大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 774.0 | 769.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | | DCE05 | 753.0 | 749.5 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | | DCE09 | 731.0 | 729.5 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | -43.0 | -40.0 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 772 | 1 | 842 | 64 | 84 | 104 | | 纽曼粉 | 777 | 777 | 0 | 842 | 64 | 84 | 104 | | 麦克粉 | 777 | 777 | 0 | 843 | 66 | 86 | 106 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 747 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable and fluctuating, with the total steel inventory returning to destocking, but some varieties still have serious inventory accumulation. The market participants are cautious, and the demand lacks explosive power. It is not recommended to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. The production profit of double - silicon is poor in the short term, and the supply is difficult to increase. The demand for double - silicon is strong due to high - level hot metal. The inventory of ferrosilicon is normal, and the subsequent accumulation pressure is not large. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The supply of coking coal after the festival has not increased significantly, and the hot metal output remains high. The market is still in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. - For iron ore, there is no obvious driving force in the short term. The supply is not significantly affected, and the high - level hot metal may lead to over - supply of steel in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 21, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton, 3236.00 yuan/ton, 749.50 yuan/ton, 1817.50 yuan/ton, and 1250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.50 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 47.00 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.32%, - 0.28%, 0.07%, - 2.52%, and - 3.62% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3047.00 yuan/ton, 3219.00 yuan/ton, 769.50 yuan/ton, 1672.00 yuan/ton, and 1177.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 1.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 42.50 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.36%, - 0.31%, 0.13%, - 2.73%, and - 3.49% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 on October 21 were - 57.00 yuan/ton, - 17.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit data on October 21: the coil - to - rebar spread was 172.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.96, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar disk profit was - 116.43 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 106.59 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On October 21, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 104.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 0.80 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 280.00 yuan/ton, and 776.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 30.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, another powder, Ganjimao Coking Concentrate, Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke, and Qingdao Port PB were 703.00 yuan/ton, 745.00 yuan/ton, 1310.00 yuan/ton, 1480.00 yuan/ton, and 780.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 50.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis data on October 21: the HC main contract basis was 31.00 yuan/ton, the RB main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton, the I main contract basis was 48.00 yuan/ton, the J main contract basis was - 45.60 yuan/ton, and the JM main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Steel**: The market is weakly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading idea for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for disk arbitrage. Roll and take profit for cash - and - carry reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Wait and see for single - side trading [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Wait and see [3].

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 769.5 | 767.0 | 2.5 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 749.5 | 747.5 | 2.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 729.5 | 727.5 | 2.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -39.5 | -0.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 772 | 775 | -3 | 841 | 66 | 85 | 105 | | 纽曼粉 | 777 | 775 | 2 | 842 | 67 | 86 | 106 | | 麦克粉 | 777 | 775 | 2 | 843 | 68 | 88 | 108 ...

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable with prices remaining unchanged on Monday, dominated by rigid - demand purchases, while speculative demand and trading are light. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The pricing weight of the market is increasing. Steel inventories are back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere is average, and the coking coal auction in the origin has weakened. The supply of coking coal in the Mongolian market is still in short supply. The black - sector internal varieties are difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices may remain in a shock without new "anti - involution"提法 from domestic major meetings [4]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The supply is not significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Conditions**: On October 20, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures had different changes. The spot prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou steel remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou steel price decreased by 0.65 yuan/ton. The trading on Monday was mainly for rigid demand, with light speculative demand and trading. The market is waiting for the impact of domestic important meetings [1][2]. - **Macro and Industry Analysis**: Before the APEC meeting, the Sino - US tariff issue is still uncertain. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The economic growth in the third quarter maintained resilience, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small. The crude steel output has decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the space for administrative production reduction is limited. The steel inventory is back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see or shock - thinking approach for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long when the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil of the 01 contract is below 150 for inter - market arbitrage. Roll and take profit for spot - futures reverse arbitrage [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere in the port's domestic market is average. The coking coal auction in the origin has weakened, with more unsuccessful auctions. The coking coal price in the Mongolian market is supported by the shortage of supply [4]. - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the futures market first rose and then fell. The carbon element was still strong, while the iron element was weak. After the holiday, the increase in coking coal supply was limited, and the iron - water output remained high. The market expected stricter safety inspections in the main production areas, resulting in a tight supply - demand situation for spot goods. The steel inventory pressure was large, and the inventory reduction speed was slow. The black - sector internal varieties were difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices were affected by steel. After the price rose on Friday night, it reached a relatively high level. Pay attention to whether domestic major meetings will have new "anti - involution"提法 [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the supply data has not been significantly affected. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The current steel production remains high, inventory accumulates, and supply - demand pressure increases. With the weak data performance and the decline in new RMB loans in September, the short - term steel futures market is expected to continue to move weakly [1]. - Iron ore: Although the supply and demand of iron ore have declined, the demand is still at a high level, which provides strong support for prices. Under the influence of multiple factors, the short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [1]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is basically stable, and the market sentiment is fair. The iron - making production is still at a high level, but the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is poor, so the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coking enterprises' production is stable, and the downstream demand is good, but the steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the coke procurement is still cautious. Therefore, the short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The production of manganese silicon has slightly declined from the high level, and the demand is limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The cost of manganese ore has fluctuated. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon enterprises remains at a high level, the demand for steel is weak, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures continued to decline. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The national building materials production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and apparent demand increased slightly. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures price fell. The port spot price decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments declined, and the iron - making production decreased slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The spot price of some coal types increased. The supply was stable, and the demand remained high, but the profitability of downstream enterprises was poor. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined. The port spot price increased. The coking enterprises' production was stable, and the downstream demand was good, but the steel mills' profits were shrinking. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price in some regions increased. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in some regions increased. The production remained high, the demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was high. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 56.0, a decrease of 3.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different trends. For example, the 01 - contract basis of rebar is 156.0, an increase of 7.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have risen and fallen. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0, a decrease of 20.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties have changed. For example, the rebar futures profit is - 111.2, a decrease of 11.7 compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][31][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44] - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides the profit trends of rebar from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise in the black - commodity field [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market for steel is weak, with poor trading volume and prices. The futures valuation is neutral, and there is currently no driving force for a spot rebound. The strength of demand during the "Silver October" season is insufficient to support price increases, and there are concerns about a negative feedback loop when demand fails to match high production during the off - season [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating due to insufficient driving factors. In the short - term, alloy plants have a high motivation to maintain production, but there are medium - term concerns. Terminal demand is weak, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - making and electric - furnace operations, which may impact the demand for these alloys [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke remains strong, while the futures market continues to oscillate. Although the furnace material data is good, the market is worried about the inventory pressure of steel, and the medium - term futures market may continue to seek a bottom. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile due to the strong spot performance and potential "anti - involution" policies [3]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The price increase during the holiday was mainly due to unsubstantiated rumors. The supply data has not been significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - making output throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel, which may force steel mills to cut production [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On October 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3090.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.83%), HC2605 at 3223.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3034.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2601 at 3212.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%) [1]. - **Spreads**: On October 15, the RB2601 - 2605 spread was - 56.00 yuan/ton (down 13.00 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 was - 11.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), etc. The roll - screw spread was 178.00 yuan/ton (down 2.00 yuan), and the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 (down 0.01) [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On October 15, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3120.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), etc. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Materials**: On October 15, the price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 708.00 yuan/ton (down 15.00 yuan), and the price of Ganjimao Port coking coal was 1260.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or an oscillating trading strategy for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the 01 - contract roll - screw spread when it is below 150 for arbitrage. Wait for the opportunity to enter a positive - spread trade in the spot - futures market [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [3].