Global Capital Market Overview - The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has created volatility in the markets, with concerns about his hawkish stance affecting monetary policy expectations [1][2][9] - Economic resilience and persistent inflation have led to a challenging monetary policy environment, with the market pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [1][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, indicating a marginal increase in yields and tightening liquidity expectations [1][9] Equity Market Performance - In the equity markets, South Korea and Argentina saw significant gains, while the A-share indices, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, also experienced increases [1][9] - Conversely, the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 saw declines, with Vietnam and Japan's markets experiencing larger drops [1][9] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices fell by 2.01% this week, while geopolitical risks led to a 7.32% increase in oil prices [1][9] - The current market for precious metals is in a phase of volatility reduction, with indicators suggesting that gold and silver prices may stabilize after recent declines [3][11] Global Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a trend of foreign capital inflows and domestic capital outflows from the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing an inflow of $8.83 billion and passive funds $17.41 billion [4][9] - In total, foreign capital inflows amounted to $26.23 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $600.12 billion [4][9] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI 200 and the S&P 500, with a PE ratio percentile of 92.9% over the past decade [5][10] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have improved, indicating better relative value in the Chinese stock market compared to global peers [6][10] Economic Data and Inflation Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data shows a marginal increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, while inflationary pressures remain stable in China [7][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting inflation significantly if they rise to $80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 [17][10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 周五简直就是一场屠杀，但我们必须把它放到正确的背景中去看。 · 第一，从根本上看，什么都没有改变。 · 第二，黄金和白银期货市场中的投机水平其实非常低。对冲基金、投机者并没有深度参与这轮行情。 当然有少数人在里面，但数量非常有限。 来源：华尔街情报圈 | 作者：阿拉斯代尔·麦克劳德（Alasdair Macleod），贵金属专家、Goldmoney研究主管。2025年7月金 价还在3300美元盘整的时候，他预言"黄金即将飙升1000美元"，三个月后金价准确无误的升至他预言的 4300美元。 以下是他本周接受媒体采访时的讲话，华尔街情报圈根据录音整理： 那为什么这周会出现如此突然的暴跌？ 原因在于，2月COMEX合约到期。如果价格维持在上周、以及本周一早上的高位到期，那将会导致互 换交易商、金银银行等空头"血流成河"。 在周一，也就是期权到期前一天，他们非常猛烈地把价格砸了下来。目的只有一个，为那次到期事件服 务。一旦这个风险解除，整个星期剩余时间里，金价和银价又开始反弹，甚至在周四早上创下历史新 高。而周四，是2月合约真正进入"交割阶段 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 日内风格和题材迅速轮动。早盘黄金股和油气资源高开，但随后快速回落；与此同时，AI应用迅速上涨， SW 传媒指数一度涨超 6%，科技成为上午行情的焦点。临近中午，有色行情迎来修复，稀土永磁板块领涨。值得 注意的是，上午地产板块同样走强，低位补涨成为交易线索，为下午的风格转换埋下伏笔。午后，市场风格由成 长转换到价值，白酒接力地产迅速走强，中证白酒指数全天大涨 9.79%，成分股除贵州茅台外全部涨停，同时贵 金属、AI应用、稀土行情均显著回落。 如何看待市场风格从科技迅速切换至白酒？其一，在商业航天行情之后，结构行情基本呈现"范围更小，烈 度更强"的现象，例如 AI应用、光伏、有色金属。在这种情况下，指数维持震荡状态，而结构层面则波涛汹涌。 今日的白酒行情，同样属于这样"定点突破"的范畴。其二，白酒行情 1 月中旬以来持续下跌，存在一定的反弹 预期。但如此迅速的拉升，并不是常规的反弹&风格切换，而是偏好推升行情加速的资金同样参与其中，这也意味 着潜在反弹空间被过快消耗，反弹的持续性有待观察。其三，资金尝试推升科技时被白酒行情阻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations". The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the export's marginal support for growth cannot offset the insufficient domestic demand. The price remains low, and the credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in the observation and verification stage, and the improvement of physical work and demand is expected to be concentrated in the first quarter. Overall, the short - term domestic fundamentals have limited direct support for risk assets, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of policy effects and data [11]. - Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is slowly falling, and policy uncertainty is rising. The US consumption is still resilient but with weakening internal momentum. Core inflation is cooling, but service - item inflation is sticky. The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's leadership change expectation, increasing policy uncertainty and asset - pricing differentiation. However, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to the resilience of risk assets [11]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate medium - cap style in domestic equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; keep a neutral position in national bonds and standard - allocate 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate precious metals such as gold and silver; over - allocate non - ferrous metals like copper and tin; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4784, with a daily increase of 0.79%, a weekly increase of 1.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4%. The SSE 50 futures price was 3130.4, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8517.6, with a daily decrease of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 15.68%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8329, with a daily decrease of 0.51%, a weekly decrease of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.01% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.875, with a daily increase of 0.02%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.11%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.25, with a daily increase of 0.06%, a weekly increase of 0.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.36%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.17, with a daily increase of 0.08%, a weekly decrease of 0.12%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9481, with a daily decrease of 64 pips, a weekly decrease of 151 pips, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 409 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5479%, with a daily decrease of 3.54 basis points, a weekly increase of 5.44 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 43.42 basis points. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8164%, with a daily decrease of 1.47 basis points, a weekly decrease of 1.34 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3.09 basis points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, with a daily increase of 2 basis points [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 28, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.5, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.61%. ICE Brent crude oil price was 67.69, with a daily increase of 1.65%, a weekly increase of 3.44%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 11.13%. