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能化:地缘扰动原油反弹,多数能化日内再震荡
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多情绪回暖,能化震荡反弹
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:21
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书,期货 投资咨询资格证书,本人承诺 原油:本周一国内原油期货 2511 合约呈现放量减仓,企稳反弹, 小幅收涨的走势,期价最高涨至 491.3 元/桶,最低下跌至 484.7 元/ 桶,收盘时期价小幅收涨 1.83%至 489.3 元/桶。OPEC+产油国最新月 报显示 8 月份 OPEC+原油产量平均为 4240 万桶/日,环比 7 月小幅增 加 50.9 万桶/日,石油输出国正在实现顶格增产。不过随着俄乌冲突 开始扩大化,波兰可能被卷入战争,地缘风险增强盖过产油国供应增 大利空。预计后市国内原油期货 2511 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 9 月 15 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡反弹 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓,震荡反弹, 小幅收涨的走势,盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15995 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1. ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250915
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:28
Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]
聚酯周报:原油弱势,芳烃季节性转弱-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:24
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 原油弱势,芳烃季节性转弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-09-15 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心:陈胜 从业资格证号:F3066728 投资咨询证号:Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯:原油增产弱势,芳烃供给逐步回归 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 原油价格下跌,国内PTA装置供给端逐步回归,国内的惠州PTA供给增加,PTA基差走弱,PX与石脑油的价差收缩。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 聚酯下游负荷维持91%左右的水平,聚酯工厂的库存表现乐观。聚酯主要负荷回升集中在瓶片品种,织造端的负荷小幅回升。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存本周小幅去库1万吨,港口库存继续去库。 | | 基差 | 偏空 | PTA基差小幅走弱,PTA利润依然维持在低位,PTA市场的流动性非常宽松。 | | 利润 | 偏空 | PX与石脑油的价差到2 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250915
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:04
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Methanol Industry - The methanol market has a relatively healthy inventory pattern due to high supply in the inland and continuous external procurement by some olefin plants, which supports prices. However, demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is currently swaying between high inventory and weak basis in reality and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices oscillated, with the main trading logic being the continuous game between the supply - tightening expectation caused by geopolitical risks and concerns about weak macro - demand and supply surplus. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a range - bound pattern in the tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and a strategy of expanding spreads for option trading [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations. For PVC, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [12]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly, mainly due to the phase mismatch between the continuous increase in supply and weak domestic demand. Although export orders support some enterprises, the export's ability to digest inventory is limited. The market sentiment is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The market shows a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", and the core contradiction is not obvious. For PP, the PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, and the basis is still weak. For PE, the current maintenance is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure is small, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. Attention should also be paid to downstream restocking before the Double - Festival [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene. The weekly supply - demand of styrene has improved, and there is an expectation of further improvement in the future. The low price of styrene has support, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [43]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has some support, but the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. However, the cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fee repair driving force are limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply increases slightly, and the demand may decline, and the processing fee space is limited [47]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2379, down 0.34%; MA2509 closed at 2230, up 0.77%. The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59% [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.97%, and the overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 2.52%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37%, while the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 8.92% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent closed at 66.99, up 0.93%; WTI closed at 62.69, up 0.51%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.50% [7]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.31%, and NYM ULSD increased by 0.35%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread increased by 3.13%, and the ULSD M1 - M3 spread increased by 104.46% [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4680, unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the caustic soda operating rate data was unavailable. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed varying degrees of increase [12]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1671, up 0.12%. The 05 contract remained unchanged, and the 09 contract decreased by 1.12% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output increased by 0.11%, and the weekly output increased by 1.58%. The plant - level inventory increased by 3.44%, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [17]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7169, down 0.55%; PP2601 closed at 6913, down 0.37%. The basis of North China LL decreased by 12.50%, and the basis of East China PP increased by 5.26% [21]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.3% [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased by 1.2% [43]. - **Styrene Price and Spread**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 1.0%, and the EB2510 futures price decreased by 0.9%. The EB - BZ spot spread decreased by 2.1% [43]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 0.7% [47]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The price of POY150/48 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 1.9%. The price of FDY150/96 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 27.2% [47].
宝城期货原油早报-20250915
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and bullish. The main reasons are the enhanced geopolitical risks and the small rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.59% to 486.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Market Fundamentals - In August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 4.24 billion barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day, with the largest increase coming from Saudi Arabia and other core Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [5]. 3.3 Geopolitical Factors - A recent drone attack by Ukraine on an important crude oil export hub in Russia's Baltic Sea, which loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day, has enhanced geopolitical risks and led to a small rebound in crude oil prices [5].
综合晨报-20250915
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:34
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月15日 (原油) 上周国际油价反弹,布伦特11合约涨1.84%,SC10合约跌1.39%。乌克兰仍在持续袭击俄罗斯塔 口、炼厂等能源基础设施,特朗普亦有意强化对俄制裁,原油市场的交易逻辑仍在中期过剩压力与 短期地缘犹动间切换,但每次反弹空间愈发受限,策略方面仍以此前高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结 合的策略为主。 【贵金属】 随着美国CPI上升温和以及就业液软信号出现,上周市场基本完全定价美联储年内将连续降息三次。 贵金属维持偏强运行,不过连续上涨后波动加剧谨慎追高。聚焦本周美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍威 尔讲话对未来路径的指引。 【铜】 【锌】 LME锌库存低位,海外货源偏紧,美联储9月降息概率高,LME锌反弹斜率加大,对内盘形成拉动, 但基本面内弱外强,内盘涨幅滞后外盘,锌现货进口亏损超2800元/吨。下游对高价锌接受度偏 低,现货交投清谈。矿端供应增量预期不改,中线反弹空配思路为主。短线受宏观和外盘偏强拉 动,沪锌上方仍存反弹空间。暂观望,耐心等待2.3万元/吨上方空头机会。 上周五铜价冲高后收回部分涨幅,周内首先关注联储降息兑现 ...
