Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

Company Overview - Ningbo Jintian Copper Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. is located in Jiangbei District, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, established on June 20, 1992, and listed on April 22, 2020 [2] - The company's main business involves non-ferrous metal processing, primarily producing copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials [2] - Revenue composition includes: copper wire (48.35%), copper and copper alloy products (41.61%), other (9.00%), and rare earth permanent magnet products (1.04%) [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.765 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 104.37% to 588 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 930 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 465 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of November 4, the stock price of Jintian shares was 11.09 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 19.171 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 91.47%, but it has seen a decline of 4.97% over the last five trading days and 6.88% over the last twenty days [1] - The stock has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a trading board for stocks with significant trading activity) six times this year, with the most recent appearance on August 22, where it recorded a net buy of -25.6827 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of October 20, the number of shareholders was 170,500, a decrease of 4.72% from the previous period, with an average of 10,140 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.95% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest, holding 27.2122 million shares, a decrease of 4.5234 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 96.10%, but a recent decline of 2.00% on November 4, indicating potential market fluctuations and investor sentiment shifts [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of 396.05 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.85% to 6.02 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 22.18 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 6.22 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Jiangxi Copper had 125,600 shareholders, an increase of 6.64% from the previous period [2] - The top three circulating shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation with 104 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 24.08 million shares to 44.51 million shares [3] Market Activity - On November 4, 2023, Jiangxi Copper's stock traded at 39.11 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 135.43 billion yuan [1] - The stock experienced a net outflow of 82.73 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper experienced a decline of 2.01% in stock price on November 4, 2023, with a current price of 17.02 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 34.102 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yunnan Copper reported a revenue of 137.743 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.551 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.91% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 4, 2023, Yunnan Copper's stock has increased by 42.43% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 3.24% over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has been on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the last appearance on October 10 [1] Shareholder Information - As of October 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Copper reached 198,700, an increase of 18.67% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 15.73% to 10,082 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Yunnan Copper has distributed a total of 4.019 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.944 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Major Shareholders - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 42.9042 million shares, an increase of 9.8413 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF is the sixth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 20.4226 million shares, a decrease of 340,300 shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF has entered as the ninth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 11.4201 million shares [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut expectations persist, and factors such as trade uncertainty, weak ADP employment, US debt expansion, de - dollarization, and geopolitical conflicts boost gold's safe - haven demand. The "official buying spree" and the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar index make gold's strategic allocation value stable [3]. - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The December contract has reached its peak, and the price will be dominated by the spot market. In November, the market's focus is on the January contract. If the rate - cut expectation strengthens in December, the January contract may have the momentum to hit the previous high; otherwise, the probability of high - level consolidation increases [17]. - Last week, Shanghai aluminum prices were strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamentals. After macro events, the market may seek new trading logic. Overseas disturbances may be more frequent than domestic ones, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level in the short term, testing the 21,500 resistance level. Alumina prices may be weak in the short term due to oversupply, and attention should be paid to cost - profit and production - adjustment news [37]. - Currently, the smelting end is fiercely competing for zinc ore. The price of overseas ore has no advantage, and the domestic ore increment is small, causing the TC in November to drop significantly again. The smelting end's willingness to cut or stop production in November has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [59]. - In the nickel industry chain, Indonesia's new regulations on 2026 quota applications for nickel ore are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak production and consumption season, with tight market circulation and low overall inventory levels. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered due to weak downstream demand. Stainless steel prices have been oscillating weakly, and many large steel mills have announced production cuts for the 200 - series. The Fed's rate - cut decision and Sino - US friendly talks bring positive signals [75]. - Fundamentally, the supply of tin is weaker than demand, with a decline in Yunnan's production and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. The short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [89]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply may increase in October due to the release of salt - lake production capacity and the possible resumption of "Jianxiawo". The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase before the end of the year. Overall, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an oscillating and strengthening trend [105]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high supply - side pressure and a downward trend in downstream operating rates. The polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with weak fundamentals. The polysilicon