Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term bearishness is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, with slow import unloading, slower port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - fired plant shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, with supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. Although consumption lacks positive factors, the downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. - For rubber, as the positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, with continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the decline in pure benzene and styrene prices, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [16][17]. - For polyethylene, with cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [19][20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [22][23]. - For PX, with high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [23][24]. - For PTA, with short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [24][25]. - For ethylene glycol, with high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [26][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, at 468.90 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.53 million barrels to 212.44 million barrels, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25% [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and decreased by 20 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 4 yuan to 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 38 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: With slow import unloading and potential supply disruptions, the downward momentum of the futures price is limited. It's advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 2 yuan to 1640 yuan, with a basis of - 60 yuan [7]. - **Strategy**: With supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong enterprises was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises was 74.49%. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1050000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC increased by 38 yuan to 4746 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 146 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory was 334000 tons, and social inventory was 1035000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: With continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread was 109.87 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons to 20.25 million tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 7024 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.46 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% [19]. - **Strategy**: With cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6699 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 million tons to 63.85 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [21][22]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX increased by 104 yuan to 6626 yuan. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA increased by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million tons [24]. - **Strategy**: With short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol increased by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 million tons to 52.3 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: With high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [27].

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a significant increase in market optimism, resulting in a rebound across global markets, including stock prices, oil, and copper [1][2][3] - Asian stock markets saw substantial gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historical high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The positive sentiment from the China-US trade discussions has also influenced commodity prices, with agricultural products like soybeans and corn expected to benefit from a potential trade agreement [3][4] Group 2 - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European stock index futures [3][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding market expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total, highlighting the interconnectedness of supply chains [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, capital markets experienced increased volatility, with risk assets generally rising after an initial decline. Overseas, geopolitical events and policy uncertainties influenced market trends, while in China, economic data weakened in Q3, leading to strengthened policy support [4][63]. - The significant correction in gold prices from historical highs can be attributed to factors such as the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical adjustments. However, the long - term drivers for gold prices remain strong [5][8]. - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 but emphasized the fragility of the global economy and the need for structural reforms [34][36]. - In China, CPI and PPI both showed narrowing declines, indicating potential for monetary easing policies. Exports in September exceeded expectations, but the real estate sector continued to drag down the economy [40][50][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Capital Market Performance - **Overseas**: Trump's tariff increase on China, the US government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affected market sentiment. Risk assets generally rose, but gold and silver prices corrected significantly, and non - US currencies depreciated [4][63]. - **Domestic**: The domestic futures market showed a differentiated pattern, with stocks, bonds, and commodities having mixed performances. The stock market experienced a technical correction, and the bond market showed a seesaw effect with the stock market [4][69]. Gold Price Analysis - **Reasons for the Correction**: The decline in gold prices was due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical overbought conditions, which triggered large - scale profit - taking and programmed selling [5][8]. - **Historical Comparison**: The 5.31% decline in London spot gold on October 21, 2025, ranked seventh among the top ten single - day declines since 2000 [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The long - term drivers for gold prices, including the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, the "scar effect" on asset allocation, and investment demand, remain intact [21][24]. Global Economic Outlook - **Growth Forecast**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% but warned of continued weakness, high public debt, and trade policy uncertainties [34][36]. - **Regional Performance**: Asia is expected to remain the main engine of global growth. AI is estimated to boost global economic growth by 0.1% - 0.8% annually [36]. China's Economic Indicators - **CPI and PPI**: In September, China's CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. Both showed narrowing declines, but CPI was still affected by factors such as low pork and oil prices and high - base effects [41][43]. - **Exports**: In September, China's exports reached $3285.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, exceeding expectations [50]. - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1015036 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [58]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with significant declines in various real - estate - related indicators [59]. Market Trends - **Commodities**: The CRB and Nanhua commodity indices showed different trends. Historically, the Nanhua commodity index has a slightly higher probability of rising in November [75]. - **Stock Market**: In October, the stock market experienced a technical correction, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The price - to - earnings ratios of major stock indices were under pressure, and the equity risk premium rebounded [79]. - **Global Economy**: Global economic sentiment weakened, with both the manufacturing and service sectors showing a decline. Inflation in major economies rebounded, and central banks' monetary policies diverged [86][94][97]. - **China's Economy**: China's manufacturing PMI continued to improve in September, while M2 growth declined, M1 growth increased, and the credit cycle showed signs of starting [106][111]. - **External Demand**: China's export growth showed resilience, but there were still concerns about external demand. Import and export price indices declined, and the export profit margin widened negatively [123]. - **Internal Demand**: Real - estate investment continued to decline, and consumption growth slowed down, with travel data dropping after the summer vacation [124][131]. - **Inflation**: China's CPI remained negative, and PPI decline slowed down. The macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased [134]. - **Mid - level Industries**: Steel prices fluctuated downward, oil prices dropped with increased inventory, copper prices rose with inventory reduction, and coking coal prices continued to rebound [141].

