首席点 评： 白银闪亮，黑色暗淡 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判。 美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增长超出预期。短期降 息预期降温，黄金出现回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、已经景气景气好于预期的带动下 继续走强，金银比价进一步修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提 高至 50% ，市场担忧关税会进一步蔓延至贵金属。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，对美国债务 问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势，不过近期数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小。短期内美联储难有动 作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，而美 联储短期内难有快速降息。黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内如有有关美国债务问题发酵或是美 联储重新 QE 等动作，或提供反弹动力，整体上呈现震荡态势。白银突破后短期延续强势。 钢材 ： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水 ...

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. The methanol futures contract 2509 may show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad are likely to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.80% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 86,900 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, and the general trade inventory was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 0.25%. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The China Warehousing Index was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, about 83,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 5% from April and an increase of about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 435,500, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [8][9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, a slight increase of 0.38% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.81% month - on - month, and a significant increase of 10.55% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9859 million tons, a slight increase of 19,200 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 71,900 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 290,900 tons from the same period last year. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.40%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.03%, a slight decrease of 3.82% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was 87.82%, a slight increase of 3.90% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was 45.09%, a significant increase of 5.30% week - on - week. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.97%, a slight increase of 1.06 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 4.24 percentage points month - on - month. As of June 6, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 133 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 118 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant decrease of 205 yuan/ton month - on - month. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 458,400 tons, a significant increase of 64,000 tons week - on - week, a slight increase of 43,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1,800 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 370,600 tons, a slight increase of 15,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 66,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 22,500 tons from the same period last year [10][11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 461, a slight decrease of 4 rigs week - on - week and a decrease of 35 rigs from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.408 million barrels, a slight increase of 7,000 barrels per day week - on - week and an increase of 308,000 barrels per day year - on - year. - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 436 million barrels, a significant decrease of 4.304 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19.863 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.086 million barrels, a slight increase of 576,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 401.8 million barrels, a slight increase of 509,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.4%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 2.00 percentage points year - on - year. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 167,957 contracts, a slight increase of 2,263 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts or 5.75% from the May average. As of June 3, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 155,519 contracts, a significant increase of 7,688 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts or 14.74% from the May average [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,750 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,725 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | -75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | 2,277 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +63 yuan/ton | -13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 474.3 yuan/barrel | +8.2 yuan/barrel | -23.6 yuan/barrel | -8.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [17][30][43].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States have led to significant shifts in trade patterns, particularly in the oil sector, with China halting imports of U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the lowest U.S. crude oil export levels since 2020 [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, initiated by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade deficits and intellectual property concerns [1][3]. - China responded with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on U.S. products, significantly impacting U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3]. - The trade conflict escalated with the U.S. targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, leading to further tariffs on $1.2 trillion and $1.8 trillion worth of Chinese goods [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has increased from $950.2 billion in 2018 to $1,211.75 billion in 2024, indicating that the tariffs have not achieved their intended goal of reducing the trade deficit [7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs have been passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and consumers, leading to increased prices and living costs in the U.S. [7]. - Despite facing some export pressures, China has shown resilience by expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships, maintaining stable economic growth [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The halt in U.S. crude oil imports by China is attributed to the U.S. tariff policies, which have diminished the price advantage of U.S. crude oil for China [8]. - The U.S. shale oil producers are projected to face losses of at least $10 billion due to the absence of the Chinese market, with U.S. crude oil exports dropping to 3.883 million barrels per day, a 4% decrease [8]. - China is actively seeking to diversify its energy imports, with agreements in place with Russia and Qatar to secure alternative oil and gas supplies [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The trade war has disrupted global supply chains, forcing multinational companies to reallocate resources and adjust production strategies, thereby increasing operational costs and risks [10]. - The unilateral actions by the U.S. have undermined the multilateral trade system, leading to slower progress in global trade negotiations and increasing trade disputes among nations [10]. - Some Southeast Asian countries have benefited from the trade war as they become alternative production bases for multinational companies, while those reliant on U.S.-China trade face economic slowdowns [10].

