来源：重庆晨报 市民选购黄金饰品 12月24日，现货黄金继续拉升，首次升破4500美元/盎司，盘中最高触及4525.70美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄金今年累涨超1870美元。今年以来，金价 已50次改写历史新高。摩根士丹利预计到2026年第四季度金价将达到4800美元/盎司，摩根大通则认为2026年底金价上看5055美元。 金价持续上涨背后究竟是何原因？2026年金价又将呈现怎样的走势？ 金价狂飙 国际现货黄金年内涨超70% 2025年，黄金堪称从年首涨到年尾，且多次涨上热搜。 数据显示，黄金已经连续上涨3年：在2023年全年实现了超过13%的涨幅；在2024年一度触及近2790美元/盎司的高点，最终全年实现涨幅超26%；2025年， 黄金市场的上涨动能依然充沛。12月23日，COMEX黄金又相继突破4500美元/盎司、4510美元/盎司、4520美元/盎司关口。截至12月23日12:00，报4524.9美 元/盎司，年内涨幅超62%；伦敦现货黄金也突破4490美元/盎司关口。Wind数据显示，截至12月23日，国际现货黄金年内涨幅已超70%。 受此影响，国内金饰价格随之一路走高。12月23日，有品牌足金 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals market, focusing on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, in the context of geopolitical risks and economic policies, particularly under the Trump 2.0 administration [1][4][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to rise due to inflation expectations and economic stagnation driven by the Trump 2.0 policy, which includes reciprocal tariffs [1][4]. - The demand for gold jewelry is declining due to high prices, while central bank purchases are slowing down. However, ETF investments are becoming a significant support factor for gold demand [5][6]. - The new gold tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses, increasing the tax burden on jewelry, which is likely to reduce domestic jewelry consumption in the upcoming quarters [6]. Silver Market - The silver market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with expectations for a seventh year of supply shortfall in 2025. This is supported by increased ETF investments and insufficient inventory liquidity, which is driving up silver prices [7]. - The fundamental strength of silver contrasts with gold, which is more influenced by macroeconomic factors [7]. Platinum and Palladium - Both platinum and palladium are experiencing supply deficits, with platinum facing a more severe situation. Platinum's demand is diversified, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, giving it more upward price elasticity compared to palladium [8][10]. Economic Policies and Predictions - The U.S. government may implement loose monetary and fiscal policies ahead of the midterm elections in 2026, which could further boost gold prices [11]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy impact on gold prices is diminishing, with geopolitical risks and U.S. debt issues becoming more significant factors in gold pricing logic [2][15]. Future Price Predictions - Gold prices are projected to range between $3,900 and $4,800 per ounce in 2026, with an average price expected to reach around $4,500 per ounce [15]. - Silver prices could reach between $56 and $64 per ounce, depending on the gold price trajectory [16]. Additional Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will significantly influence future gold prices. A resolution to this conflict could lower geopolitical risk but may not prevent inflation expectations from rising [13]. - The long-term target for gold could reach $6,000 per ounce, although achieving this in the short term remains uncertain [18]. - The copper market is also discussed, highlighting supply constraints and the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper prices, with expectations of a supply gap in 2026 [19][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the precious metals market and the broader economic context influencing these trends.

12月24日午后，LME三个月期铜创下每吨12159美元的历史新高，年内累计上涨超37%，这一关键工业金属有望创下自2009年超15年来最大年度涨幅。 铜概念股业绩集体增长 据证券时报统计，A股中属于铜板块的上市公司共有16家，12月以来普遍上涨，截至12月23日，平均涨幅达到8.58%，金诚信（603979）、白银有色 （601212）、洛阳钼业（603993）等7股累计涨幅超过10%。 从业绩来看，铜板块个股前三季度合计实现归母净利润690.05亿元，同比增长46.18%，其中鹏欣资源（600490）扭亏为盈，白银有色同比减亏，楚江新材 （002171）、金田股份（601609）、洛阳钼业等12股归母净利润实现同比增长。 英大期货指出，地缘政治风险对铜价或有所提振。美联储威廉姆斯讲话进一步强化了市场对美联储短期暂停降息的预期。日前，中国铜冶炼厂代表与智 利矿业巨头安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费为零，凸显矿端供应紧张格局，叠加美国持续虹吸全球电解铜，增加非美地区铜供应 紧张担忧，持续利好铜价。 AI浪潮下的铜需求刚性增长 在全球AI算力基建狂飙突进的浪潮下，数据中心正成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jintian Copper Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock performance, with a year-to-date increase of 85.77% and a recent trading volume indicating strong market interest [1][2] - As of December 19, 2025, Jintian's main business revenue composition includes copper wire (48.35%), copper and copper alloy products (41.61%), and other products (9.00%), with rare earth permanent magnet products contributing 1.04% [2] - The company has been actively involved in share buybacks and is associated with various concept sectors, including new energy vehicles and Xiaomi automotive concepts [2] Group 2 - Jintian Copper has a total market capitalization of 18.6 billion yuan and a trading volume of 254 million yuan on December 24, 2025 [1] - The company has distributed a total of 930 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 465 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 2.55% to 146,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.62% to 11,781 shares [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chujiang New Materials has shown significant stock performance