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary consensus on a trade framework, including a temporary pause on rare earth export controls, providing a more stable negotiation basis for upcoming leader meetings [1] - Market expectations suggest that some tariffs and restrictions may ease, leading to a rise in risk assets such as stocks and crude oil [1] - The U.S. September CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, indicating a continued trend of slowing inflation, which enhances expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in its October meeting [1] Group 2 - The market is shifting focus towards central bank actions, with upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and other central banks expected to influence the direction of the dollar and global assets [1] - If Fed Chair Powell hints at a faster easing path, the dollar may continue to decline, while a contrary signal could trigger adjustments in risk assets [1] - Gold prices have retreated from recent highs due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking by some bulls, with spot gold dropping to around $4,072, nearly 1.2% lower than last week's peak [1] Group 3 - The dollar index remains volatile, with the USD/JPY breaking the 153 mark, indicating a recovery in risk appetite that pressures the yen [2] - The Canadian central bank's upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, limiting the rebound potential of the Canadian dollar [2] - U.S. stock futures have risen by approximately 0.6%-1.1% in early European trading, driven by optimism from trade developments and rate cut expectations, suggesting further upside potential for the stock market [2] Group 4 - The market has transitioned from being driven by trade news to a phase of policy and capital dynamics, where the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions and subsequent macro data will determine the sustainability of market trends [3] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in a high-volatility environment, closely monitoring capital flows and volatility changes to seize trading opportunities arising from shifts in market sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - **Profit**: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - **Investment view**: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Gasoline demand**: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - **Inventory and price**: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - **PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - **Polyester operation**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend on Monday. The market sentiment is a bit bullish, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market still remain weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On the night of last Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 467.6 yuan/barrel [5]. Driving Factors - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively sent signals to ease the situation, and the positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend have further improved the macro sentiment [5]. - 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has faded [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] - For methanol, due to slow import unloading, slowed port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - head device shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, with supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] - For rubber, the upward momentum driven by the typhoon will weaken. With different views from bulls and bears, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12][13][17] - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically. It's recommended to wait and see [23] - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see [26] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PX, with high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] - For PTA, short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures contract on INE closed up 10.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.40% increase, at 464.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that the total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 43.83 million barrels, a 5.28% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, decreased by 2.5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 32 yuan, at 2272 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 45 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to slow import unloading, the port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton increase. The domestic production has declined, and the overall traditional demand has weakened. Although there are potential positive factors, it's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price increased by 20 yuan in Shandong and Henan, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 4 yuan, at 1642 yuan, with a basis of - 82. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 77 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rose due to the typhoon and positive factors in the stock market, but the positive impact of the typhoon will weaken. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [17] PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 108 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The overall production rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons, a 2.7 - ton decrease, and the social inventory was 103.5 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The BZN spread decreased by 11.63 yuan/ton, and the EB non - integrated device profit decreased by 5 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the spot price increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 45 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 14 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price [29] PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 26 yuan, at 6522 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars, at 815 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 4518 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4450 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4077 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 14 yuan, at 4187 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The port inventory was 57.9 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33]