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.723, with a daily decrease of 2.54%, a weekly increase of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.32%. ICE UK natural gas price was 90.36, with a daily decrease of 1.7%, a weekly decrease of 12.25%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 21.11% [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 5411, with a daily increase of 4.47%, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 24.9%. COMEX silver price was 116.62, with a daily increase of 10.06%, a weekly increase of 12.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 64.3% [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 13086.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.72%. LME aluminum price was 3257, with a daily increase of 1.56%, a weekly increase of 2.63%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 8.68%. LME zinc price was 3364, with a daily increase of 0.39%, a weekly increase of 2.91%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 7.61%. LME tin price was 25953, with a daily increase of 1.96%, a weekly decrease of 1.15%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 38.26% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price was 1074.75, with a daily increase of 0.7%, a weekly increase of 0.68%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.63%. CBOT soybean oil price was 54.35, with a daily decrease of 0.11%, a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly decrease of 0.67%, and a quarterly and annual increase of 11.95%. CBOT corn price was 430.75, with a daily increase of 1%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.32%. CBOT wheat price was 535.25, with a daily increase of 2.29%, a weekly increase of 0.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.68%. ICE No. 2 cotton price was 63.64, with a daily decrease of 0.3%, a weekly decrease of 0.31%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 1.03% [5]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: On January 29, 2026, the freight rate of container shipping on the European route was 1349.09, with a daily increase of 3.21%, a weekly increase of 9.46%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 11.36% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price was 1250.65, with a daily increase of 5.29%, a weekly increase of 12.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 27.64%. Silver price was 30452.18, with a daily increase of 4.42%, a weekly increase of 22.06%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 78.31% [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 474.41, with a daily increase of 2.57%, a weekly increase of 6.89%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.59%. Fuel oil price was 2802.96, with a daily increase of 2.94%, a weekly increase of 7.01%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.38%. Low - sulfur fuel oil price was 3316.32, with a daily increase of 2.6%, a weekly increase of 6.48%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 13.76%. Asphalt price was 3472.58, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly increase of 7.28%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.39% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price was 14641.24, with a daily increase of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 0.54%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.8%. Aluminum price was 17208.52, with a daily increase of 1.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.85%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.85% [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel price was 3165.04, with a daily increase of 0.67%, a weekly increase of 0.57%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.4%. Iron ore price was 796.29, with a daily increase of 1.94%, a weekly increase of 0.36%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.9%. Coke price had the first round of price increase, and the market sentiment was positive. Coking coal price was weak and stable in the spot market, and the futures price was strong [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal price was 2848.88, with a daily increase of 0.5%, a weekly increase of 1.35%. Soybean oil price was 8366.29, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a weekly increase of 3.49%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.4%. Palm oil price was 9347.99, with a daily increase of 0.97%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.08% [8]. 3.4 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with index opportunities being better than individual stocks. Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with intraday style switching and increased option trading volume. National bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the short - end of the bond market showing a strong trend [12]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Gold is driven by the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Silver is supported by the tight spot structure and is sensitive to liquidity and the cyclical drive [12]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping on the European route is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitical emotions and the downward pressure of off - season freight rates [12]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile. Steel is supported by cost and the futures price is rising from a low level. Iron ore has a slight decrease in molten iron production and an accelerated inventory build - up in the downstream [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Copper is rising due to the significant decline of the US dollar index. Aluminum is rising due to optimistic capital sentiment. Nickel is rising due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all expected to be volatile. Crude oil is affected by supply pressure and geopolitical factors. LPG is affected by the weakening chemical demand and the risk from Iran [14]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Oils are continuing their upward trend. Natural rubber has broken through the previous high and is continuing to rise. Protein meal, corn/starch, and sugar are expected to be volatile. Protein meal is pushed up by short - covering, and corn/starch and sugar are affected by various factors such as demand, macro - environment, and production [14].

