Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policies, domestic and overseas monetary policies, and trade negotiations. Different asset classes show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. In the bond market, it is advisable to be cautious on the long - end and focus on the short - end. In the commodity market, different strategies are proposed for each commodity based on their fundamentals [2][4][6]. Summary by Category Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.65%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.36%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 129.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.49 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: The National Development and Reform Commission is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan this year. The Financial Regulatory Administration has established 74 private equity investment funds to support investment in science and technology innovation enterprises. The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms [2]. - **Funding**: The margin trading balance increased by 7.22 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 11.80bp to 1.5390%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 2.67bp to 3.0673%, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.28bp to 1.6330%, and the credit spread decreased by 1.39bp to 143bp [2]. - **PE, PB, Dividend Yield, and Futures Basis Ratio**: PE of CSI 300 is 12.45, etc.; PB of CSI 300 is 1.30, etc.; dividend yield of CSI 300 is 3.52%, etc.; futures basis ratio of IF, IC, IM, and IH shows different values [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts rose 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively [5]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission supports private enterprises to participate in major projects. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged on May 7, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate on May 8 [5][6]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 158.6 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday, with a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious on the long - end as the long - end interest rate has priced in the interest rate cut expectation. The short - end is more cost - effective. Pay attention to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the UK, and Germany is also working on resolving trade disputes. Overseas trade risks are released, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices. The US labor market data is still resilient [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for price corrections to go long on gold. Be cautious on silver and consider short - term shorting or waiting [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper rose 0.73% to 9474 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The copper raw material is in short supply, and the inventory is declining. However, due to inflation expectations and macro uncertainties, copper prices face adjustment pressure [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose 1.18% to 2408 US dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 19570 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is under pressure due to tariff policies and weak manufacturing, but inventory reduction provides short - term support [11]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.22% to 22036 yuan/ton. Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc prices may decline further [12]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead index rose 0.50% to 16774 yuan/ton. Lead prices may oscillate in a range in the medium term and show a weak short - term trend [13]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 0.29% to 124000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.35% to 15575 US dollars/ton. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 0.10% to 263090 yuan/ton. The supply of tin may turn loose in the future, and tin prices may decline [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The MMLC index fell 0.76%. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has stopped increasing. Pay attention to market changes [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose 3.33% to 2793 yuan/ton. Due to uncertainties in production capacity, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.04% to 12705 yuan/ton. The market is in a game between policies and fundamentals, and the price may oscillate [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar main contract fell 1.48% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.80% to 3191 yuan/ton. The traditional peak season is over, and the demand for steel products is weakening, and the price may oscillate weakly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract fell 2.05% to 693.50 yuan/ton. The supply has slightly decreased, and the demand may peak and decline. The price may be weak [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices may be weak as the inventory has increased. Soda ash supply is high, and the price may also be weak [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon rose 2.86% to 5758 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.77% to 5472 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see as both are in a downward trend [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon rose 0.30% to 8315 yuan/ton. It is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are oscillating. Thailand may delay rubber tapping, which is a potential positive factor. The demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is recommended to trade with a neutral strategy [35][36][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil rose 4.02% to 60.28 US dollars, Brent crude oil rose 3.56% to 63.12 US dollars, and INE crude oil fell 1.54% to 461 yuan. It is recommended to take profits on dips and consider short - term long positions [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract of methanol fell 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go short [42]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract of urea fell 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point to go long [43]. - **Styrene**: The 06 - contract of styrene fell 105 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract of PVC fell 37 yuan to 4839 yuan. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [45][46]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 23 yuan to 4222 yuan. The industry is in a de - stocking stage, but there are risks in the medium term. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [47]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract of PTA rose 80 yuan to 4546 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The short - term valuation has support [48]. - **Para - xylene**: The 09 - contract of para - xylene rose 116 yuan to 6404 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the short - term valuation has support, but the price increase is limited by crude oil [49][50]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price may oscillate as the supply is increasing and the demand is in the off - season [51]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price may oscillate weakly as the supply is stable and the demand is declining [52]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds and wait and see in the short term [54]. - **Egg**: The egg price was stable or declined. It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply is high [55]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose slightly. The future soybean supply is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal price may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [56][57]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil export increased, and the production also increased. The oil price may decline due to crude oil and production factors, but there may be support in the medium term [58][59]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic sugar market has good sales, but the price may decline as the international price drops [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to trade negotiations and inventory changes [62][63].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]