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight decline in May, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening demand in certain sectors, supported by holiday consumption and a recovery in travel services [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while some fresh fruits and fish saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][3] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends, particularly in consumer goods [3][4] - Prices in high-tech industries, such as integrated circuits and wearable devices, increased year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for high-tech products is growing, leading to price increases in related industries, while the prices in the solar and lithium battery sectors showed a narrowing decline [5] - The positive impact of macroeconomic policies is expected to further stimulate domestic demand and promote reasonable price recovery in the future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views Crude Oil - The short - term oil price may strengthen slightly due to macro - economic factors like stable US unemployment, potential Fed rate cuts, and progress in China - US trade talks, but the loose supply restricts the rebound space. Geopolitical conflicts may affect supply expectations. Suggest short - term participation in the rebound, with WTI in the range of [60, 70], Brent in [62, 72], and SC in [450, 500]. Consider long - volatility strategies in the options market [2]. Benzene Ethylene - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The benzene market has increasing supply and demand, but supply growth is greater. High imports are expected to continue. Benzene inventory de - stocking is difficult, dragging down benzene ethylene. Benzene ethylene supply increases while demand decreases, with inventory starting to accumulate. Maintain a short - selling approach, paying attention to raw material resonance and macro risks [8]. PE and PP - PE inventory accumulates at the beginning of the month, with slight de - stocking of social inventory. Supply and demand are in a state of pre - de - stocking, with limited upward and downward drivers. PP has new capacity coming online from June to July, facing seasonal demand slumps and inventory accumulation pressure. Suggest short - selling at high prices [13]. Polyester Industry - PX supply has increased, but there is a de - stocking expectation in June. It is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. PTA's short - term support is strong, and it is advisable to short at high levels. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand structure is good in June, with an expected short - term range oscillation. Short - fiber's absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and attention should be paid to factory production cuts. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be supported in June [34]. Methanol - The supply side is loose, and the demand side's MTO load increases while downstream profits decline. The price should be range - traded between 2200 - 2350, and inventory may shift from implicit to explicit accumulation [38]. Urea - The current market has high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation, putting downward pressure on the market. Only export expectations provide limited support. Pay attention to the start of agricultural top - dressing in mid - June and export port collection progress [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, and demand is supported by alumina. Consider holding 7 - 9 calendar spreads. PVC may oscillate in the short term, but in the long run, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. Maintain a short - selling approach [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose 0.01 to 66.48 dollars/barrel, WTI rose 0.02 to 64.60 dollars/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased slightly [2]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB decreased 0.08 to 207.60 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD rose 0.33 to 212.86 cents/gallon. Some product oil spreads and cracking spreads changed [2]. Benzene Ethylene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) rose 1.1 to 66.5 dollars/barrel. Some raw material prices such as CFR China pure benzene decreased slightly [5]. - **Spot and Futures**: Benzene ethylene's spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and its basis and monthly spreads changed [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Some overseas quotes were stable, and the import profit increased [7]. - **Industrial Chain**: The开工率 of some products changed, and the inventory of most products increased [8]. PE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Some futures prices and spreads of PE and PP changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE inventory accumulated at the beginning of the month, and the开工率 of some devices increased [13]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Some downstream polyester product prices and cash flows changed [34]. - **PX - Related**: PX supply increased, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA's supply - demand situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG's supply - demand and inventory situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Some methanol futures prices and spreads changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory increased, and the开工率 of some upstream and downstream devices changed [38]. Urea - **Futures and Spreads**: Some futures prices and spreads changed [41]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production and inventory data changed [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Some spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [45]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes were stable, and export profits changed [46][47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of some devices and the inventory of some products changed [48][49][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data eases market concerns about an impending economic slowdown, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino-US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - For different asset classes, the report provides short - term outlooks: stocks may be short - term volatile with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Overseas**: In May, the US non - farm payroll employment increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The better - than - expected data led to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's May PMI data improved, indicating continued expansion of overall economic output and accelerated economic growth, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The Sino - US leaders' call released positive signals and also boosted domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Outlook**: Stocks may be short - term volatile, with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as metals, communication services, and trade, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino - US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The short - term trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and go long [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market showed a significant divergence, with silver strongly breaking through and driving the gold - silver ratio to quickly decline. Employment data concerns increased market volatility. There are still uncertainties in trade negotiations. Silver has a technical breakthrough and catch - up demand, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Canadian wildfires and decent US employment data led to a slight increase in oil prices. The impact of OPEC+ production increase remains at the long - term structural level, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the near term and may weaken in the long term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are consolidating, and the asphalt market is in a narrow - range shock. Demand has recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's operating rate has slightly