Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: April 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the context of the trade war, the market has a pessimistic outlook on crude oil demand, and it is difficult for oil prices to have room for a trending increase. Oil prices are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations from news. Consider buying call options and setting timely profit - taking. The SC crude oil futures are relatively strong due to sanctions [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $60.96, closing at $61.94, with a high of $62.31, a low of $59.87, a gain of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 26.78 million lots. Brent's opening price was $64.03, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.43, a low of $63, a gain of 1.82%, and a trading volume of 27.79 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 487.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 473.9 yuan/barrel, a gain of 2.31%, and a trading volume of 14.99 million lots [6] - **News Impact**: On the evening of April 16, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran's energy sector, affecting a refinery in Shandong. During the Iran - nuclear deal negotiations, the US continued to pressure Iran, and Iran's attitude was tough, with a low probability of reaching an agreement. OPEC received an updated compensatory production cut plan on April 16, reducing supply after May and an average of 72,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025. After the update, the new supply in May decreased to 33,000 barrels per day [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Buy call options and set timely profit - taking [7] 2. Industry News - OPEC received updated compensatory production cut plans from eight countries, reducing oil production by 305,000 barrels per day until June 2026 [8] - Iraq plans to cut crude oil exports by 70,000 barrels per day in April [8] - Fitch lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $5 to $65 per barrel and maintained its natural gas price forecast [8] - The US Treasury announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil tankers, and the US Treasury Secretary said the US is ready to reduce Iran's energy exports to zero [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][21]

Group 1: International Insights - Jefferies has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 points to 5300 points [1] - BlackRock indicates that while US stocks are under short-term pressure, they remain attractive in the long term [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that the British pound may continue to perform poorly against the euro [2] - Morgan Stanley has reduced its economic growth forecast for South Korea to 1% for this year [2] Group 2: Domestic Insights - CICC has raised its expectations for oil surplus while lowering its oil price forecast [2] - CITIC Securities highlights strategic opportunities for domestic scientific instruments due to the push for self-sufficiency [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes that the rare earth sector is well-positioned for both offensive and defensive strategies, recommending active attention [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates accelerated capacity expansion for BC batteries [2] - Guojin Securities emphasizes the government's determination to expand domestic demand, focusing on two major directions [2] - CITIC Construction Investment advises caution against bottom-fishing US Treasuries in the mid-term [2] - Galaxy Securities expects a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with increased expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：进出口规模平稳增长 一季度我国贸易出口 6.13 万亿元，实现 6.9%的较快增长，在压力下展现强劲韧 性，中国制造高端化、智能化、绿色化转型动能强劲，新能源产品继续在全球绿 色转型中发挥重要作用；进口 4.17 万亿元，下降 6%，国内工业生产较快增长、 零部件和设备进口增加，消费市场平稳向好、部分民生商品进口增加。美国 3 月 一年期通胀预期升至 3.58%、创 18 个月新高，中长期通胀预期均稳定；3 月失业 恐慌情绪创疫情以来最严重程度，特朗普关税助燃通胀前景。OPEC 将今明两年 全球石油需求增长预期下调了约 10 万桶/日，原因是特朗普的关税冲击对消费造 成了影响。尽管哈萨克斯坦表示控制供应，但该国再次提高了产量，上月日产增 至 185.2 万桶，比承诺的高 42.2 万桶。 重点品种：股指、原油、贵金属 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续反弹，纺织服饰板块领涨，家用 电器板块领跌，全市成交额 1.31 万亿元，其中 IH2504 上涨 0.54%，IF2504 上涨 0.20%，IC2504 上涨 0.27%，IM2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].

这个市场中，一则关税消息的影响力之大，足以让此前所有基于技术面的分析预测瞬间失效。回顾近期行情，我们可以清晰看到，短短三天内，黄金价格先 是大幅下跌211美元，而后又迅速反弹，三天内暴涨2275美元。如此剧烈且频繁的价格波动，几乎完全是由各类消息所驱动，再次凸显了消息面在当前黄金 市场中的决定性作用。 黄金技术面分析：从单纯的技术分析视角出发，周线大阳线的强劲表现，明确显示出当下多头势力掌控全局的市场格局。值得关注的是，亚盘在过去一个多 月的时间里，形成了一种独特的开盘必涨规律。深入盘面细节，我们可以发现，黄金美盘的低点3220-3215区域成为了多空强弱的关键分水岭。当价格运行 于该区域上方时，市场呈现出明显的强势特征；一旦价格跌破这一区域，市场则极有可能转向弱势格局。 同样亚盘回撤低点3185-3190区域，也构成了多空的重要分界线，价格维持在此区域之上，多头占据主导；若不幸跌破，市场很可能迅速切换至空头模式， 甚至引发快速暴跌行情。展望上方空间，目前仍存在较大的不确定性，投资者可重点关注3245-3250区域的新高突破情况，随后则是3265-3260区域以及具有 重要心理意义的3300美元大关。由于周末 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in social financing growth and the importance of monitoring tariff developments, particularly in relation to the U.S. trade policies and their impact on various sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Sector - In the stock index, the electronic sector led the gains following Trump's exemption of electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs," with total market turnover reaching 1.39 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.756 billion yuan to 1.802312 trillion yuan [2][8]. - The A-share market has shown resilience against downward pressure from tariffs, with implied volatility significantly decreasing, indicating improved market confidence [2][8]. Energy Sector - In the oil market, the SC futures rose by 1.59%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration downgraded global oil demand forecasts, while Trump announced a staggering 145% tariff on the second-largest economy and largest oil importer [3][10]. - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 was significantly reduced to $67.87 per barrel from a previous estimate of $74.22 [3][10]. Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to strengthen, reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and market uncertainties. The market anticipates potential quantitative easing and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][18]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and inflationary pressures has further propelled gold's strong performance [4][18]. Agricultural Products - In the agricultural sector, the U.S. temporarily suspended tariffs on certain countries, leading to a rebound in soybean prices. The USDA report did not adjust key figures for U.S. soybean production, but raised the crushing data to 2.42 billion bushels [29][30]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index experienced fluctuations, with the SCFI for the European line showing a slight increase. However, the overall demand for container shipping is expected to decline due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [31].

