1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily observations and analyses of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, different commodities show diverse trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy influences. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.07% to 1029 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.21% to 281.7 dollars/short ton. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure to decline [16]. - **Important Information**: In September 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, exceeding market expectations [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market is under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment and increasing supply pressure, with a downward - biased outlook [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points for the 05 contract, do a M11 - 1 long spread, and sell call options at high points [17]. Sugar - **Market Condition**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both declined. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market [18]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and Pakistan plans to import sugar. Typhoons have affected sugar cane in some areas of China [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global sugar production is increasing, and the price of raw sugar is weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by the external market [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, and wait and see for spreads [20]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices showed small changes. The overall oil market is expected to fluctuate [22]. - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in October, and the US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected [22][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The palm oil market lacks substantial positive factors, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets have different supply - demand situations. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, do an OI 1 - 5 long spread without chasing high prices, and wait and see for options [26]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Condition**: CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn prices are weak, but the 01 contract has rebounded [29]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of corn in northern ports and Guangdong ports has changed, and the purchase price in northern ports is relatively weak [30][31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn is expected to be weak in the short term, and the domestic corn price is under pressure, but the 01 contract has limited downward space [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 12 - contract corn, and gradually build long positions for the 01, 05, and 07 contracts. Wait and see for spreads and options [31]. Live Pigs - **Market Condition**: Pig prices showed a rebound, but the supply pressure remains [32]. - **Important Information**: Pig prices in different regions have changed, and the prices of piglets and sows have declined [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs is still high, and the pig price is under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [34]. Peanuts - **Market Condition**: The price of peanuts is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [35]. - **Important Information**: The price of peanut products is stable, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil has changed [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new - season peanuts are affected by rainfall, and the market is stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, wait and see for spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [37][38]. Eggs - **Market Condition**: Egg prices have stabilized, but the demand has not changed much [38]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of laying hens is high, and the sales volume of eggs has decreased [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is general. The egg price is expected to be weak [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions, wait and see for spreads and options [42][44]. Apples - **Market Condition**: The apple price is stable with a slight increase [44]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased, and the export and import volumes have changed. The price in different regions is stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The excellent - fruit rate is low, and the cost of making futures warrants is high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short term due to the expected low excellent - fruit rate, wait and see for spreads and options [47]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Condition**: ICE US cotton rose, and domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [49]. - **Important Information**: Xinjiang cotton is in the picking and purchasing season, and the demand for cotton cloth is weak [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic cotton output is high, and the demand is general. The cotton price is expected to be under pressure [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and domestic cotton is expected to be slightly weak. Wait and see for spreads and options [50]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Condition**: The steel market is under pressure, but the price is at a low valuation [52]. - **Important Information**: The environmental protection policy for the steel industry is introduced, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have decreased [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The steel inventory is increasing, and the demand is declining. The steel price is under pressure, but there is some support at the bottom [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom, do a long spread on the volume - to - coil difference at low prices, and wait and see for options [53]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Condition**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating [54]. - **Important Information**: The price of Mongolian coking coal is high, and the cost of steel production has increased [54][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal supply is stable, and the demand is supported. The market is balanced, and long positions can be lightly built at low points [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate, go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [56]. Iron Ore - **Market Condition**: The iron ore price is declining, and the market sentiment is affected [57]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium term, do a reverse cash - and - carry spread, and use a circuit - breaker cumulative put option strategy [59]. Ferroalloys - **Market Condition**: Ferroalloys are fluctuating at the bottom [59]. - **Important Information**: The inquiry price of a large steel mill for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have changed [59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is under pressure, but the valuation and cost provide support. