Report Title - Log Weekly Report: Winter Stockpiling, Demand Shows Differentiation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium to long term, with short - term demand showing differentiation. The 2603 contract maintains a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, and the price may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026. The improvement of the main 2603 contract depends on new support policies in the real estate industry and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, while the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. Overall, log spot prices are running weakly, with a general increase in the Jiangsu market. Futures: As of the close on January 7, the main log contract 2603 closed at 782 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2] Supply - In December 2025, about 55 log - carrying vessels departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous month, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in November. Among them, 42 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from 1.452 million cubic meters in November. Recently, the number of vessels bound for China has increased, and arrivals will be concentrated in mid - January, with no sign of reduced overseas supply yet. The expected arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026: 15 New Zealand coniferous log - carrying vessels are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume is 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The actual arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 22 to December 28, 2025: 9 New Zealand log - carrying vessels were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 306,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 218,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 42%. In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07% [2] Inventory - As of December 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.19 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American log inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Overall, the downstream demand is weakly stable. The high arrival volume continuously pressures the port log inventory and spot prices. The reduced arrivals in mid - November created conditions for inventory reduction. Recently, the inventory decreased due to the reduced previous arrivals, but it will face a new round of arrival impact [3] Demand - From December 29 to January 4, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% compared to the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 3.58% compared to the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11.07% compared to the previous week. Previously, the arrival pressure was continuously high, and the downstream demand was suppressed by seasonal factors. According to Steel Union statistics, the recent demand shows differentiation. In the Yangtze River Delta, due to less arrivals and winter stockpiling demand support, the prices of most radiata pine specifications increased and were transmitted to the downstream timber squares. In the north, it has entered the off - season of demand, the price of knotless timber decreased, and the timber squares in Tianjin had promotions, highlighting the weak demand pattern [3] Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration characteristics, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating to focus on high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source is continuously accumulating. The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs and black - type futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between the downstream construction timber squares of logs and coke reaches 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry boosts the sentiment of the log futures market. The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the United States in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the acceleration of log inventory reduction. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback. The EU Commission announced to impose higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on cardboard originating from China. The General Administration of Customs announced the resumption of importing US logs, but the total amount of US logs that can arrive at ports and complete customs clearance in the short term will still be limited. New Zealand is expected to gradually slow down its supply to China before the Chinese Spring Festival due to the extended summer forest shutdown time, and the long - term supply tightening expectation is rising. The prices in the southern Yangtze River Delta may maintain a stable and rising trend, while the prices in the northern market may be stable and weak [4] Strategies and Suggestions - From July to early September 2025, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot prices strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a differentiation trend of strong near - term and weak long - term. In the short term, the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively strong compared to the near - term contract. As of January 5, 2026, the ex - works price range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in January was 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a slight decrease compared to December, with the cost support shifting down. The short - term demand shows differentiation, and the winter stockpiling in the Yangtze River Delta still provides support. The 2603 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. It is expected that around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. In the long - term, whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on whether the real estate industry will introduce a new round of support policies and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Log Spot Price Situation - The report provides the spot price trends of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port from 2023 to 2026, showing the price fluctuations of different specifications of radiata pine logs over the years [7] Log Import - The report shows the port shipping volume and the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025, and the monthly import volume of Chinese logs from 2021 to 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] Log Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of Chinese logs at different ports and different tree species from 2022 to 2025, with the coniferous log inventory covering radiata pine, spruce, fir, North American timber, and other coniferous tree species [21][22] Log Outbound - The report shows the daily average outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 to 2026, and the weekly average outbound volume of logs at Shandong and Jiangsu ports from 2023 to 2026 [24][27] Log Demand - The report provides the weekly outbound volume of cement from 2023 to 2026, the weekly shipment volume of concrete from 2020 to 2025, the actual in - place funds of real estate development enterprises from 2020 to 2025, and the correlation between radiata pine log spot prices and glass and rebar index contract closing prices [30][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipments from ports remained unchanged week - on - week, and the total inventory of the four major ports did not change either. The spot prices of mainstream lumber remained stable, and the market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand. The BDI decreased by 7.78% week - on - week, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the New Zealand dollar declined [4][6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 15 ships were expected to arrive in December, and 18 in January. The expected arrival volume in December was 1.58 million cubic meters [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2668 million cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with a week - on - week de - stocking of 0 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level volatile state this week, and the fundamental situation maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 17.