2025年06月30日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：短期高位，关注量价 | 5 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 6 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 7 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 7 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 9 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 11 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 13 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 18 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 20 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 对二甲苯：供应收缩，月差偏强 | 23 | | PTA：月差反套 | 23 | | MEG：单边偏弱 | 23 ...

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 增加 5 元/方，江苏市场报 价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 810 元/ 方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 775 元/方，较上周 增加 10 元/方。欧洲材云 杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到6月22日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有30条，其中有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of sustainable business practices and how companies can integrate social value with commercial value from their inception, creating a positive cycle of "doing good" in business [4][18]. Group 1: Sustainable Business Practices - Patagonia, a pioneer in integrating environmental protection into business, has consistently prioritized sustainability, exemplified by its provocative 2011 advertisement urging consumers not to buy unnecessary products [6][8]. - The company donates 1% of its sales to environmental causes and has a long history of using recycled materials in its products, showcasing a commitment to sustainable practices [8][9]. - Patagonia's approach to community engagement includes making stores community-friendly spaces, which fosters trust and loyalty among consumers [9]. Group 2: Emerging Sustainable Companies - MuMo, a wooden furniture company founded in 2011, emphasizes a philosophy of simplicity and environmental responsibility, using FSC-certified wood and avoiding harmful finishes [10][11]. - The founder of MuMo believes in a sustainable lifestyle that extends to employee welfare, avoiding piecework systems to ensure worker health and well-being [11]. - Seven Year Organic Rice Wine, founded by Shao Ruyi, transitioned from organic vegetable farming to organic rice cultivation, ultimately creating a sustainable business model that supports local agriculture [13][14]. Group 3: Design and Sustainability - REDO, a design company, focuses on integrating sustainability into the design process, aiming to reduce waste significantly through innovative design solutions [20][21]. - The company collaborates with brands to repurpose materials, such as turning used glass bottles into sustainable products, thereby reducing carbon emissions [21]. - REDO's efforts highlight the importance of public education and talent development in promoting sustainable design practices [21]. Group 4: B Corp and Shared Value - The concept of "benefit" is central to the discussion, with B Corps redefining business success to include social and environmental responsibilities alongside financial performance [22][24]. - The article notes that there are currently 71 certified B Corps in mainland China, indicating a growing movement towards businesses that prioritize broader stakeholder interests [24]. - The relationship between ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and B Corp principles is highlighted, suggesting that both frameworks can enhance a company's sustainable development path [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "business for good," highlighting how companies can integrate sustainability into their core operations from the very beginning [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking in business, where social value and commercial value can coexist and enhance each other [5][24] Group 1: Sustainable Business Practices - Patagonia is highlighted as a pioneer in integrating environmental protection into its business model, known for its durable outdoor clothing and commitment to sustainability [6][10] - The company has a history of provocative marketing, such as its 2011 ad urging consumers not to buy its products to reduce environmental impact [8] - Patagonia donates 1% of its sales to environmental causes and has been using recycled materials since 1993, showcasing its commitment to sustainable practices [8][10] Group 2: Emerging Sustainable Companies - MuMo, a wooden furniture company, emphasizes a philosophy of simplicity and environmental responsibility, using FSC-certified wood and avoiding harmful finishes [11][12] - The founder of MuMo believes in a sustainable lifestyle that extends to employee welfare, avoiding piecework systems to ensure worker health [12] - QiYue, an organic rice wine company, transformed its business model from organic vegetable farming to organic rice production, using traditional methods to promote sustainability [14][15] Group 3: Community and Consumer Engagement - Both Patagonia and MuMo focus on building community relationships, with Patagonia's stores serving as community hubs [10][19] - QiYue's approach to organic farming has led to visible ecological improvements in the surrounding area, demonstrating the impact of sustainable practices on local ecosystems [16][18] - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay for products that are organic, natural, and sustainable, indicating a shift in market demand towards ethical consumption [18][19] Group 4: Design and Sustainability - REDO, a design company, integrates sustainability into its creative processes, aiming to reduce waste and carbon emissions through innovative design [21][23] - The company collaborates with brands to repurpose materials, such as reusing glass bottles to minimize environmental impact [21][23] - REDO faces challenges in public education and talent development to further its sustainable design initiatives [23] Group 5: B Corp and Social Responsibility - The concept of "benefit corporations" (B Corps) is introduced, emphasizing a broader definition of business success that includes social and environmental responsibilities [24][25] - B Corps are seen as a framework for companies to assess their impact on various stakeholders, promoting transparency and accountability in business practices [25] - The article suggests that sustainable practices can create long-term competitive advantages, even if they do not yield immediate financial returns [18][25]

