金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250512-20250516） 本周指数涨跌不一 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数涨跌不一，其中沪深 300 上涨 1.12%，中证 500 下跌 0.1%，中证 1000 下跌 0.23%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 12.37%，相对于上周上涨了 0.71%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 16.25%，相对于上周下跌了 0.4%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 19.61%，相对于上周下跌了 0.06%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 13.37%，相 对于上周上涨了 0.49%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 4 月 30 日到 2025 年 5 月 9 日正 面信号共出现了 3465 次，未来高点平均胜率为 59.95%，负面信号出现 2996 次，未来低点平均胜率为 37.32%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数出现看多信号，其 余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，商贸零售、家电、纺织服装、电力及公用事业、消 费者服务、交通运输、银行出现看多信号，其余行业信号为中性。 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 主力资金有效性持续修复，景气预期超额收益开 始抬头 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周 3400 得而复失，回调后仍站上 3350。我们最新推荐 的非银行业收益亮眼。因子角度来看近期市场热点受事件 驱动影响较大，分析师短期预期表现更好，也能抓住非银 的反弹行情。此外市场资金驱动特征明显，主力资金因子 多头的非银、汽车领涨市场。动量反转层面处于反转因子 和短端动量的交接时刻，可以提前关注短期动量有效性的 回升。财报质量因子继续偏向成长口径，景气投资思路有 效性开始小幅回升。 整体看行业轮动因子指向内需成长板块：大盘成交金额持 续在 1.1 万亿以上，主题投资和景气投资均有反弹，主力 资金因子反弹延续，本期主力资金因子行业选择电子、电 力设备及新能源、医药、机械、有色金属、非银行金融。 长期分析师预期非银行金融、建材、交通运输、电力及公 用事业、有色金属，空头无意义。短期分析师预期指向农 林牧渔、消费者服务、非银行金融、机械、有色金属。本 期选择行业继续偏向内需中的成长，继续关注低位消费短 期反弹机会。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Highs - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, serving as market indicators and highlighting the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4] - As of May 16, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 3.50%, Shenzhen Component Index at 11.44%, CSI 300 at 8.62%, CSI 500 at 9.71%, CSI 1000 at 8.22%, CSI 2000 at 5.97%, ChiNext Index at 20.03%, and STAR Market 50 Index at 11.68% [5][24] Group 2: High-Performing Stocks - A total of 544 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the basic chemical, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors, totaling 81, 64, and 43 stocks respectively [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, transportation, and defense industries, with respective proportions of 64.29%, 20.33%, and 17.65% [13][26] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most stocks reaching new highs this week, with 174 and 157 stocks respectively, while the consumer, technology, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors had 68, 67, 43, and 32 stocks respectively [16] - The proportion of new high stocks in various indices includes: CSI 2000 at 10.05%, CSI 1000 at 7.80%, CSI 500 at 7.40%, CSI 300 at 10.33%, ChiNext Index at 5.00%, and STAR Market 50 Index at 6.00% [16][26] Group 4: Stable High-Performing Stocks - The report identifies 47 stable high-performing stocks, including Shuanglin Co., Wanchen Group, and Zhongchong Co., with the majority from the manufacturing and consumer sectors, totaling 17 and 11 stocks respectively [3][21] - The automotive industry leads in the manufacturing sector for new highs, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry leads in the consumer sector [21]

大运河的碧波还在流淌，瘦西湖的烟雨依旧迷蒙，可扬州城的GDP排名却像被抽了脊梁骨——这座曾在唐诗宋词里镶金边的"月亮之城"，如今在江苏十三太 保的榜单上跌到了第七！今儿咱就掀开历史的绸缎，看看这座2500岁的江南老贵族，咋从"扬一益二"的全球顶流混成了三线小透明，顺便给那些捧着"祖宗 基业"躺平的城市敲一记醒木！ 地理位置的锅甩不掉。长江北岸听着挺霸气，可过江通道比苏州少一半，润扬大桥天天堵成停车场。人家镇江隔江吃沪宁线红利，扬州守着连淮扬镇铁路当 宝贝，结果2020年通车才发现这铁路就是个"省内观光专列"。更扎心的是人才流失，扬州大学毕业生七成往苏南跑，科教创新指数全省第八，比不过连云港 这"沿海洼地"。 文旅牌打得稀烂更气人。瘦西湖门票敢收150，比故宫贵三倍；东关街卖着义乌小商品，早茶三春被网红店冲得七零八落。隔壁绍兴搞出鲁迅故里IP，扬州 还把"早上皮包水"当传家宝。2023年旅游收入刚过千亿，不到苏州三分之一，连"散装十三妹"泰州都靠溱潼会船反超了。 说到底，扬州这出"贵族落难记"给所有吃老本的城市敲了丧钟：运河能载舟也能覆舟，祖宗阔过不是免死金牌。