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | ...

Oil Market - Oil prices surged significantly on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing at $65.42 per barrel, up $2.21 (3.50%) and Brent March contract closing at $70.71 per barrel, up $2.31 (3.38%) [3][14] - The U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Middle East, with a total of six destroyers now deployed, alongside an aircraft carrier and three other combat ships [3][14] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production freeze policy during the upcoming meeting, with major members like Saudi Arabia and Russia reviewing supply policies for March [3][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 4% to 2831 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 increased by 3.09% to 3307 yuan/ton [4][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels (14.71%) to 19.938 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 125.8 thousand barrels (12.36%) [4][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains strong due to recovering downstream demand, but an increase in supply may create pressure in the coming month [4][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 rose by 3.39% to 3478 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments decreasing by 6.6% to 341,000 tons [6][18] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers is at 5.7%, down 0.6% week-on-week but up 3% year-on-year [6][18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions, with a focus on inventory accumulation [6][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 330 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [7][19] - Global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons in December, while consumption is projected to rise by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons [7][19] - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with prices influenced by macroeconomic factors [7][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5332 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, while EG2605 closed at 3957 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [8][20] - PX futures closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.16%, with spot prices at $921/ton [8][21] - The polyester sector is facing weak demand, with production disruptions expected to continue [8][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2282 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [9][22] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [9][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to ongoing pressure from inventory levels [9][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are fluctuating, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][23] - HDPE and LDPE prices have seen slight declines, while LLDPE prices increased by 99 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is expected to face inventory accumulation as demand weakens ahead of the Chinese New Year [10][23] PVC - PVC prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing demand [11][24] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term [11][24] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1817 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [12][25] - Supply is expected to rise as production ramps up, but demand is softening ahead of the holiday season [12][25] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to seasonal demand pressures [12][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, closing at 1224 yuan/ton, with a 2.6% increase [13][26] - The market is facing increased supply pressure, with production rates declining slightly [13][26] - Demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, leading to potential inventory accumulation [13][26] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, closing at 1087 yuan/ton, with a 1.78% increase [14][27] - The market is experiencing steady supply, but demand is beginning to weaken as the holiday approaches [14][27] - Inventory levels are decreasing, which may support prices in the short term [14][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with London gold dropping over 5% at one point and closing down 0.7%, while London silver fell over 8% and closed down 1.11% [1] - Market analysts believe that the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact despite short-term adjustments, with potential for further increases in the medium term [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent surge in precious metals is the weakening of the US dollar credit system and the maintenance of low-interest policies by global sovereign nations, which enhances the safe-haven value of non-yielding assets [1] Group 2: US Stock Market - The US stock market saw a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2.5% and closing down 0.72%, while the S&P 500 fell nearly 1.5% and closed down 0.13% [2] - Technology stocks led the decline, with Microsoft experiencing a significant drop of 12%, raising concerns about whether demand for artificial intelligence can support substantial capital expenditures [2] - Bitcoin fell below $86,000, down over 3.95%, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw declines of 5.67% and 6.66%, respectively, amid a broader retreat in risk assets [2] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising nearly 4% and breaking the $70 per barrel mark for the first time since September of the previous year, while WTI crude closed at $65.59 per barrel [2] Group 4: US Trade Data - The latest trade data revealed that the US international trade deficit for November 2025 was $56.8 billion, significantly higher than the revised $29.2 billion in October, with exports at $292.1 billion and imports at $348.9 billion [2] Group 5: US Unemployment Claims - The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, slightly above the expected 205,000, with the previous value revised from 200,000 to 210,000 [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline after reaching high levels, with London gold dropping over 5% intraday and closing down 0.7%, while London silver fell over 8% intraday and closed down 1.11% [3][12] - Despite the recent drop, the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with expectations for further increases in the medium term, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing global central bank easing cycle, led by the Federal Reserve, is likely to support gold prices, with potential for a new round of increases in the metals market around June 2026 [3][13] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2.5% at one point, and closing down 0.72%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.11% [4][12] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of demand for artificial intelligence have led to a notable drop in technology stocks, with Microsoft experiencing a 12% decline [4][12] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising nearly 4% and surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year, while WTI crude closed at $65.59 per barrel [5][12] - Recent U.S. trade data indicated a significant increase in the trade deficit, which may impact economic conditions and oil demand [5][14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. jobless claims data showed an increase to 209,000, slightly above expectations, indicating potential labor market challenges [5][14] - The U.S. trade deficit for November 2025 was reported at $56.8 billion, a substantial increase from the previous month, reflecting a decline in exports and an increase in imports [5][14]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]