increased, and PX demand will rise later. The supply will be tight in the future, but it will maintain a short - term shock pattern [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to continue to increase in June. The downstream demand is in a negative feedback state, and it may shift to slight inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be bearish on high prices [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the speculation on ethane imports was falsified, and with the coal price just showing signs of bottoming out, the cost - pricing logic still exerts pressure on the market. Supply will increase significantly, and it may maintain a shock pattern in the near term [8]. - **Short Fibre**: It generally maintains a weak shock pattern. Terminal orders have recovered slower than expected, and downstream operating rates are expected to decrease. It will continue to operate in a shock in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: Inventories in the inland and ports are rising. The port inventory accumulation process may slow down. Supply is loose, and demand is fair. It is expected to shock and repair in the short term, and prices may decline in the medium - to - long term [8]. - **PP**: Production is increasing, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising significantly. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE**: Plants are restarting, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising. The price is expected to move down due to the production - expansion expectation [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US leaders' call restarts the negotiation, but the possibility of continued overly optimistic results is low, and attention may return to high - tariff risks. The copper ore supply is relatively tight, production is high, and demand may decline marginally. It will be in a short - term shock [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is rigid, production is high, and imports have increased significantly. Demand may decline marginally, but there is still an effect of export rush. There is no major substantial negative news in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of domestic tin ore is tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories have decreased. Tin prices may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside is limited [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the basis, price ratio, and spread data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates in June 2025, which can help investors understand the market conditions and potential investment opportunities of these commodities [2][6][16][24][37][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented, and the basis is negative. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of INE crude oil and fuel oil, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided. The basis of INE crude oil is negative [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of various chemical commodities such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are given [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided [24] 3.4.2 London Market - LME price premium or discount, Shanghai - London price ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 6, 2025, are given [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [37][39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - month spread data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current negotiation between the US and Iran shows a sign of easing, which is expected to put pressure on oil prices. However, considering the current risk - return ratio, it is not suitable to short - sell, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For methanol, due to sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there is no obvious price trend. Given the low basis at the same period, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is recommended to take a short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, in the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June due to reduced new production capacity and inventory reduction [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned production capacity release and seasonal weakening of demand [19]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. - For ethylene glycol, the port inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures rose $1.52, or 2.40%, to $64.77; Brent's main crude oil futures rose $1.36, or 2.08%, to $66.65; INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan, or 0.52%, to 466.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 8.48 million barrels, a 5.66% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.13 million barrels to 14.96 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 6.83 million barrels, a 6.44% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.28 million barrels to 5.28 million barrels, a 5.58% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.05 million barrels to 6.63 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; the total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 42.19 million barrels, a 1.45% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 2264 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 48 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and is at a high level in the same period, with corporate profits falling. Demand has slightly improved, but the overall supply is still abundant, and there may be a further decline [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 6, the 09 - contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1720 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 100 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, while demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are in a volatile consolidation [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls expect production cuts due to weather and policies in Southeast Asia, while bears believe in weak demand and potential over - supply [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - long or neutral approach with short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 4790 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4700 (+ 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 90 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 75 (- 8) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Cost is stable, production is expected to increase, while downstream demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 7066 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7135 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of 69 yuan/ton, weakening by 22 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: New production capacity in June is small, and inventory is being reduced. However, it is the seasonal off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain volatile [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, the main - contract closed at 6925 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 195 yuan/ton, weakening by 14 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There is a planned production capacity release in June, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 16 yuan to 6556 yuan, the PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 818 dollars, and the basis was 218 yuan (- 34), with a 9 - 1 spread of 180 yuan (- 2) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The maintenance season is ending, de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4652 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan, the basis was 225 yuan (+ 9), and the 9 - 1 spread was 136 yuan (- 2) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is still in the maintenance season, demand is stable, and it will continue to de - stock. The processing fee is supported, and it is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 22 yuan to 4261 yuan, the East China spot price fell 17 yuan to 4408 yuan, the basis was 123 (- 7), and the 9 - 1 spread was 21 yuan (- 10) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].