futures have high volatility and high risks [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and various factors support gold prices. The US dollar index has a long - term weakening trend, and gold has a stable strategic allocation value [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and US dollar index relationships, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventory data [4][8][12][16] Copper - **Price and Market Conditions**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated, and the December contract reached its peak. The January contract's trend depends on the rate - cut expectation in December. The current copper import profit is - 871.53 yuan/ton, and the copper concentrate TC is - 42.26 dollars/ton [17][28]. - **Data Charts**: Include copper futures and spot prices, inventory data, import and export profit data, and price difference data [18][23][33][35] Aluminum - **Price and Market Conditions**: Shanghai aluminum prices were strong last week and will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina prices may be weak due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support [37][38]. - **Data Charts**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, price difference data, inventory data, and import and export profit data [38][40][45][54] Zinc - **Price and Market Conditions**: The smelting end's willingness to cut production has increased in November due to ore supply issues. If demand is stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory provides support for prices [59]. - **Data Charts**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, price difference data, and inventory data [60][67][72] Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas are stricter. The new energy sector has tight circulation, nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel prices are oscillating weakly. Many large steel mills have announced production cuts [75]. - **Data Charts**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, nickel ore prices, and downstream profit data [76][80][84] Tin - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and Shanghai tin will remain strong in the short term, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data Charts**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and import and export profit data [90][96][100] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Conditions**: The supply of lithium carbonate may increase, and the demand from downstream enterprises is expected to rise. The futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen [105]. - **Data Charts**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data, and price difference data [106][111][115] Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Conditions**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the polysilicon industry chain is reducing production and accumulating inventory, with high risks [118]. - **Data Charts**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon prices, production, inventory, and cost data [119][124][131][135]

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of Trump's global tariffs, which are expected to persist regardless of legal authorization [1][2] - Lower courts have ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2] - The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision could significantly impact Trump's ability to impose tariffs as a means of punishing countries over non-trade political issues [2] Group 1: Tariff Legislation and Authority - The Supreme Court consists of six conservative and three liberal justices, and has previously supported Trump in major rulings [2] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, he may resort to other legal frameworks for imposing tariffs, such as the Trade Act of 1974 and the Tariff Act of 1930 [3] - Trump's administration views tariffs as a cornerstone of economic policy, and businesses should plan accordingly [3] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Agreements - Trump's tariff policies have reportedly led to significant concessions from major trading partners like Japan and the EU, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit [4] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office has announced final framework trade agreements with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, locking in tariff rates between 19% and 20% [4] - South Korea has agreed to a $350 billion investment plan in exchange for tariff reductions on automobiles and other goods [4] Group 3: Financial Implications and Revenue - As of September 7, the total import tariffs collected under IEEPA reached $89 billion, contributing to a net customs revenue increase of $118 billion for the fiscal year ending September 30 [8] - The reliance on tariff revenue poses significant political and economic risks, complicating future tariff reductions for any administration [8] - The potential need to refund over $100 billion in tariff revenue could create challenges for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection [8] Group 4: Inflation and Cost Management - Importers have largely absorbed the costs of tariffs, which has limited consumer price increases but has also reduced profit margins [9] - The Oxford Economics Institute estimates that tariffs have increased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate by 0.4 percentage points, pushing inflation above the Federal Reserve's target [9] - Companies are facing significant cost impacts, with over $35 billion in tariff-related costs disclosed ahead of the third-quarter earnings season [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors [11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening are expected to strengthen support for precious metal prices [5]. - Positive macro signals are anticipated to bolster copper and aluminum prices, with ongoing discussions between the US and China contributing to market optimism [6][8]. - Supply constraints are expected to support tin prices, while antimony faces weak demand but long-term supply tightness may provide price support [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 2.90%, outperforming other sectors [21]. - Over the past month, the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 5.0%, 41.0% over three months, and 60.6% over the past year [3]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - Gold prices in London were reported at $4011.50 per ounce, a decrease of $92.90 or -2.26% from the previous week [4]. - Silver prices increased by $0.95 to $48.96 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 1.99% [4]. 3. Copper and Aluminum Insights - LME copper closed at $10,915 per ton, up $74 or +0.68% from the previous week, while SHFE copper fell to ¥87,030 per ton, down ¥670 or -0.76% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices rose to ¥21,300 per ton, an increase of ¥170 from the previous week [8]. 4. Tin and Antimony Analysis - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥284,560 per ton, an increase of ¥1,850 or +0.65% [9]. - Antimony prices fell to ¥150,000 per ton, down ¥6,500 or -4.15% due to weak demand [10]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks across various sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Yun Aluminum [12][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].