Group 1 - In 2025, major asset performance showed significant differentiation driven by three forces: financial cycle downturn, global order restructuring, and deepening industrial revolution. Gold prices surged over 60%, A-shares entered a structural bull market, while the bond market faced fluctuations and real estate prices continued to adjust [1][75]. Group 2 - The macro asset allocation framework for 2026 indicates a complex transition period. The strategic layer suggests maintaining a defensive stance due to the ongoing financial cycle downturn. The tactical layer anticipates a combination of economic recovery and financial easing, providing opportunities in commodities and equities [2][76]. Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the stock market may experience a profit-driven rally supported by improved economic fundamentals and ample liquidity. Key focus areas include technology sectors like AI and semiconductors, high-quality export sectors, and renewable energy benefiting from anti-involution policies [3][77]. Group 4 - The bond market is expected to see a wide range of fluctuations with a moderate upward trend in yields, projected to be between 1.6% and 2.1%. The key factors influencing this include a rebound in PPI and alleviation of the "asset shortage" issue, with potential trading opportunities arising from small rate cuts early in the year [3][43][77]. Group 5 - In the commodities market, structural differentiation is expected to continue, with basic metals like copper and aluminum benefiting from global fiscal expansion and liquidity easing. Traditional energy sources like oil may perform relatively poorly due to the financial cycle downturn and supply pressures [3][59][77]. Group 6 - Gold is anticipated to enter a phase of high-level consolidation, with long-term support from weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases. However, short-term volatility may arise from price corrections and geopolitical factors [3][68][77].

2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.22%报 112.660 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.10%报 108.150 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.970 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.490 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 19 日以固定利率、数量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

【全球资产"集体狂欢"一周全复盘：降息之后，反弹行情为何如此同步？】 上周，全球市场迎来一场罕见的"共振式"反弹：美元在利空出尽后强势回升，美股在AI浪潮与通胀降温 下大涨，油价因地缘风险与库存骤降而飙升，基本金属也因宏观宽松与供应紧张集体走强。 表面是四大品种各唱各戏，实则共享一条核心主线：美联储政策"靴子落地"后的预期重塑与流动性转 向。降息为市场注入宽松预期，而通胀数据的超预期下滑则消除了最大的紧缩恐惧。在此背景下，风险 偏好全面回暖，资金从债券等避险资产中涌出，寻找新的方向——无论是押注AI革命的科技股，还是 博弈地缘风险的原油，抑或是受益于美元走弱和绿色转型的基本金属，都成为这股流动性的"蓄水池"。 这不仅仅是技术性反弹，更是宏观叙事切换下的资产重估。反弹能否延续？本周将迎来两大终极考验： 美联储经济状况褐皮书将揭示降息后的真实经济底色，而OPEC+会议则决定着油价的风险溢价能否维 持。市场的下一个方向，或许就藏在这两份报告的字里行间之中。 【岁末拐点已至：全球宽松预期、国内稳增长与金属"供需缺口"的三重奏】 事件与地缘：美委紧张局势支撑原油及避险资产；国内人大常委会审议多项法律，关注对有色等行业的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - **Oscillating**: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - **Oscillating偏多**: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - **偏空**: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - **Oscillating**: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - **偏多**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - **Regulatory actions**: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - **Stock market**: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - **International central bank policies**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - **Domestic policies**: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - **Corporate news**: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - **Stock index futures**: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - **Coking coal and coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - **Apples**: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - **Red dates**: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude oil**: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - **Fuel oil**: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - **Caustic soda**: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - **Polyester industry chain**: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - **Liquefied petroleum gas**: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - **Pulp**: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - **Log**: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - **Urea**: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4337.60 with a change of 4.25 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 65.79 with a change of - 0.51 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1924.00 with a change of 18.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00 with a change of 68.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 56.52 with a change of 0.37 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 11809.50 with a change of 95.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.71 with a change of 0.27 [1] - Euro - US Dollar's latest value is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - British Pound - US Dollar's latest value is 1.34 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen's latest value is 157.73 with a change of 2.17 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.92 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14112.48 with a change of 17.12 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 899.64 with a change of - 12.52 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.54 with a change of 0.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16066.24 with a change of 47.95 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Gold's is 1, with no change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the commencement of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation, which began on December 18, marking a significant milestone in trade facilitation [1] - On the first day of closure, the value of imported "zero tariff" goods under customs supervision reached 360 million yuan, primarily consisting of crude oil and aviation equipment [1] - The value of goods subject to relaxed trade management measures for import was 347,000 yuan, mainly related to medical equipment for bonded maintenance [1] Group 2 - For outbound goods, the value of "second line" domestic sales processing value-added goods exempt from tariffs was 14.689 million yuan, with a total tariff exemption of 808,000 yuan [1] - The main categories of exempt goods included medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and food products, involving nine "second line ports" such as Haikou New Port and Haikou Meilan Airport [1]

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port officially closed its island-wide customs on December 18, with significant implications for trade and import activities [1] Group 1: Customs and Trade Statistics - On the first day of customs closure, the customs supervision "first line" reported imports of zero-tariff goods valued at 360 million yuan, primarily consisting of crude oil and aviation equipment [1] - The customs supervision "second line" allowed for the import of goods with relaxed trade management measures, totaling 34,700 yuan, mainly for duty-free maintenance of medical equipment [1] - The "second line" also facilitated the domestic processing of value-added goods worth 14.689 million yuan, with a duty exemption of 808,000 yuan, focusing on medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and food products [1]