金融期货早评-20250915
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 04:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Financial Futures - Domestic policies will focus more on the livelihood sector to address income - distribution imbalances and stimulate effective demand. The economy is marginally recovering, but government support is still needed. Overseas, US inflation remains resilient, and the market is concerned about the US employment market. The Fed's decision is crucial [1]. - The US dollar index shows signs of downward break - out. The short - term trend of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate depends on internal and external factors. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern around 7.1 [2]. - For the stock index, the adjustment continues, and the market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4]. - The bond market may have a certain downward space in yield this week, but the space may be limited. The progress of Sino - US talks may affect both the stock and bond markets [6]. - For the container shipping market, the SCFI European line continues to decline, and the short - term futures price is likely to maintain a downward trend. It is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions carefully [10]. Base Metals - Copper is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease, and the supply - demand situation is weak on both sides [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile. The key to aluminum prices is inventory, alumina has a supply - surplus problem, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum [12][13][15]. - Zinc is expected to be volatile. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile with bottom support. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy may decrease, and the supply is tight in the short term [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize. Policy support may extend the peak season, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [19]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon is expected to have limited upward space and may be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating [24]. - Polysilicon is expected to be volatile. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [25]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. The price is pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - For steel products, the market is expected to be in a volatile consolidation pattern. The fundamentals are under pressure, but macro expectations and pre - holiday demand provide some support [29]. - Iron ore prices are short - term strong but limited by steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to be lightly long at certain price levels. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG is supported by the overseas market. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weak [37]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [39]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions. The port pressure is large, and the supply from Iran is increasing [41]. - PP is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support [45]. - PE is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are weakly trending. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US government's "shutdown" risk, and China's August social financing and loan data [1]. - The core logic is that domestic policies will focus on the livelihood sector, the economy is marginally recovering, and overseas inflation and employment are key concerns [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The key factors affecting the exchange rate are the Fed's decision and internal and external factors in China [1][2]. - The short - term trend of the exchange rate depends on the interaction of internal and external factors, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index showed a slight volume contraction, with different performances between large and small - cap stocks. The market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates [4]. - It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the Fed's decision and Sino - US economic and trade talks are important [6]. Bond Market - The bond market adjusted last week due to the regulations on public fund redemption fees. The fundamentals show weak loan demand, and the central bank's measures support the capital market [6][7]. - The yield may decline this week, but the space is limited. The progress of Sino - US talks is a key factor [6]. Container Shipping - The previous trading day's container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The spot market prices of major shipping companies have changed [7][8]. - The short - term futures price is likely to decline, and it is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver's market performance last week was strong, with changes in inventory and fund positions. The market is focused on the Fed's decision, personnel adjustment, and bond - market risks [10]. - It is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Base Metals - Copper: The price increased last week due to the US inflation data. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton [11]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum increased, alumina decreased, and cast aluminum alloy increased. The key factors are the Fed's decision, seasonal demand, and scrap aluminum supply [12][13][15]. - Zinc: The price was slightly up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The prices were up slightly. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin: The price increased slightly. It is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The futures price declined last week. The supply and demand situation in the lithium battery industry chain has changed, and policy support may stabilize the price [19][20]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The futures price was slightly down. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, so the upward space is limited [22][24]. - Polysilicon: The futures price declined. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [23][25]. - Lead: The price increased. The price was pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - Steel products: The price showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The supply has recovered, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile [28][29]. - Iron ore: The price is short - term strong. The supply is tightening in the short term, and the demand is recovering, but it is limited by steel demand and steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke: The price is affected by supply and demand changes. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: The prices were slightly up and down. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [32][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The price was up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG: The price was down. The overseas market provides support, and the domestic supply is controllable, with slightly weak demand [35][37]. - PX - TA: The price is volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [38][39]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol: The price was down. It is recommended to reduce long positions due to port pressure and increasing Iranian supply [41]. - PP: The price was down. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support, so it is expected to be oscillating [45]. - PE: The price was down. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow, so it is expected to be oscillating [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices were down. They follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the fundamentals are weak, so it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil: The price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt: The price was down. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The prices were down. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250915
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:57
Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward
太平洋证券:板块轮涨 静待新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 08:10
Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is expected to challenge new lows, with a target set for the low point of September 30, 2024 [1][5] - A-shares are showing a strong upward trend, particularly in the North Star 50 index, which is anticipated to lead the market [2][5] - The commodity market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on long positions [3][5] Group 2: Sector Performance - The chemical, agriculture, steel, and photovoltaic sectors are at historical lows, providing a higher margin of safety for investors [2] - Semiconductor and optical module sectors have reached their adjustment space, and holding positions is recommended for potential gains [2] - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience after a recent drop, indicating a buying opportunity for high-growth stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing, with August non-farm payroll data indicating a softening, which supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward and corporate profits continuing an upward trend since 2021 [2] - China's social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, indicating strong liquidity in the market [4]