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资金跟踪系列之三十六:杠杆资金小幅回流,北上加速净流出
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-16 11:46
Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations also increasing [2][16] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [2][23] Group 2: Market Trading Activity and Volatility - Market trading activity has decreased, with major indices experiencing increased volatility; sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, electric new energy, public utilities, and construction are above the 90th percentile in trading activity [3][28] - The volatility of major indices, including the CSI 300 and ChiNext, has continued to rise, with steel and military sectors also showing volatility above the 90th historical percentile [3][35] Group 3: Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, electric new energy, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with banking and automotive sectors showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][46] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027, with increases noted in sectors such as electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, construction, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [5][19] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 has increased across the A-share market [5][17] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to net sell A-shares, with a notable increase in the buy/sell ratio for electric new energy, electronics, and automotive sectors [6][32] - Northbound trading primarily net bought coal and oil and petrochemical sectors, while net selling occurred in electronics, computing, and chemicals [6][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly increased but remains at a low level, with net buying primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and computing sectors [7][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased across most sectors, with net buying focused on mid-cap growth and mid/small-cap value stocks [7][38] Group 7: Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in military, machinery, and automotive sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and steel [9][45] - ETFs have continued to experience net redemptions, particularly in broad-based indices like CSI 500, CSI 300, and ChiNext, while sectors such as electric power and public utilities saw net inflows [9][52]
杠杆资金小幅回流,北上加速净流出
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-16 06:39
Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations also increasing [2][16]. - Offshore US dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [2][22]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has decreased, with major indices experiencing increased volatility. Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, electric new energy, public utilities, and construction are trading at above the 90th percentile [3][27]. - The volatility of the steel and military industries is also above the 90th historical percentile [3][35]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, electric new energy, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with banks and automotive sectors seeing a month-on-month increase in research intensity [4][46]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously raised the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased compared to previous periods [5][54][55]. - Specific sectors such as electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, construction, machinery, and pharmaceuticals have also seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [5][54]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to net sell A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell amounts in sectors like electric new energy, electronics, and automotive has increased, while it has decreased in food and beverage, communications, and non-ferrous metals [6][31]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought coal and oil and petrochemical sectors, while net selling occurred in electronics, computing, chemicals, and other sectors [6][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level. The net buying was primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and computing sectors, while net selling occurred in non-ferrous metals, communications, and military sectors [7][35]. - The financing buy-in ratio has increased across most sectors, indicating a slight recovery in margin financing activity [7][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in military, machinery, and automotive sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and steel sectors [9][45]. - The correlation of active equity funds with large/mid/small-cap growth has increased, while the correlation with value stocks has decreased [9][48].
——金融工程市场跟踪周报20260315:风险偏好上行-20260315
EBSCN· 2026-03-15 03:51
- The report tracks the market performance of various indices and sectors for the week of March 9, 2026, to March 13, 2026, highlighting the divergence in performance among different indices and sectors[1][12][13] - The report includes a quantitative sentiment tracking section, which discusses volume-based timing signals for various indices, indicating a bullish view for indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, while maintaining a cautious view for others like CSI 1000 and the ChiNext Index[24][25] - The report introduces the "Number of Rising Stocks in CSI 300" sentiment indicator, which calculates the proportion of CSI 300 constituent stocks with positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[26] - The report also discusses the "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator," which uses the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 closing price to determine market trends and sentiment[33][34] - The report evaluates market profitability through cross-sectional and time-series volatility, noting that the short-term Alpha environment has deteriorated for indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000[38][39][42] - The report tracks institutional research activities, highlighting the most researched stocks and sectors, and provides data on the number of research activities conducted by different types of institutions[43][45][53][55] - The report includes a section on stock index futures tracking, providing weekly statistics for various futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, and discussing the changes in basis and annualized returns[58][59][60][61] - The report tracks southbound capital flows, noting a net inflow of HKD 524.40 billion for the week, with specific inflows from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects[72][74] - The report provides data on changes in financing scale, noting an increase in financing balance by CNY 182.78 billion as of March 12, 2026[74][75] - The report tracks the ETF market, providing data on weekly returns and net inflows/outflows for different types of ETFs, including stock, cross-border, Hong Kong, and commodity ETFs[76][77][78] - The report discusses the tracking of fund clustering degree, using the degree of separation indicator to monitor the clustering degree of funds, noting a slight decline in the clustering degree as of March 13, 2026[84][86][87]