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7 yuan per cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week ending December 28, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877.00 points, a decrease of 146 points (- 7.78%) from the previous week. Its relevant sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 719 points, a - 3.62% change from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,656.32 points, a 6.7% increase from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.007, a 0.48% decrease week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% to 1.709 [6][55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log futures market continues to be weak. In December, the foreign market quotes dropped significantly, and the spot prices continued to decline gradually. Some timber species are being used. The 01 contract is about to enter the delivery month and is greatly affected by delivery pressure. Overall, the log futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices - In Shandong, for radiation pine, the spot prices for 3.9 - meter medium A, 5.9 - meter medium A, 3.9 - meter small A, 5.9 - meter small A, and 4 - meter medium A are 740, 770, 680, 710, and 730 yuan respectively [3]. - In Jiangsu, for radiation pine, the spot prices for 4 - meter medium A, 6 - meter medium A, 4 - meter small A, and 6 - meter small A are 730, 760, 760, and 720 yuan respectively [3]. Foreign Market Quotes - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in December is 109 - 113 dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 4 dollars from the November range of 112 - 119 dollars [3]. Futures Prices - The price of LG2601 contract is 766.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 2 yuan from the previous period; the price of LG2603 contract is 776 yuan per cubic meter, up 6 yuan from the previous period [3]. Downstream Wood Square Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares remains unchanged at 1220 and 1240 yuan respectively compared to the previous period [3]. Supply - In November 2025, the import volumes from New Zealand, North America, and Europe were 178.8, 9.3, and 15.5 million cubic meters respectively, compared to 149.58, 6.77, and 13.09 million cubic meters in October. The weekly arrival volume from December 6 - 12 was 41 million JAS cubic meters, compared to 26 million in November 29 - December 5 [3]. Inventory - On December 18, the total inventory was 260 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory was 181.3 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 61.5 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - On December 18, the daily average outbound volume was 6.32 million cubic meters. Shandong's outbound volume was 3.34 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 2.52 million cubic meters [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the shipping and palm oil industries, focusing on market dynamics, supply chain challenges, and future projections for 2026. Shipping Industry Insights Market Performance - The shipping market in 2025 is expected to experience significant weakness, with freight rates declining compared to 2024. Despite a roundabout route via the Cape of Good Hope, the supply-demand fundamentals remain loose, leading to a soft market overall [2][4]. Key Influencing Factors - Major factors affecting the shipping market include the restructuring of three major alliances, the impact of tariff trade wars, and global economic pressures that lead shippers to prefer lower-cost transport services [3][9]. Alliance Adjustments - The MSC, Premier, and Ocean alliances dominate the Northwest European and Mediterranean routes. Adjustments in fleet deployment, such as MSC reallocating vessels to more profitable regions, have significantly impacted supply-side variables [5][6]. Future Capacity Projections - By 2026, the delivery of new 24,000 TEU Panama-type vessels is not expected to significantly increase capacity on key routes, as existing services already meet demand [6][14]. Strategies for Suez Canal Operations - Shipping companies are employing various strategies to adapt to the reopening of the Suez Canal, including extending routes and entering emerging markets to absorb excess capacity [7][8]. Demand Trends - The demand outlook for trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes is mixed, with a projected decline in U.S. imports due to internal economic pressures rather than trade disputes. Conversely, European demand for Chinese goods is expected to remain strong, leading to record export volumes [9][10][11]. Palm Oil Industry Insights Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is influenced by production expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia, with potential declines in output due to aging plantations and adverse weather conditions [18][22]. Price Projections - Price ranges for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in 2026 are projected to be between 8,000-10,500 CNY/ton for palm oil, 7,500-9,000 CNY/ton for soybean oil, and 8,000-10,300 CNY/ton for rapeseed oil. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended due to current market sentiment [35]. Supply Challenges - Malaysia's palm oil production faces challenges from aging trees and low replanting rates, with the actual replanting rate significantly below recommended levels. This is expected to hinder production growth in 2026 [20][22]. Global Biodiesel Market - The global biodiesel market has seen a decline in 2025, with U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil's policy changes being focal points. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. biodiesel policies is expected to impact market sentiment and pricing [25][26]. Additional Insights Economic Factors - The economic conditions in Europe and the U.S. are expected to influence global trade and shipping, with Europe still recovering from the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. facing internal economic pressures affecting import levels [12][13]. Long-term Trends - The shipping industry is anticipated to remain stable with no significant increase in the number of routes, while the palm oil market may see a tightening supply situation due to various production challenges [14][24]. Regulatory Impacts - The UDR regulations in Europe will pose compliance challenges for South American exports, particularly for palm oil and soybeans, affecting trade dynamics [53][54]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the shipping and palm oil industries as they prepare for the upcoming year.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, the futures market has been weakly volatile, and port inventories have decreased [4][19] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, with a price difference of 10 yuan/m³ between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of December 7, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 7 of which were bound for the Chinese mainland and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in December and 0 in January. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.28 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.38 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.36 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.45 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.24 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventories, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.3528 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 million cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 0.4115 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0409 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 0.2247 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0494 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 0.1237 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0365 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1127 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1428 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trend - As of December 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 749 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The futures market continued to be weakly volatile this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 16 yuan/m³, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 28.5 yuan/m³, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 12.5 yuan/m³ [19] Other - As of the week of December 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2294.00 points, a decrease of 433 points (-15.9%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 814 points, a decrease of 3.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.46 points, an increase of 7.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.059, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.6% to 1.722 [6][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for logs continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. As of November 28, the national port inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters (-60,000), and the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters (-3,100). The 01 contract is currently in a contradictory state. Although it is approaching the delivery month, it starts to follow the valuation logic. However, there are certain differences between the 01 contract and the 11 contract. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not as optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area as before. At present, the spot market is weak, and factors such as the concerns of long - position holders about the handling difficulty of receiving goods in non - mainstream gathering places also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria. If the import is completely restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term. At present, it is not recommended to continue to chase short positions. Whether the 01 contract will continue to have a deep discount when entering delivery is uncertain. The 01 contract is currently undervalued, and the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, showing a continuous weak and volatile trend. The 03 contract can refer to the monthly spread of the 01 contract. From the perspective of the demand side, the probability that the traditional seasonal peak season of 03 cannot be realized is relatively high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market continued to decline last week. The lowest warehouse receipt cost in the disk is around 790 yuan/cubic meter, down about 10 yuan from the previous week. The national port inventory and daily average outbound volume data are at a relatively neutral level. The 01 contract is in a contradictory state. After the large negative line on October 27, it is basically unprofitable for general sellers to establish warehouse receipts. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, it is currently in a state of zero warehouse receipts. The industry is not optimistic about the delivery arbitrage space in the Chongqing area. The weak spot market and the concerns of long - position holders about receiving goods also make the willingness of long - position holders to receive goods not improve. The deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations may affect the import of Japanese cryptomeria, and if restricted, it may affect the supply - demand balance in the short term [3][4][5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Weak and volatile. - **Basis and Spread Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. - Spread strategy: Short the 01 - 03 monthly spread on rallies. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations**: - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits according to their inventory situation to prevent inventory losses and make up for production costs. The recommended shorting contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820. - For procurement management, when the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying contract is lg2601, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 740 - 750 [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The impact of cryptomeria import needs to be focused on [11]. - **Negative Information**: The report does not mention negative information. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis data of different log specifications in various ports on December 5, 2025 [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the 01 contract fluctuated, and the open interest increased to 15,000 lots. The reasons for the weak market include low willingness of buyers to receive goods in delivery, high delivery costs for sellers, a downward shift in foreign market quotes, an increase in short - term supply, weakening downstream consumption, and a decrease in spot prices. The 11 - 01 monthly spread reached - 50 before the delivery of the 11 contract. The 01 - 03 monthly spread structure may not replicate the previous state, but considering the weak spot market, it can still be shorted on rallies [15][17][18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 790 (down 10), and that in Shandong is around 803. The willingness of buyers to receive goods, calculated at a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price, is around 750 - 760. When the price approaches the warehouse receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [26]. 3.4.2 Import Profit - The import profit has been repaired to a certain extent. Reducing the proportion of mouth - material timber and increasing the proportion of integrated timber will improve the import profit of the whole ship [27]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From December 6 to 15, it is expected that 10 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 371,000 cubic meters. As of November 28, the daily average outbound volume was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared with the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will return to the destocking stage [30].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Log Weekly Report - Report date: December 7, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo - Company: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable compared to last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, with 29 ships expected to arrive in that month. - The demand for logs in ports decreased, with the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreasing week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - The log futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week. [4][5][14][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 bound for the Chinese mainland and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. Among them, about 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 29 in December. The expected arrival volume in November was 1.41 million cubic meters. [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 900 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 452,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 274,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 160,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 78,600 cubic meters. [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from last week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at -13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at -24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at -11.5 yuan per cubic meter. [20] 4. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254-point (9.9%) increase from last week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week-on-week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreasing by 0.8% to 1.73. [6][56]