软商品专场 - 年度中期策略会 20250625 摘要 请介绍一下目前国内外白糖的基本面情况以及未来糖价的预期。 从国内外白糖的基本面来看，目前整个主产区丰产预期较强，预计未来一段时 间内国内外糖价将维持偏弱震荡格局。需要密切关注后期天气变化。 巴西 2,526 榨季的甘蔗压榨量和产糖量情况如何？ 截至 5 月底，巴西中南部甘蔗入榨量同比下降 11.85%，产糖量同比下降 11.64%。主要原因是 4 月和 5 月上半月降雨较多，影响了甘蔗收割进度。进 入 5 月下半月后，降雨减少，收割进展顺利，因此 5 月下半月生产报告显示甘 蔗压榨量和食糖产量有所增加。 中国针叶原木和辐射松进口量维持低位，港口库存也处于近年偏低水平， 下游需求疲软。预计下半年旺季需求可能比上半年更弱，库存维持低位 波动。 苹果市场产量预期偏空，现货和期货价格大幅上涨，冷库苹果库存处于 近年最低水平。陕西地区套袋量同比增加，预计增产幅度可能在 15%左 右。全国新季度苹果产能预期偏空，期价预计继续偏弱运行。 巴西中南部主产区今年（2025 年）的单产预期如何？ 由于今年（2025 年）巴西中南部主产区一季度降雨较少，对甘蔗生长关键期 产生 ...

的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证、本报告反映研究人员的不同观点, 见解及分析方法，并不代表厂发期货或其附属机构的立场，在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或润 资者据此投资，风险自担，本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书画授权、任何人不得对本报告进行 价, 招 任何形式的发布、复制、如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 交产业期规目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月25日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月24日 6月23日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13800 50 0.36% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 185 -150 335 223.33% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13600 13800 -200 -1.45% 非标价差 -୧୧ -150 85 56.67% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.15 47.50 -0.35 - ...

2025 年 6 月 24 日 银河能化-20250624 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-06-24） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2508 合约 68.51 跌 5.33 美元/桶，环比-7.22%；Brent2508 合约 71.48 跌 5.53 美元/桶，环比-7.18%。SC 主力合约 2508 跌 2.9 至 569.9 元/桶，夜盘跌 32.2 至 537.7 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.73 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，以色列和伊朗之间"完全而彻底的"停火将生效，结束两国间的 冲突。特朗普似乎暗示，以色列和伊朗将有一些时间来完成任何正在进行的任务，之后停 火将分阶段开始。以色列方面没有立即对特朗普的声明发表评论。伊朗高级官员向路透证 实，德黑兰同意卡塔尔调停、美方提出的与以色列停火提议。 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼表示，降息的时机似乎即将到来，因为她越来越担心劳动力市 场的风险，而没有那么担心高进口关税会导致持续的通胀问题。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比 表示，迄今为止，关税上调对经济的影响相对于预期而言较为温和。美国利率期货市场预 计明年将多次降息，对美联 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月15日 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价750元/方，较上周持平，江苏市场报价775元/ 方，较上周持平，目前两地区价差为-25。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价810元/方，较上周持 平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价760元/方，较上周持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交 易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 供应： 截至到6月15日，从6月新西兰出发的船总共有8条，其中有8条去往中国大陆，0条去往中国台湾、韩 国减载。 ...

美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说，此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示，截止 6 月 6 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶，比 前一周下降 341 万桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶，比前一周下降 364.4 万桶；美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶，比前一周增长 150.4 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶，比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶，比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶，比去年同期 ...

2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：社库累库，价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅：短期供需双弱，中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反 ...