Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This is a long-short strategy that dynamically holds long positions in commodities with high roll yields and short positions in commodities with low roll yields. The strategy aims to capture the term structure premium in commodity markets while reducing dependency on single market trends[33][35][34]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Roll Yield Factor**: The roll yield is calculated to measure the contango or backwardation state of a commodity. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with high roll yields are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with low roll yields are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Balancing**: The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the desired exposure to the roll yield factor[35][38]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates flexibility in adapting to market risks and provides stable returns even in weak market trends[34]. 2. Model Name: Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy captures medium- to long-term trends in commodity prices using multiple technical indicators. It dynamically allocates long positions to upward-trending assets and short positions to downward-trending assets[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Trend Indicators**: Technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum are used to identify price trends. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with upward trends are allocated long positions, while those with downward trends are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated trend signals[35][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively tracks price trends but may underperform in volatile or trendless markets[45]. 3. Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses inventory data to capture fundamental changes in commodity markets. Commodities with declining inventories are allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Inventory Factor**: Changes in inventory levels are calculated to assess supply-demand dynamics. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with declining inventories are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated inventory data[35][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective in capturing fundamental supply-demand imbalances but may be sensitive to data accuracy and reporting delays[49]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 3.03% (YTD 2025)[33][38] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: -1.33% (YTD 2025)[45] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 2.88% (YTD 2025)[49] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Roll Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the contango or backwardation state of a commodity to capture the term structure premium[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the roll yield as the difference between the spot price and the futures price. 2. Normalize the roll yield across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their roll yields and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures medium- to long-term price trends using technical indicators[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use moving averages, momentum, and other technical indicators to identify trends. 2. Normalize trend signals across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their trend strength and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 3. Factor Name: Inventory Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures changes in inventory levels to capture supply-demand imbalances[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the percentage change in inventory levels over a specified period. 2. Normalize inventory changes across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their inventory changes and allocate positions accordingly[35]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Roll Yield Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Inventory Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures fell over 0.3% following President Trump's announcement to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% [1] - Spot gold increased by 0.4%, reaching $3,329 per ounce [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.8%, priced at $61.96 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.7% after OPEC+ raised oil supply [1]

Core Points - China has announced a unilateral visa exemption policy for four Gulf Arab countries, enhancing its diplomatic relations and economic cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations [1][3] - The visa exemption policy is seen as a significant step in deepening ties with Gulf countries, which are crucial energy suppliers and trade partners for China [3][5] - The expansion of the visa-free policy reflects China's commitment to high-level openness and regional cooperation, as well as its ongoing efforts to strengthen cultural and educational exchanges [5][6] Economic Cooperation - The total trade volume between China and the GCC is projected to reach $288.09 billion in 2024, making it the second-largest trading partner after ASEAN, EU, US, South Korea, and Japan [5] - The ongoing free trade agreement negotiations, which began in 2004, have seen 11 rounds of discussions, indicating a strong potential for future economic collaboration [5] - The visa exemption is expected to significantly reduce the time cost of cross-border movement, facilitating large-scale exchanges and encouraging business and cultural interactions [5][9] Cultural Exchange - The visa exemption policy is anticipated to boost Chinese language education in GCC countries, allowing language enthusiasts to experience immersive learning opportunities in China [6] - Data shows that since the mutual visa exemption with the UAE and Qatar in 2018, there has been a notable increase in tourism and business exchanges between China and these countries [8] - The establishment of direct flight routes has improved connectivity, although there is still a need for more balanced distribution and reduced transfer costs [9] Future Prospects - There is optimism regarding the potential inclusion of more Middle Eastern countries in China's visa exemption policy, contingent on the political and social stability of those nations [9] - The historical friendship between China and Middle Eastern countries, coupled with recent geopolitical developments, may lead to further expansions of the visa-free network [9]

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on the market, highlighting a slight increase in the US dollar and mixed performance in European stock indices [1][5] - A legal challenge to Trump's tariff agenda has been reported, with a US appellate court reinstating the tariff policy, providing the Trump administration with some relief [1][2] - Concerns about "stagflation and tariffs" are causing a decline in market risk appetite [1][2] Market Performance - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.02%, while the German DAX rose 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.24% [3][5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% [4][5] - The S&P 500 futures showed little change, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.1% [5] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index increased by 0.21% to 99.54 points, while the euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1349 [5][8] - Gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $3,295.62 per ounce, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.2% to $60.79 per barrel [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 商品走势分化，化工板块集体拉升 ——中信期货晨报20250530 中信期货研究所 刘道钰 从业资格号F3061482 投资咨询号Z0016422 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3832 8 | 0.73% | -0.35W | 3.14% | -0.67% | -2.25% | | | 上证50期货 | 2673.6 | 0.314 | -0.724 | 2.47% | 0.29% | -0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5668.6 | 1 814 | 1924 | 3 2% | -2 59% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][15][24][38][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 22 to May 28, 2025, shows a constant value of - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 28, 2025, was - 5.39 yuan/ton. The fuel oil basis and the crude oil/asphalt ratio also have corresponding data from May 22 to May 28 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of black metal products including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are given [25] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on May 28, 2025, are provided [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are shown [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures are provided [47]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole is in a weak pattern, closely related to the downturn of the cost - end. The instability of crude oil and the decline of coal prices lead to a downward shift in the costs of oil - based and coal - based chemicals. The polyester chain, previously boosted by trade easing, shows signs of weakness due to the cooperative production cuts of filament enterprises [1][2]. - Energy - end weakness drags down chemical product prices. The market needs to see an improvement in demand; otherwise, it will enter a weaker pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On May 28, the SC2507 contract closed at 453 yuan/barrel with a change of - 1.16%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at $64.33/barrel with a change of 0.93%. - The OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the overall crude oil production target until the end of December 2026. The US sanctions policy on Russia and Iran has high uncertainty. Libya's eastern government may declare force majeure on oil fields and ports. - Short - term macro and geopolitical factors are favorable, but the OPEC+ accelerated production increase limits the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate [4][5]. 