当苏州把古典园林玩成数字经济孵化器，当 宿迁用京东 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures, stating that such actions are unilateral and protectionist, harming the interests of other countries and disrupting the multilateral trade system [3] - The Ministry of Commerce responds to the US's export control measures against Huawei's Ascend chips, indicating that these actions severely damage the legitimate rights of Chinese companies and threaten the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [3] - The Ministry of Commerce addresses the issue of rare earth export controls, stating that there is no further information available at this time, but will provide updates as necessary [4] Group 2 - The Supreme Court and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasize the need to combat false information and protect market order, stating that those who harm others' rights through false narratives will face legal consequences [9] - The CSRC announces new regulations requiring that funds raised by listed companies must be used specifically for their main business and not for permanent working capital or repaying bank loans [12] - The CSRC will strictly regulate changes in the use of raised funds and ensure that controlling shareholders do not occupy these funds, with penalties for unauthorized changes [13] Group 3 - The China Chemical Corporation's subsidiary is involved in a lawsuit regarding false statements related to securities, with claims for damages amounting to 5.147 billion yuan [14] - China Minmetals Corporation reports a 24.9% year-on-year decrease in new contract amounts for the first four months of 2025, with overseas contracts also declining by 7.7% [15] - The real estate industry is experiencing a contraction, with the top 30 real estate companies reporting a slight revenue decline of 0.083% year-on-year, with only 11 companies showing growth [27]

近日，金融信息服务企业万得（Wind）公布2024年环境、社会及治理（ESG）评级结果，大连重工 (002204)ESG评级从上一年的A级跃升至AA级，在5404家A股上市公司中处于领先水平。此次评级中， 大连重工的环境、社会、治理三项得分均远超同行业平均水平，ESG综合得分由7.30提升至8.21（10分 制），在561家机械行业企业中位列第四，五大上市重机企业中名列第一。 作为国家重机行业的大型重点骨干企业，大连重工近年来高度重视并持续推进ESG提升，从战略规划高 度统筹推进ESG发展，聚焦环境、社会、治理全面践行ESG理念。 环境层面，大连重工制定一系列内部管理制度，搭建环境管理体系，将加强环境管理、优化资源利用、 降低污染排放等行动融入日常经营工作中。2024年，公司环保投入额达742.7万元（未含固定资产投资 类），较上年同期增长72%。其通过新建污水处理站、升级改造VOCs治理设施等方式，实现对生产活 动中产生污废的有效管理，并获得大连市"无废工厂"称号。 据悉，Wind ESG评级在国内具有重要地位，是国内领先且具有广泛影响力的ESG评级体系之一。截至 2024年10月，它凭借26.59%的响应 ...

国内市场综述 量价齐升 震荡上扬 周三（5 月 14 日）大盘量价齐升，震荡上扬。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3403.95 点，上涨 0.86%；深成指 收于 10354.22 点，上涨 0.64%；科创 50 上涨 0.41%； 创业板指上涨 1.01%，万得全 A 成交额共 13499 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 25 个行业收涨，其 中非银金融、综合金融及交通运输涨幅较大，而国防 军工、机械及家电则跌幅居前。概念方面，保险精选、 离境退税及炒股软件等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，英伟达涨超 4% 周三（5 月 14 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指跌 0.21%，标普 500 指数涨 0.1%，纳指涨 0.72%。 默克跌超 4%，安进跌逾 3%，领跌道指。万得美国科技 七巨头指数涨 1.57%，英伟达、特斯拉涨超 4%。中概 股多数上涨，腾讯音乐涨超 15%，大健云仓涨逾 5%。 新闻精要 1. 加快构建科技金融体制 中国七部门联合发布政策 举措 2. 4 月末中国社融规模存量 424.0万亿元，同比增 8.7% 3. 中方暂停 17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is experiencing revenue growth in 2024, but profitability has slightly declined, with total revenue reaching 24,389.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.47% to 1,291.17 billion yuan [2] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the mechanical industry's gross margin was 23.50%, down by 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 5.29%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points, primarily due to falling product prices and insufficient effective demand [2] - The inventory and accounts receivable turnover rates changed by +0.52% and -3.54% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in cash generation capacity, with operating cash flow as a percentage of revenue increasing by 0.41 percentage points [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor equipment, shipbuilding and offshore engineering, and usage equipment sectors showed high revenue growth in 2024, with year-on-year revenue growth rates of 32.90%, 23.08%, and 18.76% respectively, and net profit growth rates of 13.39%, 74.84%, and 4.17% [3] - For Q1 2025, these sectors are expected to maintain strong performance, with revenue growth rates of 38.60%, 164.08%, and 19.94% respectively, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [3] - The engineering machinery sector showed marginal improvement in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates of 10.29% and 31.52% respectively, an increase of 6.01 and 21.23 percentage points compared to Q1 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Huace Testing, Bochu Electronics, Yirui Technology, and others, focusing on value and forward-looking opportunities [4] - Long-term investment themes suggest focusing on emerging market growth and export acceleration, particularly in sectors like humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [5] - Attention is also drawn to supply-side factors, including stock updates and import substitution opportunities in sectors like shipbuilding and nuclear power equipment [6]

