国家能源局数据显示，2025年我国原油产量有望达2.15亿吨，将创历史新高。 天眼查专业版数据显示，截至目前我国现存在业、存续状态的原油相关企业超2.8万家。从区域分布来 看，广东省、浙江省原油相关企业数量位居前列，两个省市数量总和超过1.8万余家，占企业总数的 64.42%。 截至"十四五"末，原油与成品油长输管道总里程大幅增长。同时，油气进口格局更加多元，资源保障能 力持续增强。 （责任编辑：康玲华） 展望未来，国内油气产量预计"油稳气增"，2030年原油产量可保持2亿吨稳产。随着大型炼化一体化项 目投产，高端石化产品供给比例将提升，传统油气也将加快向绿色新型油气转变。 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively surged, with copper leading at a 3.6% increase, reaching a record high of 99,730 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.06%, lead by 1.68%, tin by 1.37%, and nickel by 1.31%, while zinc increased by 0.72% [1] - Alumina futures saw a significant rise of 5.6%, hitting a peak of 2,830 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2024 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures skyrocketed by 8.12%, reaching 131,000 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023 [1] - The black metal sector experienced a downturn, with stainless steel remaining stable at 12,955 yuan/ton, while iron ore rose by 0.71% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 0.86%, reaching a peak of $4,561.6/oz, continuing to set a historical high [2] - COMEX silver surged by 4.38%, hitting a record high of $75.495/oz [2] - Domestic gold rose by 0.75%, reaching a historical high of 1,023.96 yuan/gram, while silver increased by 6.6%, reaching 18,658 yuan/kg [2] - Platinum futures rose by 9.29%, reaching a historical high of 709.85 yuan/gram before slightly retracting [2] Macroeconomic Developments - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to leverage trillions in social capital [5] - The fund will adopt a three-tier structure to attract local governments, financial institutions, and enterprises, with a focus on long-term investments [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced increased investment in early-stage projects in integrated circuits, AI, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6][7] - As of November, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Oil Market - Both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil up by 0.26% and Brent by 0.19% [13] - Oil prices are expected to face the largest annual decline since 2020, with Brent and U.S. crude projected to drop approximately 17% and 18%, respectively [13] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data, reflecting demand from the world's largest oil consumer [13]

黄金方面： 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，在更低利率，美元更弱的背景下，黄金价格长期支撑不变。但是在经历了两年牛市 之后，黄金价格大概率将介于盘整与延续之间。 技术面：日线上，近期行情震荡上行，短期维持比较强势。形态上看，行情破位上行，有望打开上行空间。4小时线上，行情回 调在20日均线获得支撑之后再度走高，表现较为强势。日内关注下方4487美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 原油市场今年以来受供给过剩的影响，油价表现较为弱势。展望后市，欧美扩大对俄罗斯石油企业的制裁，石油买家购买俄罗 斯石油出现一定的障碍，即使俄罗斯的石油没有出现大幅度下降，但仍将在一定程度上为油价提供支撑。 另外，今年产油国大幅增加产量，非欧佩克国家增产较为明显。不过在经历了阶段性的增产之后，当下原油市场的闲置产能主 要集中在沙特，沙特进一步增产的迫切性明显降温，明年第一季度欧佩克+暂停增产就是最好的证明。 从需求端看，全球贸易局势相对于今年来说更加清晰明朗，暗示原油的需求有望改善。全球三大月报也在最新的报告中上调原 油需求增速。 近期是欧美的圣诞假期，消息面较为清淡。 今年黄金走出牛市，并不是单一的因素所推动，而是更多的利好共同作用 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets are closed, leading to light trading activity. After a brief adjustment, the metals sector has strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium also rose [1] - On December 26, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and major European markets (Germany, France, UK, Italy) were closed for the holiday. Asian markets saw light trading, with Japan's Topix index hitting a new high [1] Metal Prices - The comprehensive rise in the metals market reflects deep investor anxiety about the macro environment and urgent demand for physical assets. Factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Africa [1] - Since early December, momentum-driven and speculative behavior have pushed gold and silver prices higher, with expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks contributing to new highs in precious metals [1] - Gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce and silver prices could reach around $90 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] Currency Movements - The offshore yuan is currently at 7.0061, with the onshore yuan's midpoint rate set at 7.0358, up 34 points, marking a new high since September 30, 2024. The offshore yuan broke the psychological level of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened slightly, with a 0.2% drop against the dollar to around 156.17, as inflation in Japan fell more than expected, leading to increased market expectations for delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The South Korean won continued its upward trend, rising 1.2% to 1429.85, reaching its highest level since early November, following verbal interventions from authorities and new tax measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market [8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,510.54, with a daily high surpassing $4,530, marking a new historical high [10] - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently at $74.62 per ounce, with a daily high breaking $75, also reaching a new historical high [13] - WTI crude oil rose nearly 0.3% to $58.52 per barrel, with traders closely monitoring U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil transport and military actions against terrorist organizations in Nigeria [19]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are slightly lower, while Asian stock markets show mixed performance, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index leading the gains in Asia [1][5] - Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD), contributing to a 0.