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at the bottom, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [60]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Condition**: Gold and silver prices are strong [62]. - **Important Information**: The US dollar index fell, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under the expectation of loose liquidity, precious metals are expected to remain strong [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for spreads, and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options and take profits at high points [63]. Copper - **Market Condition**: The copper price needs to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged [63]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the global refined copper supply is in surplus [65][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect the copper price. The price needs to consolidate in the short term [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, hold a long cross - market spread, wait and see for options [67]. Alumina - **Market Condition**: The alumina price is weakening [68]. - **Important Information**: Some alumina enterprises are facing production cuts due to factors such as ore shortages and strikes [70][71]. - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market is in surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell, wait and see for spreads and options [72]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Condition**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be stronger in the medium term [73]. - **Important Information**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of tariffs on the aluminum price is limited, and the consumption is resilient. The price is expected to strengthen in the medium term [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Condition**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is affected by short - term macro - emotions, and scrap aluminum prices may be relatively firm [77]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots has changed, and the number of cast aluminum alloy warrants has decreased [77][78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global aluminum supply - demand is not directly affected, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight. The price is expected to be supported [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: The zinc price is affected by multiple factors [81]. - **Important Information**: The domestic zinc inventory is increasing, and the global zinc supply is expected to be in surplus [81][82]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is not improving. The price is under pressure, and the external - strong - internal - weak pattern may continue [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, wait and see for spreads and options [83]. Lead - **Market Condition**: The lead price is at a high level and may fall [86]. - **Important Information**: The global lead supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic lead inventory has decreased [86][87]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead market has weak supply and demand, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. The price may fall [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell due to the expected increase in supply, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [88]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: The nickel price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation [89]. - **Important Information**: The global refined nickel supply is in surplus, and LME nickel inventory is increasing [91]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel market is in surplus, and the price is under pressure [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell a 2511 contract strangle, wait and see for spreads [92]. Stainless Steel - **Market Condition**: The stainless steel price is under pressure [93]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports, and the inventory in the Foshan market has changed [93]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of stainless steel is increasing, but the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [93][96]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate weakly, wait and see for spreads [94][96]. Other Metals Industrial Silicon - **Market Condition**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [97]. - **Important Information**: There is a project for silica gel desiccant and intermediate water glass [97]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is affected by rumors of polysilicon production cuts. The price is under short - term pressure but may be supported in the medium term [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction in the short term, wait and see for spreads and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Condition**: The polysilicon price is expected to be strong [98]. - **Important Information**: The production of polysilicon is increasing, and the demand for silicon wafers is weakening [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is negative for the short - term, but the bottom of the price is being consolidated. The price is expected to break through new highs in the long term [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, do a 2511, 2512 contract reverse spread, adjust the double - buy strategy, close long put positions, and hold long call options [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Condition**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Important Information**: The government has issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lithium carbonate is uncertain, and the demand provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long, wait and see for spreads, and sell a 2601 contract strangle [101]. Tin - **Market Condition**: The tin price is declining slightly [102]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the Fed may cut interest rates [105]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tin market has weak supply and demand, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is affected by the situation in Myanmar [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [105].