自《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》后，5月14日，跨境支付与航运板块行情作为直接受益的板块领涨两 市，多只个股涨停，千亿市值龙头个股也迎来大涨。 展望后市，多家公募认为，建议关注消费电子、机械和汽车零部件等出口链行业，这部分行业在4月初跌幅较 多，短时间内有望呈现补涨行情。除了国际动态以外，投资更需要"以我为主"，有公募指出，当前做多力量会 凝聚，以AI终端与应用为核心的产业趋势并未止步，科技等产业景气方向有望占优。 跨境概念大涨 5月14日，A股整体低开高走，午后跨境电商板块多股直线拉升。截至收盘，嘉诚国际、华贸物流、集泰股 份、跨境通等多股涨停，跨境支付方面，青岛金王成功走出2连板，浔兴股份涨幅超5%，小商品城、飞天诚 信、艾融软件等也纷纷跟涨。 此外，航运概念也领涨两市，国航远洋、华光源海收获30cm涨停，飞力达录得20cm涨停，收盘涨停的还有中 远海发、宁波海运、嘉诚国际、长久物流、中创物流等，而这已是航运股连续两日实现大涨。 除了前述两个直接受益的板块，"出口链"也是未来需要关注的重要方向，华夏基金认为，出海板块、外需占比 较高方向错杀，或迎补涨机会。 "上述板块对美国及海外市场依赖性高，在关税冲突面 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of tariffs on the technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Dynamics**: China's export to the U.S. is projected to decrease to 14.7% of total exports by 2024, a decline of 4.6 percentage points since 2018, although the absolute export value has slightly increased by 4.9% during the same period [2]. - **U.S. Import Trends**: The share of U.S. imports from China has decreased by 3.4% since 2018, with Mexico now being the largest importer to the U.S. In absolute terms, U.S. imports from China are expected to be $438.9 billion in 2024, down 18.5% from 2018 [4]. - **Tariff Agreements**: The new Geneva tariff agreement provides a temporary buffer for U.S.-China trade, alleviating some immediate pressures from tariff increases [5]. - **U.S. Economic Challenges**: The U.S. economy faces multiple pressures, including supply chain disruptions, weakening demand, inflation, and recession fears, with a significant amount of national debt maturing soon [6][7]. - **Federal Reserve's Position**: The Federal Reserve may adopt a dovish stance in upcoming meetings, potentially considering interest rate cuts to address economic challenges and manage debt issuance costs [8][9]. - **Market Reactions**: A temporary easing of trade tensions may catalyze a rebound in U.S. stock markets, although the long-term outlook remains bearish due to ongoing economic cycles [11]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Technology and AI**: The AI sector is experiencing cost reductions due to the ongoing Moore's Law, despite tariff pressures increasing cross-border hardware costs. Companies are shifting from one-time hardware investments to subscription models to manage costs [3][16]. - **Communication Industry**: The latest tariff situation has improved marginally for the communication sector, with a focus on high-quality domestic production and self-sufficiency as long-term investment themes [20]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key sectors to watch include core safety assets (transportation, finance), technology innovation (computers, electronics), and consumer themes, particularly in light of improving U.S.-China relations [13]. Additional Important Content - **Long-term Trends**: The trend towards domestic production and self-sufficiency in technology is expected to continue, with specific targets set for 2027 [18]. - **AI and Semiconductor Impact**: U.S. export restrictions on AI chips are likely to significantly impact China's semiconductor industry, particularly in high-end markets [27]. - **Opportunities in Electronics**: The electronics sector is seeing potential recovery, especially for companies involved in the supply chain for consumer electronics [28]. - **Mechanical Industry Outlook**: The mechanical sector is advised to focus on companies that can adapt to changing application scenarios and capitalize on domestic demand recovery [35]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries.