1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily outlook for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and assigned a trend strength rating [2]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][19]. - **Lead**: Bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Tin**: Tight supply in the short term but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost - downward trend continues, and lithium prices may remain weak, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a short - selling strategy, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of -1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and prices will trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41]. - **Rebar**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Coke**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties increase, and the support for the futures price weakens [2][52]. - **PVC**: Short - term oscillations, with downward pressure in the long - term [2][55]. - **Fuel Oil**: Retreated at night, and short - term strength is expected to ease [2][57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly narrowed [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel policy and geopolitical risks are both positive [2][64]. - **Soybean Oil**: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][64]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose overnight, and Dalian soybean meal oscillates [2][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Heilongjiang Province's reserve auction announcement has led to market adjustments and oscillations [2][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68]. - **Sugar**: Started to rebound [2][70]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of external markets [2][71]. - **Eggs**: The elimination of laying hens is accelerating [2][73]. - **Pigs**: Still waiting for spot - market confirmation [2][74]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [2][75]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract shows an oscillating trend, and hold short positions in the 10 contract [2][58]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [2][63]. - **Log**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has high uncertainty. Gold is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustments, and silver may maintain a relatively strong trend [3][5]. - LME copper has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short - term [7][10]. - Alumina supply is increasing, and prices are expected to move closer to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity and then fluctuate [12][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to when the seasonal inflection point of consumption arrives [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories continue to accumulate [23][24]. - Lead prices will mainly fluctuate in a range due to weak supply and demand [26][28]. - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate due to the pattern of weak supply and demand [30][33]. - Stainless steel prices are under pressure from supply, and the market is expected to be weak, but the raw material end provides cost support [34][37]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are basically balanced in June, but the industry will continue to have low or negative profits, and 7500 yuan/ton may be the resistance level for the rebound [40][41]. - Short - term polysilicon prices remain weak, and short positions in the PS2507 contract can be held [44][46]. - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [48][49]. - Tin prices are driven by macro - sentiment in the short - term, and the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has been significantly alleviated [52][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - market Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Market Review - Precious metals: London gold rose 0.43% to 3325.215 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 2.16% to 36.743 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.18% to 776.66 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.07% to 9015 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: It fell 0.25% to 98.94 [3]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield: It slightly fell to 4.488% [3]. - RMB exchange rate: It rose 0.23% to 7.1785 [3]. Important Information - Tariff trends: The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [3]. - US macro: The 1 - year inflation expectation in May was 3.2%, and the wholesale sales monthly rate in April was 0.1% [3]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in July is 14.5% [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the strategy of trying long positions on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5] Copper Market Review - Futures: LME copper rose 1.01% to 9768.5 dollars [7]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 12.24 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1843 short tons to 189720 short tons [7]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations began in London [7]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [7]. - Chile's copper exports in May were 4.48 billion dollars, a 4.4% year - on - year increase [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the delivery risk in LME, copper prices may rise in the short - term [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10] Alumina Market Review - Futures: The 2509 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 2883 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot: The prices in different regions were mostly flat, with a 25 - yuan decrease in Xinjiang [12]. Relevant Information - The national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons and an operating rate of 80.6% [12]. - The ex - factory price of a certain tender was nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction price in the central region [12]. - As of June 5, the national alumina inventory was 3.133 million tons, a decrease of 29000 tons from the previous week [13]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to decline towards the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, and attention should be paid to raw material supply risks [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: Wait and see [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20060 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [18]. Relevant Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued [18]. - In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline of PPI expanded to 3.3% [20]. - Tian Shan Aluminum plans to carry out a green and low - carbon energy - efficiency improvement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity [20]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inflection point of consumption [21]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21] Zinc Market Review - Futures: LME zinc fell 0.98% to 2654 dollars/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2507 fell 0.9% to 21925 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai