其中微盘股指数 涨 2.35%表现最好，科创 50 指数跌 5.76%表现较弱。本周 A 股 中信一级行业中共 15 个上涨（上周 10 个），15 个下跌（上周 20 个）。涨幅最大的行业为食品饮料（+4.44%），跌幅最大的 行业为有色金属（-8.46%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下 行，1Y 上行，利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指 数的 ETF 份额本周减少 11 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减 少 16 亿份。 ...

Group 1 - The overall A-share pre-announcement rate has improved, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1][7] - As of February 3, 2026, approximately 3,000 out of 5,478 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 54.0% and a pre-announcement rate of 37.0%, up from 33.7% in 2024 [1][7] - In the 2025 annual performance forecasts, there are 623 companies expecting profit increases and 378 companies expecting profit decreases [1][7] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are expected to show better profitability compared to small-cap stocks, with the ChiNext board having a higher pre-announcement rate [2][8] - The maximum profit change for major indices in 2025 is projected to be 55.2% for CSI 300, 82.8% for SSE 50, 54.7% for CSI 500, and 50.8% for CSI 1000 [2][8] - The pre-announcement rates for major indices are 63.2% for CSI 300, 83.3% for SSE 50, 59.0% for CSI 500, and 49.4% for CSI 1000 [2][8] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the defense and electronics sectors have shown high disclosure and pre-announcement rates, indicating a strong potential for profitability improvement [3][9] - The highest disclosure rates among primary industries are coal (81%), real estate (78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (74%), and computer industry (72%) [3][9] - The highest pre-announcement rates are in non-bank financials (96.2%), non-ferrous metals (67.6%), automotive (52.7%), and steel (50.0%) [3][9] Group 4 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests a gradual bull market, with signs of a profitability bottom emerging and ample liquidity supporting corporate earnings [4][10] - Valuation metrics are near historical averages, with a low interest rate environment providing upward valuation momentum [4][10] - There is significant potential for increased market capitalization in the Chinese stock market as long-term capital flows in [4][10] Group 5 - The industry allocation outlook favors technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on U.S. stocks and commodities [5][11] - Key areas of interest include technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up to foreign markets, driven by policy directions from the next five-year plan [5][11] - The market is expected to experience a more comprehensive bull market driven by technological manufacturing and certain cyclical trends [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental logic of "tight supply and steady demand" remains unchanged, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [5][9]. Group 1: Market Volatility Factors - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the "negative gamma effect" amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [11][12]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a reversal in policy expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut forecasts and impacting precious metals prices significantly [13][14][15]. - The "negative gamma effect" exacerbated the situation, where speculative funds, heavily leveraged in the futures and options markets, were forced to liquidate positions as prices fell below key support levels, creating a vicious cycle of selling [17][18]. Group 2: Seasonal and Sentiment Pressures - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, characterized by a demand lull and conservative funding behavior, further intensified the downward pressure on prices, as many downstream industries typically halt operations before the holiday [19][20][21]. - The collective withdrawal of funds from the market, driven by risk aversion, left the non-ferrous sector without sufficient support, compounding the effects of policy and leverage adjustments [22]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term emotional disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain intact, with several sub-sectors showing signs of mispricing and potential for recovery [23]. - The long-term investment logic for precious metals remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and unresolved U.S. debt issues, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces by December 2025 [24]. - In industrial metals, the supply-demand balance for copper and zinc remains tight, with production in major countries like Chile and Peru falling short of expectations [25]. - Energy metals and minor metals continue to face supply constraints, with lithium prices affected by sentiment and uncertainties in production processes, while rare earth elements like praseodymium and neodymium are experiencing price increases due to tightening global supply [26][27][28]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-induced turbulence has not altered the fundamental supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal industry, instead providing a rational entry point for medium to long-term investments [31]. - As global energy transitions and de-globalization trends continue, the supply-demand equilibrium in the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to persist, presenting structural investment opportunities [32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental supply-demand balance remains intact, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [4][6][17]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector index has experienced a decline of 15% over the past seven trading days following a peak [2]. External Factors Influencing Market - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the negative gamma effect amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [6][10]. Triggering Events - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a restructuring of policy expectations, causing a significant impact on precious metals, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in policy expectations has prompted speculative funds to liquidate positions in precious metals, leading to a broader decline across the non-ferrous sector due to a loss of risk appetite [8][11]. Amplifying Mechanisms - The negative gamma effect, combined with high leverage, has triggered a cycle of selling as prices fall below critical support levels, resulting in a cascading effect of forced liquidations [9][10]. Seasonal Influences - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival have added pressure to the market, with a typical slowdown in demand and a conservative approach from investors leading to further declines in the non-ferrous sector [10][11]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain unchanged, with several sub-sectors showing signs of being oversold [12][13]. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The long-term investment rationale for precious metals remains strong, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for non-ferrous metals like copper and zinc, which continue to exhibit tight supply-demand conditions [13][14]. Specific Metal Insights - The supply constraints for tungsten, antimony, and uranium are expected to provide upward price elasticity, with production controls and increasing demand from nuclear energy contributing to a favorable outlook [14][15]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-driven volatility presents a rational entry point for long-term investments in the non-ferrous metal sector, as the fundamental supply-demand balance is likely to persist amid ongoing global energy transitions and geopolitical shifts [17][18].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments last week, with small-cap stocks outperforming. The overall market sentiment declined due to sensitivity to labor market data and underwhelming earnings guidance from tech companies, leading to a 1.3% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and a larger decline in the ChiNext Index, while the micro-cap index rose by 1.9% [2][11] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain uncertain. The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising significantly by 4.7 percentage points to 52.6% in January, although employment growth has not yet rebounded [2][3] - Domestic developments include high-level talks between China and Russia, as well as between China and the U.S., aimed at enhancing practical cooperation. The Chinese government is emphasizing proactive macroeconomic policies and has tightened regulations on virtual currencies [2][3] Recent Dynamics - The market calendar effect typically shows a balanced style before the Spring Festival, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming afterward. Historical data indicates that the average returns for major indices during the week before and after the festival are positive, with probabilities of positive returns ranging from 55% to 90% [2][3] - The report highlights that 18 out of 31 sectors achieved positive returns last week, with food and beverage, beauty care, and electric equipment sectors leading the gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and telecommunications saw significant declines [10][11] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decrease in average daily trading volume to 2.41 trillion yuan, a 21.43% decline week-on-week. The financing balance also slightly decreased to 2.66 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 5.62 billion yuan from equity ETFs [11][14] - The performance of major indices showed the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.27%, the ChiNext Index down by 3.28%, and the STAR 50 Index down by 5.76%. In contrast, the micro-cap index saw a slight decline of 0.34% [11][14] Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from domestic demand recovery and technological upgrades, including technology growth sectors (TMT/innovative pharmaceuticals), advanced manufacturing sectors (new energy/military), and cyclical sectors (chemicals/non-ferrous metals/building materials) [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with the long-term reform expectations under the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improving fundamentals [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, which fell over 10% in a single day, driven by weak market sentiment, regulatory expectations, and a weak fundamental backdrop [2][4]. - Market sentiment has turned negative across the commodity sector, particularly affecting non-ferrous and precious metals, with speculative funds opting to cash out, exacerbating price declines [3][4]. - Regulatory expectations have intensified, with signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and futures exchanges indicating stricter measures to curb irrational competition and excessive speculation, leading to a significant reduction in futures positions [3][4]. Group 2 - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, fragile market sentiment, and stringent regulatory oversight, potentially leading to further testing of lower price points [5][6]. - However, medium to long-term support for prices remains intact, with supply constraints expected due to seasonal maintenance in lithium salt plants and anticipated demand recovery post-holiday, particularly in the battery sector [6][7]. - The market may require stabilization in macro sentiment and a strong recovery in demand post-holiday to regain strength, with key indicators being the production recovery of downstream battery manufacturers and potential export surges [8][9]. Group 3 - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics between the futures and spot markets, noting that while futures have seen speculative excitement, the spot market remains subdued due to high inventory levels and weak demand from downstream sectors [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by deeper factors, including cost pressures and industry competition, which are complicating price transmission across the supply chain [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distinct behaviors of precious and industrial metals, with industrial metals often acting as economic barometers while precious metals respond to broader economic uncertainties [15][17]. Group 4 - The article outlines the recent volatility in the silver market, attributing the dramatic price movements to high leverage and speculative trading, which can lead to rapid market corrections [66][67]. - It highlights the historical context of silver's price fluctuations, drawing parallels with past market events that resulted in significant downturns due to similar speculative behaviors and market conditions [71][72]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note on the risks associated with leveraged trading, particularly in volatile markets, emphasizing the need for careful risk management [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations this week, primarily influenced by international gold and silver prices, leading to a shift in market hotspots from technology stocks to consumer stocks [1][3][4] Market Performance - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 4079.71 points, dropping to a low of 4015.75 points, marking a decline of 102.2 points or 2.48%, which is a rare occurrence of a hundred-point drop in over a year [1] - The index reached its lowest point of the week at 4002.78 on Tuesday but rebounded to a high of 4104.62 on Wednesday, ultimately closing at 4065.58 points on Friday, resulting in a weekly decline of 52 points or 1.27% [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also showed similar trends, with a weekly decline of 2.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 3.28% [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector, which had been a market favorite, showed signs of retreat, with significant declines in indices related to integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, both dropping over 9% [3] - Conversely, the consumer sector saw a resurgence, with the Consumer Index rising by 2.46% after hitting a one-year low, and other consumer-related indices, such as food and beverage, increasing by 3% [4] - The tourism index also performed well, with a rise of over 3%, indicating a potential shift in investor interest from technology to consumer stocks [4]