| 原油产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | | | | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 12月4日 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent 63.26 | | 62.67 | 0.59 | 0.94% | | | WTI 59.67 | | 58.95 | 0.72 | 1.22% | 美元/桶 | | SC 451.30 | | 449.30 | 2.00 | 0.45% | 元/神 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 6.56% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 22.00% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | -1.50 | -1.30 | -0.20 | 15.38% | 元/神 | | Brent-WTI | 3.59 | 3.72 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. If the raw material output is smooth, the rubber price is expected to weaken; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased from 14,800 to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 200 yuan and a growth rate of 1.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14,600 to 14,650 yuan/ton, with a rise of 50 yuan and a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of natural rubber futures increased from - 50 to - 35 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 30.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 5.45% to 451.50 thousand tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 1.71% to 195.00 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 8.60 thousand tons [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The geopolitical situation still supports oil prices in the short term, but under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On November 28, Brent crude oil was at 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49 US dollars or 0.78% from the previous day; WTI crude oil was at 58.55 US dollars/barrel; SC crude oil was at 450.90 yuan/barrel, up 5.80 yuan or 1.30% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: ICE Gasoil was at 669.75 US dollars/ton on November 28, up 5.75 US dollars or 0.87% from the previous day [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The European gasoline crack spread decreased by 12.98% to 17.82 US dollars/barrel on November 28 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with limited upward and downward space. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term but may face pressure later, especially the 01 contract in December [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The North China glass quotation increased from 1070 to 1090 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.87% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production decreased due to some device overhauls, with the production rate dropping by 3.14% to 80.08% and the weekly output decreasing by 3.15% to 69.81 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.49% to 6236.20 ten - thousand weight boxes, and the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.47% to 158.74 million tons [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The increase in inland methanol supply is offset by weak coal - and gas - based profits. The reduction in port imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the port de - stocking expectation, providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The MA2601 closing price increased from 2114 to 2135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99% [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19% to 37.3712 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.67% to 75.74%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.78% to 82.31% [6]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Both polypropylene and polyethylene present a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary by Directory - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The L2601 closing price increased from 6789 to 6857 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.34% [9]. - **Polyolefin Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% to 45.4 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% to 54.6 million tons [9]. - **Polyolefin Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.17% to 84.5%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93% to 46.6% [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance, but its upward driving force is insufficient [11]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased from 665 to 669 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 0.6% [11]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price increased from 6560 to 6630 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.1% [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.6% to 16.40 million tons, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 76.6% [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. PTA is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in December. Short - fiber has limited price - driving force, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [12]. Summary by Directory - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The POY150/48 price decreased from 6490 to 6465 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.4% [12]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price increased from 826 to 836 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2% [12]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The PTA East China spot price increased from 4610 to 4635 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.5% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Caustic soda prices are expected to run weakly, and PVC is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with weak demand and an oversupply pattern [13]. Summary by Directory - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price increased from 4450 to 4470 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4% [13]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6% to 90.3%, and the PVC overall operating rate increased by 1.0% to 77.5% [13]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 1.0% to 80.4% [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: The main PG2512 contract price increased from 4259 to 4412 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.59% [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 7.70% to 23.7% [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 74.74%, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.26% to 69.8% [14].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 27 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached $144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounted to $210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [1] - A-share buyback amounts have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, marking the second-highest level in history, with over 100 companies doubling their stock prices after implementing buybacks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication and media sectors leading the gains, while defense and transportation sectors lagged [2] - The financing balance decreased by 2.88 billion yuan to 2.4423 trillion yuan on November 24, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2] - The "Fifteen Five" plan continues to focus on technological self-reliance, suggesting that the technology sector remains a long-term investment direction [2] Group 3 - Palm oil inventories continue to accumulate, with a 16.4% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports expected for November 1-25 [3] - The domestic supply of rapeseed oil is under pressure due to increased raw material supply, leading to price declines [3] - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressures emerge from overseas production, while domestic production transitions to the off-season [3] Group 4 - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, rubber prices are expected to weaken; if supply is disrupted, prices may range from 15,000 - 15,500 [1] Ester Industry - PX is expected to be range - bound at high levels in the short term, with a tight supply - demand outlook in the medium term. PTA's TA01 may oscillate between 4,500 - 4,800 in the short term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be range - bound at low levels. Short - fiber prices have limited upward drivers, and bottle - chip prices will follow the cost trend [3] Polyolefin Industry - The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP are under pressure due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has a bearish supply - demand outlook, and short - selling opportunities are recommended after price rebounds. Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is suggested [6] Crude Oil Industry - The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. Short - term support for Brent crude is at $60 per barrel, and geopolitical developments in Russia and Ukraine should be monitored [7] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventories. The current trading logic is "weak reality", and the inventory issue in the 01 contract remains unresolved [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene is expected to have limited rebound space in the short term, and short - selling opportunities are recommended for BZ2603. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and changes in its production facilities and export volume should be monitored [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most rubber spot prices declined on November 21, with the basis of whole milk rubber dropping by 22.50% [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1] - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand's and Vietnam's rubber production decreased in September, while India's and China's increased. Tire production and export volume decreased in October [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories increased, while the outbound rate of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1] Ester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil and naphtha prices declined, while ethylene prices remained stable [3] - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX prices decreased by 1.1% [3] - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices declined, and the basis was repaired [3] - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices declined, and the basis decreased [3] - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most polyester product prices and cash flows declined [3] Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices declined, and spreads changed [5] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most polyolefin spot prices declined, and the basis of some products increased [5] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and some operating rates changed [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in some regions declined, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices were stable, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and some inventory decreased [6] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas all declined [6] Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices declined, and spreads changed [7] - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most refined oil prices and spreads declined [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Most refined oil crack spreads declined [7] Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices declined, and the basis increased [9] - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [9] - **Operating Rates**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased, and styrene port inventory decreased. Some operating rates changed [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures prices declined, and spreads changed [12] - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand have certain pressures, and demand is weak [12] - **Inventory**: Some caustic soda and PVC inventories increased or decreased [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural film. It is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, and the market is expected to have limited rebound space [2]. Methanol - In the inland market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance. Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, putting pressure on the port methanol market. The market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, and the 01 - contract inventory contradiction cannot be resolved. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal device operation [4]. Crude Oil - The short - term crude oil market has no clear direction. The continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones support the oil price, but the continuous production increase of OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production limit the rebound space. Brent oil is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [7]. Natural Rubber - Supply - side factors such as cold weather in Yunnan and continuous rainy season in southern Thailand may keep raw material prices high. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space; otherwise, the rubber price is expected to run between 15000 - 15500 [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be relatively loose, with limited demand support and high port inventory. The short - term rebound space of BZ2603 is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. Styrene's supply - demand situation has improved in November, but the rebound space is also limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 for EB12 [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with high production and inventory transfer to the middle and lower reaches. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass has short - term rigid demand support but faces long - term demand contraction pressure, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has support, but the rebound sustainability is insufficient. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November and loose in the future. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation, and short - fiber and bottle - chip also face supply - demand challenges [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the alumina industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with weak demand and limited upward driving force [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices decreased slightly. L15 and PP15 spreads increased. Spot prices of some products decreased, and some basis values changed [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and social inventories of PE decreased. The PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 showed different trends [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices decreased. Some basis values and regional spreads changed. Methanol enterprise inventory decreased, while port and social inventories increased [4]. - **开工率**: Domestic and overseas upstream enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased [4]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Prices**: Some refined product prices such as NYM RBOB decreased, while NYM ULSD increased [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and some spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries decreased, while China's production increased. Tire production and export showed different trends, and import volume increased [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and some spreads such as pure benzene - naphtha increased [11]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - styrene prices increased, and some spreads and cash - flows changed [11]. - **Downstream Cash - flows and开工率**: Cash - flows of some downstream products changed, and the开工率 of some products also changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices had different changes, and some basis values changed [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and开工率 decreased, and glass melting volume remained unchanged. Inventories of glass and soda ash increased [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash - flows**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [13]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 had different changes, and MEG port inventory and arrival expectations were also provided [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and some spreads and basis values changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side开工率 of PVC and caustic soda changed, and demand - side downstream开工率 also changed. Inventories of PVC and caustic soda decreased [14].