1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Due to factors such as the decline in steel mill profits and high inventory pressure, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly operating and are expected to be in short - term consolidation, following the overall commodity environment due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [13]. - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With existing real - world constraints, it is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. - Glass is in the traditional peak - season end, with weak demand and increasing supply, and the market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short term [19]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.689%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,414 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 18,322 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin aggregated price remained unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 896 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 8,822 lots. In the spot market, the Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and steel product prices showed weak oscillations. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small reduction in inventory, but demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, with prominent fundamental contradictions [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, up 0.58% (+4.50), with the open interest changing to 558,200 lots, a decrease of 4,570 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.76% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The latest average daily hot - metal output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons month - on - month. Some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. - Overall: Affected by factors such as profit decline and high inventory, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 22, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed up 1.11% at 5,810 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures. - The main ferrosilicon contract (SF601) closed up 1.17% at 5,558 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are in an oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the price direction at the current trend line [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Current factors such as weak real - demand and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions have pressured prices. However, the market has insufficient trading of expectations for subsequent important meetings. There may be an expected difference. - It is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8,485 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (-20). The weighted - contract open interest increased to 438,479 lots, an increase of 2,236 lots. In the spot market, the price of East China non - oxygen - permeable 553 remained unchanged, and the price of 421 decreased by 50 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the overall market environment, industrial silicon prices are weakly operating. The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with overall supply pressure. The demand has potential risks of weakening support. Cost factors provide some support. Overall, it is expected to be in short - term consolidation and follow the commodity environment [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 50,310 yuan/ton, down 0.80% (-405). The weighted - contract open interest decreased to 247,499 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2,690 yuan/ton for the main contract [14][15]. Strategy Viewpoints - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With factors such as over - expected production increase and reduced downstream production scheduling, there is real - world inventory pressure. It is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. Glass Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+7). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 372 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 9,410 short positions [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Entering the end of the traditional peak season, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. The market's supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term, and it is expected to remain weakly operating without external stimuli [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1,223 yuan/ton, up 1.07% (+13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders increased 2,351 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 12,374 short positions [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The soda ash industry has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in port inventories, and weak terminal demand. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are affected by supply pressure and follow the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation. Polysilicon prices are in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak shock trend due to high inventory and weak demand. Soda ash prices are expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation due to a loose supply - demand pattern [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 147,655 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 1,609 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices remained unchanged. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.343%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,379 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 7,152 lots. The Lechang spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai price remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the economic development in the next five years. Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, demand increased after the holiday, but inventory remained high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to narrow [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00). The open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.24% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 0.59 tons to 240.95 tons. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Overall: The iron ore price is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.35% at 5738 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 0.11% at 5436 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 164 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - Current factors such as high hot metal levels and inventory pressure on the plate side are mostly priced in. Macro factors such as important meetings will be more important. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon may be driven by the manganese ore end, and ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8565 yuan/ton, up 1.60% (+ 135). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 14,328 lots to 427,791 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 735 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 50340 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (- 2000). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 23,629 lots to 253,316 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2460 yuan/ton [12][14]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure exists, and it is expected to consolidate in the short - term, following the commodity environment. - Polysilicon: It is in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59% (+ 18). The North China large - plate price decreased by 30 yuan, and the Central China price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 145.16 million cases (+ 2.31%). - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+ 3). The Shahe heavy - soda price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 4.07 million tons (+ 2.31%) [17][19]. Strategy Views - Glass: Due to high inventory and weak demand, it is expected to maintain a weak shock trend. - Soda ash: Due to a loose supply - demand pattern, it is expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing moderate easing without immediate adjustments to short-term policies [1] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The LPR remained unchanged in September, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts have influenced market risk appetite positively [1] Key Commodities Oil - Oil prices are under pressure due to recent weather impacts in Malaysia, with palm oil production expected to decrease by 8.05% for the period of September 1-15, 2025 [2][27] - Exports of Malaysian palm oil are projected to decline by 24.7% during the same period, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil sector [2][27] Gold - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, gold prices have rebounded, reaching new highs [3][18] - Strong retail sales data from the U.S. and ongoing expectations for further rate cuts have sustained bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have risen, with significant trading volumes, indicating a phase of consolidation after prolonged gains [4][10] - The financing balance decreased by 4.15 billion yuan to 23.816 trillion yuan, reflecting a divergence in market sentiment [4][10] Domestic News - The implementation of the "9.24" policy package has strengthened the foundation for stability in China's capital markets, with significant increases in trading volumes and new account openings [6] - As of September 18, the financing and securities balance reached 24.024 trillion yuan, with daily trading volumes in the A-share market exceeding 3 trillion yuan multiple times this year [6] Industry News - The State Council is prioritizing the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes, aiming to enhance consumer rights and choices [8] Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with current freight rates declining significantly, indicating a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].