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Equity assets have risen across the board, while gold prices have significantly corrected. The S&P 500 increased by 1.9%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 2.3% [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 4.02%, while the dollar index rebounded by 0.4% to 98.9. Offshore RMB slightly appreciated to 7.13 [1][3] - WTI crude oil surged by 6.9% to $61.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold plummeted by 3.1% to $4104.2 per ounce [1][33] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI was weaker than market expectations, with the core CPI rising only 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%. Employment remains a key concern for future Fed rate cuts [1][65][66] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for October rose to 52.2 and 55.2, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to Europe, Japan, and the UK [1][76] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has initiated a 301 investigation into the Phase One trade agreement with China, examining compliance with the agreement [1][48] - A meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese officials is scheduled for October 30 in South Korea [1][48] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Deficit - As of October 23, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.38 trillion, with total expenditures at $6.59 trillion and total tax revenues at $4.16 trillion [1][51] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 and three in 2026, influenced by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [1][60] - The upcoming Fed meeting on October 29 is being closely monitored for potential rate changes [1][60] Group 6: Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices have increased, with WTI crude oil up by 6.9% and Brent crude by 7.6%. However, precious metals like gold and silver have seen declines of 3.1% and 4.4%, respectively [1][33][39]

Group 1 - The core CPI data for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, both below market expectations, indicating a significant reduction in inflation pressure [1] - Following the CPI release, the market raised its bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with nearly 100% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and 98.5% for another cut in December [1] - Despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, recent signals from officials suggest a cooling job market, leading to widespread belief that the Fed has sufficient reasons to initiate a rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The decline in inflation has boosted market optimism regarding a "rate cut + soft landing," with major U.S. stock indices rising strongly, and the Nasdaq reaching a historic high with an increase of over 1% [2] - Gold prices strengthened, with spot gold rising to $4,320 per ounce, reflecting both liquidity support from rate cut expectations and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [2] - The Japanese stock market surged under the new prime minister's expectations, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1,600 points, surpassing the 49,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are anticipated to be significant market events, with Powell's post-meeting statements being key indicators for future policy direction [3] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations is also under scrutiny; positive outcomes could enhance risk appetite, while friction could lead to renewed interest in safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the cooling inflation and rate cut expectations create an optimistic market tone, but uncertainties from Japan's political changes, Middle East tensions, and trade talks may induce short-term volatility [3]

23日国际金价上涨近2% 1 0月23日国际金价上涨近2%，国际油价大涨超5%。 3日国际金价上 当地时间周四，投资者等待即将公布的美国重要通胀数据，以此来判断美联储接下来的货 币政策走向。美国全国房地产经纪人协会当天公布的数据显示，由于美国抵押贷款利率降 至一年多来的最低水平，缓解了购房者对还款压力的担忧，美国9月成屋销量小幅上升， 显示出美国房地产市场出现了回暖迹象。 此外，科技股和芯片股在接连下跌后迎来反弹，推动美国三大股指集体上涨。截至收盘， 道指上涨0.31%，标普500指数上涨0.58%，纳指涨幅为0.89%。 中概股普遍走高，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数上涨约1.7% 。公司方面，周四盘后芯片公司英特尔公布的最新财报 好于分析师预期，公司股价盘后涨超7%。 贵金属市场方面，地缘政治风险加剧再度推升市场避险情绪，叠加金价在此前两个交易日 累计下跌约6.7%后，市场出现了技术性买盘，推动 国际金价周四反弹 。截至收盘，纽 约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司4145.6美元， 涨幅为1.97% 。 美欧宣布对俄实施新制裁 23日国际油价大涨超5% 原油期货方面，美国日前宣布对俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业实施制 ...