3.1.2 LPG - On May 28, 2025, the PG 2507 contract closed at 4097 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.17%. - There are signs of recovery in the profits of downstream plants in Shandong. The demand for civil gas and chemical use has increased, but the overall demand is still weak. There are multiple PDH plants scheduled to resume production from late May to early June. It is expected to have a short - term recovery but with limited upward space, so it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. The spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3580 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3625 yuan/ton respectively. - The sharp rise in US Treasury yields, tariff conflicts, and OPEC+ over - production are expected to put pressure on asphalt prices. The supply of domestic asphalt raw materials is sufficient, and refinery operations have increased. The demand side shows that asphalt is still over - valued. It is expected that the asphalt price is over - valued and waiting to fall [6]. 3.1.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. - Factors such as the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs, and reduced demand for power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. It is expected that the supply will increase and the demand will decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [7][8]. 3.1.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. - It follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to face an increase in supply and a decline in demand, and will maintain a low - value operation, following the crude oil fluctuation [8][9]. 3.1.6 PX - On May 28, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was $836(-4)/ton, and the PX 2509 contract closed at 6590(-116) yuan/ton. - In the short term, crude oil is fluctuating weakly due to the OPEC+ production increase policy, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. In terms of supply - demand pattern, the PX processing fee has recovered rapidly, and the impact of plant maintenance on PX has weakened. It is expected that the PX price will continue to consolidate [11]. 3.1.7 PTA - On May 28, the PTA spot price was 4867(-8) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 329(+16) yuan/ton. - The previous maintenance plants are restarting, while the downstream polyester manufacturers may increase production cuts. The PTA inventory reduction speed will slow down, and the polyester industry chain profit may decline. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to be under pressure for adjustment [11]. 3.1.8 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On May 28, the ethylene glycol price declined. The market was concerned about the further reduction of polyester load. - The decline on the 28th was mainly due to the decline in coal prices and the reduction of polyester filament production. The cost of EG has decreased, and the demand has declined. It is expected that the price will not trend downwards, and investors should view it with a fluctuating mindset [13]. 3.1.9 Short - Fiber - On May 28, the long - filament manufacturers announced an additional 4% production cut, and the PF futures fluctuated lower. - The short - fiber export volume in May may remain at a relatively high level, and the hidden inventory is low. However, there is still great uncertainty about future demand. It is expected that the short - fiber processing fee has limited compression space and will continue to fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Bottle Chip - On May 28, the polyester raw material futures prices declined, and the polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with partial slight decreases. - PTA and EG were dragged down by the long - filament production cuts, and the bottle chips followed the decline. The processing fee of bottle chips will be supported between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the absolute price will follow the raw materials and continue to fluctuate [17]. 3.1.11 Methanol - On May 28, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2230 yuan/ton. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and the inland price is temporarily stable. - Some Iranian plants are expected to restart this week. The coal price has stabilized slightly after the decline, and the methanol production profit is still relatively high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.12 Urea - On May 28, 2025, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+10) respectively, and the main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton with a change of - 1.32%. - The daily urea production has increased, the agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weak. The export is expected to start in June at the earliest. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate weakly [20]. 3.1.13 Plastic (LLDPE) - On May 28, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7100(-50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 128(-15) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to have a downward space, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the plastic's own fundamental pressure still exists. It is expected that the LLDPE 09 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [22]. 3.1.14 PP - On May 28, the mainstream transaction price of East China拉丝 was 7000(-20) yuan/ton, and the PP main contract basis was 107(-17) yuan/ton. - The oil price is expected to decline, the coal price has stabilized slightly, the short - term maintenance has increased slightly, the downstream demand is still weak, and the supply growth rate is high. It is expected to decline due to supply - demand inertia and wait for a stop - falling signal, with a short - term weak fluctuation [22]. 3.1.15 PVC - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4730(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 28(+5) yuan/ton. - There are many PVC maintenance plans from May to June, and the inventory is being reduced. However, in the long - term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is expected to weaken. The cost center of PVC is moving down, and the market is under pressure [24]. 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 301(+10) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand increased in late May, but there will be many maintenance plans in June, and the supply and demand may be weak. The spot price has reached the peak, and the future supply is expected to be pessimistic. It is expected to fluctuate widely [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [25]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [26]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different categories such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [27]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Data on the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [28][40][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold price is 3296.70 with no change [1] - London Silver price is 32.90 with no change [1] - London Platinum price is 1085.00 with no change [1] - London Palladium price is 986.00 with no change [1] - WTI Crude price is 60.89 with no change [1] - LME Copper price is 9577.50 with a change of 0.50 [1] - Dollar Index is 99.61 with no change [8] - Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.13 with no change [8] - British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with no change [8] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 144.36 with no change [8] - US 10 - year TIPS is 2.11 with no change [8] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 15467.85 with no change [2] - SHFE Silver inventory is 1006.25 with a change of 17.93 [2] - Gold ETF持仓 is 925.61 with a change of 3.15 [2] - Silver ETF持仓 is 14217.50 with no change [2] - SGE Silver inventory is 1574.34 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2]