decreased, and the overall transaction was average [24]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 81700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from June 3 [24]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [24]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24]. - Options: Wait and see [24] Lead Market Review - Futures: LME lead rose 0.53% to 1988 dollars/ton, and Shanghai lead 2507 rose 0.81% to 16865 yuan/ton [26]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead rose 25 yuan/ton, and the transaction of recycled lead was poor [26]. Relevant Information - As of June 9, the total social inventory of SMM's five - region lead ingots was 53400 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from June 3 [26]. - A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [27]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate in a range [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] Nickel Market Review - Futures: LME nickel fell 125 dollars to 15365 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel 2507 fell 740 yuan to 121950 yuan/ton [30]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel decreased [30]. Relevant Information - An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production after maintenance [31]. - A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production at the end of June [31]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and nickel ore changes [35]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [35]. - Options: Consider the range double - selling strategy [35] Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The SS2507 contract fell 70 yuan to 12560 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [34]. Important Information - Indian stainless steel enterprises called for tariff measures to deal with imports [34]. - A stainless steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [37]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to the support at 12500 yuan [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract rose 2.33% to 7475 yuan/ton [40]. - Spot: The spot price was stable, and there was a possibility of a decline [40]. Relevant Information - Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [40]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton [42]. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of Si2511 and Si2512 [42]. - Options: Wait and see [42] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract fell 2.24% to 34105 yuan/ton [44]. - Spot: The transaction prices of different types of polysilicon were basically flat [44]. Relevant Information - Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [44]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract and gradually stop losses below 34000 yuan/ton [46]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread of far - month contracts [46]. - Options: Sell call options to realize profits [46] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract fell 100 yuan to 60700 yuan/ton [48]. - Spot: The prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan [48]. Important Information - In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Sell on rebounds, and do not recommend bottom - fishing [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [51]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [51] Tin Market Review - Futures: The 2507 contract rose 0.38% to 263860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: The average price of Shanghai tin ingots decreased by 500 yuan/ton [51]. Important Information - China - US economic and trade consultations continued, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths [52]. - In May, CPI and PPI decreased [52]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The decline of tin prices may be limited in the short - term [53]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [53]

2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：社库累库，价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅：短期供需双弱，中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反 ...

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The macro sentiment has eased following the dialogue between the US and China, leading to a strong fluctuation in industrial metals [1][6] - Precious metals have seen a decline in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases this week [1][25] - The report highlights the impact of US economic indicators, including manufacturing and employment data, on market sentiment and metal prices [1][40] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.54% to $3,331.00 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 9.24% to $36.13 per ounce this week [1][25] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 129,023.13 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 13,038,422.40 ounces [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 7.96% to 92.19, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.83% to $9,670.50 per ton, aluminum by 0.12% to $2,451.50 per ton, zinc by 1.25% to $2,662.50 per ton, and lead by 0.51% to $1,974.00 per ton [6][46] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 1.71% to ¥78,930.00 per ton and zinc up by 0.72% to ¥22,385.00 per ton [6][46] - The report notes a significant decrease in LME copper registered warehouse stocks, down 17.5% to 54,700 tons, the lowest level since July 2023 [44] Copper - Chile's copper exports in May reached 181,234 tons, with 32,721 tons exported to China [7][67] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates increased to 75.90%, reflecting a recovery in demand [7][67] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for copper prices due to ongoing macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investments in China [8][68] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum demand is under pressure, with production costs decreasing and seasonal demand weakening [9][10] - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China fell to ¥16,374 per ton, while the average profit margin increased to ¥3,703 per ton [44] - The outlook for aluminum prices remains cautiously optimistic, supported by ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and power sectors [10][18] Zinc - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties due to tariffs and increased imports, leading to sustained supply pressures in the zinc market [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventories increased by 0.43% to 79,300 tons, indicating a buildup in supply [11] Lead - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with inventories expected to continue rising [12] - The report notes that lead battery markets are experiencing reduced production, leading to cautious procurement strategies among downstream enterprises [12] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have seen a decline of 3.25% to ¥17,590 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the market [13][14] - Molybdenum prices have increased, supported by strong raw material prices, while vanadium prices have softened due to weak demand [15]