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 index, closing at 50,750.39 points [6] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold rising by 0.9% to 4,541.80 USD per ounce and silver increasing by 4.5% to 74.90 USD per ounce, briefly surpassing the 75 USD mark [1][5] - The rise in gold prices is partly attributed to market concerns over the prolonged US federal government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which weakened the dollar against other major currencies [1][5] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased from 155.83 to 156.25 yen, while the EUR/USD rate slightly declined from 1.1785 to 1.1777 USD [6] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, closing at 3,963.68 points, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 0.5% to 4,129.68 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index surged by 0.7% [3][6] - Thai and Indian stock markets experienced declines [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency - Crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI rising by 18 cents to 58.53 USD per barrel and Brent up by 15 cents to 61.95 USD per barrel [4][6] - Bitcoin price increased by 2.2%, reaching 89,705 USD [4][6]

Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector, including analysis of underlying asset market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 445, with a price increase of 2 and a percentage increase of 0.38%. Its trading volume is 4.59 million lots, a decrease of 1.99 million lots, and the open interest is 3.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.19 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - Open Interest PCR**: This factor is used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset market and the turning point of the underlying asset market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.73, with a change of 0.10, and the open interest PCR is 0.77, with a change of - 0.01 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 400 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: Includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.115%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.68%, with a change of 0.37% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total US crude oil inventory decreased by 1.025 million barrels (- 0.12%) to 837 million barrels, while the strategic crude oil inventory increased by 249,000 barrels (+ 0.06%) to 412 million barrels. The market showed a weak trend overall [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and adjust the position dynamically to keep the delta of the position short; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total LPG supply decreased by 52,000 tons to 1.1946 million tons last week. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate to 75%. The market showed a bearish trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy to obtain directional returns; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The MTO operating rate decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 89.49%. The market showed a weak trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuated around the historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The inventory in the East China main port increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, indicating a continuous oversupply situation. The market showed a weak bearish trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated above the average level, with an increasing volatility. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The factory inventory of PVC was 344,000 tons (+18,000 tons), and the social inventory was 517,000 tons (- 12,000 tons). The market showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PVC options decreased to a level below the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons. The market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options gradually returned to a level around the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall market. The pressure level dropped significantly to 17,000, and the support level was 14,000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The PX plant operating rate remained high, and the new production capacity was expected to be put into operation. The PTA plant inventory continued to accumulate. The market showed a short - term strong trend after a rebound from oversold conditions [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a relatively low average level. The open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong PTA market recently. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish call spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a decrease of 1.5% week - on - week. The market showed a weak bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuated at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market recently. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2000 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The production cost of the ammonia - soda process decreased, and the production cost of the combined - soda process in East China also decreased. The market showed a low - level weak consolidation trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuated at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Urea**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference increased by 14.16% week - on - week, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 54,500 tons. The market showed a short - term weak trend with resistance above [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated at a relatively low historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [14]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].