and financial growth in 2023, with a notable increase in both stock price and revenue [1][2]. - As of December 24, the stock price of Chujiang New Materials rose by 2.04% to 12.53 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 20.335 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 52.80%, with a 4.68% rise in the last five trading days and a 10.01% increase over the past 20 days [1]. Group 2 - Chujiang New Materials, established on December 21, 2005, and listed on September 21, 2007, primarily engages in the research, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metal materials, particularly copper [2]. - The company's revenue composition shows that copper-based materials account for 96.79%, while high-end equipment and carbon fiber composite materials contribute 2.09% and 1.12%, respectively [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Chujiang New Materials achieved a revenue of 44.191 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 355 million CNY, marking a substantial increase of 2089.49% [2]. Group 3 - The company has distributed a total of 1.36 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 479 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 72,300, representing a 67.75% rise, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 35.84% to 22,327 shares [2][3]. - Notable changes in institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited entering as the fifth-largest shareholder with 20.3385 million shares, while other funds like E Fund Defense Industry Mixed A and Guotai CSI Military Industry ETF have reduced their holdings [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 见证历史了，近期有色金属迎来一轮强势上涨，多品种创下历史新高或阶段性新高。贵金属的黄金、白 银，历史新高；铂金2008年以来新高；工业金属方面，LME期铜历史新高、沪锡22年4月新高；小金属 方面，碳酸锂24年4月以来新高、部分钨金属今年以来涨超200%。 难怪有网友说了，还得是腾讯更懂贵金属，毕竟，尊贵铂金>荣耀黄金>秩序白银>倔强青铜… 从申万一级行业来看，今年以来有色金属涨幅超87%，位居行业之首，超大热门的通信行业1%左右， 年末竞争有点激烈．．． 铜：站上"超级周期"风口。供应端，智利、印尼等核心产区矿山事故频发，叠加中国冶炼企业自律性减 产，导致全球铜精矿出现"硬缺口" 。需求端，全球电网投资、新能源汽车用铜量是燃油车2-3倍，以及 AI数据中心建设，共同构成了长期结构性增长引擎。 铝：国内供应刚性是核心。电解铝产能天花板政策与云南水电复产不及预期，锁定了供应弹性。需求则 受益于汽车轻量化、光伏边框等领域的强劲韧性，社会库存持续处于低位，对价格形成支撑。 黄金：避险与货币属性驱动。美联储降息预期直接打压实际利率，中东、东欧地 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current rise in copper prices lacks demand support and is mainly driven by macro and supply factors. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise due to sentiment factors [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper broke through the recent trading range, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 94,730. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 210. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated significantly, and the market's previous concerns about the impact of the interest rate hike did not materialize. The US stock AI sector rebounded sharply, and the market's bullish sentiment recovered. The sharp rise in the precious metals sector also drove copper prices higher [10] - Spot copper rose 1,325 to 93,675 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened 35 to 195. At the end of the year, downstream demand was weak. China's social inventory increased 0.26 to 16.84 million tons compared to last Thursday. Short - term copper prices were driven up by macro factors, while downstream demand was suppressed by high copper prices [10] - The LME 0 - 3 structure turned to back at 4.73 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.85. The spot import loss widened to around 1,600, indicating limited subsequent imports of copper [10] - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound, suggesting a tight copper ore market in 2026 [10] 3.2 Industry News - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the probability of the US imposing a refined copper tariff in the first half of 2026 from 80% to 25%. The new base scenario (55% probability) is that a 15% tariff will be announced in the first half of 2026 but postponed until 2027 to take effect, and may be raised to 30% in 2028. This adjustment is based on the US government's policy tendency to reduce interference with enterprises [11] - The International Energy Forum (IEF) reported that over 60% of global key mineral demand is met through international trade. The copper and nickel markets may face substantial shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply remains concentrated in a few countries. Governments are accelerating their responses by implementing strategic planning, export controls, and domestic processing authorizations [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

来源：经济参考报 作者：闫磊 2025年，地缘政治波动、新能源汽车产业发展、市场避险需求高企等因素持续影响大宗商品需求端，主 要品种价格单边震荡，走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"——油价显著回落，而黄金等贵金属价格屡创 新高、铜价持续飙涨。 需求疲弱令油价走低 针对今年以来震荡走低的国际油价，多个机构近期表示，需求端疲软令基本面宽松的局面持续打压油 价，地缘政治局势缓和等因素也给油价带来下行压力。 受到供应过剩压力加剧的预期，以及市场对俄乌和谈再现乐观情绪的影响，国际油价近期跌至2021年2 月以来最低水平，令今年的油价总体跌幅达到约20%。 据英国《金融时报》近日报道，全球大宗商品贸易巨头托克集团警告称，由于供应激增与全球需求下降 并存，石油市场明年将面临"超级过剩"。该集团日前发布的公司年度业绩显示，截至9月份的财年净利 润为27亿美元，创五年新低。 除了行业头部企业业绩反映需求下降，《金融时报》还指出，随着全球大量原油开采新项目将于明年投 产，预计油价将受到进一步压制。 英国oil price网站称，在需求增长疲软的背景下，石油供应持续上涨，因此预测机构和分析师预计2026 年市场将出现大幅供应过剩。许 ...