――宏观经济周报 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 4 月 11 日 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宏观经济分析报告 5 波动加剧更看政策耐心 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_I 芃 ndInvest] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 风险提示：1.地缘政治风险：全球经贸局势不确定性抬升，或对市场风险 偏好形成扰动。2.经济和政策变化超预期：近来海外经济波动加剧，国内 经济正处于转型阶段，基本面超预期变动易引起相关政策调整。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 证 券 研 究 报 宏 观 研 究 告 宏 观 周 报 就外围环境而言， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy effect of boosting consumption is gradually emerging. In March, the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI rebounded significantly, showing positive price changes [1][7]. - Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][13]. - Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about the future of Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - For A - shares, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on policies to boost the domestic economy [4][5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the EU agreed to suspend counter - measures against US tariffs for 90 days, and preparations for further counter - measures are ongoing [6]. Domestic News - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI rose by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes [1][7]. Industry News - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up, help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market, and carry out activities such as the "China Tour of High - quality Foreign - trade Products" [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, the European STOXX 50 rose by 3.50%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.61%, the US dollar index fell by 1.97%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 3.53%, London gold rose by 3.02%, London silver rose by 0.78%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After a sharp drop in US stocks and a slight decline in A50, the stock index rebounded significantly. The "stabilizing the market" combination of policies since April 7 has boosted market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on domestic economic - boosting policies [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined. The central bank's net cash withdrawal, the slowdown of US inflation, and the possibility of the central bank's policy adjustment are factors affecting Treasury bonds. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices are expected to be supported, while long - term prices may fluctuate more [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose slightly at night. The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth. Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Similar to crude oil, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the reduction of global oil demand forecast, short - term bearish on oil prices [14]. - **Rubber**: The market is still concerned about tariffs. The demand outlook is poor, but the supply side has some support. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the rubber price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by US tariffs and the increase in crude oil supply, the international oil price decline dragged down polyolefins. Pay attention to cost and demand changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. Soda ash futures were in a narrow - range consolidation, with weak supply - demand fundamentals [18]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price is weak due to insufficient demand and cost support [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol futures price is under pressure due to rising inventory and limited improvement in downstream orders [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and inventory [22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and smelting output [23]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to tariff uncertainties [24]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertainty of nickel ore supply and other factors [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, demand increased, and inventory increased. The lithium price may decline further if production is not adjusted [26]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on black commodities is limited. Iron ore demand has support, but there is medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Steel**: The direct impact of tariffs on steel is limited, but emotions may suppress the price. Pay attention to the resumption of production by steel mills and demand recovery [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. Pay attention to the digestion of upstream inventory and the performance of terminal demand [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by cost and demand. Pay attention to steel procurement and inventory digestion [30][31]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The night - trading prices of soybean and palm oil were strongly volatile. The March palm oil supply - demand report in Malaysia had a neutral impact, and the rise in oil prices will boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - **Protein Meal**: The night - trading prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weakly volatile. The far - month soybean meal price has support due to possible changes in US soybean planting area and import volume [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the market risk preference rebounded. The traditional peak season of the European line is uncertain, and it is necessary to pay attention to shipping company's capacity control and price increases [34].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021 ...

Economic Indicators - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with a notable narrowing of the decline; PPI also fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal and international factors [1][6][7] - Core CPI showed a significant rebound, increasing by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in supply-demand structure and some positive price changes [1][7] Commodity Market - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowering global oil demand forecasts; concerns over economic growth due to Trump's tariff policies are rising [2][11] - Gold prices continued to strengthen as U.S. core CPI for March fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, below market expectations, while market uncertainty continues to drive demand for gold [3][19][20] Stock Market - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, while A-shares showed resilience against tariff pressures, supported by coordinated efforts from various financial authorities to stabilize the market [4][9] - The trading volume in the stock market reached 1.66 trillion yuan, with notable increases in various stock index futures [4][9] International News - The European Commission announced a 90-day suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., while preparations for further measures continue if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [5] Domestic Policy - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized the commitment to high-level opening-up and support for foreign trade enterprises facing export challenges, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption [8] Financial Market - The bond market showed mixed results, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.6475%; the central bank's operations indicated a tightening of liquidity [10] - The market anticipates potential monetary policy adjustments, including possible interest rate cuts, in response to domestic and international economic conditions [10] Agricultural Products - Malaysian palm oil production in March increased by 16.76% month-on-month, with exports rising slightly; however, the overall impact of U.S. tariff policies on agricultural products remains a concern [31][32] Shipping Index - The European shipping index saw a rebound due to improved market sentiment following Trump's tariff policy reversal, with contracts nearing limit-up levels [33]