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on various investment varieties, suggesting investors adjust their positions according to the market situation and the development of the trade war, and provides corresponding option strategies for different varieties [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stocks - **Hong Kong Stocks**: If the trade war is less severe than expected, reduce short - term positions in the Hang Seng Technology Index and wait for better entry points. If it worsens, adopt a barbell strategy of technology (AI/innovative drugs/autonomous control) + dividends and buy technology assets at the right time [3]. - **US Stocks**: Short - term fluctuations are inevitable, but the decline will be less than in April. Reduce short - term positions and wait for better opportunities to enter the US technology stock market [3]. Futures - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the intensification of the trade war, Treasury bonds may open higher on Monday, but the upward trend may not last. Maintain a view of bottom - side oscillating and bearish [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The market has TACO trading expectations, but A - shares are overvalued, especially technology stocks with bubbles, and there is a risk of liquidity. The key lies in the development of the trade war and the government's willingness and strength to maintain stability. Consider buying short - term out - of - the - money put options and November call options [3]. Commodities - **Copper**: Prices are under pressure. If the trade conflict worsens, there may be further decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, which will be transmitted to the smelting end. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options on the far - month [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be affected by short - term negative sentiment, but the long - term trend is bullish. Consider constructing a collar strategy by buying put options and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **European Routes**: The 2510 contract may decline by 2 - 5%, the 2512 contract by about 10%, and the 2602 contract has a risk of significant decline [5]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a 5 - 6% decline in price, and a 10% decline in the most pessimistic scenario. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for short - term speculation [5]. - **Chemicals**: The impact is mainly on ethane and propane. Consider bearish spreads and wait for the market to stabilize before selling options [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Beans and some domestic - priced fresh products are strong, while cotton is weak. Consider buying call options on beans [5]. - **Black Metals**: The direct impact of the trade war on the fundamentals is small, but the valuation may decline. The decline amplitude may be smaller than that of other sectors [5]. - **New Energy and Related Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may decline by 5%. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money put options for tail protection [6]. - **Nickel**: The price is under pressure and may fluctuate. Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short at high prices with a light position [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to decline by 4 - 5%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may decline by 5 - 6%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy more out - of - the - money call options to construct an inverse spread option [6].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 21.9 percentage points compared to July[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was approximately 5.82%, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, which is a major support for the substantial profit increase[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) in August decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, indicating marginal improvement in price pressure[6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The low base effect is a significant reason for the substantial growth in industrial profits in August, with the PPI tail effect improving from -1.4% to -0.7%[4] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises is expected to further decline in September, indicating a seasonal downturn despite the low base effect providing short-term support[4] - The "anti-involution" policy and the upcoming National Day holiday have positively impacted certain industries, such as coal mining and non-ferrous metallurgy, suggesting initial effectiveness of the policy[4] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not be as effective as anticipated, and international geopolitical changes could exceed expectations[14] - There may be measurement errors in calculating the profit margins of industrial enterprises, which could affect the accuracy of the data[14] - If terminal demand does not improve significantly, midstream processing and manufacturing enterprises may face profit pressures, while industries benefiting from external demand and "anti-involution" may see increased concentration and cost transmission capabilities[4]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - From January to August 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue improved slightly with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[3] - August 2025 saw a significant profit growth of 20.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - In August 2025, the cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.7 yuan, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the same month in 2024, marking the first decline since July 2024[4] - Profit margins improved, with the profit rate turning positive after previously contributing negatively, indicating a recovery in profitability[4] - The contribution of profit factors in August 2025 was +5.6 from industrial added value, -3.2 from PPI, and +17.7 from profit margin year-on-year[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Public utility profits increased, with their share of total profits rising to 11.4%, while upstream mining and midstream equipment sectors showed varied performance[5] - The cumulative profit of upstream sectors improved by 3.8 percentage points to -9.1% year-on-year, with significant recovery in black metallurgy and chemical fiber sectors[5] - In August 2025, the profit of "anti-involution" industries improved by 3.8 percentage points to -4.3%, while non-anti-involution industries improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.9%[6] Group 4: Inventory and Economic Outlook - In August 2025, nominal inventory decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, while actual inventory fell by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year[7] - The report anticipates increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4 2025, which may affect the upward slope of equity markets, but timely policy support is expected to mitigate this impact[7]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Core Viewpoint - Henan Jinli Lead and Zinc Group Co., Ltd. has transformed from a small private factory into one of China's top 500 enterprises over 30 years, focusing on non-ferrous metallurgy and maintaining a commitment to innovation and sustainability [5][26]. Group 1: Company Development - The company was founded in 1995 with an initial investment of 1.62 million yuan by 12 farmers, starting with a copper smelting furnace [6]. - In 2001, the company entered the non-ferrous metallurgy sector, quickly establishing a foothold and generating its first