港股市场速览:整体业绩下修反转,能源板块上涨强势
Guoxin Securities· 2026-03-15 03:26
证券研究报告 | 2026年03月15日 港股市场速览 优于大市 整体业绩下修反转,能源板块上涨强势 股价表现:整体回撤放缓,能源板块强势 本周,恒生指数-1.1%(上周-3.3%),恒生综指-1.0%(上周-3.8%)。风格 方面,小盘(恒生小型股+1.5%)>大盘(恒生大型股-1.0%)>中盘(恒生 中型股-2.2%)。 主要概念指数多数下跌。上涨幅度较大的主要有恒生科技(+0.6%);下跌 幅度较大的主要有恒生生物科技(-4.0%)。 国信海外选股策略组合多数下跌。上涨的主要有自由现金流 30(+1.6%); 下跌的主要有 ROE 策略进攻型(-4.9%)。 11 个行业上涨,19 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有:煤炭(+11.5%)、石油石 化(+8.5%)、电力设备及新能源(+7.0%)、传媒(+3.8%)、汽车(+2.4%); 下跌的主要有:国防军工(-8.2%)、纺织服装(-4.8%)、机械(-4.0%)、 房地产(-3.9%)、银行(-3.6%)。 估值水平:整体略有回落,行业分化显著 本周,恒生指数估值(动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率,后同)-0.2%至 11.2x; 恒生综指估值-0.6%至 1 ...
中银量化多策略行业轮动周报–20260313-20260313
Core Insights - The report highlights the current allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy industry rotation system, with significant positions in basic chemicals (15.3%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (14.1%), and power equipment and new energy (13.9) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is 1.3%, with the best-performing sectors being coal (6.4%), power equipment and new energy (6.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (5.7%) [3][10] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 2.4% this week, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.1% [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report indicates that the best-performing sectors for the week include coal (6.4%), power equipment and new energy (6.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (5.7%), while the worst performers are petroleum and petrochemicals (-4.8%), defense and military (-3.0%), and non-ferrous metals (-2.7%) [3][10] - The average weekly return across 30 CITIC primary industries is 1.3%, with a similar average return over the past month [10] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the past six years' PB ratios, indicating that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense and military, petroleum and petrochemicals, machinery, coal, and power and utilities are currently above the 95% percentile of historical PB valuations, triggering a high valuation warning [12][13] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non-bank financials, and power equipment and new energy [14][15] - The report outlines that the S2 implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks the top three industries as power equipment and new energy, communication, and basic chemicals [19] Composite Strategy Allocation and Performance Review - The composite strategy continues to increase positions in midstream non-cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to real estate and midstream cyclical sectors [3][10] - The report details that the composite strategy's current industry allocation includes significant weights in basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and power equipment and new energy [1] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries based on current macro indicators as banking, home appliances, power and utilities, construction, transportation, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [24][25]
ETF基金资金跟踪:目前周期板块资金热度较高
Dongguan Securities· 2026-03-13 08:52
Market Performance Review - The equity market has shown strong performance this year, with the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and CSI Dividend indices performing relatively well. The cyclical style leads the market, followed by growth and stability styles. Strong sectors include coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, building materials, electric equipment, and new energy [3][8] - In the commodity market, the South China crude oil index has performed relatively well this year [11] - The commodity fund index has also shown strong performance, benefiting from the rise in oil and gold prices [11] ETF Fund Capital Tracking - As of now, the cyclical sector (real estate, oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, building materials, chemicals) has a relatively high capital heat. The top 5 ETFs by capital heat are: Huaan Gold ETF, Haifutong CSI Short Bond ETF, Fortune CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme ETF, and Hang Seng Technology [15][17] - The capital heat is assessed based on net inflows over various time frames, with the cyclical sector showing a capital heat score of 100 [15][16] Future Strategy Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Key tasks outlined in the government work report include building a strong domestic market, fostering new growth drivers, and enhancing technological self-reliance [18][19] - The economic recovery transmission chain indicates that in a context of interest rate cuts and weakened dollar credit, financial assets (gold, silver) perform strongly first, followed by industrial metals (copper), and then energy and chemical sectors due to supply constraints and demand recovery [22] - The current market cycle can be compared to the 2014 cycle, which was divided into three phases. The current cycle is characterized by growth leading, followed by a potential catch-up phase for cyclical and consumer styles [24][25]
两融重新净流出,ETF、北上净卖出放缓
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-09 12:31
Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [2][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced and relatively loose [2][21]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, military industry, public utilities, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [3][27]. - The volatility of major indices has increased, with sectors like steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals showing volatility above the 80th percentile [3][33]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 70th historical percentile [3][37]. Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceutical sectors are leading in research activity, with construction materials, computing, media, pharmaceuticals, and textiles showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][44]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 have been downgraded, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions decreasing [5][19]. - Specific sectors such as computing, transportation, machinery, electricity, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [5][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices for 2026/2027 have been increased, while the forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have been decreased [5][23]. - Mid-cap/small-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have seen upward revisions in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [5][25]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased slightly, continuing to show a net sell-off in A-shares [6][31]. - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for sectors like telecommunications, electric new energy, and automobiles has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [6][32]. - For stocks with northbound holdings below 30 million shares, there has been a net buying in electronics, electric new energy, and media sectors, while net selling occurred in computing, military, and coal sectors [6][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly declined to the lowest point since mid-July 2025, with a net sell-off of 24.172 billion yuan last week [6][35]. - The main net buying occurred in oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and non-ferrous sectors, while net selling was seen in TMT, electric new energy, and banking sectors [6][36]. - Only the financing buying ratio for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, textiles, and transportation sectors has increased [6][38]. Long-Short Trading Activity - The trading heat in the long-short list has decreased, with the total trading amount falling and its proportion of total A-share trading also declining [7][41]. - Sectors like oil and petrochemicals and agriculture have a relatively high and still rising proportion of trading amounts in the long-short list [7][44]. Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen a net redemption, although the pace has noticeably slowed [8][45]. - After excluding the impact of price changes, actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in oil and petrochemicals, military, and media sectors, while reducing positions in electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [8][47]. - The correlation between actively managed equity funds and small-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing an increase in establishment scale [8][50].
资金跟踪系列之三十五:两融重新净流出,ETF、北上净卖出放缓
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-09 09:47
Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose [2][20] Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, military industry, public utilities, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [3][27] - Volatility has increased across major indices, with sectors like steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals showing volatility above the 80th percentile [3][33] - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceutical sectors are leading in research activity, with construction materials, computing, media, pharmaceuticals, and textiles showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously downgraded net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 [5][51] - The proportion of stocks with upgraded net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 has decreased across the A-share market [5][51] - Sectors such as computing, transportation, machinery, electricity, and public utilities have seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices for 2026/2027 have been upgraded [5][23] - Mid-cap/small-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have also seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][25] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded slightly, continuing to show a small net sell-off in A-shares [6][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for Northbound trading in sectors like telecommunications, electric new energy, and automobiles has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [6][32] - Northbound trading has mainly net bought in sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, and media, while net selling occurred in computing, military, and coal sectors [6][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly declined to the lowest point since mid-July 2025 [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing have been in oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in TMT, electric new energy, and banking sectors [6][39] - Only sectors like agriculture, textiles, and transportation have seen an increase in the proportion of financing purchases [6][38] Trading Heat on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading heat on the Dragon and Tiger list has decreased, with the total trading amount falling [7][41] - Sectors like oil and petrochemicals and agriculture have a relatively high trading amount on the Dragon and Tiger list, which is still on the rise [7][44] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have continued to reduce their positions, while ETFs have seen a net redemption, although the pace has noticeably slowed [8][45] - After excluding price fluctuation factors, active equity funds have mainly increased positions in oil and petrochemicals, military, and media sectors, while reducing positions in electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [8][47] - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has rebounded, with both active and passive new establishment scales increasing [8][50] - ETFs related to the CSI 500, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 have seen significant net redemptions, while ETFs tracking sectors like brokerages have been net subscribed [8][52]
量化行业配置:行业超预期轮动策略今年累计超额4.13%
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-06 14:00
Market and Industry Overview - In the past month, major domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Guozheng 2000, Zhongzheng 1000, Zhongzheng 500, and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 rising by 4.07%, 3.71%, 3.44%, and 0.09% respectively, while the Shanghai 50 fell by -0.88% [10] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, 22 sectors experienced gains, with the steel, building materials, machinery, coal, and defense industries leading the way. The steel industry had the highest monthly increase at 9.52%. Conversely, consumer services, non-bank financials, and media sectors lagged behind, with monthly declines of -3.37%, -3.48%, and -4.22% respectively [10][11] Industry Rotation Strategy Performance - In February, factor performance varied, with profitability and valuation momentum factors continuing to perform well, achieving IC values of 15.81% and 30.64% respectively. The analyst expectation factor had an IC value of 5.47% [18] - The long-short returns for profitability and valuation momentum were 2.74% and 9.53% respectively. For the year-to-date, the average IC values for profitability and valuation momentum factors were 33.94% and 36.14%, with long positions yielding returns of 1.91% and 6.63% respectively [18] - The February performance of the supernormal enhancement industry rotation strategy yielded a return of 6.86%, while the equal-weight benchmark return was 4.83%, resulting in an excess return of 2.03% [32] Current Industry Recommendations - The supernormal enhancement industry rotation strategy for March recommends the non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, telecommunications, electronics, and machinery sectors. The strategy has removed media and defense industries from its holdings and added telecommunications and machinery [46] - The basic chemicals sector saw an increase in analyst expectation scores, ranking second among all sectors, while the telecommunications sector's supernormal factor score significantly improved, elevating its total ranking to third [46] - The basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and real estate sectors were recommended by the valuation industry rotation strategy, with the defense, steel, and real estate sectors not included in the supernormal enhancement strategy [46] Research Industry Selection Strategy - The research industry selection strategy for March includes telecommunications, home appliances, non-bank financials, electric power and public utilities, and electric equipment and new energy sectors. The research heat for telecommunications, home appliances, electric power and public utilities, and new energy sectors has increased, while the research crowding for telecommunications, home appliances, non-bank financials, and electric power and public utilities has decreased, leading to their recommendation [46][50]
热点追踪周报:由创新高个股看市场投资热点(第 233 期)-20260306
Guoxin Securities· 2026-03-06 09:34
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market momentum and highlights leading stocks or indices that are driving market trends[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying stocks with stable price paths and consistent momentum. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, relative strength, and price stability to select stocks with strong and sustained performance[23][26]. - **Model Construction Process**: The screening process involves the following steps: 1. **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months[26]. 2. **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market in terms of 250-day price performance[26]. 3. **Price Stability**: Stocks are scored based on two indicators: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price path length over the past 120 days[23]. - **Sustained New Highs**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[23]. 4. **Trend Continuation**: Stocks with the lowest average 250-day new high distance over the past five days are selected, with the top 50 stocks chosen for further analysis[26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and sustained momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus generate stronger momentum effects[23][26]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.40% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.28% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.44% - CSI 1000: 3.64% - CSI 2000: 3.00% - ChiNext Index: 4.69% - STAR 50 Index: 9.10%[2][12][30] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 27 stocks were identified as stable new high stocks, including Zhongwu Gaoxin, Baiwei Storage, and Jereh Co. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 9 stocks (e.g., machinery sector) - Cyclical: 9 stocks (e.g., basic chemicals sector)[27][31] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative position of a stock's or index's price compared to its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The calculation is the same as the 250-day new high distance model: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - $ Close_t $: Latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies stocks or indices with strong momentum, which are often market leaders[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement, with smoother paths indicating stronger and more sustainable momentum[23]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The smoothness is calculated as the ratio of price displacement to the total price path length over the past 120 days[23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Stocks with smoother price paths tend to exhibit stronger momentum effects due to reduced investor attention[23]. 3. Factor Name: Sustained New Highs - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the consistency of a stock's ability to reach new highs over time, reflecting its trend strength[23]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The average 250-day new high distance is calculated over the past 120 days to assess the stock's sustained performance[23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights stocks with strong and consistent upward trends, making them attractive for momentum-based strategies[23]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.40% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.28% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.44% - CSI 1000: 3.64% - CSI 2000: 3.00% - ChiNext Index: 4.69% - STAR 50 Index: 9.10%[2][12][30] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Stocks with smoother price paths were identified, including Zhongwu Gaoxin, Baiwei Storage, and Jereh Co[27][31]. 3. Sustained New Highs Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Stocks with consistent new highs over the past 120 days were identified, with the top performers being from the manufacturing and cyclical sectors[27][31].