profits [7]. - The company faced significant challenges during the 2008 global financial crisis, leading to a strategic shift from traditional lead smelting to comprehensive recycling [9][10]. - By 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 59.3 billion yuan, marking a 14% year-on-year growth and its best historical performance [11][27]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company emphasizes technological innovation, having developed its own direct reduction technology for liquid lead slag, significantly reducing energy consumption and emissions [16][18]. - It has obtained 207 national patents, including advancements in multi-metal projects and low-carbon processes [17][18]. - The company has successfully implemented a new high-efficiency pyrometallurgical zinc smelting technology, which reduces energy consumption by approximately 30% and pollutant emissions by over 40% [20]. Group 3: Environmental Responsibility - The company has established a green recycling model, achieving over 98% resource recovery rate from industrial waste [21][24]. - It has made significant investments in environmental protection, including 32.1 million yuan for upgrading pollution control equipment in 2003 [22]. - The company has been recognized as a national green factory and has implemented a comprehensive ESG governance system to enhance resource utilization efficiency [23][24]. Group 4: Social Responsibility - The company has invested over 100 million yuan in rural revitalization and public welfare over 30 years, benefiting local communities [27][31]. - It has created over 10,000 jobs and established a shareholding model that allows local villagers to benefit from the company's growth [30][32]. - The company has set up a special fund for rural revitalization, contributing over 40 million yuan to support local infrastructure and education [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Bullish [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bearish [2] - **Silver**: Bullish [1][5] - **Copper**: Bullish [5] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Bearish [5] - **Aluminum**: Bullish [5] - **Nickel**: Bullish [5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bearish [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Neutral [7] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish [7] - **Rebar**: Bearish [7] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish [7] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral [7] - **Coking Coal**: Neutral [9] - **Coke**: Neutral [9] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish [9] - **Float Glass**: Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Neutral [9] - **Methanol**: Bearish [9] - **Polyolefin**: Bearish [11] - **Cotton**: Neutral [11] - **Rubber**: Bullish [11] Core Views - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, with short - term fluctuations. The bullish position of IF can be held patiently, while the bond market remains cautious [2] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the previous long positions of silver AG2510 can be held. The production of PP has reached a record high, and new short positions can be entered [1][3] - The prices of precious metals are strong, and the long positions of silver contracts can be held. The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply, while the alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient [5] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production. The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak [9] - The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held. The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11] Summary by Category Financial Futures - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the previous long positions of IF2509 can be held. The bond market is still cautious [1][2] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals are strong. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the long positions of silver AG2510 and silver 10 - contract can be held [1][3][5] Non - Ferrous Metals - The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply. The alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient. The Indonesian strike causes concerns about nickel supply, and the nickel price is strong in the short term [5] Energy Metals - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] Steel and Ore - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] Coal and Coke - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production, and the prices are in a shock [9] Chemicals - The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak. The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] Polyolefins - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held [11] Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Jiyuan into a leading green lead-zinc and silver production base in China, emphasizing its innovative approaches to overcome resource limitations and achieve sustainable development [10][31]. Industry Overview - Jiyuan is recognized as the largest green lead-zinc base and silver production base in China, with lead-zinc output accounting for 13% of the national total and mineral silver output exceeding 40% [9][24]. - The non-ferrous metal industry in Jiyuan has a production value of nearly 200 billion yuan, with three companies listed among China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises [9][24]. Technological Innovation - Jiyuan's non-ferrous industry has adopted advanced smelting technologies, such as the liquid high-lead slag direct reduction process, which has significantly reduced energy consumption and pollution [14][21]. - Companies like Yuguang Group and Jinli Group have pioneered new technologies that enhance metal recovery rates and reduce environmental impact, showcasing the region's commitment to innovation [14][21]. Circular Economy - Jiyuan has established a closed-loop lifecycle for its non-ferrous industry, integrating mining, green smelting, and recycling processes to maximize resource utilization [24][23]. - The city has been recognized as a national-level circular economy pilot, focusing on transforming industrial waste into valuable resources [23][24]. Economic Development Strategy - The local government emphasizes the importance of precise positioning and leveraging comparative advantages to drive high-quality development in traditional industries [10][31]. - Jiyuan's strategy includes enhancing the competitiveness of its industrial clusters and addressing challenges such as high raw material costs and environmental regulations [26][28]. Future Directions - Jiyuan aims to further integrate into the national market and enhance its global competitiveness by fostering innovation and collaboration across the non-ferrous metal industry [30][28]. - The city is focusing on building a comprehensive platform for the non-ferrous industry to streamline resources, technology, and talent, thereby promoting sustainable growth [30][29].